Transition to Democracy
High points of institutional change
Why did Gorbachov fail?
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Tried to carry out polit reform before econ.
Nationalities problem
democratising factories irrelevant
didn’t appoint cronies
tried to reform from below, not above
Too much glasnost, not enough perestroika
couldn’t abolish party privilege
Was communism reformable?
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China
Yugoslavia
Vietnam
was it communism or Russia that was the
problem
• Authoritarianism very successful in
S.E.Asia
What would reformed
communism have looked like?
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Single party plus market economy
“guided democracy” [prob. Gorby’s aim]
Revisionist vision
Eurocommunist vision
if it’s multi-party can it be communist?
Don’t confuse Stalinism with communism
Change
• “ the revolution occurs when the ruled no
longer wish to continue in the old way and
the rulers no longer can continue in the old
way” Lenin
• “if not us, who? If not now, when?”
Gorbachov
What happened?
• Poland: Solidarity and Lech Walesa
• Czechoslovakia: the velvet revolution and
Vlaclav Havel
• USSR: Yeltsin’s coup and the dissolution of
the USSR
• Elswhere: was it really the KGB? Or was
there really popular revolution?
Why did it happen?
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Debt
Moscow lost interest
Peace movement
Telecommunications/ TV
Gorbachov really wanted change from
below and encouraged dissent
• collapse of colonial government?
• Desire for western consumerism
USSR-failure of guided
democracy
• June 1988: 19th CPSU congress.
Gorbachov announces new parliaments and
contested elections.
• March 1989 elections to Congress of
People’s Deputies
• Popov forms Inter-regional Deputies group
• popular fronts formed in republics
USSR- failure of federalism
• Jan 1990 CPSU begins to factionalise
• Mar 1990 Lithuania declares independence
and Estonia suspends constitution
• May 1990 Latvia declares independence.
Yeltsin elected head of Russian parliament
• July 1990 Yeltsin resigns from CPSU
• Feb 1991 referendum on Union
• August hardline coup. Yeltsin countercoup
The end of the USSR
• Sept- Nov negotiations for new Union
Treaty fail
• December Ukraine votes for independence
in referendum
• Yeltsin meets with Belarus and Ukraine
[Kravchuk] presidents. Commonwealth of
Independent States set up
• 25 Dec Gorbachov resigns as president. 31
Dec USSR ceases to exist
What is Democracy?
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Regular, contested elections
Alternation of Governments
Rule of Law
freedoms: speech, association press, etc.
pluralism/polycentrism/civil society
privacy
What sort of democracy?
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Participative
People’s Democracy
Representative
Liberal
Free market?
Eurocommunist?
Totalitarian /Rousseau-style General will
Fabian one-party
Models of Democracy
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British
American
French
Asian
Islamic
Variables
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Electoral system and party system
monarchy or republic
uni- or bi-cameral
fusion of executive and legislature
separation of powers
President and prime minister: 4th or 5th Rep
ministers in or out of Assembly
Choosing a system 1: legislature
and executive
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Presidential or parliamentary?
British model?
US model?
French 4th Republic?
French 5th Republic?
Other European?
Asian?
Choosing 2: electoral system
• PR or first past the post?
• Constituency size: whole country, German
model or multi-member?
• Qualification for representation: what
proportion of electorate?
• How do we want to fix the result? CPs
thought single-member constituencies
would benefit them. Turned out differently.
Choosing 3: Presidents
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Direct or indirect election?
How much power?
Relationship with Prime Minister
Can Prexy dissolve Assembly?
Electoral systems
• Poland 1989:
• Sejm single-member, 1st past post, but
173/460 reserved for communists,126 for
allies, 161 open contest.
• Senate 100 seats open contest, multimember
constituencies, majority vote. Solidarity
won 99.
Electoral systems 2: Bulgaria and
Albania
• Bulgaria June 1990: 400 deputies, 200 by
party list PR, 4% threshold. Communists
won 75 with 47.1%
• 200 by single-member, Communists won
114
• Albania all 250 single-member.
Communists won 169
Hungary 1990
• 386 deputies, 176 in single-member
constituencies, but with complex rules.
Communists won 1 seat.
• 210 party-list PR, with 4% threshold. 152 in
districts, 58 at national level. Communists
won 10.9% and 14 seats at district level.
Czechoslovakia 1990
• Pr with 5% threshold. Communists second
largest party in Czech [13%] and third in
Slovak [14%]areas.
• Civic Forum largest: 53% of votes; 68/101
seats in Czech areas.
• Public Against Violence 33% in Slovakia,
Xn Dems 19%
Romania 1990
• PR no threshold 1990, 3% 1992
• National Salvation Front won 66.3% and
263 seats in 1990
• 1992 as Democratic National Salvation
Front, they won 28.3% in Senate and 27.7%
in Assembly
Russia 1993
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LDPR 22.92% 59 seats plus 5 constits
Russia’s choice 15.51% 40 seats plus 30
CPRF 12.4% 32 seats plus 16
Women of Russia 8.13 21 seats plus 2
Agrarian 7.99 21 seats plus 12
Yabloko 7.86% 20 seats plus 3
Others 20% 32 seats plus 10
141 independents in constituency seats