Inventory Management Inventory management A subsystem of logistics Inventory: a stock of materials or other goods to facilitate production or to satisfy customer demand Main decisions: Which items should be carried in stock? How much should be ordered? When should an order be placed? The need to hold stocks 1 Buffer between Supply and Demand To keep down production costs: to achieve low unit costs, production have to run as long as possible (setting up machines is tend to be costly) To take account of variable supply times: safety stock to cover delivery delays from suppliers To minimize buying costs associated with raising an order To accommodate variations (on the short run) in demand (to avoid stock-outs) To account for seasonal fluctuations: There are products popular only in peak times There are goods produced only at a certain time of the year Adaptation fo the fluctuation of demand with building up stocks DEMAND Inventory accumulation CAPACITY Inventory reduction The need to hold stocks 2 To take advantage of quantity discounts (buying in bulk) To allow for price fluctuations/speculation: to buy large quantities when a good is cheaper To help production and distribution operations run smoothly: to increase the independence of these activities To provide immediate service for customers To minimize production delays caused by lack of spare parts (for maintenance, breakdowns) Work-in-progress: facilitating production process by providing semi-finished stocks between different processes Types of Stock-holding/Inventory raw material, component and packaging stock in-process stocks (work-in-progress; WIP) finished products (finished goods inventory; FGI) pipeline stocks: held in the distribution chain general stores: contains a mixture of products to support spare parts: Consumables (nuts, bolts, etc.) Rotables and repairables Independent vs. dependent demand Independent demand: Influenced only by market conditions Independent from operations Example: finished goods Dependent demand: Related to the demand for another item Example: product components, raw material Another typology of stocks working stock: reflects the actual demand cycle stock: follows the production (or demand) cycles safety stock: to cover unexpected fluctuations in demand speculative stock: built up on expectations seasonal stock: goods stockpiled before peaks Inventory cost Item cost: the cost of buying or producing inventory items Ordering cost: does not depend on the number of items ordered. Form typing the order to transportation and receiving costs. Holding (carrying) cost: Capital cost: the opportunity cost of tying up capital Storage cost: space, insurance, tax Cost of obsolescence, deterioration and loss Sometimes designated by management rather than computed Stockout cost: economic consequences of running out of stock (lost profit and/or goodwill) Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) Assumptions of the model: Demand rate is constant, recurring and known The lead time (from order placement and order delivery) is constant and known No stockouts are allowed Goods are ordered and produced in lots, and the lot is placed into inventory all at one time Unit item cost is constant, carrying cost is linear function of average inventory level Ordering cost is independent of the number of items in a lot Marginal holding cost is constant The item is a single product (no interaction with other products) The „SAW-TOOTH” Inventory level Order inteval Order quantity (Q) Average inventory leve = Q/2 Time Total cost of inventory (tradeoff between ordering frequency and inventory level) Total cost Holding cost (H ∙ Q/2) Minimum cost Ordering cost (S ∙ D/Q) EOQ Calculating the total cost of inventory Let… S be the ordering cost (setup cost) per oder D be demanded items per planning period H be the stock holding cost per unit H=i∙C, where C is the unit cost of an item, and i is the carrying rate Q be the ordered quantity per order (= lot) TC = S ∙ (D/Q) + H ∙ (Q/2) (D/Q) is the number of orders per period (Q/2) is the average inventory level in this model The minimum cost (EOQ) TC = S ∙ (D/Q) + H ∙ (Q/2) бTC/бQ = 0 0 = - S ∙ (D/Q 2) + H/2 H/2 = S ∙ (D/Q 2) Q 2 = (2 ∙ S ∙ D)/H EOQ = √ (2 ∙ S ∙ D)/H Example D = 1000 units per year S = 100 euro per order H = 20 euro per unit Find the economic order quantity! (we assume a saw-tooth model) EOQ = √ (2 ∙ 1,000units ∙ 100euro)/20euro/unit EOQ = √ 10,000units = 100units 2 The EOQ zone Reordering (or replenishment) point When to start the ordering process? It depends on the… Stock position: stock on-hand (+ stock on-order) in a simple saw-tooth model it is Q, in some cases, there can be an initial stock (Q0), that is different from Q. In this case the first order depends on Q0 lead time (LT): the time interval from setting up order to the start of using up the ordered stock Average demand per day (d) ROP = d (LT ) + safety stock Examples Q0 = 600 tons ROP = 80 tons Q = 200 tons d = 10 tons per day (600 – 80)/10 = 52. day LT = 8 days What is the ROP and when 52 + 8 + (200 – 80)/10 = 72. day we reach that level? What is the time of the next reorder? Q0 = Q = 400 tons d = 16 tons per day LT = 20 days ROP = ? First rearder time? ROP = 16 ∙ 20 = 320 tons First reorder: (400 – 320)/16 = 5. day Examples D = 2,000 tons S = 100 euros per order H = 25 euros per order Initial stock = 1,000 tons LT = 12 days N = 250 days Calculate the following: EOQ d ROP first and second reorder time EOQ = √ (2 ∙ 2,000ts ∙ 100euro)/25euro/ts = 126.49ts d = 2,000ts/250ds = 8 ts/ds; ROP = 12 ∙ 8 = 96 tons Reroder1 = (1,000 – 96)/8 = 113 Reorder2 = 113 + 12 + (126.49 – 96)/8 = 128.81 = 128 The SAW-TOOTH with safety stock Inventory level Continuous demand Order quantity b Safety stock or buffer stock Time Buffer stock depends Demand rate and lead time Variability of demand and lead time Desired service level Service level The probability that demand will not exceed supply during lead time. Service level = 100 percent - stockout risk Buffer (safety) stock b=z∙σ where z = safety factor from the (normal) distribution σ = sandard deviation of demand over lead time Let z be 1,65 (95%), and the standard deviation of demand is 200 units/lead time. b = 1,65 ∙ 200units = 330units Example Lead time = 10 days Average demand over lead time: 300 tons Standard deviation over lead time: 20 tons Accepted risk level: 5% Safety stock = ? Reorder quantity = ? b = z * σ = 1,65 * 20 = 33 tons ROP = 300 + 33 = 333 tons Examples Q0 = 600 tons Q = 200 tons d = 10 tons per day LT = 8 days b = 33 tons ROP = 8 * 10 + 33 = 113 Q0 = Q = 400 tons d = 16 tons per day LT =20 days b = 66 tons ROP = 386 Economic production quantity (EPQ) Production of spare parts /materials done in batches (lots) Only on item Annual demand is known Usage rate (u) is constant Usage occurs continually but production occurs periodically Production rate is constant (p) Lead time (LT) does not vary No quantity (Q) discounts Setup cost instead of ordering cost EPQ with incremental inventory replenishment Total cost in EPQ TCEPQ = carrying cost + setup cost = = (Imax/2)H + (D/Q)S The economic run quantity: QEPQ = (2DS/H)0,5 ∙ [p/(p – u)]0,5 Cycle time = QEPQ / u Run time = QEPQ / p Imax = (QEPQ / p) (p – u) Iaverage = Imax / 2 EOQ example Quantity discounts Price reductions for large orders Example: The buyers total cost curve to minimze: Advantages For the buyer Fewer order set-ups (D*S/Q) Cheaper price (P*D) For the seller: Decreased holding costs (I*H/2) Decreased administrative costs (FC) Lower opportunity cost A TC görbe, ha szerepeltetjük a beszerzési költséget is Allowances and TC curves Constant carrying costs Carrying costs are stated as a percentage of unit price Cost Quantity Finding EOQ with constant holding cost D = 816 pieces/year S = 12 dollars/order H = 4 dollars/piece/year Prices: 20 dollars 1-49 pieces, 18 dollars 50-79 pieces, 17 dollars 80-99 pieces, 16 dollars over 100 pieces Calculating EOQ Solution QEOQ = (2*816*12/4)0,5 = 69.97 = 70 pieces TC70 = (70/2)*4 + (816/70)*12 + 18*816 = = 14.968 dollars TC80 = 14.154 TC100 = 13.354 With non-constant holding costs D = 4.000 pieces, S = 30 dollars, H = 0.4*P Prices: 1-499 pieces 0.9 dollar; 500-999 0.85 dollar; over 1.000 pieces 0.8 dollar. Solution 1. 2. 3. 4. QEOQ(0,8)=866 pieces → not feasible QEOQ(0,85)=840 pieces → feasible TC840=30*(4000/840)+0,4*0,85*(840/2)+4000*0,85= =3685,66 dollars→ is it profitable to order a greater lot? TC1000=30*(4000/1000)+0,4*0,8*(1000/2)+4000*0,8= =3480 dollars→ yes, it is profitable. Alternative models 1 Periodic review system: Stock level is examined at regular intervals Size of the order depends on the quantity on stock. it should bring the inventory to a predetermined level Stock on hand Q Q Q time T L L L T T Alternative models 2 Fixed-order-quantity system: A predetermined stock level (reorder point) is given, at which the replenishement order will be placed The order quantity is constant Stock on hand Q Q R L L L Elements of demand patterns (forecasting) Actual demand: Trend line Seasonal fluctuacion Weekly fluctuation (Daily fluctuation) Random fluctuation Inventory decisions and Multiple Distribution Centres / warehouses The ‘square root law’: A rule of thumb The total safety-stock holding in a distribution system is proportional to the square root of the number of depot locations Example: If we reduce the number of DCs from 10 to 5, the savings in safety stock is: 1 – (√5 / √10) = 29% Pareto’s law or the ’80/20 rule’: A rule of thumb Approximately 20% of storage items account for 80% of the inventory value measured in money. ABC analysis (or Pareto analysis): ‘A’ lines: fast movers (20%) – 80% of money usage ‘B’ lines: medium movers (30%) – 15% of money usage ‘C’ lines: slow movers (C+D 50%) – 5% of money usage ‘D’ lines: obsolete / dead stock Example Initial number of warehouses: 6 Initial sum of safety stocks: 6,000 New number of warehouses: 2 What is the new sum of safety stocks? 6000*(2/6)0.5=3464.10 ABC analysis ABC analysis ABC analysis exercise Item number Annual demand Price Annual dollar value 1 2.500 360 ? 2 1.000 70 ? 3 2.400 500 ? 4 1.500 100 ? 5 700 70 ? 6 1.000 1000 ? 7 200 210 ? 8 1.000 4000 ? 9 8.000 10 ? 500 200 ? 10 ? ABC analysis exercise Item number Annual demand Price Annual dollar value 1 2.500 360 900.000 2 1.000 70 70.000 3 2.400 500 1.200.000 4 1.500 100 150.000 5 700 70 49.000 6 1.000 1000 1.000.000 7 200 210 42.000 8 1.000 4000 4.000.000 9 8.000 10 80.000 500 200 100.000 10 ∑ 7.591.000 Solution Item number Classification Annual dollar 8 4.000.000 3 1.200.000 6 1.000.000 1 900.000 4 150.000 10 100.000 9 80.000 2 70.000 5 49.000 7 42.000 Percentage of items Percentage of annual dollar value Solution Item number Classification Annual dollar 8 4.000.000 A 3 1.200.000 B 6 1.000.000 B 1 900.000 B 4 150.000 C 10 100.000 C 9 80.000 C 2 70.000 C 5 49.000 C 7 42.000 C ? Percentage of items Percentage of annual dollar value 10 52,7 30 40,8 60 6,5 ? Data Capture Techniques and error rates Written entry – 25,000 in 3,000,000 Keyboard entry – 10,000 in 3,000,000 Optical character recognition (OCR) – 100 in 3,000,000 labels that are both machine- and human-readable for example: license plates Bar code (code 39) – 1 in 3,000,000 (Rushton et al. 2006) fast, accurate and fairly robust reliable and cheap technique Transponders (radio frequency tags) – 1 in 30,000,000 a tag (microchip + antenna) affixed to the goods or container receiver antenna reader host station that relays the data to the server can be passive or active Thank you for listening