2008 and Beyond:
A new electoral
landscape?
Todd Donovan
Western Washington University
Themes

What might be unprecedented about the
2008 election?

Any change in the party system on
horizon?
Stability and Change in US
Election

Most elections replicate past results

Some are “realignments”

1932, 1968, 1980....

New landscape, new coalitions
Recent Electoral Coalitions

New Deal

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Democrats strongest in South; GOP in NE
Regan Revolution

1932 - 1968
1980 - 2000
1968 as precursor
Clinton coalition as interlude
Stalemate
2000 - 2008
New Deal Coalition

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1930s - 1968
Democrats dominate Congress & White House
GOP success with White House 1952

Dems enduring majority party

GOP = West, New England, OH/IN
Dems = South, PA, NY, MA, unions, blue collar, Catholics

Issue: New Deal economics

New Deal Coalition

1944
FDR 432 (53.4)
Dewey 99 (45.9)
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.

GOP competitive
in CA, NY, IL, MI,
CT, PA…
Post New Deal Coalition

1968
Humphrey 191 (42.7)
Nixon 301
(43.4)
Wallace 46
(13%)
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Democratic Party
in South splitting
Issue: Race
Post New Deal Coalition

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1976
Carter 297 (55%)
Ford 240 (45%)
Last time Dems
carry the South
Post New Deal Coalition


After 1968
New issue divide drives people to different
parties

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No majority party: Divided government
Civil rights drives white southerners away from
New Deal coalition
Takes decades for GOP to get fully established in
South
Reagan Revolution

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1980 - 2000
Realignment of South to GOP deepens
Dems down to 30% of white southern vote
Rocky Mountain West more solidly GOP
What was changing?

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Decline of class-based voting (not income)
rise of ‘values’ issues & values voters in GOP coalition
Emerging gender split in voting
Reagan Revolution

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1980 RR 50.7%
End of Democratic
dominance in South
GOP gains in US
House
GOP controls US
Senate
Reagan Revolution

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1988
Bush 426 (53%)
Dukakis 111 (46)
Democrats
maintain control
of US House;
regain Senate
Clinton Coalition (interlude)
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1992 - 2000
Clinton wins some South (not down ballot)
End of Democratic Majorities in Congress
Higher gender gap, higher urban / rural
gap; economic concerns high
Democrats party of the two coasts
Polarization of parties?
Clinton Coalition = GOP gains

1992

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2 incumbent Dem Senators lose (GA, NC)
2 incumbent GOP Senators lost (CA, WI)
Net loss of 9 Dem House seats (AR, GA, AL, FL, SC)
1994

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Dems lose 54 US House Seats, lose majority
Southerners, Whites, men largest vote shift to GOP
Clinton Coalition


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1992
Clinton 370 (43%)
Bush 168 (37%)
LA, AR, TN, KY, FL
all Dem
Dems lose seats
in US House, lose
55 seats in ‘94
Clinton Coalition

1996

Clinton 379 (49%)
Dole 159 (41%)


LA, AR, MO, TN,
KY, FL all Dem.
2000 - 2008: Deadlock

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Near even division 2000 - 2008
2000 presidential election a tie

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Old South now solid GOP

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Senate a tie, US House 12 seats
(not so much with AR, LA, FL)
Social issues, security trumped economics
in 2000, 2004
2000 - 2008: Deadlock

Rise of large generational split

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Growth of Latino vote (8% in 2004)

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2000 & 2004 65% of those under 30 voted
Democrat
If they vote….
trending Democrat (out of FL)
2006 Midterm vote referendum on Bush
The Old (?) Map

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2000 Stalemate
Bush 271 (48%)
Gore 266 (48.4)
NH, OH GOP
NM, IA Dem
The Old (?) Map
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2004 Stalemate
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Bush 286 (53%)
Kerry 251 (47%)
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NH Dem
NM, OH, IA GOP
A Realignment in 2008?
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“Durable change in
party coalitions”
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New issues that break
old coalitions
New parties
High interest, high
turnout

1860
1896
1932
1968

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??
1980
1994
What Changed in 2008?

GOP

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
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Nomination of “Outsider”
No clear consensus about
candidate
High turnout
Not leading in fundraising
Defending 12 of 13 most
vulnerable Senators
What Changed in 2008?

Democrats


Nomination of “Outsider”
No clear consensus

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High turnout

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Huge generation split
Huge racial split
Modest gender split
Nearly as high as 1972
Lead in fundraising
McCain vs Obama Dynamic

Different than McCain vs. Clinton
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Obama and the west

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Clinton and the Midwest

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a new coalition (CO, NV, AZ, WI, MN, OR, WA)
the old coalition (OH, PA)
Both appealed to independent voters
Where was the Change?

New Map: West more “Blue”
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IN
ND
MT
NE
DE
UT
VT
MA
VA
+11 Obama
+ 9 Obama
+9 Obama
+9 Obama (+1 EC vote)
+9 Obama
+8 Obama
+8 Obama
+8 Obama
+7 Obama (+13 EC votes)
Where was the Change?

New Map: West more “Blue”
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NV
NM
CT
WI
CA
CO
SD
MI
NC
+7 Obama (+5 EC votes)
+7 Obama (+ 5 EC votes)
+7 Obama
+7 Obama
+7 Obama
+7 Obama (+ 9 EC votes)
+6 Obama
+6 Obama
+6 Obama (+ 15 EC votes)
Where was the Change?

New Map…

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MD
GA
KS
+ 6 Obama
+6 Obama
+5 Obama
Same old thing

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WA + 5 Obama
ME + 4 Obama
IA, FL, NH, NJ, NY, PA + 4 Obama (+ 34 EC votes)
OH + 2 Obama (+20 EC votes)
No change….
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Many w/ GOP gains over 2004

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OK
AR
AL
LA
TN
KY
WV
Who is changing?

Age


Young voters (% Dem)
2000 2004 2008
48% 54% 66%
Over 65 voters
2000 2004 2008
50% 48% 45%
(+18 vs. Gore)
(-5 vs Gore)
Who is changing?

Partisans

Independents (% Dem)
2000 2004 2008
45% 49% 52%
(+7 vs. Gore)
Who is changing?

Race/Ethnicity

African Americans (% Dem)
2000 2004 2008
90% 88% 95%

Latinos (% Dem)
2000 2004 2008
62% 53% 67%
Who is changing?

Race/Ethnicity

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White women (% Dem)
2000 2004 2008
48% 44% 46%
(-2 vs. Gore)
White men (% Dem)
2000 2004 2008
36% 37% 41%
(+5 vs Gore)
What is Changing?

Issue effects

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Economy top concern again
Iraq fading….
Any realigning issue?

slavery, industrialization, Great Depression, Civil
Rights...
Shades of Realignment

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First Dem w/ popular majority since Carter
Big Dem gains in US Senate (+7?)

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OR, NM, CO, VA, NC, NH (AK, MN, GA in play)
LBJ Last Dem to carry seats (+2 in 1964)
RR came in w/ +12 Senate seats in 1980
Dem gains in US House

1930s Last time a party gained +20 in 2x elections
Shades of Realignment

2008 a referendum on Bush, the economy

Any Democrat would have won…

What realigning issue?

Can Democrats build an enduring majority?

New coalition based on younger voters, people
of color, Independents, westerners…..