Electric, Hybrid, and Fuel
Cell Vehicles
Oct. 24, 2003
Gary Flomenhoft,
BSME, MAPP, CEE
Research Associate
Gund Institute, SNR
Owner:
InnEVations.com
Electric Vehicles 1st Wave 1890-1920
The years 1899 and 1900 were the high point of
electric vehicles in America, as they outsold all
other types of cars.
Source:
US DOE
“Better batteries 10 years away”
“Liars, damn liars, and battery
manufacturers.” -Thomas Edison (Ni-Fe)
Hubbert Oil Cycle
M. King
Hubbert
Two Views
•Julian Simon view: technological
developments and human ingenuity
will yield more resources
–“Drowning in oil” The Economist, March
6th-12th 1999, pp. 23-25
•Colin Campbell, et al. use Hubbert
curves to predict the end of oil
S. Gürcan Gülen,
Ph.D.
–“The End of Cheap Oil” Scientific
American, March 1998, pp. 78-83
(Campbell and Laherrere)
Ehrlich/Simon bet
Source-World Oil Extraction
World Oil Extraction
Hubbert-Epoch of Fossil Fuel
World Oil Extraction
World Oil Extraction
World Oil Extraction
Atmospheric CO2 since 1000AD
CO2 PPM
SINK-CLIMATE CHANGE
Does CO2 change the climate and how bad is it?
SINK-CLIMATE CHANGE
Does CO2 change the climate and how bad is it?
2 BILLION YEARS
You are here
SINK-CLIMATE CHANGE
Does CO2 change the climate and how bad is it?
SINK-CLIMATE CHANGE
Arctic Ice thinned by 40%: US subs
Europe in August 2003
COUNTRY DEATHS DETAILS
Temperatures soared to 104 degrees Fahrenheit in
parts of the country; temperatures in Paris were
France
14,802
the highest since record-keeping began in 1873.
7000
High temperatures of up to 105.4 degrees
Fahrenheit, the hottest since records began in
1901, raised mortality some 10 percent above
average.
4230
High temperatures coupled with elevated groundlevel ozone concentrations exceeding the European
Union's health-risk threshold.
Italy
UK
Neth
Portugal
Belgium
4175
2045
1400
1316
150
Temperatures in parts of the country averaged 16
degrees Fahrenheit higher than previous year.
TOTAL
35,118
Germany
Spain
The first triple digit (Fahrenheit) temperatures
were recorded in London.
Temperatures ranged some 14 degrees warmer
than normal.
Temperatures were above 104 degrees Fahrenheit
throughout much of the country.
Temperatures exceeded any in the Royal
Meteorological Society's records dating back to
1833.
CLIMATE DAMAGE
CLIMATE DAMAGE
CLIMATE DAMAGE
1980’s 2nd Wave of EVs
Jet Industries:
Citi-Car
(Beaumont)
Electricar
Lectra
“Better batteries 10 years away”
Percentage Sector Contribution to Air Pollution Emissions (1995)
Source: WRI Estimate Based on Data from "National Air Quality and Emissions Trends
Report, 1995," 1996, EPA 454/R-96-005.
AIR POLLUTION FATALITIES NOW EXCEED TRAFFIC FATALITIES BY 3: 1
http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/Update17.htm
US CO2 by Sector (1999)
Source:
U.S. Territories
1%
Commercial
16%
(US EPA)
Industrial
33%
Residential
19%
Transportation
31%
Source: EPA
Gas Hog Tax Credit
Hummer H1
Sticker price $106,185
Current law
Equipment deduction $25,000
Total tax deduction* $60,722
Bush economic plan
Equipment deduction $75,000
Total tax deduction* $88,722
* Includes bonus tax write-off enacted by Congress in March 2002 and a
deduction for normal depreciation.
Sources: Detroit News research, IRS, Taxpayers for Common Sense
Tom Tomorrow
If World consumption = US: Need 4 more planets
Source:
Center for
A New
American
Dream
Cars per Thousand People
Source:
JustAuto.com
Thomas Gross,
US DOE
“Today there are 670 million vehicles in the
world. By 2050 that number is expected to
increase to 4.5 billion or maybe more.”
Why did automakers build EVs in 90’s?
NOT Env. Or MARKET DRIVEN! Gas
is cheap. ($400 billion annual subsidy)
1990-CARB Mandate
• More than 95% of Californians live in areas that do not
meet health-based federal or state air quality standards.
• Approximately 50% of smog-forming pollutants come
from gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles.
• Although many automobiles sold in California today are
98% cleaner than those sold 30 years ago, population
growth and increased driving may soon outpace our
ability to improve air quality if we rely solely on continued
improvements to gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles.
• ZEVS required for further reductions
1990 CA Air Resources Board Mandates
Model Years
1998
2001
2003-2008
2009-2011
2012-2014
2015-2017
2018+
ZEVs reqd. in
CA
2%*
5%*
10%
11%
12%
14%
16%
* Requirement modified in 1996
ZEV EMISSIONS
Source:
CA Air
Resources
Board
Do ZEVs simply shift air emissions from
one place to another?
Even when taking into account
power plant emissions, ZEVs are
95% cleaner than even the lowest
emitting conventional vehicle.
EVs 3rd Wave 1990+:
First Phase = (Small Conversion companies)
Solar Electric
Engineering
(US
Electricar)
“Better batteries 10 years away”
MendoMotive
InnEVations
Thunderstruck-EV.com
1990’s 2nd Phase: Small Corporations, US
Solectria:
Corbin:
Tropica (Beaumont)
“Better batteries 10 years away”
Europe: City-El 5000 Sold Party
Phase 3: Nearing 1998 Detroit and Japan
Detroit: We can’t do it. Hire Lawyers.(Can’t do seatbelts,
5mph bumpers, side impact protection, unleaded gas, better gas
mileage, airbags, etc.)
GM EV-1
Gen 1:
Lead Acid
70 - 90 miles
Model Years
ZEVs reqd. in CA
1998
2%*
2001
5%*
2003-2008
10%
2009-2011
11%
2012-2014
12%
2015-2017
14%
2018+
16%
* Requirement modified in 1996
Gen 2: Nickel
Metal Hydride
125-150 miles
Cost of regulations-OMB report
Annual Cost: $37-43 billion
EPA conservative approach, Consistently
overestimates costs, not considering least
cost approach and technical innovation
Annual Benefits: $121-193
EPA consistently underestimates benefits
USING ACTUAL NOT THEORETICAL
CASES BENEFITS OUTWEIGH COSTS
5:1
Japan: We can do it. Hire engineers.
Honda EVPlus
Nickel Metal Hydride 80 miles
EV Plus Specs
Length: 159.3 in.
Width: 68.9 in.
Height: 64.2 in.
Wheel Base 99.6 in.
Track Front/Rear: 59.1/58.7
Curb Weight: 3593.5
Drive Train: Front Wheel Drive
Occupants: Four
Voltage: 288
Motor: Brushless PM
Power: 49 Kw (66hp)
Battery 24 12v NiMH
Charger: On-board Conductive
Recharge: 6-8 hrs
Acceleration: 4.9 sec (0-30 mph)
Maximum Speed: 80+ mph
Range: 100 miles (80% discharge)
Lease Cost: $455/mo for 36 mo.
Japan: We can do it. Hire engineers.
Honda EVPlus
Nickel Metal Hydride 80 miles
Nissan Altra
Lithium-ion 80-100 miles
Toyota RAV4-EV
Nickel Metal Hydride 80 miles
Better Batteries are finally here, but you can’t afford them.
Neighborhood Electric Vehicles
FORD Th!nk
Nissan Hypermini
Chrysler GEM
Toyota E-com
OTHER EVS
ENERGY STORAGE
Performance of Energy Storage Systems
Fuel
Specific Energy
Wh/kg
Gasoline
12,300
Natural gas
9,300
Hydrogen
33,000
Lead-acid battery
30
Advanced Lead Acid
48
Gasoline:C8H18
ENERGY STORAGE
Performance of Advanced EV Battery Systems
Energy Density
Wh/kg
Power Density
W/kg
Life
Cycles
Lead-acid battery
30
150
300
USABC
Advanced Lead Acid
48
150
800
and others
GM Ovonic nickel metal
hydride
70
220
>600
SAFT nickel metal hydride
70
150
1,500
SAFT lithium ion
120
230
600
Lithium polymer
150
350
<600
60
255
500
160-220
low
?
Source:
Evercel Nickel-zinc
Zinc-Air
Composite Flywheels
Supercapacitors
120
LITHIUM-ION BATTERY
SOURCE:
ELECTRIC
STORAGE
ASSOC.
COMPOSITE FLYWHEELS
SOURCE:
ELECTRIC
STORAGE
ASSOC.
SUPERCAPACITORS
SOURCE:
ELECTRIC
STORAGE
ASSOC.
ZINC-AIR FUEL CELL
SOURCE:
ELECTRIC
STORAGE
ASSOC.
MECHANICAL RECHARGE
ZINC-AIR FUEL CELL
SOURCE:
METALLIC
POWER.COM
ENERGY DENSITY BY WEIGHT AND VOLUME
SOURCE:
ELECTRIC
STORAGE
ASSOC.
CARB DEFINITIONS
Passenger car emissions reduction
C
L
E
A
N
E
R
HC
CO
NOx
TLEV- Transitional Low-Emission 50%
NR
NR
Vehicle
LEV- Low-Emission Vehicle
70%
NR
50%
ULEV- Ultra-Low-Emission
85%
50%
50%
SULEV- Super-Ultra-Low-Emission 96%
Vehicle (90% cleaner than 2003 average)
70%
95%
PZEV-Partial Zero-Emission-
96%
70%
95%
Vehicle
SULEV & 15 year/150K mile
warranty and 0 evaporative emissions.
Vehicle (50% cleaner than the average new
2003 model year vehicle. )
AT PZEV-Advanced Technology 96%
PZEV (CNG, hybrid-electric,
70%
95%
methanol, fuel cell)
PZEV & and include advanced
technology components.
ZEV-Zero-Emission Vehicles (98%
100%
cleaner than the average new 2003 model year vehicle.)
100%
100%
What is a Hybrid Electric Vehicle?
What is a Hybrid Electric Vehicle?
What is a Hybrid Electric Vehicle?
Available Hybrid Electric Vehicles
2000-2004 TOYOTA
PRIUS
$22,000-$26,000
60 hwy 48 city
1999-2004 HONDA
INSIGHT
$19,180-21,380
Std:68 auto:62/58
2003-2004
HONDA CIVIC
$20,260-$21,110 std:46/51 auto:48/47
Hybrid Electric Vehicles
2005 FORD ESCAPE
HYBRID
Loaded ICE $26,700
Hybrid ~35-40 mpg city
Semi-hybrid
2004 GM “FlexPower” Chevy
Silverado Pickup
10-15% mpg
improvement
Future Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Nissan Tino
Nissan's Hybrid Vehicle(HV) is called the
Tino. It is powered by a combination of a
1.8-liter four-cylinder engine and an electric
motor with lithium-ion batteries. The
vehicle is a five passenger car that achieves
twice the fuel economy and 50% less
emissions. Nissan's Tino hybrid electric car
will be sold only in Japan, initially.
Spring 2004 LEXUS HYBRID
Fall 2004 Toyota Hylander
Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV)
Since 1993-$1.1 billion
GM Precept
Hybrid
Chrysler ESX 2 Hybrid
Dodge ESX-3 hybrid
1.5-liter direct-injection three-cylinder diesel
engine
15-kW or 20-hp, permanent magnet electric
motor/generator
2006 Ford Futura
21-kW lithium-ion battery pack.
Future Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Manufacturer
Ford
Model
Explorer
Year
2005+
GM
Chevy
Suburban
2005
Saturn VUE
2005
Chevy Equinox 2006
DaimlerChrysler
GMC Yukon
2007
Chevy Tahoe
2007
Dodge Ram
Pickup
Mercedes Sclass
2005
2006
FUEL CELL VEHICLES-2004 FORD
The Ford Focus FCV fuel cell system is efficient,
quiet, and produces zero emissions. Ford has
announced plans to have a three year
demonstration program of 5-10 fleet vehicles in
Vancouver, Canada in 2004.
FUEL CELL VEHICLES-2003 Honda
Honda is delivering a family of new FCX fuelcell vehicles to its first customer, the city of Los
Angeles. Honda plans to lease approximately
30 fuel-cell cars in California and Japan
during the next several years. The fuel-cell
itself is propelled by electricity generated by a
hydrogen-oxygen chemical reaction—and its
only emission, remarkably, is water vapor.
FUEL CELL VEHICLES-2003 TOYOTA
(NOT
AVAILABLE)
Its only exhaust is water vapor. Its
secret? A hydrogen fuel cell that
harnesses the electricity of separated
atoms and molecules as they strive to be
electrically balanced. Developed entirely
in-house, FCHV-4 shows Toyota on the
leading edge of fuel-cell technology.
FUEL CELL VEHICLES-NISSAN
X-TRAIL FCV
Nissan is actively developing fuel cell
vehicles (FCVs) that have low
environmental impact and save energy.
Commercialization is scheduled for
2003.(?????)
FUEL CELL VEHICLES-GM
PROTOTYPE
The Hy-wire has no internal
combustion engine, instrument
panel, brake or accelerator
pedals – but it does have
ample power supplied by a
GM fuel cell that runs on
hydrogen.
FUEL CELL VEHICLES-DAIM/CHRYSLER
FUEL CELL VEHICLES-DAIM/CHRYSLER
FUEL CELL VEHICLES-HYUNDAI
HYDROGEN FUEL CELL OPERATION
SOURCE:
Schatz Energy Lab
Humboldt State U.
PEM HYDROGEN FUEL CELLS
SOURCE:
Schatz Energy Lab
Humboldt State U.
PEM= Proton Exchange Membrane (“Nafion”tm)
SOME SURPRISING FACTS ABOUT HYDROGEN
Q1) IS HYDROGEN A revolutionary NEW
ENERGY SOURCE?
Where does hydrogen come from?
Fossil: nat gas, propane, gasoline, methanol
Renewable: electric wind, solar, etc. electrolyze water
Methane (CH4), methanol(CH3OH), ammonia(NH3?)
A) HYDROGEN STORES & TRANSPORTS
ENERGY. A CARRIER NOT A SOURCE.
Q2) WHICH IS MORE EFFICIENT, FUEL
CELL OR BATTERIES?
A) BATTERIES
H2 Fuel Cell Efficiency
INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINE
oil (gasoline) -> IC engine 15%
BATTERY POWERED ELECTRIC VEHICLE
Oil-> power plant -> electricity ~=45%
transmission~=80%
battery charging ~=80%
electric drive system ~=80%
.45 x .8 x .8 x .8 = 23%
FUEL CELL POWERED ELECTRIC VEHICLE
Oil-> power plant-> electricity~=45%
electricity transmission ~=80%
H2 electrolyzer max efficiency ~=70%
H2 fuel cell max efficiency ~=50%
Electric drive system ~=80%
.45 x .8 x .7 x .5 x .8 = 10%
SOLAR FUEL CELLS ?
SOURCE:
Schatz
Energy Lab
Humboldt
State U.
last
Most efficient form of transportation
Source: http://www.geocities.com/Hollywood/Set/7466/bikepics.htm