Edge Research Conference
14th November 2014
#EdgeResearchConference
Edge Foundation
Research Conference
14 November 2014
Birmingham
Małgorzata Kuczera
Adult Learning and Skills Review
What is its objective?
Help countries to advance and develop policies on adult skills
How will it be done?
 Analysis of data from the Survey of Adult Skills
 Comparative analysis of the low-skilled in different countries (in
preparation)
 A survey on policies on adult learning across countries
 Information and analysis on adult skills and adult learning in
countries, gathered from the background material and during
missions
What are the countries taking part in the study?
The US, England, Finland, Australia
Adult Learning and Skills Review
How many adults with low skills?
Low numeracy
Low literacy and numeracy
Low literacy
England, 10 million people with low skills
Australia
Czech Republic
Finland
Germany
United States
Adult Learning and Skills Review
Who are the low-skilled?
In some countries many low-skilled are relatively young
Percentage of 16-65 year-olds with low skills by age
60
50
%
40
30
20
10
0
16-24 year-olds
25-34 year-olds
35-44 year-olds
Adult Learning and Skills Review
Who are the low-skilled?
What would happen to the age structure if we excluded first generation
immigrants?
Percentage of 16-65 year-olds with low skills by age, excluding 1st generation migrants
60
50
%
40
30
20
10
0
16-24 year-olds
25-34 year-olds
35-44 year-olds
Adult Learning and Skills Review
Who are the low-skilled?
Adults with less education have lower skills
Percentage of 16-65 year-olds with low skills by the highest qualification
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
below upper-secondary
upper-secondary and short post secondary
tertiary
foreign qualifications
Adult Learning and Skills Review
Who are the low-skilled?
Many low-skilled men are in the labour force and many lowskilled women are outside the labour market
Percentage of 16-65 year-olds with low skills by labour market status
60
70
60
MEN
WOMEN
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
Korea
Japan
Canada
Australia
United States
Germany
Netherlands
Austria
Norway
Flanders (Belgium)
England
Italy
Estonia
Sweden
Denmark
France
Poland
Czech Republic
Northern Ireland
Ireland
Finland
Spain
Slovak Republic
50
unemployed
inactive and in education
inactive and not in education
Estonia
Austria
Norway
Canada
United States
Germany
Japan
Korea
Netherlands
Denmark
Czech Republic
England
France
Finland
Australia
Flanders (Belgium)
Sweden
Northern Ireland
Poland
Spain
Ireland
Italy
Slovak Republic
70
unemployed
inactive and in education
inactive and not in education
Adult Learning and Skills Review
Who are the low-skilled?
A closer look at women outside the labour market
Low-skilled women aged 16-24 by their labour market situtation, as a percentage of all lowskilled women
25
20
%
15
10
5
0
16-24 low skilled women in labour force or inactive and in education
16-24 low skilled women inactive and not in education
Adult Learning and Skills Review
Where do they work?
Low-skilled are more often in jobs requiring low skills
Employment by type of occupation,
50
45
40
35
%
30
England
Germany
25
Finland
20
United States
Japan
15
10
5
0
high skilled occupations
white-collare semiskilled
blue-collar semi-skilled elementary occupations
Adult Learning and Skills Review
Low-skilled adults in education and training
Low-skilled employees receive less training on the job
On-the-job training by skills level, 16-65 year-olds
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
% of low skilled receiving on the job training
% of high skilled receiving on the job training
Adult Learning and Skills Review
Low-skilled adults in education and training
Range of education and training activities available to low-skilled
adults
% of low-skilled adults participating in various forms of education and training, 25-65 year-olds
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
formal education
open/distance education
courses (other than formal/open/distance education) and private lessons
Thank you!
www.oecd.org/education/VET
Edge Research Conference
14th November 2014
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Learning from the USA
Employer Ownership
of
skills and apprenticeship
Edge Conference 14 November 14
Hilary Chadwick
with thanks to the
Winston Churchill Memorial Trust
Overview
• Employer ownership and my role as insider
researcher
• The Winston Churchill Memorial Trust
• The questions:
– Why we don’t expect investment in skills by US firms – rational actor
theories and discourses of disdain
– Itinerary - what apprenticeship and skills programmes did I find?
– What are the key differences with the UK?
• What can we learn about employer ownership
from the US?
Edge Conference Nov14 Hilary Chadwick
16
Why we don’t expect investment
in skills by US firms –
theories and discourses
• US firms are rational profit-seeking actors in a liberal
market economy - unlike Germany’s coordinated
market economy (Varieties of capitalism)
• Firms will not get a return on investment in general
skills, so individuals and the state must invest to be
competitive (Human capital theory)
• Rational actors do not take collective action in the
interests of society (Tragedy of the commons) except in Germany?
Edge Conference Nov14 Hilary Chadwick
17
Itinerary
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Washington DC Office of Apprenticeships (registers & regulates
employers’ Apprenticeship programmes) and State-level
Workforce Investment Boards
California – city negotiates with construction unions to train to
retrofit LA city buildings
Kentucky – local county learning partnerships earn ‘work ready’
accolade to attract inward investment
S.Carolina - employer brokerage and tax credit system
Tennessee - Healthcare provider learns to deliver quality and
consistency to vast scale from other service industries
Toyota – raising standards of community college training to
support resurgence of manufacturing
German skills initiative – German manufacturing firms shape local
education provision to build youth apprenticeship programme
Edge Conference Nov14 Hilary Chadwick
18
Some key differences
• Employers propose the individual apprenticeship
programmes they want ‘registered’. Federal registration
not linked to public funds or qualifications but
design/delivery of a learning programme.
• States’ funding and (simple) tax credit systems for young
people’s training and adults focused on upskilling for
inward-investment and economic growth, not qualifications
• Individuals required to make own co-investment in
credentials via community college system and student
loans
• Term ‘apprenticeship’ often avoided as associated with
progression for adults working in unionised industries, not
school-to-work transition
Edge Conference Nov14 Hilary Chadwick
19
What can we learn from the US?
• Multi-national employers can raise standards
– encourage them to do so. Give smaller,
inexpert employers help to design and deliver
good programmes
• Develop incentives other than direct funding
• It doesn’t have to be over-engineered and
expensive: make it easier
• It’s all about work and competitiveness
Edge Conference Nov14 Hilary Chadwick
20
Sources
• Clips from the US
•
•
•
•
http://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/ApprenticeshipInnov-report1.pdf
http://www.mfrtech.com/news/486518/kentucky_labor_cabinet_joins_national_effort_to_support_regist
ered_apprenticeships.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/01/business/where-factory-apprenticeship-is-latest-model-fromgermany.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
http://www.apprenticeshipcarolina.com/contactus.html
• Winston Churchill Memorial Trust
•
http://www.wcmt.org.uk
• Academic sources
•
•
•
Becker, G. S. (1993). Human capital : a theoretical and empirical analysis, with special reference to
education. (3rd ed. ed.). Chicago ; London: The University of Chicago Press.
Hall, P. A. and Soskice, D. W. (2001). Varieties of capitalism : the institutional foundations of comparative
advantage. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Hardin, G. (1968). 'The Tragedy of the Commons'. Science 13, 162 (3859), 1243-1248.
Edge Conference Nov14 Hilary Chadwick
21
Edge Research Conference
14th November 2014
#EdgeResearchConference
Higher or Further?
David Harbourne
Director of Policy and Research
Edge Foundation
Vancouver Sun, 20 February 2013
Denise Deveau
The thought that a university
degree is the ticket to instant
career success is creating a
backlash in Canada. We have
more BAs than the market will
bear, a growing shortage of
practical skills, and an army of
kids burdened with huge
debt.
USA Today, 1 October 2014
MaryJo Webster
By 2017, an estimated 2.5
million new, middle-skill jobs
are expected to be added to
the workforce, accounting for
nearly 40% of all job growth.
These jobs require some
training but far less than a
bachelor’s degree.
Society’s push to get all young
people into four-year college
– what William Symonds*
calls the “one road to heaven”
approach – contributes to a
shortage of skilled workers.
*Global Pathways Institute,
Arizona State University
More from USA Today
An estimated 5.8 million Americans age 16 to 24 are not going to
school or working.
Disenfranchised high school kids drop out at the rate of 1 million
per year; most students who attend college quit without getting
diplomas; teen unemployment is skyrocketing; and many who
graduate from universities wind up burdened by debt and not
educated for the jobs they land.
Political science graduates working as barristas. Bio-chemists
selling cars. History majors looking for work. All across the
nation, Symonds says, people in their 20s are lost — struggling to
find careers that offer dignity, income, future.
The Dearing Report, 1997
“All over the world, higher education is
increasingly being seen as an essential
component of a knowledge-based
economy.”
“Higher education brings on average 20 per cent
higher earnings and a 50 per cent lower chance
of unemployment. It is time for an historic
commitment to open higher education to half of
all young people before they are 30, combined
with increased investment to maintain academic
standards.”
Labour party General Election Manifesto, 2001
Higher Education Initial Participation Rate
(HEIPR) for English domiciled first time
participants in UK Higher Education Courses
Academic year
ending
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
HEIPR %
42.5 43.6 45.6 46.2 46.3 49.5 43.0
Growth in HE has been uneven
% Increase in first degrees 2002-12
Humanities
Business/admin
Creative arts/design
Physical sciences
Engineering/technology
Computer science
0
20
40
60
80
100
First degree graduate destinations 2013 (HESA)
Unemployed
7%
Other
7%
Studying
12%
Nonprofessional
work (UK)
25%
Professional
and
managerial
work (UK)
49%
Graduates in the UK Labour
Market 2013
50%
47%
45%
40%
37%
34%
35%
30%
29%
25%
Graduated <5yrs
20%
Graduated >5yrs
15%
10%
5%
0%
Non-graduate jobs, 2001
Non-graduate jobs, 2013
30 months after graduating in 1995
• Graduate unemployment was virtually nonexistent
• 2 in 10 were in non-graduate jobs
• Debts were low
• Graduates were virtually guaranteed to earn
more than non-graduates
30 months after graduating in 2009
•
•
•
•
4 in 10 were in graduate-level jobs
> 3 in 10 were in non-graduate jobs
1 in 10 were unemployed
1 in 10 were in full-time study
• Other graduates were travelling, working or studying abroad,
or unavailable for work (eg caring for children)
Employment: selected degree subjects
Subject
Non-graduate jobs
Graduate jobs
Unemployed
Creative arts & design
37%
37%
14%
Law
36%
30%
14%
Linguistics and classics
34%
31%
14%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Engineering/
technologies
16%
57%
10%
Subjects allied to
medicine
13%
68%
5%
Medicine and dentistry
<1%
92%
2%
Proportion in non-graduate jobs 30
months after graduating: degree class
Non-graduate jobs (%)
50
40
30
20
10
0
1st
Upper 2nd Lower 2nd
Third
Graduate earnings fell between 2003
and 2011 – some more than others
% decline
All graduates
21.9%
Arts graduates
32.9%
Average earnings by discipline, 2011
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Medicine,
dentistry
Engineering,
technologies
Linguistics,
classics
Creative arts,
design
On average, degrees still bring wage
benefits – but so do Apprenticeships
Advanced Apprenticeship
Wage premium
Energy and water
29.3%
Manufacturing
26.4%
Transport & communication
21.8%
Public administration,
education and health
18.3%
Using data from the Labour Force Survey, 2004-10, the National Audit Office
compared (a) people who had completed an Advanced Apprenticeship with
(b) people with a level 2 qualification. They showed that Apprenticeships are
associated with a significant wage premium.
2010-20: the retirement bulge
Net growth in the number of jobs
1.5 million
Vacancies caused by people leaving
the labour market
13 million
Huge numbers will be needed in
some sectors of the economy
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
Replacement
Growth
(Thousands)
SET = science,
engineering
and technology
Professionals:
level 5 and
above
Technicians:
level 4
Skilled: level 3
Skills shortages vary by sector
% of vacancies caused by skill shortages, 2011
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Public
administration
Health and
social work
Skills shortages vary by occupation
% of vacancies caused by skill shortages, 2011
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Managers Professionals Associate
professionals
Skilled
trades
Admin and
clerical
Sales &
customer
service
Switzerland: low rates of 15-24
unemployment
Q2, 2014
18
16.7
16
14.9
13.1
14
13.4
12
10
8
7.7
Q2, 2014
6
4
2
0
Switzerland
USA
Canada
OECD
average
UK
Switzerland: more indicators of economic
strength
• Overall employment rate 79% (Q1, 2014): second highest in
OECD
• Job quality is well above OECD average:
– Earnings
– Labour market security
– Quality of the working environment
• Annual disposable household income ranks among the
highest in the OECD
Income (in)equality
• Gini coefficient of household disposable
income in 2010:
– Switzerland
– OECD average
– Canada
– UK
– USA
0.30
0.31
0.32
0.34
0.38
• Upper secondary education lasts between
three and five years
• Only a third of all young people choose to
follow a general upper secondary education,
and in 2012, only around 20% of all 19 year
olds held the general baccalaureate
• The other two-thirds choose vocational
options, with apprenticeships the most
popular option
But here’s the thing:
In Switzerland, progression from upper secondary VET
to PET is a clear and well-regulated pathway
Such good articulation helps to maintain the high status
of the vocational track
PET graduates can often compete for the same jobs as
graduates of universities and often come to fill senior
management positions
OECD
Switzerland
Tertiary A graduation rate
Tertiary B graduation rate
2000 12%
2000 14%
2008 32%
2008 19%
Much of this growth reflects the
reclassification of some professional colleges
as Universities of Applied Science
(Fachhochschulen)
Discussion
Edge Research Conference
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