Enabling Activities for the
Preparation of Jamaica’s Second
National Communication to the
UNFCC
Water Resources and Agriculture
Dr. Mark Futter
Initial V&A Workshop
5th November 2007
Jamaica’s Second National Communication
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
A short history lesson….
What do we want to achieve with the
SNC ….?
How are we going to get there….?
How vulnerable are we now….?
How will we assess vulnerabilities and
develop adaptation strategies under
future climate…?
Concluding comments
A short history lesson….the
INC…..
It will be a widely read document that is
easily accessible to all
It will have “ownership” by a wide range
of stakeholders (public, private &
voluntary sectors)
It will lead to positive policy changes
and programmes to reduce vulnerability
for all Jamaicans
It will be a document that informs
Jamaica’s sustainable development
What do we want to achieve
with the SNC…?
“The consultant will be required to
conduct integrated assessments
of biophysical effects and the
potential socio-economic impacts
on the agricultural and water
resources sectors of Jamaica.
The assessments must
determine the vulnerability to the
impacts of climate change and
the adaptation measures that will
be required to mitigate these
effects”
Sensitivity
Adaptive
Capacity
Exposure
What do we want to achieve
with the SNC…?
Questions
Agricultural Sector
Water Resources
Sector
What is of concern?
Food production & food
security, incomes and
export earnings
Protection of the
aquatic environment
and water supply to all
sectors of society,
Who may be affected?
Ag. Workers & rural
communities, agrobusiness and food
processing industries
Customers of NWC /
NIC / private supplies,
those dependent on
healthy aquatic
environment
How far into the future
is of concern?
To 2050
What is the purpose of
the assessment?
To recommend adaptation strategies at a range
of scales / across sectors
What do we want to achieve
with the SNC…?
Questions
Agricultural Sector
Water Resources Sector
What kind of output
is needed?
One that raises awareness with stakeholders and
leads to changes in policy and practice
What resources are
available?
One person formally (+ stakeholder support)
How much time is
available?
Until end of February 2008
What level of
stakeholder support
is sought?
Whatever is offered – but expect this to vary
depending upon resources available
How are we going to get
there…..?



World Development
UNDP Adaptation
Policy Framework
NAPA Guidance
UKCIP
Global
Global GHG
Global climate models
Impacts
Vulnerability
(social)
Climate
Adaptation
Policy
Vulnerability
(physical)
Adaptive Capacity
Indicators based on:

Economic resources;
technology; Information & skills,
institutions, Equity


Past
Present
IPCC Seven Steps
U.S. Country Studies
Program
UNEP Handbook
Local
Future
How are we going to get
there…..?

UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework
2. Assess
current
vulnerability
3. Characterize
future
climate-related
risks
4. Develop
adaptation
strategy
5. Continue
adaptation process
Increase adaptive capacity
Engage stakeholders
1. Scope
project
How vulnerable are we now …?
PIOJ Agriculture Production
Index 1986-2006
1986=100
How vulnerable are we now …?
Banana Crop: Hurricane Ivan destroyed the
entire crop, for export and domestic
consumption.
8,000 people out of work for 6-9 months
until crop production resumes
Coffee Crop: Ivan led to loss of berries in
45% of coffee producing areas and
destruction of 5% of coffee trees.
Withdrawal of some farmers from
production due to expense of insurance
coupled with low world prices
How vulnerable are we now …?
Sugar Cane Crop: Hurricane Ivan led to
broken and uprooted canes as well as
flooding in large areas
Impact is to reduce sugar content ,
decrease sugar yield and increase
processing costs
Livestock production: poultry, goats
and pigs were most affected by Ivan
and milk production decreased due to
the death of dairy cattle
How vulnerable are we now …?
Annual Water Resources Balance for 2005
(units 106m3/yr)
Water
Resources
Management
Unit
Demands
2005
Surplus/
Deficit
Demand/
Resources
%
18-Hope River 74.5
87.6
-13.1
117.5
19-Rio Cobre 483.7
305.2
178.5
63.1
20 – Rio
Minho
175.8
90.3
66.1
266.1
How vulnerable are we now …?
Significant losses
in water
distribution systems
Investment
in improved water
resources
management
Lack of
surface
Saline
intrusion reservoir
into coastal storage
aquifers
How will we assess adaption
measures for future climate …?
Climate
Scenarios
Socio-Economic
(Baseline) Scenario(s)
Water Resources
Development
Plan Water
Balance Model
Sectoral
Adaptation
Measures
Water Balance
Model WMU
Results
REVIEW
PROGRESS
YES
NO
Vulnerability
Reduced ?
How will we assess adaption
measures for future climate …?
Type of Model
Key Characteristics
Agro-climatic models and
GIS
Statistical models and yield
functions
Based on simple calculations and effective for
comparing across regions & crops, but only consider
climate
Process-based models
Include climate, soils and management, widely used
and calibrated and can be used for adaption
assessments. Require significant data input for best
results
Economic models
Incorporate land values, commodity prices and
economic outcomes, and therefore useful to assess
market based and financial adaptation measures – but
are complex and require significant data input
Household and village
models
Look at current coping strategies under existing
conditions , but do not capture future stresses if
different from current
Based on empirical relationships between crop
responses and climate, but do not explain causal
mechanisms, nor future climate-crop relationships
Challenges…..
Scale and complexity of problem
(dependencies)
Project resources
Project timetable
Availability of tools