Re-engineering the Production
Process
EGOWS
15th June 2004
Peter Trevelyan & Graham Mallin
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Why Re-engineer?
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Greater flexibility & scalability in meeting new and changing
customer requirements.
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Provide the platform for new products & services for the future.
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Reduce the costs involved in the supply of products and services to
customers.
Benefits being delivered
Flexibility
Cost savings
• Responsive to data requirements
• Reduced costs of obs supply
• IT more responsive to demand
• More cost efficient development
• Developments quicker to market
• Reduced costs of IT infrastructure
• New services quicker to market
• Reduced costs of telecomms
• Reduced costs of Forecast Production
• Reduced cost of service creation
Maintaining Improvements
• Maintain capability and reduced cost base
• Metrics to allow better business decisions
• Service delivery management
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Six main work streams
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IT Infrastructure – Delivering a scalable, flexible IT infrastructure which meets
the needs of the future Met Office.
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Adding Knowledge and Value – To take data and information and add
knowledge and value to it to allow service creation and delivery.
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Obtaining data & Information – A scalable and cost effective observing
network that supports more than just ‘meteorological’ observations.
Six main work streams
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Service Creation & Delivery – Ensuring that our Re-engineering project
delivers what the Met Office needs …… and is ready for what Re-engineering
will deliver.
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People – To effectively manage the people transition
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Process - To enable and facilitate Re-engineering to deliver an updated set of
business processes.
Re-engineering Operating
Principles
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The Core Re-engineering team will act as ‘Design
Authority’
– Determining new environment and processes
– Co-ordinate & provide guidance to projects /
programmes
– Each Development project will have a ‘Reengineering review’ milestone before
commencing.
– Managing the overall Re-engineering Programme
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Re-engineering Operating
Principles
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Programme Priority – V High.
Programme starts in earnest April 04.
2 year implementation.
– Sets the foundation for ongoing improvement.
Regular deliverables.
Stick to the target architecture - challenge all
exceptions.
External expertise where it can add value will be
used.
Some of the challenges
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Implementing lasting change.
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Priority of Re-engineering v other key objectives.
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Learning curve for the organisation.
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Involving customers.
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Managing the programme and not the detail.
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It’s not a panacea!
Adding Knowledge and Value
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A consistent set of high quality products efficiently
produced to enable the cost effective creation of
services for customers.
Adding Knowledge and Value
Deliverables
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Centralisation of product creation
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Increased automation of product creation
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Meteorologically consistent products
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Increased flexibility in the creation of services from products.
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Changed forecaster roles to include consultant meteorologist
Obtaining Data and Information
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A scalable and cost effective observing network that
supports more that just ‘meteorological’
observations
Obtaining Data and Information
Deliverables
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More scalable and flexible observing systems
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Standard data processing methodologies
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Targeted Observing and Virtual Observations introduced
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Reduced manual involvement in observation creation, collection and
processing
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Centralised observing network support function
Service Creation & Delivery
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Ensuring that our Re-engineering project delivers
what the Met Office needs …
and is ready for what Re-engineering will deliver.
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Service Creation & Delivery
Deliverables
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Detailed business requirements in order to guide Re-engineering
Roadmap
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Ensuring that we deliver what the business needs
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Migration of customers to new architecture.
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Introduction of Service Delivery management
IT Infrastructure
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Delivering a scalable, flexible IT infrastructure
which meets the needs of the future Met Office
IT Infrastructure
Deliverables
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More Distributed and scaleable IT Architecture with common standards and support tools –
leading to systems and support that are more responsive to changes in demand
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Unified Development Process – using up to date efficient tools with highly skilled
development staff – quicker and cheaper to deliver software.
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Clearer “cost of development” model, with Unified Development model.
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Removal of redundant architecture and legacy systems – reduce IT costs
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Improved IT Governance
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Ability to collect metrics
IT Infrastructure
Benefits
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IT systems and support more responsive to changes in demand
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Developments quicker to market
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More cost efficient development
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Reduced running cost of IT infrastructure
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Reduced running cost of telecoms
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Improved IT Infrastructure governance
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Improved production process metrics
IT Infrastructure – Issues
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New technologies
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Development Process
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Demonstrate capability early
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MoD, security etc
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Some customers have long timescales
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Logical Data Store (LDS) will take time!
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E-commerce strategy
IT Infrastructure Timeline
Apr04
Apr05
Enterprise
architecture
Complete
development
process roll-out
Apr06
Applications migrated
Governance
adopted
Web portal
established
Telecoms infrastructure
LDS design
LDS fully
operational
GPCS migration
complete
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Dec06
IT Architecture
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Strategic IT themes
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Flexible, resilient, highly available, secure
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Distributed, component-based framework
– Java J2EE (where fit for purpose)
– Service Oriented Architecture
– Middleware … the “glue”
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Exploit existing “legacy” systems
– We’re not starting from scratch!
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Consolidation of the “multitude” of platforms
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Linux
Architecture Roadmap
IT Strategy
Principles
Context
Requirements
Overview
Business
Requirements
Component
Model
Data
Model
Conceptual Level
IT Requirements
Specification Level
Physical Level
Implementation Plan
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Operational
Model
Management
Process
Architecture Context
Customers
and
Partners
Browserbased Internet
Clients
Wireless
Devices
External
Systems
Delivery
Bureaux
External Web
Services
Directories
External Data
Sources
Research
Systems and
Resources
Met Office
IT Architecture
Measurement
Instrumentation
Browserbased Intranet
Clients
Desktop
Applications
Existing
(Legacy) IT
Systems and
Packaged
Solutions
Desktop
Hardware
Voice
Telephony
Networks
Desktop
Services
Supporting
Infrastructure
Met Office Users,
Systems and
Resources
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Third Party
Service
Providers
External
Systems
Architecture Overview
External
Services
VPNs /
Private
Links
Gateway
Services
Product
Creation and
Analysis
Services
(J2EE*)
Logical Data
Store Replicated
Subset
(Oracle)
Supporting
Services
Core Production
Systems
(Non J2EE)
(i.e. CRM, HR,
Finanace)
Sensor
Network
External
Services
Application
Services
(J2EE)
Web Services
Gateway
Integration
Services
Intranet
Clients
(Process,
Application and
Data Integration)
Logical Data
Store
(Oracle)
Internet
Internet
Clients
Authentication
Services
Presentation
Services
(Web)
Presentation
Services
(Web)
Application
Services
(J2EE)
Product
Creation and
Analysis
Services
(J2EE*)
* Native J2EE or
J2EE Integrated
System, Network and Security Management Services
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Revised Business Processes
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To enable and facilitate Re-engineering to deliver an
updated set of business processes which:
– reflect the changes resulting from the Programme and
– meet the evolving future needs of the Met Office.
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Revised Business Processes
Deliverables
To enable and facilitate Re-engineering to deliver
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new production process map
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new overall Met Office process map
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new organisational structure
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continued ISO9001 certification
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demonstrated process improvements using new performance measures.
Creating the 4D Data Cube
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The source of “Environmental Intelligence”
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Need to transform the output from the forecaster into a form that
can be used by cooperating processes.
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The majority of the content needs to be digital as it is not easy to
make quantitative use of a picture.
Creating the 4D Data Cube
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The forecaster needs tools that enable them to “digitally” edit the atmosphere
and in particular gridded data (“On Screen Field Modification”).
» The edit needs to be in time and space.
» The process must be intuitive to the forecaster.
» The edit process needs to be scientifically sound i.e. the “balance of
the atmosphere needs to be maintained.
» The forecaster need only edit one field and all others be changed.
Forecasting Process
The transform of the Meteorologist’s
View of the world into one that forms a
key component required by the “Product
Tailoring Process” and also a key
element of the “Common Operating
Picture” required by all Key Decision
makers.
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Adding value to model data
Field modification
Gridded
data set
from NWP
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Grid
modification
Modified
gridded
data set
OSFM
 A tool that allows the forecaster to edit, in four dimensions NWP data.
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The resultant amended data is saved in the database and therefore available to all other
“down stream” process.
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The forecaster edits fields on the basis of supporting data.
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The resulting digital database will form the basis of most down stream product creation.
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The scales can vary from Global to high resolution Meso-Scale models.
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The OSFM process can be proved to add value through objective verification.
The OSFM User Interface and Display
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The change in Equivalent Potential Temperature as
a result of editing the surface pressure.
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The change in Equivalent Potential Temperature as
a result of editing the surface pressure.
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Mesoscale OSFM
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Developed in 2002 to augment OSFM
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Expanded parameter list includes fog probability and cloud
prediction
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Model merge facility from successive runs or different models
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Ability to apply operators (multiply, add etc) to selected cloud and
precipitation fields
Need to evaluate the
OSFM process to ensure
it delivers value.
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Proving the value of FITL
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Met Office routinely proving the value of human forecaster with
verification stats
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Quantifying the value of modifying certain model fields (cloud,
precip, fog etc)
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Recognize models are increasingly reliable
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In JET need methodology for how forecaster will operate in future
OSFM Benefits
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Enables forecasters to provide best guidance
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More emphasis on understanding models
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Generates graphical guidance information
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Excellent “what if” analysis tool
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Allows the forecaster more time for ‘meteorology’
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Modified gridded data for use in automated product generation
Adding value to model data
Derived Data
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Calculate derived data for special applications
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CAT, Icing, Thunderstorm Indices etc
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Either as “one-off” or routinely
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Only need to send model data to user
– Reduce transmissions
– User creates data required
– Flexibility to use different model data
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Medium-Range Forecasting The Effect of Chaos
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The atmosphere is a chaotic system: “… one flap of a seagull’s wing may forever
change the future course of the weather”, (Lorenz, 1963)
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Up to about 3 days ahead we can usually forecast the general pattern of the weather
quite accurately
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Beyond 3 days Chaos
becomes a major factor
Tiny errors in how we analyse the current state of
the atmosphere lead to large errors in the forecast –
these are both equally valid 4-day forecasts!
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Ensembles...
Deterministic Forecast
Forecast uncertainty
Initial Condition
Uncertainty
X
Analysis
Climatology
time
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Ensembles
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In an ensemble forecast we run the model
many times from slightly different initial
conditions
These provide a range of ‘equally probable’
forecast solutions
Allow forecasters to:
– Assess possible outcomes
– Estimate risks and probabilities
– Gauge confidence
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ECMWF Ensemble prediction
System (EPS)
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51 members:
– Control run from unperturbed
ECMWF analysis
– 25 perturbations, each added to
and subtracted from the control
analysis to create a pair of runs
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ECMWF model at 80km
resolution
Summarising information
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The Ensemble contains a huge amount of information – need
to summarise
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Tubing (left) identifies most probable (top) and most extreme
(below) forecasts
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Clustering groups together similar forecasts
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Cyclone
Tracking
(right) shows
low centres
EPS Meteogram
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Plot of ensemble spread
– Box shows 25-75% range
– Whiskers show 95% confidence range
– Central bar shows median – can indicate
most probable
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Summarises forecast at one location for 10
days ahead
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Met Office calibrates ensemble forecasts to
improve quality
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Stacked Probability Charts
Ideal for identifying “Weather Windows”
100%
Prob
0%
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Probability Forecasts from
Ensembles
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Ensembles help forecasters
assess the most probable
weather
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Probability forecasts help end
users to assess and manage
risk in an uncertain world
Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
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Tropical Cyclones are quite small but very damaging
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Forecasting the exact position of landfall is important but difficult
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Ensemble provides a range of tracks
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Hurricane Isabel, September
2003
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From these we can estimate the
probability of a storm strike in
the next 3 days