Chapter 19
Climate Change
and
Ozone Depletion
(we can get along!)
Mount Pinatubo erupts!
1991…
…the
Phillipines…
Figure 20-1
“The effects of the eruption were felt worldwide.
It ejected roughly 10 billion metric tonnes (10
cubic kilometres) of magma, and 20 million tons
of SO2, bringing vast quantities of minerals and
metals to the surface environment. It injected
large amounts of aerosols into the
stratosphere—more than any eruption since that
of Krakatoa in 1883. Over the following months,
the aerosols formed a global layer of sulfuric
acid haze. Global temperatures dropped by
about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F), and ozone depletion
temporarily increased substantially.” -Wikipedia
Core Case Study: Studying a Volcano
to Understand Climate Change
A
NASA scientist
correctly predicted
that the 1991
Philippines explosion
would cool the
average temperature
of the earth by 0.5Co
over a 15 month
period and then return
to normal by 1995.
Figure 20-1
Core Case Study: Studying a Volcano
to Understand Climate Change
 The
NASA climate change model was
correct.


The Mt. Pinatubo model prediction success
convince scientists and policy makers that
climate model projections should be taken
seriously.
Other climate models have shown that global
temperatures are likely to rise several degrees
during this century.
Chapter Overview Questions
 How
have the earth’s temperature and
climate changed in the past?
 How might the earth’s temperature and
climate change in the future?
 What factors influence the earth’s average
temperature?
 What are some possible beneficial and
harmful effects of a warmer earth?
Chapter Overview Questions (cont’d)
 How
can we slow projected increases in the
earth’s temperature or adapt to such
changes?
 How have human activities depleted ozone in
the stratosphere, and why should we care?
PAST CLIMATE AND THE
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
 Over
the past 900,000 years, the troposphere
has experienced prolonged periods of global
cooling and global warming.
 For
the past 1,000 years, temperatures have
remained fairly stable but began to rise
during the last century.
PAST CLIMATE AND THE
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
Figure 20-2
Average surface temperature (°C)
Average temperature over past 900,000 years
Thousands of years ago
Fig. 20-2a, p. 465
Average surface temperature (°C)
Average temperature over past 130 years
Year
Fig. 20-2b, p. 465
Temperature change (C°)
Temperature change over past 22,000 years
Agriculture established
End of
last ice
age
Average temperature over past
10,000 years = 15°C (59°F)
Years ago
Fig. 20-2c, p. 465
Temperature change (C°)
Temperature change over past 1,000 years
Year
Fig. 20-2d, p. 465
From website
“Logicalscience.
com”
How Do We Know What
Temperatures Were in the Past?
 Scientists
analyze
tiny air bubbles
trapped in ice cores
learn about past:




troposphere
composition.
temperature trends.
greenhouse gas
concentrations.
solar, snowfall, and
forest fire activity.
Figure 20-3
Ice Core Analysis
Ice Core Analysis
National Ice Core Laboratory
Ice Core Analysis
A “thin cut”
slice of an
ice core.
How Do We Know What
Temperatures Were in the Past?
 In
2005, an ice core
showed that CO2
levels in the
troposphere are the
highest they have
been in 650,000
years.
Figure 20-4
Carbon dioxide
280 ppm
in 1725
Temperature
End of
change
last ice age
Thousands of years before present
Variation of temperature (C°)
from current level
Concentration of carbon dioxide
in the atmosphere (ppm)
384 ppm
in 2007
Fig. 20-4, p. 466
The Natural Greenhouse Effect
 Four




major factors shape the earth’s climate:
The sun.
Greenhouse effect warms the earth’s lower
troposphere and surface because of the
presence of greenhouse gases.
Oceans store CO2 and heat, evaporate and
receive water, move stored heat to other parts of
the world.
Natural cooling process through water vapor in
the troposphere (heat rises).
• Evaporation cools the Earth’s surface
• Condensation in clouds releases heat in upper
troposphere
Major Greenhouse Gases
 The
major greenhouse gases in the lower
atmosphere are, IN ORDER:
1.
2.
3.
4.
water vapor- most important greenhouse gas
carbon dioxide- greatest effect from human
activities
Methane- CH4 -more powerful greenhouse gas
per molecule than CO2, but less of it than CO2
nitrous oxide- N2O -comes from fertilizers and
planting rice
Major Greenhouse Gases
 The
major greenhouse gases in the lower
atmosphere are:



water vapor
carbon dioxide
Methane
nitrous oxide.
These gases have always been present in the
earth’s troposphere in varying concentrations.
Fluctuations in these gases, plus changes in
solar output and Earth’s Mankelovich cycles are
the major factors causing the changes in
tropospheric temperature over the past 400,000
years.
Major Greenhouse
Gases
Increases in average
concentrations of three
greenhouse gases in the
troposphere between 1860
and 2004, mostly due to
 Fossil fuel burning (CO2 & CH4)
 Deforestation (CO2 & N2O)
 Agriculture (N2O)
Figure 20-5
384 ppm
in 2007
280 ppm
in 1725
Fig. 20-5a, p. 467
Fig. 20-5b, p. 467
Fig. 20-5c, p. 467
CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN
ACTIVITIES
 Evidence
that the earth’s troposphere is
warming:


The 20th century was the hottest century in the
past 1000 years.
The 10 hottest years since 1861 have been since
1990
CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN
ACTIVITIES

Since 1900, the earth’s average tropospheric
temperature has risen 0.6


C°.
Over the past 50 years, Arctic temperatures
have risen almost twice as fast as those in
the rest of the world.
Glaciers and floating sea ice are melting
and shrinking at increasing rates.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN
ACTIVITIES


Warmer temperatures in Alaska, Russia, and the
Arctic are melting permafrost, releasing more
CO2 and CH4 into the troposphere (feedback
loop)
During the last century, the world’s sea level rose
by 10-20 cm, mostly due to runoff from melting of
land-based ice and the expansion of ocean water
as temperatures rise.
The Scientific Consensus about
Future Climate Change
 There
is strong evidence that human
activities will play an important role in
changing the earth’s climate during this
century.

Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs)
couple, or combine, the effects of the
atmosphere and the oceans on climate.
Coupled General Circulation Model
of the Earth’s Climate
 Simplified
model of major
processes that
interact to
determine the
average
temperature
and greenhouse
gas content of
the
troposphere.
Figure 20-6
Factors that cool
Sun
Factors that warm
Troposphere
Greenhouse
gases
Aerosols
Warming
from
decrease
Cooling
from
increase
CO2 removal
by plants and
soil organisms
CO2 emissions
from land
cleaning, fires,
and decay
Heat and
CO2 removal
Heat and
CO2 emissions
Ice and snow cover
Shallow ocean
Land and soil biota
Long-term
storage
Natural and human emissions
Deep ocean
Stepped Art
Fig. 20-6, p. 469
Measured and projected changes in the
average temperature of the atmosphere (2005).
 ↑ 0.6 °C since
1900
 Consensus
projection is 5 °C
by 2100 if we “do
nothing”
 Consensus is 4 °C
could threaten
civilization as we
know it
Figure 20-7
Most recent data
suggests that
temperatures are
increasing even
faster than the
worst-case 2007
IPCC estimates
Fig. 20-7, p. 470
Why Should We Be Concerned about
a Warmer Earth?
A
rapid increase (non-linear response
pattern) in the temperature of the troposphere
during this century would give us little time to
deal with its harmful effects.
 As a prevention strategy scientists urge to cut
global CO2 emissions 50% over the next 50
years…. “50/50”

This could prevent changes in the earth’s climate
system that might last for tens of thousands of
years (due to many positive feedback loops)
FACTORS AFFECTING THE
EARTH’S TEMPERATURE
 Some
factors can amplify (positive feedback)
and some can dampen (negative feedback)
projected global warming.
 There is uncertainty about how much CO2
and heat the oceans can remove from the
troposphere and how long the heat and CO2
might remain there (feedback?)
 Warmer temperatures create more clouds
that could warm or cool the troposphere
(feedback?).
Human Effects on the Carbon Cycle
 Burning




fossil fuels for energy
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Transportation
 Clearing
forests for agriculture & forest
products
 Covering land with pavement
 Exponential population growth
Effects of Higher
CO2 Levels on Photosynthesis
 Increased
CO2 in the troposphere can
increase plant photosynthesis (PS) but:



The increase in PS would slow as the plants reach
maturity.
Carbon stored by the plants would be returned to
the atmosphere as CO2 when the plants die &
decay
Increased PS decreases the amount of carbon
stored in the soil.
FACTORS AFFECTING THE
EARTH’S TEMPERATURE
 Aerosol
and soot pollutants produced by
human activities can warm (SO4 aerosols) or
cool (soot particulates) the atmosphere, but
such effects will decrease with any decline in
outdoor air pollution.
 Warmer
air can release methane gas stored
in bogs, wetlands, and melting tundra soils
and accelerate global warming (feedback?).
EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING
A
warmer climate would have beneficial and
harmful effects but poor nations in the tropics
would suffer the most.
 Some
of the world’s floating ice and landbased glaciers are slowly melting and are
helping warm the troposphere by reflecting
less sunlight (“albedo”) back into space
(feedback?).
Fig. 19-5a, p. 501
Fig. 19-5b, p. 501
Sept. 1979
Sept. 2007
Russia
Russia
North
pole
North
pole Greenland
Greenland
Alaska (U.S.)
Alaska (U.S.)
Canada
Canada
Fig. 19-6, p. 501
Rising Sea Levels
 During
this century
rising seas levels
are projected to
flood low-lying urban
areas, coastal
estuaries, wetlands,
coral reefs, and
barrier islands and
beaches (effects?)
Next
Mean Sea-Level Rises (centimeters)
High Projection
New Orleans,
Shanghai, and
other low-lying
cities largely
underwater
35 inches
Medium
Projection
More than a third of
U.S. wetlands underwater
4 inches
Low Projection
Year
IPCC (2000) Projections “very likely” (90-99% confidence level)
Fig. 20-10, p. 475
Rising Sea Levels
 Changes
in average sea level over the past
250,000 years based on data from ocean
cores.
Figure 20-9
Rising Sea Levels
 If
seas levels
rise by 9-88cm
during this
century, most of
the Maldives
islands and their
coral reefs will
be flooded.
Figure 20-11
Warm, shallow
current
Cold, salty,
deep current
Fig. 20-12, p. 476
Changing Ocean Currents
It has recently been shown
that the potential shifting of
ocean currents is less of a
threat than we thought before.
 Global
warming could alter ocean currents
and cause both excessive warming and
severe cooling.
Next
EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING
 Oceans
remove 25-30% of tropospheric CO2
warmer troposphere can decrease the
ability of the ocean to remove and store CO2
by
A

decreasing the nutrient supply for calcareous
phytoplankton that store CO2 in their calcium
carbonate (CaCO3) shells, by potentially
disrupting wind and ocean currents that provide
nutrients via upwelling (feedback?)
EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING
 Increasing
the acidity of ocean water:
• CO2 is dissolved in the ocean as carbonic
acid, H2CO3
• increased acidity interferes with calcareous
phytoplankton shell formation
• Increased acidity dissolves existing deposits of
CaCO3 (feedback?)
 CO2
is less soluble in warmer water
(feedback?)
EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING
 Global
warming will lead to prolonged heat
waves and droughts in some areas (Africa,
Asia, & Western USA) and prolonged heavy
rains and increased flooding in other areas
(Europe; more intense hurricanes and
typhoons).
 Between
1979 & 2002, the area of
Earth’s land experiencing severe
drought increased between 15% and
30%
Effects on Biodiversity:
Winners and Losers
 Possible
effects of
global warming on
the geographic
range of beech
trees based on
ecological evidence
and computer
models.
Next
Beech
Future
range
Overlap
Present
range
Fig. 20-13, p. 478
EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING
 In
a warmer world, agricultural productivity
may increase in some areas (Canada &
Russia) and decrease in others (Asia &
Africa)….why?
 Crop and fish production in some areas could
be reduced by rising sea levels that would
flood river deltas (why?).
 Global warming will increase deaths from:



Heat and disruption of food supply.
Spread of tropical diseases to temperate regions.
Increase the number of environmental refugees.
DEALING WITH GLOBAL WARMING
 Climate
change is such a difficult problem to
deal with because:





The problem is global.
The effects will last a long time.
The problem is a long-term political issue.
The harmful and beneficial impacts of climate
change are not spread evenly.
Many actions that might reduce the threat are
controversial because they can impact
economies and lifestyles.
DEALING WITH GLOBAL WARMING
 Two


ways to deal with global warming:
Mitigation that reduces greenhouse gas
emissions.
Adaptation, where we recognize that some
warming is unavoidable and devise strategies to
reduce its harmful effects.
Adaptation Strategies
Develop crops that
need less water
Waste less water
Connect wildlife
reserves with corridors
Move hazardous material
storage tanks away
from coast
Move people away
from low-lying
coastal areas
Stockpile 1- to 5-year
supply of key foods
Prohibit new construction
on low-lying coastal areas
or build houses on stilts
Expand existing
wildlife reserves
toward poles
(why?)
Fig. 20-17, p. 485
Solutions
Global Warming
Prevention
Cut fossil fuel use (especially
coal)
Shift from coal to
natural gas
Cleanup
Remove CO2 from smoke stack
and vehicle emissions
Store (sequester)
CO2 by planting trees
Improve energy efficiency
Shift to renewable energy
resources
Transfer energy efficiency and
renewable energy technologies
to developing countries
Reduce deforestation
Use more sustainable
agriculture and forestry
Limit urban sprawl
Reduce poverty
Sequester CO2 deep underground
Sequester CO2 in soil by using
no-till cultivation
and taking cropland out
of production
Sequester CO2 in the deep ocean
Repair leaky natural gas pipelines
and facilities
Use animal feeds that reduce CH4
emissions by belching cows
Slow population growth
Fig. 20-14, p. 481
Solutions: Reducing the Threat
 We



can
improve energy efficiency
rely more on carbon-free renewable energy
resources
find ways to keep much of the CO2 we produce
out of the troposphere (Carbon Capture &
Sequestration a.k.a. CCS)
Removing and Storing CO2
 Methods
for
removing CO2
from the
atmosphere or
from
smokestacks and
storing
(sequestering) it.
Figure 20-15
Spent oil reservoir is
used for Crop field
Oil rig
Tanker delivers
CO2 from plant
to rig
CO2 is pumped
down from rig
for deep ocean
disposal
Coal
power
plant
Abandoned
oil field
Tree plantation
Switchgrass
Crop field
CO2 deposit CO2 is
pumped down to
reservoir through
abandoned oil field
Spent oil reservoir is
used for CO2 deposit
= CO2 pumping
= CO2 deposit
Fig. 20-15, p. 482
Problems with CCS
 Unproven
technology
 Promotes continued use of fossil fuels
 Requires huge government subsidies
that draw funds from other solutions
 There can be no leaks for any reason
DEALING WITH GLOBAL WARMING
 Governments



can
tax greenhouse gas emissions and/or carbonbased energy use
increase subsidies and tax breaks for saving
energy
decrease subsidies and tax breaks for fossil
fuels.
DEALING WITH GLOBAL WARMING
A
crash program to slow and adapt to climate
change now is very likely to cost less than
waiting and having to deal with its harmful
effects later (see below).
 “An
ounce of prevention is worth a pound of
cure”
WHAT IS BEING DONE TO REDUCE
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS?
 Getting
countries to agree on reducing their
greenhouse emissions is difficult.
 But…A
2006 poll showed that 83% of
Americans want more leadership from federal
government on dealing with global warming.
International Climate Negotiations:
The Kyoto Protocol (1997)



Treaty on global warming which first phase went
into effect January, 2005 with 189 countries
participating.
It requires 38 participating developed countries to
cut their emissions of CO2, CH4, and N2O to
5.2% below their 1990 levels by 2012.
Developing countries were excluded.
• The U.S. and Australia did not sign, but California
(world’s 6th largest economy) and Maine are
participating.
• U.S. did not sign because developing countries such
as China, India and Brazil were excluded.
Moving Beyond the Kyoto Protocol
 Countries
could work together to develop a
new international approach to slowing global
warming (much has changed since 1997)

The Kyoto Protocol will have little effect on future
global warming without support and action by the
U.S., China, and India.
 December
7-18, 2009: Copenhagen Climate
Change Conference
Actions by Some Countries, States,
and Businesses
 In
2005, the EU proposed a plan to reduce
CO2 levels by 1/3rd by 2020.
 Global companies (BP, IBM, Toyota) have
established targets to reduce their
greenhouse emissions to 10-65% below
1990 levels by 2010.
Actions by Some Countries, States,
and Businesses
 California
has adopted a goal of reducing its
greenhouse gas emission to 1990 levels by
2020, and 80% below by 2050.
 The
US EPA refused California’s request to
set tough new standards(!)
Actions by Some Countries, States,
and Businesses
spent $20 million to lower it’s greenhouse
gas emissions to 10% below 1990 levels.
 BP

Took 3 years, from 1998 to 2001

Saved $250 million
What Can You Do?
Reducing CO2 Emissions
• Drive a fuel-efficient car, walk, bike, carpool,
and use mass transit
• Use energy-efficient windows
• Use energy-efficient appliances and lights
• Heavily insulate your house and seal all drafts
• Reduce garbage by recycling and reuse (why?)
• Insulate your hot water heater
• Use compact fluorescent bulbs
• Plant trees to shade your house during summer
• Set water heater no higher than 49°C (120°F)
• Wash laundry in warm or cold water
• Use low-flow shower head
• Buy products from companies that are trying to reduce
their impact on climate
• Demand that the government make climate
change an urgent priority
Fig. 20-16, p. 485
OZONE DEPLETION IN THE
STRATOSPHERE
 During
four
months of each
year up to half of
the ozone in the
stratosphere over
Antarctica and a
smaller amount
over the Arctic is
depleted.
Figure 20-19
OZONE DEPLETION IN THE
STRATOSPHERE
 Less
ozone in the stratosphere allows for
more harmful UV radiation to reach the
earth’s surface.



The ozone layer keeps about 95% of the sun’s
harmful UV radiation from reaching the earth’s
surface.
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) have lowered the
average concentrations of ozone in the
stratosphere.
In 1988 CFCs were no longer manufactured, due
to the Montreal Protocol
Ultraviolet light hits a chlorofluorocarbon
(CFC) molecule, such as CFCl3, breaking
off a chlorine atom and leaving CFCl2.
Once free, the chlorine
atom is off to attack
another ozone molecule
and begin the cycle again.
Sun
Cl
Cl
C
Cl
F
UV radiation
Cl
Cl
O
O
The chlorine atom attacks an
ozone (O3) molecule, pulling
an oxygen atom off it and
O
O O
leaving an oxygen
molecule (O2).
Cl
A free oxygen atom pulls
the oxygen atom off
the chlorine monoxide
Cl
molecule to form O2.
O
O
The chlorine atom and
the oxygen atom join to
form a chlorine monoxide
molecule (ClO).
Cl
O
O
Stepped Art
O
Fig. 20-18, p. 486
OZONE DEPLETION IN THE
STRATOSPHERE

Since 1976, in Antarctica, ozone levels have markedly
decreased during October and November.
Figure 20-20
OZONE DEPLETION IN THE
STRATOSPHERE
 Ozone
thinning: caused by CFCs and other
ozone depleting chemicals (ODCs).

Increased UV radiation reaching the earth’s
surface from ozone depletion in the stratosphere
is harmful to human health, crops, forests,
animals, and materials such as plastic and
paints.
Natural Capital Degradation
Effects of Ozone Depletion
Human Health
• Worse sunburn
• More eye cataracts
• More skin cancers
• Immune system suppression
Food and Forests
• Reduced yields for some crops
• Reduced seafood supplies from reduced phytoplankton
• Decreased forest productivity for UV-sensitive tree species
Wildlife
• Increased eye cataracts in some species
• Decreased population of aquatic species sensitive to UV radiation
• Reduced population of surface phytoplankton
• Disrupted aquatic food webs from reduced phytoplankton
Air Pollution and Materials
• Increased acid deposition
• Increased photochemical smog
• Degradation of outdoor paints and plastics
Fig. 20-21, p. 488
Global Warming
• Accelerated warming because of decreased ocean uptake of CO2 from
atmosphere by phytoplankton and CFCs acting as greenhouse gases
This long-wavelength
This shorter-wavelength (high-energy) form
(low-energy) form of UV
of UV radiation causes sunburn, premature
radiation causes aging of Ultraviolet
Ultraviolet aging, and wrinkling. It is largely responsible
A
the skin, tanning, and
for basal and squamous cell carcinomas
B
sometimes sunburn. It
and plays a role in malignant melanoma.
penetrates deeply and
may contribute to skin
cancer.
Thin layer of
dead cells
Squamous
cells
Basal layer
Hair
Epidermis
Sweat
gland
Melanocyte
cells
Dermis
Basal cell
Blood
vessels
Squamous Cell
Carcinoma
Basal Cell
Carcinoma
Melanoma
Fig. 20-22, p. 489
PROTECTING THE OZONE LAYER
 To
reduce ozone
depletion, we
must stop
producing all
ozone-depleting
chemicals.
Next
What Can You Do?
Reducing Exposure to UV Radiation
• Stay out of the sun, especially between 10 A.M. and 3 P.M.
• Do not use tanning parlors or sunlamps.
• When in the sun, wear protective clothing and sun–
glasses that protect against UV-A and UV-B radiation.
• Be aware that overcast skies do not protect you.
• Do not expose yourself to the sun if you are taking
antibiotics or birth control pills.
• Use a sunscreen with a protection factor of 15 or 30
anytime you are in the sun if you have light skin.
• Examine your skin and scalp at least once a month for
moles or warts that change in size, shape, or color or
sores that keep oozing, bleeding, and crusting over. If
you observe any of these signs, consult a doctor
immediately.
Fig. 20-23, p. 490
Updates Online
The latest references for topics covered in this section can be found at
the book companion website. Log in to the book’s e-resources page at
www.thomsonedu.com to access InfoTrac articles.






InfoTrac: Upset about offsets; Emissions offsets. The Economist
(US), August 5, 2006 v380 i8489 p53US.
InfoTrac: Geologist seeks answers in Valley's house-sized rocks.
Anchorage Daily News, August 2, 2006.
InfoTrac: Capital Pollution Solution? Jeff Goodell. The New York
Times Magazine, July 30, 2006 p34(L).
Union of Concerned Scientists: Human Fingerprints
Science Daily: Deep-sea Sediments Could Safely Store Manmade Carbon Dioxide
Discovery Channel: Global Warming
Video: Kyoto Protocol
 This
video clip is available in CNN Today
Videos for Environmental Science, 2004,
Volume VII. Instructors, contact your local
sales representative to order this volume,
while supplies last.
Video: Melting Glaciers
 This
video clip is available in CNN Today
Videos for Environmental Science, 2004,
Volume VII. Instructors, contact your local
sales representative to order this volume,
while supplies last.
Video: Global Warming
 This
video clip is available in CNN Today
Videos for Environmental Science, 2004,
Volume VII. Instructors, contact your local
sales representative to order this volume,
while supplies last.