Policies for adaptation
Anand Patwardhan
Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay
Asian Climate Change Workshop
Indian Institute of Science, July 2011
Why adaptation?
• Asymmetry in distribution of impacts
– Disproportionately larger impacts may be experienced in developing countries
• Mitigation is not enough
– Regardless of mitigation, we are faced with a finite, and significant degree of
anthropogenic climate change
– This is true even if we think a 2 C target is possible, and even more important if
we don’t reach it (quite likely)
• Managing climate risk is important for sustainable development
– We are not well adapted to current climate risks
– A greater focus on adaptation (filling the “adaptation deficit”) may actually help in
advancing the development agenda
July 22, 2011
Anand Patwardhan, IIT-Bombay
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Sensitivity to climate: GDP and Indian Monsoon Rainfall
Impact of a severe
drought on GDP
remains 2 to 5%
throughout, despite the
substantial decrease in
the contribution of
agriculture to GDP over
five decades.
From: Gadgil and Gadgil (2006)
July 22, 2011
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Anand Patwardhan, IIT-Bombay
Evolving thinking on adaptation
• Adaptation viewed purely as a response (to climate change)
– Adjustments made in practices, processes or structures of systems to
projected or actual changes in climate (AR1)
• Adaptation as an element of scenario-impact assessments
– Net impacts = Impacts (Vulnerability, Hazard) – Adaptation (SAR)
• Vulnerability and adaptive capacity as issues of importance in
their own right
– Recognition of an “adaptation deficit” (TAR)
• Evolution in thinking from a mechanistic and sequential view
of impacts, vulnerability & adaptation to a more complex,
process oriented view of climate-society interaction
– Concept of mainstreaming (AR4)
July 22, 2011
Anand Patwardhan, IIT-Bombay
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Useful to think about adaptation as a risk
management problem
Risk: chance of loss or adverse consequence – function of
loss and probability
• What is the source of risk? (Hazard)
• Who / what is at risk? (Exposure)
• How are they at risk and what are the consequences?
(Vulnerability & Impacts)
• How will this risk change in the future? (Future
vulnerability)
• How do we manage risk now and in the future?
(Adaptation & Adaptive Capacity)
July 22, 2011
Anand Patwardhan, IIT-Bombay
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The interaction between coping and climate outcomes
Vulnerability
(flood)
Vulnerability
Coping
range
Vulnerability
(drought)
Vulnerability
(flood)
Coping
range
Vulnerability
Vulnerability
Coping
range
Coping
range
Vulnerability
Vulnerability
(drought)
July 22, 2011
Anand Patwardhan, IIT-Bombay
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Classes of adaptation options
July 22, 2011
Anand Patwardhan, IIT-Bombay
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Typologies and examples
July 22, 2011
Anand Patwardhan, IIT-Bombay
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More examples
Infrastructure/
Technology
Behaviour/
institutional
Coastal
Mangrove replanting
Appropriate hard and soft
engineering for coastal
defence
Settlement/cities
Actions to reduce urban heat
islands
Reduced groundwater
extraction.
Flood risk insurance
Water use efficiency, land
area expansion
Enhanced zoning and
planning to reduce hazard
Evolution of collective action
institutions for recovery and
protection
Zoning and planning to
reduce hazard incidence
Agriculture
9
July 22, 2011
Anand Patwardhan, IIT-Bombay
Adoption of drought proof
varieties; Land distribution;
crop insurance, commodities
exchanges
Putting adaptation into practice: mainstreaming
or integration
Resource management:
water, forestry
Adaptation
Disaster management:
climate-related hazards
July 22, 2011
Development activities:
infrastructure, public
services
Anand Patwardhan, IIT-Bombay
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Development planning
• Because development planning authority is local,
possibility of mal-adaptation because the climate signal
is at a scale that is not “seen”
– Securing urban water supply
• Outcomes / benefits of development interventions
may be at risk due to climate change
– Energy / coastal infrastructure
• Can a focus on adaptation help catalyze investment to
meet the “adaptation deficit” and thus contribute to
development outcomes?
– Good idea to seek co-benefits, but are we giving up “new
and additional” resources for adaptation?
July 22, 2011
Anand Patwardhan, IIT-Bombay
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Disaster management
• Short-term coping vs. long-term adaptation
– At what point does coping effectively become
unviable?
• Disaster management often focuses on relief
– In terms of adaptive capacity, what is more
important – ability to reduce immediate impact
(relief) vs. ability to restore flow of goods &
services (recovery)
July 22, 2011
Anand Patwardhan, IIT-Bombay
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Resource management
• Operational, planning and policy decisions in
key sectors: water, health, conservation &
forest management
– How useful is the 30-year climate normal as the
basis for planning?
• Going from one-time to on-going response
– Does the institutional set-up have the ability to
perceive change, assess it, and formulate
response on an on-going basis?
July 22, 2011
Anand Patwardhan, IIT-Bombay
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Multilateral response: Adaptation in the Convention
•
According to Article 4.1 Parties are committed to:
–
–
•
Article 4.4 states that:
–
–
•
•
The developed country Parties and other developed Parties included in Annex II shall also assist
the developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate
change in meeting the costs of adaptation to those adverse effects.
Basis, quantum and delivery of funding not specified
Articles 4.8 and 4.9 of the Convention make specific reference to developing country
Parties, in particular least developed and most vulnerable countries, and funding and
transfer of technology “to meet the specific needs and concerns of developing country
Parties arising from the adverse effects of climate change”
A staged response has dominated thinking on adaptation:
–
–
–
•
Formulate, implement, publish and regularly update national and, where appropriate, regional
programmes containing measures… to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change (Art. 4.1.
(b)); and
Cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change; develop and elaborate
appropriate and integrated plans for coastal zone management, water resources and agriculture,
and for the protection and rehabilitation of areas, particularly in Africa, affected by drought and
desertification, as well as floods (Art. 4.1 (e)).
Stage 1: Planning and assessment (including impact & vulnerability assessment)
Stage 2: Identifying and evaluating adaptation measures
Stage 3: Implementing adaptation measures
Unfortunately, progress has been rather limited, little beyond research,
assessment & capacity-building (stages 1 & 2)
July 22, 2011
Anand Patwardhan, IIT-Bombay
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Key questions
• What is “adaptation”? The adaptation = development conceptualization has led to a
peculiar situation:
– Because adaptation = development, “normal” development actions ought to take care of the
problem, as long as agents (and decisions) are “fully informed”
– If adaptation = development, donor countries fear that “normal” development cam get put under
adaptation projects, thus “opening the floodgates” in terms of demand on resources
• How much is needed?
– Costs of adaptation, dealing with chronic vs. acute change
• How to generate the resources?
– Adequacy, predictability, new & additional?
• What to support?
– Characterization of adaptation demand, with standardized methodologies and metrics
• How to deliver?
– Appropriate institutional structure (GEF vs. Adaptation Fund Board) and financing instruments
(grant vs. “concessional” finance)
• Recognize that in the case of adaptation (unlike mitigation), for most sectors, the actions
being supported will be those of public entities
• Difficulty with directly applying ideas from mitigation (baselines, additionality, incremental
cost, global / local benefits)
July 22, 2011
Anand Patwardhan, IIT-Bombay
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Estimates of costs of adaptation
•
UNFCCC, 2007: Additional investment and financial flows in 2030 for adaptation amount to tens of billions of USD, estimates
depend on underlying scenarios
•
•
Adaptation costs depend on level of mitigation activities
Most studies based on the original World Bank approach: taking the fraction of the investment that is “climatesensitive” and applying a mark-up factor to estimate the cost of climate-proofing
Many problems: limited range of impacts, only infrastructure measures, no transaction costs, ignore range of
outcomes, lack of “bottom-up” validation
•
Sector
Areas / Adaptation measures
considered
Agriculture, forestry
and fisheries
Production and processing
Global
(billion USD)
Developing
countries (%)
14
50 %
Research and development
Extension activities
Water supply
Water supply infrastructure
11
80 %
Human Health
Treating increased cases of
diarrhoeal disease, malnutrition
and malaria
5
100 %
Coastal zone
Beach nourishment and dykes
11
40 %
Infrastructure
New infrastructure
8130
25 %
July 22, 2011
Anand Patwardhan, IIT-Bombay
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Comparing costs with funding
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Sorting through the adaptation –
development linkage
•
•
•
•
Burden-sharing with respect to resource mobilization
Co-benefits
Additionality: better characterization of adaptation demand
Nature of additionality
1. Integrating climate risk into socio-economic activities to ‘climate-proof’ a
current or future socio-economic activity to harness development benefits,
e.g. airport in coastal zone
2. Expanding adaptive capacity to deal with future and not only current risks to
harness development and adaptation benefits, e.g. crop insurance
3. Directly addressing observed impacts from climate change to harness
adaptation benefits, e.g. changing Malaria zones
• Nature of intervention
– Context (projects, programmes and policies)
– Type (research, capacity-building, investments)
July 22, 2011
Anand Patwardhan, IIT-Bombay
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Analyzing the interventions in the National Adaptation Plans of
Action (NAPA’s)
Intervention
Type of intervention
Context of intervention
Research and
assessments
Disaster risk
reduction
Programmes
Projects
Integrating climate
risk into socioeconomic activities
Research on micro
hydro-power
production
(Burundi)
Introduce drought
tolerant crop
varieties
(Comoros)
Incorporate
adaptations from
NAPAs in Ministry
Operational Plans
(Kiribati)
Increase water
supplies to combat
increasing drought
(Comoros)
Expanding
adaptive capacity
to deal with future
and not only
current risks
Research on
drought, flood and
saline tolerant
crop varieties
(Bangladesh)
Strengthen early
warning systems
(Zambia)
Integrated
protection and
management of
coastal zones
(Cape Verde)
Plant vegetation to
reduce risks from
storms
(Cambodia)
Directly
addressing
impacts from
climate change
Improve
understanding of
groundwater
resources in light
of persistent
drought
(Mauritania)
River flood
warning system
(Bhutan)
Mainstreaming
adaptation into
sectoral
programmes
(Bangladesh)
Lowering of water
levels in the
Thorthormi Lake to
reduce risk of a
future GLOF
(Bhutan)
Additionality
July 22, 2011
Anand Patwardhan, IIT-Bombay
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Negotiated co-financing based on characterization of demand
Intervention
Type of intervention
Research and
assessments
Context of intervention
Disaster risk
reduction
Programmes
Projects
Additionality
Integrating climate
risk into socioeconomic activities
Full cost
Negotiated cofinancing
depending on
sector and project/
Full costs of
marginal
adjustments
Negotiated cofinancing
depending on
sector and project/
Full costs of
marginal
adjustments
Negotiated cofinancing
depending on
sector and project/
Full cost of
marginal
adjustments
Expanding
adaptive capacity
to deal with future
and not only
current risks
Negotiated cofinancing
Negotiated cofinancing
depending on
sector and project
Negotiated cofinancing
depending on
sector and project
Negotiated cofinancing
depending on
sector and project
Directly
addressing
impacts from
climate change
Full cost
Full cost
Full cost
Full cost
July 22, 2011
Anand Patwardhan, IIT-Bombay
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Challenges
• Perception
– How do we bring the long-term into today’s decisions?
• Planning and evaluation
– Methodologies and metrics (costs, benefits)
• Constraints & barriers to response
– Resources, institutions, political will
• Path dependency
– Possibility of mal-adaptation
• Limits of adaptation
– How much is possible with adaptation? Residual vulnerabilities will be large
in a 4 C world
• Non-marginal impacts, non-linearity, thresholds
– Existing methodologies break down
July 22, 2011
Anand Patwardhan, IIT-Bombay
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To conclude
• Adaptation is not an option – it is a necessity
• Adaptation is required now – managing climate risk is
essential for sustainable development
• Adaptation is a process – it needs to be institutionalized
• What we are adapting to is not fully clear – and may never be
fully clear
• We may not be able to identify optimal (first best) strategies –
robust (second best) strategies may be better
• As a start we need to invest in research, assessment and
capacity-building
July 22, 2011
Anand Patwardhan, IIT-Bombay
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