“Crisis of Democracy?
What Crisis?”
Wolfgang Merkel
Cologne
May 18 2015
Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
Content
1. Democracy as a contested concept
2. Crisis as an undefined concept
3. Crisis theories of democracy
4. 3 Research strategies: testing the „concept“?
 Experts
 Demos
 Analyses
5. Crisis? What Crisis?
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Three Concepts of Democracy
 Minimalists: Schumpeter, Dahl, Przeworski
 Mid-Range: Freedom House, Diamond, Habermas
(Merkel: Embedded democracy), (Pateman, Barber:
Restriction to input)
 Maximalists: Heller, Meyer, Latin American democratic
theory: > social democracy
Input and Output
 Hypothesis: The more minimalist, the less crisis and vice versa
 Choice of concept determines the answer to the crisis question
 Minimalist concepts are analytically inappropriate for the crisis
question
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„Embedded Democracy“ – internal and external challenges
Socio-economic
Heterogeneity
C
Inequality
B
Political Rights
Civil Rights
(de jure; in use)
Freedom: challenged?
Fairness: obsolete?
Minorities: protected?
Participation: selective?
Representation: gap?
Parties: decline?
A
Electoral Reg
Decline of parliaments?
Dominance of the Executive?
Money?
PR campaigns?
Inequality?
Loss of ext & int Souvereignty?
Illegitimate decision makers?
Horizontal
Accountability
Europeanization
D
Effective Power to
Govern
E
Globalisation
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Two Meanings of Crisis I
1. Acute crisis: Death or life?
 Crossroad
 Fundamental decisions/medicine are required
 Existential threat
Examples:
Italy 1920-1922
Weimar 1930-1933
Spain 1933-1936/9
Greece 1965-67
Chile 1970-1973
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Two Meanings of Crisis II
2. Latent crisis: Slow decline, erosion
 Unfulfilled normative promises of democracy
 Erosion: Worsening of quality, chronic diseases
 Diminished subtype: Defective, illiberal, exclusive democracies,
but no collapse/regime transition
 Threshold question not resolved!
Hypotheses:
 If Type I, the smaller the crisis sample (clearer defined)
 If Type II, the bigger the crisis sample (and less defined)
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What should Crisis Theories explain?
Defining properties of a Crisis
Necessary and sufficient conditions
Threshold question
Causes and effects
An analytical concept embedded in theory
has to cover Pt. 1-3 and allow for analyses
of Pt. 4
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Habermas (1973): Legitmation Crisis
Economic
crisis
-contradict.
Rationality
crisis
Economic
- bus.cycles
steering
problem
Motivational
crisis
- Mass
Support to the
normative
order of
democr. and to
work ethic is
withering away
Inability
-administrat.political
system
-ec.growth
Legitimation
crisis
--Welfare
State
withdrawal of
support from
“formal
to cope
democracy”
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Trilateral Commission (1975): The Overload Hypothesis
1. Delegitimation of Authority:
Pursuit of equality and individualism led to a delegitimation of authority, a loss of
trust in leadership and a weakening of social bonds.
2. Overloading of Government:
Expansion of participation, increasing expectations: overload on
government.
3. Disaggregation of Interests:
Intensified political competition > disaggregation of interests > decline and
fragmentation of political parties.
–
–
–
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Crouch (2004): Postdemocracy
Decline of pol. participation
Imbalance between capital and labour
Erosion of the welfare state
Disempowering the state (privatization,
outsourcing..)
– Competent private firms – incompetent
governments
– Commodification of social relations
– Negative freedom prevail over positive freedom
Democratic moment in the past as standard for
comparison
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What do crises theories don`t tell us:
A Critique
Critique:
 No clear concept of democracy
 Democracy as an institutional black box (var of dem)
 No clear definitions of crisis properties
 No definition of thresholds
 How to deal with simultaneuous pos & neg
developments?
 Trend to monocausality: although causal hypotheses
are the strongest part
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Three Levels of Analysis
1. What do the people think: Legitimacy Beliefs
(Surveys)
2. What do the experts think: Normative standards
(Indices)
3. How are the democratic functions fulfilled within
the 5 partial regimes: (partial analyses)
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Quality of Democracy in 30 „best democracies“ (1990-2012)
Own figure based on Democracy Barometer
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Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
5 Partial Regime as Units of Analysis
 Electoral Regime: Who votes?
Decline; increase of social selectivity
 Political Rights: Who is represented?
inequal substantial representation (class); better representation
of minorities; better descriptive representation of women.
 Civil Rights: Who is protected?
better protection of minority rights; trade off between freedom
rights and security needs
 Horizontal Accountability: Who controls?
Parliaments of loser of globalization & Europianization
 Power to Govern: Who governs?
Loss of state power to markets; loss of nat. govt to supranat.
Org, & regimes
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Decline of Catch-all Parties in Western Europe, 1958-2012
70
65
60
55
50
45
since 1958
20
2010
12
20
05
20
00
19
95
19
90
19
85
19
80
19
75
19
70
19
65
19
1958
60
40
since 1977
Note: The figure shows yearly country-means for the concentration of votes on catch-all parties in Western Europe. The time-series starting in 1958
does not include Greece, Portugal, and Spain. The time-series starting in 1977, however, does. Luxembourg and Malta are excluded.
Source: Database „Elections, Parties, Governments“ of the Research Unit „Democracy“ at the Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB),
21.06.2012; my figure.
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RESULTS
 In regimes 1-3: pos & neg results
 Regimes 4 & 5: mostly negative trends
Analytical Problem: how do we discount these
different pos & neg trends?
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Conclusion I
1. Experts & Indices: No crisis of democracy
2. Demos-Surveys: No crisis of dem, but of certain institutions
3. Threshold question theoretically not solved: surveys and
indices do not signal a beginning of crisis
4. Dissimultaneity: decline & improvement of dem. institutions
(women, minorities vs class)
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CONCLUSION 2
However:
 Shifting axes of legitimacy
 From majorit. Institutions to non-majorit. Institutions:
permissive consensus of the people
 Partcipation and parliaments in decline
 Strong trend towards a 50% Demos:oligarchisation
 „People do not bother about decline of parliaments
 „The citizens“less critical than the „critical citizens
hypothesis“ assumes
 Schloars: Erosion of Repr. Dem! People: Good so!
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Conclusion 3
Can dem innovations help?




Referenda?
Deliberative Democracy?
Digital Democracy?
More Europe and supranational Governance?
 Perspective: Two-Third-Democracy
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Appendix
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Quality of Democracy - Decline?
Own figure based on Democracy Barometer