Predicting Academic Success:
Biology Students at FIU
Danilo Le Sante
Florida International University
FIU Biology/Marine Biology
 Fall 2014: 4,584 active majors
 2006-2008 FTIC (n=877):
- 79% first-to-second year retention rate
- 56% graduation rate
 2011-2013 FTIC (n=1,589)
- 81% first-to-second year retention rate
Overview
How can we improve the success of First-Time in College Biology students?
 Distribution
 Academic profile
 Course performance
 Retention & Graduation
 Key predictors
 Comparative analysis
Sample
2006-2008 FTIC Biology:
Distribution by High school GPA (W)
2006-2008 FTIC Biology:
One-Year Retention & HS GPA (W)
2006-2008 FTIC Biology:
Logistic Regression
HS GPA
Constant
Beta
Coefficient
Odds
Probability
Retention
Rate
Total
(n)
-
27%
44
2.9330
75%
52%
84
1.058
7.6800
88%
74%
97
2.387
1.406
10.877
92%
80%
193
-0.981
2.950
1.969
19.111
95%
88%
147
4.00-4.24
-0.981
3.266
2.285
26.196
96%
91%
184
7
4.25-4.49
-0.981
3.672
2.691
39.333
98%
94%
63
8
4.50-5.50
-0.981
2.853
1.872
17.333
95%
87%
60
79%
872
Category
HS GPA Range
Logit
1
Less than 3.0
2
3.00-3.24
-0.981
1.076
0.095
3
3.25-3.49
-0.981
2.039
4
3.50-3.74
-0.981
5
3.75-3.99
6
Odds
Reference Group
Overall
2006-2008 FTIC Biology:
Graduation Rate by Retention and HS GPA (W)
 Graduation Rate of Retained Students:
- HS GPA (W) less than 3.75: 39% (n=126)
- HS GPA (W) 3.75 or higher: 82% (n=301)
 Graduation Rate of Students not Retained (first-year):
- HS GPA (W) less than 3.75: 12% (n=12)
- HS GPA (W) 3.75 or higher: 64% (n=54)
2006-2008 FTIC Biology:
Other Findings
 First Term GPA
 Graduation Rate of Retained Students:
- First term GPA less than 3.25: 44% (n=162)
- First term GPA 3.25 or higher: 82% (n=301)
 First-year GPA
 Graduation Rate of Retained Students:
- First-year GPA less than 3.00: 36% (n=104)
- First-year GPA 3.00 or higher: 80% (n=324)
2006-2008 FTIC Biology:
HS GPA (W) and First-Year GPA
4.00
3.75
3.50
First-Year GPA of FTIC BIology Students
3.25
3.00
y = 1.6176x - 3.1853
R² = 0.8347
2.75
2.50
2.25
2.00
1.75
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
4.25
4.50
Weighted High School GPA of FTIC Biology Students
4.75
5.00
5.25
5.50
2006-2008 FTIC Biology:
Retention and Course Performance
 Retention rate based on passing/failing common first-year courses:
Retention Rate of
Biology Students
Course
Retention Rate of Students
who Passed
Retention Rate of Students
who Failed
n
%
n
%
n
%
Rate Difference
SLS 1501
587
79%
564
81%
23
49%
32%
ENC 1101
481
78%
443
82%
38
51%
31%
ENC 1102
375
81%
335
87%
40
51%
36%
CHM 1045
307
80%
208
87%
99
68%
19%
CHM 1045L
305
80%
269
84%
36
61%
23%
PSY 2020
293
79%
257
83%
36
62%
21%
BSC 1010
328
82%
270
87%
58
64%
23%
BSC 1010L
313
82%
245
88%
68
64%
24%
BSC 1011
147
85%
104
95%
43
68%
27%
MAC 1105
433
78%
237
89%
196
69%
20%
-
80%
-
87%
-
61%
25%
Weighted Avg.
2006-2008 FTIC Biology:
Performance in Key First-Year Courses
 Graduation rate based on grade earned in key course:
MAC 1105
College Algebra
Grade Earned
A to B+ (4.00-3.33)
B to B- (3.00-2.67)
C+ to C (2.33-2.00)
C- to D- (1.67-0.67)
F (0.00)
DR
BSC 1010
Gen. Biology I
ENC 1101
Writing & Rhetoric I
n
%
n
%
n
%
99
85%
239
84%
247
67%
63
66%
164
67%
78
48%
77
64%
53
50%
25
37%
33
52%
3
8%
3
14%
29
23%
1
3%
1
3%
45
35%
10
26%
5
26%
2006-2008 FTIC Biology:
Performance in Post-First-Year Courses
 Number of course attempts in relation to graduation
 Example:
Graduated
Class
First
Attempt
Did not Graduate On-Time
First-Year
1 Att 2 Att 3+ Att
GPA
n
%
PASS
269
85%
3.32
269
NOT PASS
145
60%
3.17
5
First-Year
1 Att 2 Att 3+ Att
GPA
n
%
49
15%
2.97
47
2
96
40%
2.81
27
32
Total
318
MAC 2311
Calculus I
96
44
37
241
2011-2013 FTIC Biology:
Distribution by High school GPA (W)
2006-2008 FTIC Biology:
Distribution by High school GPA (W)
2011-2013 FTIC Biology:
One-Year Retention & HS GPA (W)
2006-2008 FTIC Biology:
One-Year Retention & HS GPA (W)
Odds Comparison between
2006-08 and 2011-13
2006-2008
2011-2013
HS GPA Range
Odds
Odds
Probability
Retention Rate
Odds
Odds
Probability
Retention Rate
Less than 3.0
-
-
27%
-
-
62%
3.00-3.24
2.933
75%
52%
1.325
57%
69%
3.25-3.49
7.68
88%
74%
1.333
57%
69%
3.50-3.74
10.877
92%
80%
1.983
66%
77%
3.75-3.99
19.111
95%
88%
3.137
76%
84%
4.00-4.24
26.196
96%
91%
5.896
85%
91%
4.25-4.49
39.333
98%
94%
8.458
89%
93%
4.50-5.50
17.333
95%
87%
7.451
88%
93%
Retention and Course Performance
• Difference in retention rate based on passing/failing common
first-year courses:
2006-2008
2011-2013
Rate Difference
Rate Difference
SLS 1501
ENC 1101
ENC 1102
CHM 1045
CHM 1045L
PSY 2020
BSC 1010
BSC 1010L
BSC 1011
MAC 1105
32%
31%
36%
19%
23%
21%
23%
24%
27%
20%
27%
28%
23%
7%
17%
27%
26%
21%
6%
10%
Weighted Avg.
25%
19%
Course
Key Findings
 High School GPA (weighted) was a strong predictor of retention
 HS GPA (W) was correlated with first-year GPA at FIU
 Graduation rate was affected by HS, first term, and first year GPA
 Performance in gateway courses affected retention and graduation rates
Recommendations
 Disseminate information to faculty and staff
 GPA requirement?
 Monitor course performance
 Implement a “BA” track
 Additional support (i.e. tutoring, learning assistants)
 Collaboration with Chemistry department
 Behavioral assessment?