GfK Retail and Technology
PCA – GfK UK
30th of October 2008
GfK UK – PCA
2008
Contents – PCA
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK – PCA
UK Economic Overview
The Corporate market
GfK Methodology
Independents, Resellers, and System Integrators
2008
Contents – PCA
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK – PCA
UK Economic Overview
Corporate market
GfK Methodology
Independants, Resellers, and System Integrators
2008
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK - PCA
2008
Consumer Background Western Europe
4
•
Banking panic = credit crunch and fears throughout Europe
•
General Electronics slowing trends
•
PCs and Notebooks in particular are still seen as “top of the mind” products
however
•
Massive price decline since week 1/1/08 taken as “granted”, more for less a
marketing basis
•
However, latest technologies are well received
•
Channels confused on what to sell and how to sell
(dualcores, Graphics, Large screens, …)
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK - PCA
2008
The Media is full of doom and gloom helping
to drive consumer sentiment
5
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK - PCA
2008
Bank Interest Rates
Set monthly by the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee)
6
16
15%
14
12
The Bank of England cut rates by 0.5% to
4.5% after a special meeting was held.
10
7.5%
% 8
6
5.25%
4
4.5%
3.5%
2
0
1989
1991
Source: Bank of England
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK - PCA
2008
Inflation
Consumer Prices Index (CPI) – 12 month % change
7
9
8.5%
8
7
The UK’s annual rate of inflation rose to 5.2% in
September, its highest level since March 1992.
6
5.2%
5
%
4
3
1.8%
2
1.5%
1
0
1989
1991
1993
1995
Source: National Statistics website: www.statistics.co.uk
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK - PCA
2008
House Prices
Average House Price
8
220000
House prices fell by 1.3% in September.
House prices are now 12.4% lower than
the same period last year. UK average
prices, at £172,108, have returned to
where they stood in February 2006.
200000
180000
£172k
160000
140000
120000
£
100000
80000
£84k
£70k
60000
The overall price decrease in the three months to September was very similar
to that in the previous quarter, indicating that the trend rate of decline may be
beginning to stabilise. The ongoing pressures on householders' income,
combined with the reduction in the availability of mortgage finance, however,
mean that market conditions will remain challenging.
40000
20000
0
1989
Source: Halifax
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK - PCA
2008
Unemployment
All Persons 16 and Over - 3 Month Rolling Average
9
12
The unemployment rate was 5.7% for the three months to
August 2008, up 0.2% over the previous quarter and over the
year. The number of unemployed people increased by 164,000
over the quarter and by 146,000 over the year, to reach 1.79
million.
10.3%
10
8
5.7%
% 6
4
The annual rate of growth in average earnings
excluding bonuses was 3.6% in August 2008,
down 0.1% from the three months to July.
4.9%
The number of people in employment for the three
months to July 2008 was 29.42 million, down
122,000 over the quarter but up 199,000 over the
year.
2
0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Source: National Statistics website: www.statistics.co.uk
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK - PCA
2008
Comparing Borrowing to Saving
Quarterly Gross Borrowing Compared With Quarterly Gross Saving
10
(excludes secured borrowing)
60
Gross Saving
Gross Borrowing
£51.2bn
50
40
£36bn
Gross borrowing was £48.6bn greater
than gross saving during Q1 2008, up
from £44.5bn for the same period in
2007. This is an increase of 9.2%.
£bn 30
20
£16.2bn
£12.3bn
10
£10bn
£2.6bn
0
1989
1991
1993
1995
Source: National Statistics website: www.statistics.co.uk
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK - PCA
2008
GfK Consumer Confidence Index
Headline Index
11
20
Index Figure
Annual Moving Average
10
10
Start of the
credit crunch
0
1989
-2
1991
1993
-4
1995
1997
-10
-10
1999
-9
2001
2003
2005
2009
-10
First interest rate
rise in 3 years
-20
-32
-30
-35
-40
2007
The GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Index has shown a
small improvement, rising three points to -32, but it is
still 25 points lower than September last year.
-50
Research carried out by GfK NOP on behalf of the European Commission
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK - PCA
2008
Which Sectors Have Driven The Market Year To Date?
Year to Date % Growth In Value
TOTAL
Office
Market Value
Jan-Sep 2008
£32.2bn
0.9%
£2.9bn
-1.1%
IT
7.6%
£7.3bn
Telecommunications
0.1%
£2.5bn
Photo
0.5%
£1.0bn
Automotive
DIY/Gardening
Major Domestic Appliances
Small Domestic Appliances
Consumer Electronics
1.1%
£0.5bn
£8.3bn
-2.5%
£2.6bn
-3.8%
0.7%
1.9%
£1.4bn
£5.8bn
12
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK - PCA
2008
Which Sectors Have Driven The Market Month On Month?
Month On Month % Growth In Value
TOTAL
Office
Automotive
DIY/Gardening
£0.3bn
-0.6%
1.5%
Telecommunications
Photo
£3.3bn
-1.8%
IT
2.4%
-1.9%
-3.7%
-3.2%
Market Value
September 2008
£0.8bn
£0.3bn
£0.1bn
£0.05bn
£0.8bn
Major Domestic Appliances
-2.3%
£0.3bn
Small Domestic Appliances
-2.2%
£0.1bn
Consumer Electronics
-6.6%
£0.6bn
13
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK - PCA
2008
How Has The Total Durables Market Performed?
14
Month On Month % Growth In Value
Sep
Oct
2.5%
2.7%
Nov
4.5%
Dec
3.2%
Jan
4.3%
Feb
2.4%
Mar
Apr
3.7%
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
-0.9%
-0.5%
Sep
2.4%
0.0%
-2.0%
-1.8%
A total Durable Goods market in decline since April 2008…
With 4 months without growth and declines in key gifting categories in the first 3 weeks of October,
the outlook for Christmas does not bode well.
A drop in demand for high ticket items and large falls in average prices are the biggest factors
behind the current falls.
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK - PCA
2008
How Has The IT Sector Performed?
Month On Month % Growth In Value
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Product categories included: slide 25
Mar
Feb
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
6.3%
7.3%
6.8%
Aug
Sep
24.4%
11.0%
12.9%
9.6%
6.6%
2.8%
2.5%
3.4%
5.7%
1.5%
Lowest growth this September for IT since 13 months…
In the retail segment, the value of most IT categories is seen to decline in August (Monitors -29%,
Printers -28%). The value growth of Mobile PCs has driven the market for 2008, however
aggressive pricing has decreased the average price by 17% year on year.
High sales of Mobile PCs are now coming in at under £300. This has reduced value growth to 6%.
15
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK - PCA
2008
Total IT Great Britain
Th. Sales Value GBP
Growth % (Year to Date):JanSept08 vs. JanSept07
September 2008
Sales Value (Ths.) GBP
7,6
Total
537.284
49,4
Digital Photo Frames
32,6
Powermanagement
19,6
12,9
12,4
9,8
9
7,2
6,8
5,8
2,9
0,2
Mobile PCs
PC Mice
Comm. Cards
PC Mini-Speakers
IT Storage
Data-Video-Projectors
Keyboards
Box Software
MFD
Scanners
-1,5
-2
-2,8
-4,1
-4,2
-4,9
-7,4
-15
Electronic Assistants
Monitors
Webcameras
MDD
Desk PCs
TV Card/Tuners
Comm. Dev
Printers
SOS/PDAs
© by GfK-RT, www.gfkrt.com
-41,4
16
3.444
5.840
220.925
4.803
7.874
7.596
30.087
8.590
2.961
25.457
17.151
2.170
656
29.071
2.644
1.429
81.265
3.342
16.885
16.873
492
RG1152551-Total MarketGrowth(E)Val 12M
Contents – PCA
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK – PCA
UK Economic Overview
Corporate market
GfK Methodology
Independents, Resellers, and System Integrators
2008
GfK
andTechnology
Technology
GfK Retail
Retail and
10/2008
2008
GfK UK - PCA
IT HARDWARE
Sales Units %,Sales Value %
SEP07 - SEP08
Great Britain
18
Sales Units %
SEP07 OCT 07 NOV07 D EC07 JAN08
Sales Value %
F EB08 M AR 08 APR 08 M AY08 JU N08 JU L 08 AU G 08 SEP08
SEP07 OCT 07 NOV0 7 D EC07 JAN 08
F EB08 M AR 08 APR 08 M AY08 JU N08 JU L 08 AU G 08 SEP08
13,6
24
22,9
19,8
20,3
23,9
24
23,8
19,4 20,9
21,6 22,8 21,2
26,6
39,4 38,7
35,4
35,9
39
43,5 43,4
43
39,6
37,1
34,8 36,1
CORPORATE
CONSUMER
86,2
75,7 76,9
79,4
79,9
75,8 75,7 75,9
78,2
77
78,6 80,4 78,8
72,8
59,8 60,4
63,3
63,5
55,3 55,4
© by GfK-RT, www.gfkrt.com
56
60,1 59,3 61,9
64,4
63
RG1152733-SML sizes
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK - PCA
2008
Corporate market: size of Hardware devices
UK Th. Units last 25 months
2006
SEP06
OCT06
NOV06
2007
DEC06
JAN07
FEB07
MAR07
APR07
MAY07
JUN07
2008
JUL07
AUG07
SEP07
OCT07
NOV07
DEC07
JAN08
FEB08
MAR08
APR08
MAY08
JUN08
19
JUL08
AUG08
SEP08
1.200
1.000
800
600
1.087
1.034
981
400
846,3
976,2
957,7
923,7
920,6
876,1
809,4
960,5
948,7
879,5
887,2
888,5
784,6
200
0
© by GfK-RT, www.gfkrt.com
RG-1-Report 1
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK - PCA
2008
Total IT Great Britain
CORPORATE Channels
Th. Sales Value GBP
Growth % (Year to Date): Jan Sept 08 vs. Jan Sept07
0,6
Total
Powermanagement
Webcameras
Digital Photo Frames
PC Mini-Speakers
MDD
Box Software
Mobile PCs
Monitors
Data-Video-Projectors
Desk PCs
Keyboards
Comm. Cards
PC Mice
IT Storage
TV Card/Tuners
-0,9
-2,2
-2,5
-4
-8,1
-20,1
MFD
Scanners
Comm. Dev
Printers
Electronic Assistants
SOS/PDAs
© by GfK-RT, www.gfkrt.com
-44,3
September 2008
Sales Value (Ths.) GBP
20
238.298
30,1
29,4
14,8
13,4
12,5
10,7
5,3
4,6
4,3
3,5
2
1,3
0,3
61.214
0,2
15.062
3.763
392
158
244
496
9.523
16.538
7.106
54.392
1.125
3.059
1.451
1.328
5.057
1.309
11.737
12.501
1
253
RG1152576-Business only Growth(E)Val 12M
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK - PCA
2008
CORPORATE Channels: segmentation
GfK International definition
21
LARGE
Morethan
than100
£ 70millions
millions€
More
MEDIUM
Between
Between £0.7
1 andand
100
£70
millions
millions
€
SMALL
Less
Lessthan
than£0.7
1 million
millions
€
GfK Retail and Technology
10/2008
2008
GfK UK - PCA
Corporate market: Split between Large, Medium and Small
businesses
UK Units % last 13 months – All Indirect Corporate Channels
22
SEP07 OCT07 NOV07 DEC07 JAN08 FEB08 MAR08 APR08 MAY08 JUN08
JUL08 AUG08 SEP08
52,3
53,8
57,4 54,8 56,6
57,9 57,7 55,9
59,4
59,7 61,5 56,4
62,1
LARGE
MEDIUM
SMALL
35,1 34,6
5,2
3,8
© by GfK-RT, www.gfkrt.com
38,2 39,8
5,4
6,4
36,4
35
5,6
32,4
33,5
11,3 10,2 11,7
34,3
9,1
30,8 36,2
7,1
5,9
36
38,6
6,3
5,5
RG1152733-SML sizes
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK - PCA
2008
Product sales mix of IT specialists
Corporate Split – Sales Revenue share in %
23
Corporate Total
Small
Medium
Large
100%
90%
80%
39%
34%
37%
33%
41%
34%
53%
70%
60%
IT Hardware/Peripherals
Services
50%
40%
46%
41%
45%
Software
43%
44%
48%
40%
32%
28%
30%
20%
10%
20%
20%
20%
19%
19%
22%
19%
22%
2005
2007
2005
2007
2005
2007
2005
2007
0%
Remark:
Sales revenue shares in %
GfK
GfKRetail
Retailand
andTechnology
Technology
10/2008
2008
GfK UK - PCA
IT HARDWARE
Sales Units %,Sales Value %
JAN08-SEP08
Great Britain CORPORATE
24
Sales Units %
JAN07-SEP07
JAN08-SEP08
11,8
9,3
13
10
14,6
13,6
9,6
10,6
10
8,4
10,4
8,1
8,1
7,5
5,6
4,9
5,4
6,7
2,5
3,6
3,4
3
1,9
1,5
1,6
2
1,8
1,8
Sales Value %
JAN07-SEP07
JAN08-SEP08
STORAGE
Mobile Computer
MONITORS
MEMORY MODULES
DESK COMPUTERS
POINTING DEV
COMM.DEVICE
KEYING DEV
PRINTERS
POWERMANAGEMENT
COMM. CARDS
MM-DEVICES
MFD
MULTIDISC DRIVE
MINISPEAKERS
VISUAL CAMS
DIGITAL CAMERAS
HOUSINGS
DATA-/VIDEO-PRO
SCANNERS
Others
8,9
8,9
27
28,4
9,2
9,6
3,9
25,7
26,4
6,9
6,6
7,6
6,8
1,3
1,7
1,5
© by GfK-RT, www.gfkrt.com
2,8
1,7
1,7
1,3
RG-1-Report 1
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK - PCA
2008
PC - Key Points
25
Key Points
Consumer Market:
- Important development for “Free” laptop and Netbooks (already 8.7% of the volume in September)
- More and more “attach deals” (Box Software, Mice, USB key, …)
- Average price in decline: £372 for a Desktop, £394 for a Laptop and £216 for a Netbook
this September 2008.
Corporate Market:
- Focus on Technology and Services
- Average price also in decline:£565 for a desktop and £531 for a Laptop this September.
- Continuous growth in volume even if less important than the Consumer growth
Desktop: A market in decline on a long term, facing the cannibalisation of the laptop
market but with month-on-month growth since January 2008 thanks to the BtoB market.
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK - PCA
2008
PC Total: Growth by channel
UK Volume % – all indirect channels – month vs month -21 evolution
26
60.0
50.0
First free laptop
offer
42.6
44.9
40.0
39.9
37.8
36.3
32.5
30.0
31.3
28.2
24.7
24.3
22.5
20.0
TOTAL
25.3
22.9
CORPORATE
23.3
CONSUMER
19.6
31.0
17.7
15.3
22.0
12.3
10.0
8.7
0.0
Jan07
-10.0
Feb07
Mar07
Apr07
May07
Jun07
Jul07
Aug07 Sep07
Oct07
Nov07 Dec07
Jan08
Feb08
Mar08
Apr08 May08
Jun08
Jul08
Aug08
Sep08
Contents – PCA
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK – PCA
UK Economic Overview
Corporate market
GfK Methodology
Independents, Resellers, and System Integrators
2008
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK - PCA
2008
Retail Audit Methodology in 7 Steps
3. Determine the universe
e.g. Identify all the Mass
Merchandiser stores in Italy
28
4. Create a representative
sample of the universe
Using a universe matrix
2. Define Channels
5. Data is collected
from retailers and
coded
e.g. Mass Merchandisers
6. Quality Check
1. Define Product
Groups
e.g. PC’s
7. Presentation of Data
Information is then provided to
clients and retailers
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK - PCA
2008
GfK UK – IT Channel Structure
29
CONSUMER CHANNEL
BUSINESS CHANNEL
IT
RESELLER
IT
MAIL ORDER
MM
CES
CS/OER/TCS
Book Stores, DIY,
Supermarkets,
Car Accessory Shops
Electrical Independents and
Multiples, Photo Specialists
Computer Specialists /
Office Equipment Retailers /
Telecom Specialists
Dealers
VAPS
Micro Anvika, PC World,
Dabs.com, E-Buyer
Maplin, RS Components
...
Staples, Supplies Team
...
CPW, The Link, Phone 4U
Centerprise,
SCC, Elcom,
Computacenter,
XMA
...
Dabs4Work,
Insight,
PC World Bus,
Micro Warehouse,
W Store
...
Universe: 2539
Universe: 6936
Universe: 1530
Makro, Tesco, Asda,
Argos, Amazon,
Halfords,
John Lewis,
Play.com,
Pixmania
…
Comet, Currys, Currys Digital,
Empire Direct, Richer Sounds
...
Jessops, Photo Optix
...
Universe: 15130
Universe: 5503
End-User Tracked by GfK
MM
CES
CS
OER
TCS
=
=
=
=
=
Mass Merchandiser
Consumer Electronic Store
Computer Shop
Office Equipment Retailer
Telecom Specialists
CONSUMER CHANNEL
BUSINESS CHANNEL
= MM + CES + CS + OER + TCS
= IT RESELLER + IT MAIL ORDER
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK - PCA
2008
GfK Tracked IT Product Groups
30
Keying Devices
Visual Cams
Memory
Elements
PC
Housing
Pointing Devices
Minispeakers
Multimedia Cards
Monitors
IT Storage
Multi Disk
Drives
Smartphones
Projectors
Digital Photo
Frames
Electronic
Assistants
Gaming Devices
Communication
Cards
Communication
Devices
Media Gateway
NG Box
Software
Power
Management
Small Organising
Solutions
Scanners
Contents – PCA
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK – PCA
UK Economic Overview
Corporate market
GfK Methodology
Independents, Resellers, and System Integrators
2008
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK - PCA
2008
GfK UK – IT Channel Panel Future
32
RESELLER
DISTRIBUTION
Consumer
Public Sector
Corporate
ADSL, Gadgets, PC,
Peripherals, Software
SLA’s, Work stations,
Network, Licencing
Infastructure, ASP,
Managed Services
Scan, Overclockers,
Cancom, Stuff
ComputerLand, Ebuyer
Compusys, Brightminds,
Granada Learning, REM,
RM, Softcat,
The Consortium, Antec Int
Universe: no.?
Universe: no.?
Hardware
Computercenter, Basilica,
XMA, Ramesys e-Business,
Lynx technolgy, Viglen,
Greymatter
OEM, Retail, Lease
Bundles
Universe: no.?
Universe: no.?
End-User Tracked by GfK
Software
OEM, Licence, Retail,
Download
Universe: no.?
Product Info.
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK - PCA
2008
GfK UK – IT Channel Panel Future
33
Splitting the Channel Into Sectors
•
•
•
Adds increased value to the reports for both clients and suppliers
Depth in reporting so trends can be analysed in sectors not just categories
Changes in business focus needs to be identified
Sourcing product definitions
•
•
•
•
Proactive research reduces weaker areas in reporting
Improves non boxed coverage
GfK can identify new opportunities
Wider market awareness
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK - PCA
2008
GfK UK – IT Channel Panel Future
34
Data Exchange
•
•
•
•
Sending Weekly / Monthly Sales Data to GfK
GfK give
• Fit 4 IT news
• Topview Product Reports
• Store Audit (where qualified)
• Summary Economic Overview
• Chart Pack (where qualified)
Detailed reports and presentations available as per member rate card
Partly Subsidised PCA Membership
GfK Retail and Technology
GfK UK - PCA
2008
35
…Thanks for listening