2 deg map to go here
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NI IHEEM May 2014 Climate Change Alex Hill, Chief Advisor’s Office Alex.hill@metoffice.gov.uk © Crown copyright Met Office From the Global to the Local • Global • AR5 & IPCC • Attribution • Local • Understanding Means & Extremes • Examples © Crown copyright Met Office From the Global to the Local www.emeraldinsight.com © Crown copyright Met Office Global WG2 AR5 Risk Global WG2 AR5 © Crown copyright Met Office Global WG2 AR5 Emissions cuts make little difference for next few decades Ongoing increases in global greenhouse gas emissions If global emissions peak within next few years then decline Representative Concentration Pathways Key risks Global WG2 AR5 AR5 Major Crops © Crown copyright Met Office Health impacts • Up to 2050’s Exacerbation • VH Confidence • Towards 2100 Increase in ill-health especially in developing regions •high confidence. © Crown copyright Met Office 2ºC rise Links & Consequences Change in temperature from pre-industrial climate 0 More heatwaves Some risk of melting ice Ocean Acidification Forest fire © Crown copyright Met Office Some increased crops 2 deg map to go here 1 2 3 4 5 Reduced crops Forest fire Current City population • 3-10 million • 10-20 million 6 7 8 9 4ºC rise Links & Consequences Change in temperature from pre-industrial climate 1 2 3 Ocean Acidification Rainforest loss © Crown copyright Met Office 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Methane release Melting ice More heatwaves 4 Increased drought Forest fire Reduced crops Stronger tropical storms Current City population • 3-10 million • 10-20 million Understanding the local © Crown copyright Met Office (Defra project code GA0204) A climate change risk assessment for Northern Ireland January 2012 Contractors: HR Wallingford AMEC Environment & Infrastructure UK Ltd The Met Office Collingwood Environmental Planning Alexander Ballard Ltd Paul Watkiss Associates Metroeconomica © Crown copyright Met Office IMPACT Effect Summer Temperatures Winter Temperatures Impact bio-physical systems Terrestrial environment Coastal and marine environments Risk assessment Winter Rainfall Summer Rainfall Sea Level © Crown copyright Met Office Natural environment Agriculture and forestry Business Buildings and infrastructure Health and wellbeing UKCP09 Three different emission scenarios Seven different timeframes 25km grid, 16 admin regions, 23 river-basins and 9 marine regions © Crown copyright Met Office Increase in probability of extremes in a warmer climate • Temperature Temperature in now future New average Probability of occurrence More hot extremes Fewer cold extremes Hot temperature extremes Cold temperature extremes Cold threshold © Crown copyright Met Office Slide by Erika Average More record hot extremes Hot threshold (After IPCC 2007 & Karl et al. 2008) Warmest day © Crown copyright Met Office 2 deg c Ave Europe Temp anomaly (wrt 1961-90) °C Perspective - The Future © Crown copyright Met Office 2060s observations Met Office Projections 2003 2040s Heatwaves Peaks in death rate coincides with peaks in temperatures 2000 extra deaths in the UK 1,800 40 1,700 35 1,600 30 C o 1,400 25 1,300 20 1,200 1,100 Average daily deaths 1998-2002 Average daily deaths 15 ONS Estimated daily deaths 2003 1,000 Daily deaths 2003 Maximum temperature (London) 10 Maximum temperature (London) 900 800 01-Jul © Crown copyright Met Office 5 08-Jul 15-Jul 22-Jul 29-Jul 05-Aug 12-Aug 19-Aug 26-Aug temperature no. of deaths 1,500 Adapting now, mitigating for the future? Mitigation Adaptation IPCC 20C CRC © Crown copyright Met Office Some Output Winter Rain 2040s © Crown copyright Met Office Some Output Winter Rain 2080s © Crown copyright Met Office Sea Level Rise © Crown copyright Met Office Adapt now, mitigate for the future Impact bio-physical systems Terrestrial environment Coastal and marine environments Risk assessment Natural environment Agriculture and forestry Business Buildings and infrastructure Health and wellbeing © Crown copyright Met Office © Crown copyright Met Office
