Predicting Academic Success: Biology Students at FIU Danilo Le Sante Florida International University FIU Biology/Marine Biology Fall 2014: 4,584 active majors 2006-2008 FTIC (n=877): - 79% first-to-second year retention rate - 56% graduation rate 2011-2013 FTIC (n=1,589) - 81% first-to-second year retention rate Overview How can we improve the success of First-Time in College Biology students? Distribution Academic profile Course performance Retention & Graduation Key predictors Comparative analysis Sample 2006-2008 FTIC Biology: Distribution by High school GPA (W) 2006-2008 FTIC Biology: One-Year Retention & HS GPA (W) 2006-2008 FTIC Biology: Logistic Regression HS GPA Constant Beta Coefficient Odds Probability Retention Rate Total (n) - 27% 44 2.9330 75% 52% 84 1.058 7.6800 88% 74% 97 2.387 1.406 10.877 92% 80% 193 -0.981 2.950 1.969 19.111 95% 88% 147 4.00-4.24 -0.981 3.266 2.285 26.196 96% 91% 184 7 4.25-4.49 -0.981 3.672 2.691 39.333 98% 94% 63 8 4.50-5.50 -0.981 2.853 1.872 17.333 95% 87% 60 79% 872 Category HS GPA Range Logit 1 Less than 3.0 2 3.00-3.24 -0.981 1.076 0.095 3 3.25-3.49 -0.981 2.039 4 3.50-3.74 -0.981 5 3.75-3.99 6 Odds Reference Group Overall 2006-2008 FTIC Biology: Graduation Rate by Retention and HS GPA (W) Graduation Rate of Retained Students: - HS GPA (W) less than 3.75: 39% (n=126) - HS GPA (W) 3.75 or higher: 82% (n=301) Graduation Rate of Students not Retained (first-year): - HS GPA (W) less than 3.75: 12% (n=12) - HS GPA (W) 3.75 or higher: 64% (n=54) 2006-2008 FTIC Biology: Other Findings First Term GPA Graduation Rate of Retained Students: - First term GPA less than 3.25: 44% (n=162) - First term GPA 3.25 or higher: 82% (n=301) First-year GPA Graduation Rate of Retained Students: - First-year GPA less than 3.00: 36% (n=104) - First-year GPA 3.00 or higher: 80% (n=324) 2006-2008 FTIC Biology: HS GPA (W) and First-Year GPA 4.00 3.75 3.50 First-Year GPA of FTIC BIology Students 3.25 3.00 y = 1.6176x - 3.1853 R² = 0.8347 2.75 2.50 2.25 2.00 1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 Weighted High School GPA of FTIC Biology Students 4.75 5.00 5.25 5.50 2006-2008 FTIC Biology: Retention and Course Performance Retention rate based on passing/failing common first-year courses: Retention Rate of Biology Students Course Retention Rate of Students who Passed Retention Rate of Students who Failed n % n % n % Rate Difference SLS 1501 587 79% 564 81% 23 49% 32% ENC 1101 481 78% 443 82% 38 51% 31% ENC 1102 375 81% 335 87% 40 51% 36% CHM 1045 307 80% 208 87% 99 68% 19% CHM 1045L 305 80% 269 84% 36 61% 23% PSY 2020 293 79% 257 83% 36 62% 21% BSC 1010 328 82% 270 87% 58 64% 23% BSC 1010L 313 82% 245 88% 68 64% 24% BSC 1011 147 85% 104 95% 43 68% 27% MAC 1105 433 78% 237 89% 196 69% 20% - 80% - 87% - 61% 25% Weighted Avg. 2006-2008 FTIC Biology: Performance in Key First-Year Courses Graduation rate based on grade earned in key course: MAC 1105 College Algebra Grade Earned A to B+ (4.00-3.33) B to B- (3.00-2.67) C+ to C (2.33-2.00) C- to D- (1.67-0.67) F (0.00) DR BSC 1010 Gen. Biology I ENC 1101 Writing & Rhetoric I n % n % n % 99 85% 239 84% 247 67% 63 66% 164 67% 78 48% 77 64% 53 50% 25 37% 33 52% 3 8% 3 14% 29 23% 1 3% 1 3% 45 35% 10 26% 5 26% 2006-2008 FTIC Biology: Performance in Post-First-Year Courses Number of course attempts in relation to graduation Example: Graduated Class First Attempt Did not Graduate On-Time First-Year 1 Att 2 Att 3+ Att GPA n % PASS 269 85% 3.32 269 NOT PASS 145 60% 3.17 5 First-Year 1 Att 2 Att 3+ Att GPA n % 49 15% 2.97 47 2 96 40% 2.81 27 32 Total 318 MAC 2311 Calculus I 96 44 37 241 2011-2013 FTIC Biology: Distribution by High school GPA (W) 2006-2008 FTIC Biology: Distribution by High school GPA (W) 2011-2013 FTIC Biology: One-Year Retention & HS GPA (W) 2006-2008 FTIC Biology: One-Year Retention & HS GPA (W) Odds Comparison between 2006-08 and 2011-13 2006-2008 2011-2013 HS GPA Range Odds Odds Probability Retention Rate Odds Odds Probability Retention Rate Less than 3.0 - - 27% - - 62% 3.00-3.24 2.933 75% 52% 1.325 57% 69% 3.25-3.49 7.68 88% 74% 1.333 57% 69% 3.50-3.74 10.877 92% 80% 1.983 66% 77% 3.75-3.99 19.111 95% 88% 3.137 76% 84% 4.00-4.24 26.196 96% 91% 5.896 85% 91% 4.25-4.49 39.333 98% 94% 8.458 89% 93% 4.50-5.50 17.333 95% 87% 7.451 88% 93% Retention and Course Performance • Difference in retention rate based on passing/failing common first-year courses: 2006-2008 2011-2013 Rate Difference Rate Difference SLS 1501 ENC 1101 ENC 1102 CHM 1045 CHM 1045L PSY 2020 BSC 1010 BSC 1010L BSC 1011 MAC 1105 32% 31% 36% 19% 23% 21% 23% 24% 27% 20% 27% 28% 23% 7% 17% 27% 26% 21% 6% 10% Weighted Avg. 25% 19% Course Key Findings High School GPA (weighted) was a strong predictor of retention HS GPA (W) was correlated with first-year GPA at FIU Graduation rate was affected by HS, first term, and first year GPA Performance in gateway courses affected retention and graduation rates Recommendations Disseminate information to faculty and staff GPA requirement? Monitor course performance Implement a “BA” track Additional support (i.e. tutoring, learning assistants) Collaboration with Chemistry department Behavioral assessment?