Decision Technologies –
decision making in the
networked environment
Ömer S. Benli, Ph.D.
Internet
• Surveying the Digital Future: How the
PC and Internet Are Changing the
World
• To download or to view the UCLA Internet
Report: http://ccp.ucla.edu/pages/internetreport.asp
Sizing the Internet
http://www.cyveillance.com/web/downloads/Sizing_the_Internet.pdf
Heavy information overload
• the world's total yearly production of
print, film, optical, and magnetic content
would require roughly 1.5 billion
gigabytes of storage. This is the
equivalent of 250 megabytes per person
for each man, woman, and child on
earth.
http://www.sims.berkeley.edu/research/projects/how-much-info/
Worldwide information
production
(Economist Magazine, October, 2000)
Hard drive cost per gigabyte
http://www.sims.berkeley.edu/research/projects/how-much-info/charts/charts.html
Evolution of IT: the networked
environment
Networked environment
has
• increased the speed, and
• improved the accuracy
of information availability for decision
making.
Searching on the Internet
25 to 50 terabytes of information
http://www.press.umich.edu/jep/07-01/bergman.html
Deep WEB
7,500 terabytes of information
http://www.press.umich.edu/jep/07-01/bergman.html
“Web Services”: the next big
wave of technology
• software applications that can find, link with,
and talk to other applications over the
Internet, sharing information and performing
tasks without human intervention.
• “When web services reach their full potential,
they will change the way we do business.”
http://www.accenture.com/xdoc/en/ideas/outlook/7.2002/web.pdf
Decision Technologies
• provide means for analysis and
improvement of managerial decision
processes,
• Web-based ERP systems,
• publicly accessible Internet-based
optimizers and decision support systems.
How the nature of business
processes is affected
•
•
•
•
Contents
Delivery methods
Time spans
Organizational aspects
With just a Web browser and
no budget, anyone can
• do statistical computations at
StatPoint.com
• solve optimization problems at
NEOS Server for Optimization
• Use Web-based educational software
like
WebGPSS
Some examples
• MarketSwitch real-time ad and product
offer placement for Web advertisers and
e-commerce sites.
• OptiBid helps shippers conduct periodic
bid events with their transportation
providers to easily and quickly contract
for needed freight-hauling capacity and
service, at lower rates.
“Why the Decision Making in
the Digital Economy Needs
Decision Technologies”
•
•
•
•
•
Cope with the data deluge
Cope with complexity
Cope with uncertainty, manage risk
Experiment without risk to organization
Automate recurrent decisions
Geoffrion & Krishnan, OR in the E-Business Era
Speed of Computers
http://www.intel.com/research/silicon/mooreslaw.htm
Why total enumeration does
not work:
Curse of dimensionality!
A simple scheduling problem
50
JOBS
MACH 1
MACH 2
A simple scheduling problem
50
JOBS
MACH 1
[1]
[2]
MACH 2
…
[50]
A simple scheduling problem
50
JOBS
MACH 1
(50)
(49)
MACH 2
…
(1)
A simple scheduling problem
50
JOBS
MACH 1
(50)
(49)
MACH 2
…
50!  3 10
64
(1)
Consider a computer that can
execute 100 million
calculations per second:
(10 cal/sec)(3.2 10 sec/yr) = 3.2 10 cal/yr
8
7
15
With a computer that can
execute 100 million
calculations per second:
(10 cal/sec)(3.2 10 sec/yr) = 3.2 10 cal/yr
8
7
15
(3 10 )calc
15
(3.2 10 )calc/yr
64
With a computer that can
execute 100 million
calculations per second:
(10 cal/sec)(3.2 10 sec/yr) = 3.2 10 cal/yr
8
7
15
(3 10 )calc
49

10
years
15
(3.2 10 )calc/yr
64
With a computer that can
execute 100 million
calculations per second:
(10 cal/sec)(3.2 10 sec/yr) = 3.2 10 cal/yr
8
7
15
(3 10 )calc
49

10
years
15
(3.2 10 )calc/yr
64
or  10 centuries
47
About ten billion years ago,
the Universe began in a
gigantic explosion - the Hot
Big Bang!
http://www.damtp.cam.ac.uk/user/gr/public/bb_home.html
About ten billion years ago,
the Universe began in a
gigantic explosion - the Hot
Big Bang!
10 billion years = 1010 years
1049  (1010 )  (1010 )  (1010 )  (1010 )  (109 )
Fastest computer in the world:
NEC’s “Earth Simulator”
40 trillion = 40,000,000,000,000,000
operations/sec
http://www.nec.co.jp/press/en/0203/0801.html
With a computer that can
execute 40 trillion calculations
per second:
(4 10 calc/sec)(3.2 10 sec/yr) = 1.3 10 calc/yr
13
7
21
(3 10 )calc
43

10
years
21
(1.3 10 )calc/yr
64
or  10 centuries
41
Clearly the total enumeration
(brute force computing)
is not the answer!
• “Johnson’s Algorithm” solves this
problem optimally by sorting the
processing times in increasing order,
and assigning jobs according to a
simple rule.
Decision technologies
complement information
technologies in the design of
efficient and effective information
systems for managerial decision
making.