PROGRESS TOWARD
CREATING A NATIONAL
TPO PROGRAM
John Coulston
2015 National FIA User Group Meeting
April 1-2, San Antonio TX
Previous FIA User Group
Recommendations
• 2013: The group liked what the TPO program is doing in
the South and would like to see other regions enhance
their TPO survey efforts to be more in line with the South.
Previous FIA User Group
Recommendations
• 2014: Continue to annualize and nationalize the Timber
Product Output program: The TPO program should use
sampling techniques to ensure that all types of wood
using facilities are represented and sampled.
Assigned Discussion Topics
1. Moving from periodic complete
enumeration to annual sampling
2. How to better combine TPO and FIA data
3. Ideas for improving the TPO program
data base
Discussion Topic 1. Moving from periodic
complete enumeration to annual sampling
• Motivation
• Currently FIA performs a census of pulpwood mills
annually
• Census of other wood using facilities done every two
years
• Biennial census leads to some inefficiency
• Loss of key contacts and corporate knowledge
• Non-response varies by census
• Increasing trend in non-response
• An annual sample-based approach may alleviate some
of these issues.
Discussion Topic 1. Moving from periodic
complete enumeration to annual sampling
• User group recommendation was to examine sampling
alternatives such as sampling proportional to size (PPS).
• Also maintain annual ‘population’ list of wood using
facilities.
• Suggest a plan for non-response is also needed
Discussion Topic 1. Moving from periodic
complete enumeration to annual sampling
• Proposed PPS approach is similar to other efforts. For
example,
• Economic Census of Manufacturing (ECM) develops a sampling
frame from Census Bureau's Business Register every five years
• Both the Annual Survey of Manufactures and the Manufacturing
Energy Consumption Survey sample the ECM frame annual.
• Currently the Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey uses a
stratified sampling approach where selection probabilities are
proportional to size.
• Discussions with these groups would be informative
Discussion Topic 1. Moving from periodic
complete enumeration to annual sampling
• Before jumping into sampling we have the opportunity to
evaluate TPO information needs and design survey
appropriately for those needs.
• What are the current and potential future informational needs of
partners, clients, and stake holders?
• How are these needs similar or different from the information
currently provided by TPO?
• What are the relevant/needed spatial scales of the information
(Region, State, sub-State)?
Discussion Topic 2. How to better
combine TPO and FIA data
• Current
• Regional variation is how TPO data and FIA data are combined.
• In the east, where FIA removals are available, the plot data are
used to parse total harvest into:
• Total products
• Logging residue
• Other removals
• FIA and TPO data are also combined for analysis: e.g. wood basket
analysis, supply demand, etc.
• See presentation by Todd Morgan (2014 User Group meeting) for
additional examples.
Discussion Topic 2. How to better
combine TPO and FIA data
Future opportunities:
• From FIA data we have removal information by
• Location (State, county), species, size class, type of harvest (SRS),
approximate removal year.
• From TPO we have removal -> product information by
• State/County of origin, species, year
• What are the opportunities to combine the data in the
estimation process?
• Model assisted estimators at broader-scales?
• Model dependent estimators at finer-scales?
• These questions should be addressed along with the
sample design issue.
Ideas for improving the TPO program data
base
Ideas for improving the TPO program data
base
• Core tables
Ideas for improving the TPO program data
base
• Need to move past core tables
• Improvements of the database and analytical option are
dependent on information needs.
• Analytical needs may required adding ancillary data to the
database (e.g. socio economic data)
• Further need to proceed with caution so that
confidentiality is maintained.
• Spatial?
Some Examples
Availability
Mill load
Survey Unit
Mill load on forest
Volume (cuft/ac)
0-8
9 - 16
17 - 24
25 - 32
33 - 40
41 - 48
49 - 56
57 - 64
65 - 72
Moving forward:
• This is an opportunity to re-design TPO efforts based on current
and potential future information needs.
• Start with information needs
• Identify appropriate sampling design and estimators to meet those
needs
• Develop analytical framework for online data delivery and analysis
• We will host a workshop with key partners to evaluate information
and analytical needs against TPO program available information
and provide recommendations for TPO data.
• Target late summer
• Would like to hear from “partners” regarding interest.
• But…. Normal production (mill survey, utilization) must continue
while moving forward
“And” items
• Harvested Wood Products carbon storage and stock change.
• Key retirement at Forest Products Center.
• National group will continue the HWP work started by Ken Skog
• Timber availability and harvest probability modeling
• Continued Collaboration with (SOFAC-NCSU, CenRADS-VA Tech,
USFS RPA scientists)
• Land use change and population dynamics are an important
component.
• Non-timber forest product survey (Led by Jim Chamberlain
SRS-FIA)
• Continue to work with volume/biomass equation team and
university partners.
• Utilization and logging equipment