Evaluating the Success of the
“Arab Awakening”
Tarek Shagosh  Faculty Collaborator: Patricia Turner, History Department
 University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire
Egypt
What is the Arab Awakening?
 The “Arab Awakening” is the recent trend of popular protest in the Middle East resulting in
the usurpation of several dictators, extensive political reform, and prolonged conflict.
 This poster will examine several possible vulnerabilities contributing to the uprisings listed by
Gelvin, Wright and Davies. Utilizing Charles Tilly’s theory on revolutions, we will determine
what type of domestic conflict three Arab protest movements resulted in as well as the role
of the vulnerabilities in their outcomes.
Contributing Vulnerabilities
 Food Crisis: Cut government subsidies resulted in
higher prices. There was also an increase in global
demand and decrease in production.
 Regime Weakness: Aging dictators and deteriorating
regimes had long oppressed their populations.
 Demography of the Arab World: 60% of the Arab World
is under the age of 30, many of whom are unemployed.
(Gelvin, 2012)
 Counter-Jihad: A collective rejection of the adopted
policies and methods fundamentalist Islamic
organizations in favor of pursuing Democracy as a more
favorable alternative to authoritarianism. (Wright, 2011)
 Began in January 2011 with a protest movement of the citizenry taking control of Tahir
Square in Cairo and rebuffing the aggressions of Mubarak loyalists.
 The military has long had a strong relationship with the regime, however they remained
neutral during the uprising, allowing the protests to unfold without interference..
 Since Mubarak stepped down, the military council has ruled over the daily affairs of Egypt,
butting heads with newly elected officials regarding the drafting of a new constitution,
Defining A Revolution:
Not all revolutionary situations result in revolutionary
outcomes, in where there has been a complete transfer of
power from one body of government to another. As the chart
illustrates, a coup or palace revolution is not a true revolution
as the regime remains intact. Other situations such as revolts
can deteriorate into violent conflicts where the opposition is
simply crushed. (Tilly, 1996)
 Protest movements in February 2011 were largely a surprise. Early
demonstrations were small and quickly broken up by security forces.
 Protests gained momentum when school children were
apprehended by the government and tortured in prison.
 Months of crackdowns led to military desertions and the formation of
the Syrian National Council, which is still opposing the regime today.
Syria
 Protests in March 2011 were largely peaceful to start with, but the
regime reacted with violence, ordering aircraft to fire on civilians.
 Mass military defections gathered in the rebel stronghold of
Benghazi, forming the National Transition Council.
 Loyalist forces attempted to crush the opposition. NATO
intervention on the side of the NTC gave the them the advantage.
 In Oct, 2011, Moammer Gaddafi was captured and killed outside of
Sirte, effectively ending his regime.
Libya
The J-Curve
 James Davies believed that any model for predicting
revolutions would include a reverse correlation between
the rising expectations of a society and a sharp reversal
in reality. His theory can explain the contributions the
vulnerabilities have made in producing revolutionary
situations in the region (Davies, 1962)
 Some of the vulnerabilities like a food shortage or high
youth unemployment contribute to the differential
between expectations and reality, where an increased
standard of living resulted in higher population growth,
but food supply and job creation didn’t keep up.
 Much of the high youth population is dissatisfied with
corrupt regimes and a lack of democratic institutions in
Charles Tilly defines a
the modern world, providing fuel for protest.
“revolutionary situation” as
possessing the following
characteristics:
1)The appearance of contenders
advancing competing claims to
control of the state.
2)Commitment to those claims by
a significant portion segment of
the citizenry.
3)An unwillingness or incapacity
of rulers to suppress the claims of
the opposing coalition. (Tilly,
1996)
Revolutionary
Situations
Conclusions:
Source: Wikipedia
 NOTE: The conclusions I have drawn are topical and any new development can dramatically
alter them. Egypt’s military or Assad could surrender power; Libya could fracture.
 Egypt: Top-down seizure of power. Although the protests began as a popular uprising,
the military remains in control, bringing the validity of any transfer in power into question until
they relinquish control.
 Syria: Revolt. The situation persists with two groups violently competing for power. Recent
support from the international community for the STC may yet lead to a regime change.
 Libya: Great Revolution. Control of the state has been completely transferred from the
Gaddafi regime to the NTC. Elections are planned for summer 2012.
 While food prices and demography have been instrumental to the formation of revolutionary
situations, the most important factor in a great revolution has been regime weakness,
where the government has failed to curb opposition and stay in power.
Cited References
Davies, James C. “Toward a Theory of Revolution.” American Sociological Review 27.1 (1962) 5-19. JSTOR, Web 3 April, 2012
Gelvin, James L. The Arab Uprisings: What Everyone Needs to Know. New York: Oxford UP, 2012. Print.
Goldstone, Jack A. "Understanding the Revolutions of 2011." Foreign Affairs 90.3 (2011): 8-16. Academic Search Complete. Web. 9 Apr. 2012.
Tilly, Charles. "Conflict, Revolt and Revolution." European Revolutions, 1492-1992. Oxford, UK: Blackwell, 1993. 2-18. Print.
Wright, Robin B. Rock the Casbah: Rage and Rebellion across the Islamic World. New York: Simon & Schuster, 2011. Print.
Acknowledgments
Source: yorku.ca
Thank you to Paula Hagen for her support and advice.
The printing of this poster was funded by Differential Tuition through the UW-EC Office of Research.