Public Opinion Dynamics Towards
June 2015 Elections in Turkey
5 May 2015
Ali Çarkoğlu
S. Erdem Aytaç
About the Study
•
•
•
•
Face to face interviews with 2201 participants from 49 provinces
Participants selected by means of random sampling from Address Based Population Registration
System (ABPRS)
Fieldwork carried out between 19 March and 26 April 2015
Sponsored by the Open Society Foundation, Koç University and Ohio State University, School of
Communication
Turkey’s most important
problems
Opinions about issues related to
democracy
Freedom of speech
Do you think people can freely express their views
without fear in Turkey?
80
Yes, certainly
60
49
38
40
33 32
22
20
Usually yes
16
26
18
20
15
8
7
0
All voters
There are limitations
AKP voters
Opposition voters
Certainly no
Opinions about presidential
system
Support for presidential system
A presidential system is a better system of government
for Turkey than a parliamentary one.
Don’t agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
No opinion/No answer
100
77
80
63
60
46
43
38
40
31
27
20
13
14
21 19
18
19
14
6
11
3
14
17
7
0
All voters
AKP voters
CHP voters
MHP voters
HDP voters
Government systems in the world
Today most democracies have parliamentary systems of
government rather than a presidential one as in the
U.S.
80
60
40
29
27
22
15
20
1
5
0
Absolutely
wrong
Probably
wrong
Not sure
Probably true Absolutely
true
No
opinion/No
answer
Opinions on a new Constitution
Do you think that Turkey needs a new Constitution?
Yes
No
No opinion/No answer
100
80
80
60
60
59
60
59
40
31
28
20 20
20
19
22
12
10
14
6
0
All voters
AKP voters
CHP voters
MHP voters
HDP voters
Should the ruling and opposition parties reach a
consensus for a new Constitution that Turkey needs?
They should reach a consensus
The majority party should be able to make a new Constitution as it pleases
No opinion/No answer
100
81
81
80
68
66
60
50
40
20
31
18 16
19
11
8
12
7
13
19
0
All voters
AKP voters
CHP voters
MHP voters
HDP voters
Opinions on the Kurdish
question/Peace process
The Kurdish issue can be resolved through the economic
development of Southeastern and Eastern Anatolia rather than
through the recognition of ethnic and cultural identities.
Don't agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
100
80
68
67
65
60
59
53
40
26
20
13
10
All voters
AKP voters
14
16
0
CHP voters
MHP voters
HDP voters
More authority/powers can be given to local administrations in
order to resolve the Kurdish issue.
Don't agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
100
75
80
60
51
43
41
40
43
33
31
23
29
20
11
0
All voters
AKP voters
CHP voters
MHP voters
HDP voters
Primary school education should be conducted in Turkish
regardless of pupils’ ethnicity.
Don't agree
Neither agree nor disagree
100
91
85
78
77
80
55
60
35
40
20
Agree
12
8
5
6
0
All voters
AKP voters
CHP voters
MHP voters
HDP voters
A general amnesty applying to all armed and non-armed
members of the PKK cannot be accepted, even if it would help to
resolve the Kurdish issue.
Don't agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
100
74
80
75
64
56
55
60
40
25
18
20
20
19
9
0
All voters
AKP voters
CHP voters
MHP voters
HDP voters
The definition of citizenship in the Constitution should become
more inclusive by embracing different ethnicities like Circassians,
Arabs, and Kurds.
Don't agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
100
77
80
60
43
42
40
47
38
38
29
29
21
20
9
0
All voters
AKP voters
CHP voters
MHP voters
HDP voters
Citizens should be able to receive service from public offices in
their native languages in addition to Turkish.
Don't agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
100
77
80
60
40
55
51
40
36
39
32
26
27
20
7
0
All voters
AKP voters
CHP voters
MHP voters
HDP voters
The ultimate goal of the Kurdish political movement in
Turkey is to establish an independent state.
Don't agree
Agree
Neither agree nor disagree
No opinion/No answer
100
76
80
66
61
57
60
39
40
20
13
10
33
14
6
0
All voters
AKP voters
CHP voters
MHP voters
HDP voters
Opinions about repression of
devout religious people and
secularists, aspirations for sharia
rule and threat to one’s way of life
Can Alevis freely worhip? 75% Yes, 14% No for 2015
Ideological shift, 1990-2015
Opinions about the leaders
Opinions about the economic
situation
Perceptions on unemployment rate
What is the unemployment rate in Turkey nowadays?
60
Less than 5%
50
44
40
36
30
20
About 10%
About 15%
26
18
About 5%
About 20%
18
14
Above 20%
10
No opinion/No
answer
0
All voters
AKP voters
Opposition voters
Perception on unemployment trends
Thinking about the last 12 months, do you think the
unemployment rate has been increasing, decreasing, or
hovering about the same level?
100
82
80
63
Decreasing
60
About the same level
36
40
Increasing
28
20
17
No opinion/No answer
20
10
10
4
0
All voters
AKP voters
Opposition voters
Performance evaluations of the
government
How successful or unsuccessfull, in your opinion, has the AKP government
been in the past 4 years in the following areas?
Perceptions of corruption?
Will the general elections be carried
out in a fair manner?
Perceptions of Corruption
Perceptions of corruption
Which of the below statements is closer to your
opinion?
Very few public officials are
involved in corruption
80
Less than half of the public
officials are involved in
corruption
60
40
The majority of public
officials are involved in
corruption
34
32
27
25
21 23
20
20
12
14
19
13
5
No opinion/No answer
0
All voters
AKP voters
Almost all public officials are
involved in corruption
Opposition voters
About the election
Do you think the approaching 7 June 2015 elections will
be held in a fair manner?
80
59
60
Will not be fair at all
40
Will not be quite fair
40
23
20
Will be sort of fair
29
23 25
24
Will be absolutely fair
20
20
8
3
6
0
All voters
AKP voters
Opposition voters
About the election
After the votes has been cast in the upcoming election,
do you believe that the votes will be counted in a fair
manner?
80
60
53
Don't believe at all
38
40
Don't quite believe
34
Inclined to believe
25
22 24 22 23
Believe absolutely
17
20
11
6
4
0
All voters
AKP voters
Opposition voters
Thanks,
Questions??