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WebCT
Everybody should have
access to WebCT by now
Log on at webcourses.dit.ie
If you can’t get onto the
course pages just let me
know
WebCT will be used for publishing the notes,
communicating with the class and for on-line
discussions
Problem Solving,
Communication
& Innovation:
Thinkertoys,
Force Field Analysis
& S.W.O.T. Analysis
Course Website: http://www.comp.dit.ie/bmacnamee
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Where Do We Go From Here?
Where do we go from here?
– Generate some more ideas
– Evaluate possible plans of action
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Contents
Following on from the brainstorming that we
did last week, let’s take a look at some things
we can do to help idea generation, and to try
to decide which ideas to follow up on
– Thinkertoys
•
•
•
•
False Faces (Reversals)
Cherry Split (Fractionation)
Slice & Dice (Attribute Listing)
Phoenix (Questions)
– Force Field Analysis
– SWOT analysis
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Note About Usefulness
While we are pitching these ideas today as
useful in conjunction with brainstorming,
they are all useful in their own right as
problem solving techniques
Try to keep this in mind as we consider
them
Based on ideas from “Thinkertoys”, Michael Michalko
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False Faces
Oftentimes the basic
assumptions on which we
build the solutions to problems
prove not to be as rock solid
as we thought
Reversing assumptions can be
a very good way to stir creative
thought about a problem
The false faces (or reversals) technique
attempts to use this idea
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Historical False Faces Example
The predominate thinking in manufacturing in
the early 1900s was
“bring the people to the
work”
Henry Ford reversed
this to say “bring the work to the people” and
perfected the assembly line
Historical Note: Henry Ford did not invent the assembly line. The assembly
line was first patented in America by Ransom Eli Olds in 1901 but had been
invented in 1801 by Marc Isambard Brunel (Father of Isambard Kingdom
Brunel).
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How To Use False Faces
The process of using false faces proceeds
as follows:
– State your challenge
– List your assumptions
– Challenge your fundamental assumptions
• Reverse each assumption – write down the
opposite of each one
– What new ideas are generated by the
reversal?
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False Faces Example 1
Working for a large search engine company
we have collected huge amounts of data on
peoples’ search terms – what can we do
with this data?
Assumption: We should collect people’s
search terms
Reversal: We should not collect people’s
search terms
New Idea: Offer a premium service, users of
which will not have their data recorded
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False Faces Example 2
Easily distributed digital music is now a fact
of life. As workers in a large music
publishing company how can we turn this to
our advantage?
Assumption: Sell music to people
Reversal: Buy music from people
New Idea: Become a facilitator for new
bands, paying them to make their music
available for download online
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Cherry Split
Based on ideas from “Thinkertoys”, Michael Michalko
Simple word association can often be used
to generate ideas
This is the basis of the cherry split
problem solving technique
By generating a collection of
words around a problem we
hope to stimulate new
ideas using the words
and combinations of the
words
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How To Use Cherry Split
The cherry split technique is used as
follows:
– State the essence of your problem in two
words
– Put these two words onto a diagram
– Split each word into two attributes associated
with that word add these to the diagram
– Continuing splitting attributes (adding them to
the diagram) until you have a good collection
– Examine each attribute for ideas
– Try reassembling the attributes
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Cherry Split Example
The publisher of a sports magazine had the
problem: “How do I extend the market for my
sports magazine?”
Young Athletes
Children
School
Sports
Male
Adults
Female
Individual
Subscription
Group
Magazine
Mass Market
Advertising
Special Markets
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Cherry Split Example (cont…)
The publishers connected magazine,
children, school, subscription and young
athletes together to generate the idea to
add a kids section to their magazine and sell
subscriptions through schools
Based on ideas from “Thinkertoys”, Michael Michalko
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Slice & Dice
Often by seeing the bigger
picture of a problem, we are
blinded to the details of the
problem
The slice & dice technique
attempts to generate new
ideas around a problem by
focusing on the details of the
problem
How many faces?
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How To Use Slice & Dice
The process of using slice & dice proceeds
as follows:
– State your challenge
– Analyse the challenge and list as many
attributes as possible
– Take each attribute, one at a time, and try to
think of ways to change or improve it
• How can this be accomplished?
• Why does it have to be this way?
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Generating Attributes
To help think up attributes related to a
problem try using the following attribute
categories:
– Descriptive – colour, shape, sound…
– Process – manufacturing, selling, time…
– Social – responsibilities, taboos…
– Price – retail cost, manufacturing cost…
– Ecological – positive/negative effects…
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Slice & Dice Example
AB Bacho tools of Sweden wee considering
the design of screwdrivers
Using Slice & Dice they came up with the
following list of attributes:
– Round
– Wedge-shaped end
– Steel shank
– Manually operated
– Wooden handle – Used for tightening/loosening screws
By considering the “manually operated”
attribute they invented the Bacho Ergo
screwdriver which is designed to be used by
both hands and made millions!
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Phoenix
Based on ideas from “Thinkertoys”, Michael Michalko
Using directed questions can be a great way
to stimulate new ideas about a problem
But thinking up the right questions can be
hard!
Phoenix is a checklist of
questions developed by the CIA
to encourage agents to look at
problems from different angles
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How To Use Phoenix
The phoenix technique is used as follows
– Write your challenge
– Pick questions from the Phoenix list to ask
about the challenge
– Record your answers
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The Phoenix Questions
Why is it necessary to solve the problem?
What benefits will you gain by solving the problem?
What is the unknown?
What is it you don’t yet understand?
What is the information you have?
What isn’t the problem?
Is the information sufficient? Or is it insufficient? Or is it redundant? Or is it
contradictory?
Should you draw a diagram of the problem?
What are the boundaries of the problem?
Can you separate the various parts of the problem? What are the relationships
of the parts of the problem?
What are the constants of the problem?
Have you seen this problem before?
Have you seen this problem in a slightly different form?
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The Phoenix Questions (cont…)
Do you know a related problem?
Can you think of a familiar problem having the same or similar unknown?
Can you restate your problem? More general? More specific? Can the rules be
changed?
What are the best , worst and most probable cases you can imagine?
Can you solve the whole problem? Part of the problem?
What would you like the resolution to be? Can you picture it?
How much of the unknown can you determine?
Can you derive something useful form the information that you have?
Have you used all of the information?
Have you taken into account all essential notions in the problem?
Can you separate the steps in the problem-solving process? Can you
determine the correctness of each step?
Can you see the result? How many different kinds of results can you see?
How many different ways have you tried to solve the problem?
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The Phoenix Questions (cont…)
What have others done?
Can you intuit the solution? Can you check the result?
What should be done? How should it be done?
Where should it be done?
When should it be done?
Who should do it?
What do you need to do at this time?
Who will be responsible for what?
Can you use this problem to solve another problem?
What is the unique set of qualities that makes this problem what it is and no
other?
What milestones can best mark your progress?
How will you know when you are successful?
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Phoenix Summary
The Phoenix questions are not perfect, but
are definitely useful
– Also useful for more general problem solving
The key is having a list of questions ready
and to hand
Consider adding your own questions to the
list
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Exercises
Try out one of the techniques (maybe false
faces followed by cherry split) on each of the
following problems – what new ideas can you
come up with?
Working for a large search engine company we
have collected huge amounts of data on
peoples’ search terms – what can we do with
this data?
Easily distributed digital music is now a fact of
life. As workers in a large music publishing
company how can we turn this to our
advantage?
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Force Field Analysis
Force field analysis is a technique for
looking at the forces for and against a
decision
– A formal method for weighing up pros and
cons
Used for many purposes (particularly
change management) force filed analysis is
useful for:
– Determining whether a selected course of
action is possible
– Determining the actions needed to follow a
course of action
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Kurt Lewin (1890 – 1947)
Born in 1890 in Mogilno, Poland
Recognized as the founder of
modern social psychology
Founded the Research Centre
for Group Dynamics at M.I.T.
His work focused on explaining
group dynamics and included
developing the notions of lifespace, action research and the force field
analysis technique
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Force Field Analysis Diagram
5
Driving Forces
4
3
2
Restraining Forces
1
2
3
4
5
1
Decision Statement
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Force Field Analysis
To perform a force field analysis perform the
following steps
– Describe your plan or proposal for change in
the middle of the diagram
– List all driving forces for change in one
column
– List all restraining forces against change in
the other column
– Assign a score from 1 (weak) to 5 (strong) to
each force
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What Are Forces?
Anything that affects a decision can be
considered a force
Typical forces often focus on:
– Costs
– Staff
– Systems/IT
– Environmental issues
Always be careful when giving force
strengths – don’t fudge it!
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Force Field Analysis Example
Example taken from www.mindtools.com
Imagine that we are the manager of Dublin
County Choppers Ltd and we are
considering installing a new machine for
spraying motorbike parts – previously a job
done by hand
What are the forces affecting this decision?
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Force Field Analysis Example (cont…)
5
Driving Forces
4
3
2
Restraining Forces
1
2
3
4
5
1
Loss of staff
overtime
Customers want
better paint jobs
Example taken from www.mindtools.com
Raise output
volumes
Decision Statement
Improve speed of
production
Staff frightened of new
technology
Environmental impact
Cost
Control maintenance
costs
TOTAL: 10
Disruption
TOTAL: 11
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What Do We Do With The Analysis?
Once we have carried out our analysis what
can we do?
Determine if the project is viable
– Is it worth going ahead with the plan?
Try to improve the probability of success:
– Increase the strength of the driving forces
FOR the project
– Decrease the strength of the restraining
forces AGAINST the project
Record tasks required to enact changes
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Changing The Forces
Force field diagrams can always be revised
– Adding new forces
– Adjusting force strength based on planned
actions
Watch Out: Adjusting one force can often
have knock on effects on other forces
– For example, if we decide to give our staff
some more training to reduce their fear of
new technology this will also increase the
cost of the project
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Returning To Our Example
Example taken from www.mindtools.com
We might simply decide that the plan is not
worth going ahead with!
However, we might also consider some
changes to make the initial plan more viable
– Training staff (increase cost, +1) eliminate
fear of technology (reduce fear, -2)
– Show staff that change is necessary for
business survival (new force FOR, +2)
– Raise wages to reflect new productivity (cost
+1, loss of overtime -2)
– Choose environmentally-friendly machines
(eliminate environmental impact, -1)
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Returning To Our Example (cont…)
5
Driving Forces
4
3
2
Restraining Forces
1
2
3
4
5
1
Customers want
better engines
Loss of staff
overtime
Example taken from www.mindtools.com
Raise output
volumes
Change is
necessary
Decision Statement
Improve speed of
production
Staff frightened of new
technology
•Train staff
•Show
machines
are necessary
•Raise wages
•Enviro-friendly
machines
Cost
Disruption
TOTAL: 12
Control
maintenance
costs
TOTAL: 8
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Force Field Analysis Example
Let’s try to do a force field analysis of one of
the suggestions classified as excellent after
our brainstorming session
“Downloads give concert discounts”
So let’s consider going ahead with the idea
that when people pay to download an album
they get a discount on upcoming concert
tickets for their city
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Force Field Analysis Summary
Force field analysis is a formal way in which
to record the pros and cons associated with
pursuing an idea
It can be used after brainstorming to
evaluate ideas considered worth pursuing
(or any other decision we have to make)
Force field analysis is quite subjective
It is important that we are honest when
listing pros and cons and their strengths as
otherwise the analysis becomes a sham
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Force Field Analysis Exercise
A mature student is thinking of enrolling in a
new evening course
Perform a force field analysis outlining the
forces for and against
Evaluate, and if necessary, modify your plan
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S.W.O.T. Analysis
Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities
Threats
Used for many tasks (often to review highlevel strategy), SWOT analysis can be used
to evaluate promising ideas emerging out of
a brainstorming session
“The SWOT analysis is an extremely useful tool for understanding
and decision-making for all sorts of situations in business
organizations or institutions”
Albert S Humphrey
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Origins Of S.W.O.T. Analysis
More information available at www.businessballs.com
SWOT analysis emerged from an effort in
the 1960s by the Stanford Research Institute
to understand why corporate planning failed
The research was funded by the Fortune
500 companies and led by Marion Dosher,
Dr. Otis Benepe, Albert Humphrey, Robert
Stewart and Birger Lie
The researchers performed an extremely
large study involving over 1,000 companies
and 5,000 executives
More information available at www.businessballs.com
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Origins Of S.W.O.T. Analysis (cont…)
Unanimous opinion at the time was that
corporate planning in the shape of long
range planning was not working, did not pay
off, and was an expensive investment in
futility
Original technique was Satisfactory
Opportunity Fault Threat analysis but was
changed early on to SWOT
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How Do We Do It?
In a SWOT analysis we list the positives and
negatives surrounding an idea and how it
relates to our enterprise using the categories
Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities
and Threats
Strengths and Weaknesses are considered
internal to our enterprise and things that we
have control over
Opportunities and Threats are considered
external to our enterprise and things that we
do not have control over
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The S.W.O.T. Template
Positive
Negative
Internal
Factors
Strengths
Weaknesses
External
Factors
Opportunities
Threats
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Strengths
What is it about the idea that makes it
attractive?
Examples:
– Competitive advantages?
– Unique selling points?
– Resources, assets, people?
– Experience, knowledge, data?
– Likely financial returns?
– Location and geography?
– Philosophy and values?
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Weaknesses
What are the disadvantages of the idea?
Examples:
– Gaps in capabilities?
– Financials?
– Timescales, deadlines and pressures?
– Effects on core activities, distraction?
– Morale, commitment, leadership?
– Processes and systems?
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Opportunities
In your current environment what are the
external factors which promote the idea?
Examples:
– Competitors’ vulnerabilities?
– Industry or lifestyle trends?
– Technology development and innovation?
– Global influences?
– Niche target markets?
– Partnerships?
– Seasonal, fashion influences?
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Threats
What external features of your current
environment could negatively affect the
idea?
Examples:
– Political effects?
– Legislative effects?
– Environmental effects?
– IT developments?
– Competitor intentions - various?
– New technologies, services, ideas?
– Economy - home, abroad?
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Intentions Of S.W.O.T. Analysis
We look at the categories with the following
intentions:
– Strengths: to build on, maintain and
leverage
– Weaknesses: to cover, remedy or exit
– Opportunities: to capture, prioritise and
optimise
– Threats: to defend against, counter
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Aims Of S.W.O.T. Analysis
SWOT analysis aims to:
– Reveal the competitive advantages of an idea
– Analyse the prospects an idea has for
success
– Prepare for any problems associated with
pursuing an idea
– Allow for the development of contingency
plans around an idea
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S.W.O.T. Analysis Example
As an example of a SWOT analysis consider
the idea of offering subscriptions to
customers which allows them to freely
stream any music from our artists as long as
it is still in the charts
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S.W.O.T. Analysis Example (cont…)
Strengths
Unique value proposition
We have a big stable of artists to offer
music from
We are likely to bring in large numbers
of subscriptions
We do not actually give the music
away – streaming only
Opportunities
Partner with hardware/software
manufacturers
Offer niche charts
Partner with chart providers
Possible advertising revenue
Weaknesses
May take away from our traditional
sales
Big shift in our business model
Difficulty in obtaining chart data
Threats
Legislation regarding who owns music
Possible that listeners will capture our
streams – we’re giving away our music
Competition may capitalise on the fact
that more of their music is in the charts
Relying on chart data from someone
else
Possible fixing of charts
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S.W.O.T. Analysis Of
Companies/Individuals
SWOT analysis is also often used to perform
high level audits of companies/individuals
– Defining the long term strategy for a company
– Make a personal “5 year plan”
Let’s look at a simple example SWOT
analysis of eBay
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Example – S.W.O.T. Analysis For
eBay
Strengths
– eBay is the leading global brand for online auctions
and has grown tremendously over the decade or so
since its conception
– Business models
• The company exploits the benefits of Customer Relationship
Management (CRM) - buyers and sellers register with the
company and data is collected by eBay on individuals
• Consumer-to-Consumer (C2C) business model - buyers and
sellers leave feedback for each other, and whereby awards
are given to the most genuine of eBayers
– The term 'eBay' has become a generic term for
online auctions
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Example – S.W.O.T. Analysis For
eBay (cont…)
Weaknesses
– The eBay model does leave itself open to a
number of fraudulent activities
– Systems breakdowns could disturb the
trading activities of eBay (and PayPal)
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Example – S.W.O.T. Analysis For
eBay (cont…)
Opportunities
– Acquisitions provide new business strategy
opportunities
• eBay has bought Skype Technologies
• eBay has been buying up firms (including PayPal)
in an effort to increase the number of services it
offers to consumers and keep its profits growing
– New and emerging markets provide
opportunities (e.g. China, India)
– There are also still opportunities in current
markets
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Example – S.W.O.T. Analysis For
eBay (cont…)
Threats
– Success attracts competition. International
competitors competing in their domestic
markets may have the cultural experience
that could give them a competitive advantage
over eBay (for example, Yahoo! dominates
the Japanese market)
– Attack by illegal practices is a threat (e.g.
fraud e-mails)
– Some costs (delivery charges, credit card
charges) cannot be controlled by eBay. This
could make the overall cost of an auctioned
item too expensive
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When Doing S.W.O.T. Analysis…
Be realistic about your strengths and
weaknesses
SWOT should always be specific
Always apply SWOT in relation to your
competition
Keep your SWOT short and simple, avoid
complexity and over analysis
Keep in mind that SWOT is subjective
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S.W.O.T. Summary
SWOT analysis is another formal way to
quantify the possible success/failure of
pursuing an idea
SWOT is again very subjective – be careful
SWOT is also often used for more high-level
planning
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Conclusions
In this lecture we covered the following:
– Techniques to help generate ideas during
brainstorming
• Thinkertoys
– Techniques to evaluate ideas arising out of
brainstorming
• Force filed analysis
• SWOT analysis
Remember that all of these techniques can
be used in contexts other than that
considered here
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Exercises
Try out the following exercises
•
Pick one of the excellent ideas from our
brainstorming session last week and
perform a Force Field Analysis on it
•
Pick one of the excellent ideas from last
week’s brainstorming exercise and
perform a SWOT analysis on it
•
Perform a SWOT analysis on yourself
(keep this one private if you prefer!)
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Force Field Analysis Template
5
Driving Forces
4
3
2
1
Restraining Forces
1
2
3
4
5
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S.W.O.T. Analysis Template
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats