"‫"מקופנהגן הקרה למציאות המתחממת – תוצאות הועידה והיערכות ישראל‬
‫ באוניברסיטת תל אביב‬18.2
‫שינויי אקלים גלובליים ותחזיות לאזור המזרח התיכון‬
"Global warming and the potential threats in
the Mediterranean"
Pinhas Alpert
Head, Porter School for the Environmental Studies,
Dept. Geophysics & Planetary Sciences
Tel Aviv University
‫בעיות עיקריות בחיזוי אקלימי בישראל‬
‫• תוכנית לאומית מקיפה‬
‫• חוסר ביכולת מיחשוב גבוהה‬
‫• בסיסי נתונים זמינים (מטאורולוגיה‪ ,‬הידרולוגיה‪,‬תכסית‬
‫שטח‪ ,‬ים‪ ,‬נתוני קרקע)‬
‫• שיתופי פעולה בינלאומיים כולל שכנינו‬
‫• שיתופי פעולה עם מעצבי מדיניות‬
Outline
• Global Warming- Some facts.
• Temparature & Rainfall trends
focus on the Mediterranean region
• Extreme Events
• Regional Scenarios for Water
Management- GLOWA Jordan River Project
• Summary
Solar insolation
Thermal –IR
radiation
CO2
Methane
N2O
Graph for 10,000 years showing
the huge jump in ALL greenhouse
gases at the time of the industrial
revolution.
‫טמפרטורת פני כדור הארץ‬
‫‪1850-2100‬‬
IPCC AR-4 2007
19 IPCC models (100-200km resolution) –
Range of results
‫שינויים בריכוז ‪ CO2‬באטמוספרה‬
‫‪Source: CEOS handbook‬‬
Models with only natural
forcings cannot reproduce
the observed temperature
trend after 1950
Percent Precipitation Change for 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999
Multi-model Average
IPCC AR-4 2007
Trend summer (JJA) 850 mb temperature (°C/100y)NNRP reanalysis
Warming trend of
1.5 – 4°C/100y,
mostly over W
- Med & Egypt,
~3-4 times that
of the global trend
H. Saaroni, B. Ziv, J. Edelson, and P. Alpert, 2003, Long-term variations in
summer temperatures over the Eastern Mediterranean, Geophysical Research
Letters, 30, 18, 1946, 2003 (DOI:10.1029/2003GLO17742)
Precipitation difference
2071-2100 vs 1961-1990
control run vs. scenarios
A2
B2
50-100 mm/y
~50 mm/y
Climatic Trends
Global super high-resolution run
Kitoh, Yatagai and Alpert, 2008: First super-high-resolution
model projection that the ancient “Fertile Crescent” will
disappear in this century. Hydrological Research Letters, 2,
1-4, DOI: 10.3178/HRL.2.1, 2008.
Streamflow changes
(m**3/sec)
‫זרימת נהר‬
‫פרת‬
‫זרימת נהר‬
‫הירדן‬
2081-2100
‫זרימת נהר‬
‫ טורקיה‬,‫סייהאן‬
Kitoh, Yatagai and Alpert, 2008: First super-high-resolution model projection that the ancient
“Fertile Crescent” will disappear in this century. ", Hydrolo. Res. Lett., 2, 1-4, DOI: 10.3178/HRL.2.1, 2008.
Seasonal changes of monthly mean river discharge of six rivers (19792003; bold), compared to (2075-2099; dashed).
Bold-current
Dashed- future
Except to the Jordan River, all rivers flow into the Mediterranean (m3/s). Bold lines are for current
climate, while dashed for the future.
Heat wave changes in the eastern Mediterranean since 1960
F. G. Kuglitsch,1,2 A. Toreti,1,2,3 E. Xoplaki,1,4 P. M. Della‐Marta,5 C. S. Zerefos,6
M. Türkeş,7 and J. Luterbacher8
Geophysical Research Letters
17th April 2010
Received 25 November 2009; revised 13 January 2010; accepted 19 January 2010;
published 17 February 2010.
[1] A new data set of high‐quality homogenized daily
maximum and minimum summer air temperature series from
246 stations in the eastern Mediterranean region (including
Albania, Bosnia‐Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus,
Greece, Israel, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia, Turkey) is
developed and used to quantify changes in heat wave
number, length and intensity between 1960 and 2006. Daily
temperature homogeneity analyses suggest that many
instrumental measurements in the 1960s are warm‐biased,
correcting for these biases regionally averaged heat wave
trends are up to 8% higher. We find significant changes
across the western Balkans, southwestern and western
Turkey, and along the southern Black Sea coastline.
Since the 1960s, the mean heat wave intensity, heat wave length
and heat wave number across the eastern Mediterranean
region have increased by a factor of 7.6 ± 1.3, 7.5 ± 1.3
and 6.2 ± 1.1, respectively. These findings suggest that the
heat wave increase in this region is higher than previously
35
No. of spells
30
Cold
25
Hot
Durations (days)
of hot/cool spells
1975-1948
20
15
10
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Length (No. of days)
No
.
of spells
Cold
Hot
Heat waves increase &
longer
Length (No. of days)
2002-1976
Frequency of hot & cold
spells in July-Aug in both
halfs of 1948-2002
B. Ziv , H. Saaroni, A. Baharad, D. Yekutieli and P. Alpert, "Indications for aggravation in
Summer heat conditions over the Mediterranean basin", Geoph. Res. Lett., 32, L12706, doi:10.1029/2005GL022796, 2005.
Changes in T-850 mb distributions over the E.
Mediterranean
• Most frequent value increases
•Distribution widens
•Increase in heat waves & their intensity
B. Ziv , H. Saaroni, A. Baharad, D. Yekutieli and P. Alpert, "Indications for aggravation in
Summer heat conditions over the Mediterranean basin", Geoph. Res. Lett., 32, L12706, doi:10.1029/2005GL022796, 2005.
ANNUAL AVERAGES
800
annual average precipitation (mm)
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Beer
Sheva
Dorot
Jerusalem
Qiryat
Anavim
Tel Aviv
Qiryat
Shaul
Eilon
Yiron
Kbutzat
Kineret
Har
Knaan
STATION NAME
OBSERVATION
CONTROL
B2
A2
Kfar Blum
Kfar
Giladi
STANDARD DEVIATION
300
standard deviation (mm)
250
200
150
100
50
0
Beer
Sheva
Dorot
Jerusalem
Qiryat
Anavim
Tel Aviv
Qiryat
Shaul
Eilon
Yiron
Kbutzat
Kineret
Har
Knaan
STATION NAME
OBSERVATION
CONTROL
B2
A2
Kfar Blum
Kfar
Giladi
Number of Days for the Extreme Rainfall
at Har-Knaan 1961-1990
observed control B2
A2
Over 50 mm/d
24
26
35
26
Over 70 mm/d
6
7
15
10
Over 100 mm/d
1
5
5
5
Over 120 mm/d
1
1
0
3
Conclusion: A factor of 2 (A2) or 3 (B2) of
increase in heavy rain days (above 70 mm/d)
0
2059
2056
2053
2050
2047
2044
2041
2038
2035
2032
2029
2026
2023
2020
2017
2014
2011
2008
2005
2002
1999
1996
18
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
times
20
7-day dry spells
RCM
Ein Ziw an
Maayan Baruch
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2059
2056
2053
2050
2047
2044
2041
2038
2035
2032
2029
2026
2023
2020
2017
2014
2011
2008
2005
2002
1999
1996
18
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
times
3-day wet spells
20
RCM
Ein Ziw an
Maayan Baruch
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
‫בעיות עיקריות בחיזוי אקלימי בישראל‬
‫• תוכנית לאומית מקיפה‬
‫• חוסר ביכולת מיחשוב גבוהה‬
‫• בסיסי נתונים זמינים (מטאורולוגיה‪ ,‬הידרולוגיה‪,‬תכסית‬
‫שטח‪ ,‬ים‪ ,‬נתוני קרקע)‬
‫• שיתופי פעולה בינלאומיים כולל שכנינו‬
‫• שיתופי פעולה עם מעצבי מדיניות‬
Results of First Scenario Panel Meeting
Four regional scenarios for future water
situation in Israel
Results of First Scenario Panel Meeting
Identified scenario driving factors
influencing future water situation
1. Global climate change
8. Access to and
allocation of water
2. Trade
9. Nature conservation
3. Water pollution and
treatment
10. Finance & Pricing
4. Energy
11. Demographics
5. Competing water
needs between sectors
12. Water supply
6. Values and attitudes
13. Peace / war regional
strategies
7. Education
14. Agriculture
Results of First Scenario Panel Meeting
First draft scenario storylines
Results of Second Scenario Panel Meeting
Elaborated Storylines
“Willingness & ability” - Economic growth / multi-lateral water sharing in which the region flourishes due to lasting peace and world-wide economic
growth.
“Modest hopes” - Economic growth / unilateral dividing of water - in
which outside donors invest heavily in the region to prevent deterioration of
the political situation.
“Suffering of the weak & environment” - Recession / unilateral dividing
of water - in which the economic and political situation in the region
stagnates or worsens.
“Poverty & peace” - Recession / multi-lateral water sharing – in which the
political situation improves but economic growth does not.
Scenario driving factors and their respective model driving forces.
Scenario Driving Factor
Model Driving Force
Trade
Change in area for water intensive exports
Energy
X
Finance & pricing
GDP per capita
Water pollution & treatment
Change in treated waste water production capacity
Competing water needs between sectors
X
Access to & allocation of water
X
Water supply
(i) Change in desalination capacity;
(ii) Change in water use efficiency in the
agricultural, domestic and industrial water use
sector
Values & attitudes
X
Education
X
Nature conservation
X
Demography
Population growth rate
Peace, war & regional stability
X
Global warming & cooling
Temperature & precipitation for the period 1961 –
2050
X Not quantified
Results of Second Scenario Panel Meeting
Storylines to Models
For example
Assumptions about
• Human population
growth rate
• Number of
livestock
• Grazing rate
…
LandSHIFT
model
changes in
land cover
TRAIN / ZIN
Model
changes in
livestock
water
consumption
changes in
water
evaporation,
transpiration,
surface runoff
Results phase II: Changes in water availability
Simulated, mean changes in water availability (runoff and groundwater recharge) for the
two land-use/land-cover change scenarios “Modest Hopes” (left) and “Poverty & Peace”
(right). Note that changes from small absolute numbers might result in high percentages.
Expected increase (degrees) in Average, Maximum and
Minimum daily temperature
40 year change
Japanese 20 km
change 1990-2030
North
Jerusalem
Tel Aviv
South
Tmin
0.8
0.9
0.8
1.0
winter
Tave
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.8
Tmax
1.3
1.0
1.0
0.6
Tmin
2.1
1.5
1.2
1.5
summer
Tave
1.7
1.6
1.1
1.5
Tmax
1.6
1.6
0.9
1.5
summer
Tave
1.6
1.4
1.1
1.2
Tmax
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.3
RegCM 50 km
change 2000-2040
North
Jerusalem
Tel Aviv
South
Tmin
1.7
2.0
1.9
1.3
winter
Tave
2.0
2.0
1.4
2,0
Tmax
1.9
2.6
2.5
1.5
Tmin
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.1
Summary
• Global and regional multi-model evaluation indicate strong
warming and drying of the Mediterranean region.
• Best models currently for Israel at the 20/50 km scale. Good for
temperature. For precipitation, sometimes still need bias
correction due to orographic effect
• Temperature: 1-2 degree increase shown in both global and local
models. Japanese model shows higher increase in summer, RegCM
shows higher increase in winter.
• Precipitation: Japanese and RegCM both show increased
interannual variability and probability of multi-year droughts.
Different timescale of when precipitation decreases.
• Additional information from other climate models (eg. RegCM 25
km) will improve our ability to answer questions such as “what is
the probability that there will be a multi-year drought or severe
heat wave in the coming decade?” and help inform our planning,
policy and adaptive response.