GS 1 – Introduction to Global Studies
Professor: Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Topic 5 – Global Population and Migration
A – Global Demography
B – International Migration
C – Health and Epidemics
Hofstra University, Department of Global Studies & Geography
A – GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY
Demographic History
Population Trends
Demographic Transition
Population Distribution
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
World Population, 1000BC-2050AD (in billions)
10
9
8
Population “explosion”
A process of strong demographic growth.
Started after the Second World War.
About 80 million people added each year.
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1000
-750
-500
-250
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Population Added to the Global Population, 1950-2010 (in millions
per year)
100.0
2.5
90.0
80.0
2
1.5
Millions
60.0
50.0
40.0
1
Growth Rate (%)
70.0
30.0
20.0
0.5
10.0
Addition
2010
2007
2004
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
1977
1974
1971
1968
1965
1962
1959
1956
1953
0
1950
Growth Rate
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
World Population 1804-2048 (in billions)
10
9
20 years
8
15 years
7
13 years
4
1959
37 years
2
1987
1974
15 years
3
0
1800
1999
12 years
5
2028
2012
13 years
6
1
2048
1922
118 years
1804
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Scenarios of Global Population Growth, 2009-2050
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
Reference
Low
High
4.0
2.0
0.0
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
World’s 15 Largest Countries, 2005, 2050 (in millions)
Japan -18 128
Viet Nam
84 34
Philippines
83 44
Egypt
75 53
Mexico
Congo, DR of
106 34
56 96
Ethiopia
74
Brazil
97
183
50
Bangladesh
153
102
Nigeria
130
128
Indonesia
225
Pakistan
Growth (2005-2050)
68
161
United States
2005
188
300
109
China
1,330
India
-200
75
1,097
0
200
400
600
435
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Population Change between 2000 and 2050 (%)
Italy
Spain
Russia
Germany
Netherlands
Poland
Britain
Sweden
France
United States
Ireland
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Demographic Transition Theory
Explain the demographic transition theory and its
impacts on global population growth.
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Total Population
Phase
I
Phase
II
Phase
III
Phase
IV
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Stages in Demographic Transition
Stage I
Stage II
Stage III
Stage IV
High birth rates
High birth rates
Falling birth rates
Low birth rates
Family Planning.
Lower infant mortality rates.
Industrialization means less
need for labor.
Increased desire for material
possessions and less desire
for large families.
Emancipation of women.
Children as liabilities instead
of assets (no economic
contribution as labor).
Low death rates
Low death rates
No or little Family Planning.
Parents have many children
because few survive.
Many children are needed to
work the land.
Children are a sign of virility.
Religious beliefs and cultural
traditions encourage large
families.
High death rates
Falling death rates
Disease and plague (e.g.
bubonic, cholera,
kwashiorkor).
Famine, uncertain food
supplies and poor diet.
Poor hygiene, no clean
water or sewage disposal.
Improved medicine.
Improved sanitation and
waters supply.
Improvements in food
production in terms of
quality and quantity.
Improved transport to move
food.
Decrease in child mortality.
Modern medicine.
Optimal life expectancy.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Survivorship of the British Population, 17th and 20th Centuries
100
90
80
Survivorship
70
60
17th Century
50
1999 (M)
1999 (F)
40
30
20
10
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40 45
Age
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Crude Birth Rates, Western Europe, 1751-1991
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
Britain
Ireland
France
Sweden
Germany
Italy
10
5
0
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Crude Death Rates, Western Europe, 1751-1991
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
Britain
Ireland
France
Sweden
Germany
Italy
10
5
0
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Total Fertility Rate, Selected Units, 1950-2010
8
7
6
5
World
4
3
Europe
North America
China
Africa
India
2
1
0
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Fertility Transition in some Countries, 1962-2007
8
7
6
TFR
5
4
3
2
1
0
1962
1982
1990
2000
2007
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Share of Global Population per Continent, 1700-2000
100%
90%
80%
70%
Oceania
60%
50%
40%
30%
Asia
Middle East
CIS
Africa
Europe
Latin America
North America
20%
10%
0%
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Relationship Between Fertility and GDP per Capita, Selected
Countries, 2007
With is the relationship between TFR and GDP and to
what this relation may be attributed to?
9
8
Niger
7
Congo
6
Ethiopia
Nigeria
TFR
5
Kenya
4
Pakistan
India
3
Egypt
Bangladesh
Indonesia
2
United States
Mexico
France
Russia
Germany
Vietnam
1
China
0
200
Singapore
Thailand
2000
South Korea
Japan
Hong Kong
20000
GPD per Capita
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Aged 0-14
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
0.0
1950
Billions
World Population by Age Group, 1950-2050
Aged +65
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
World Population Density and Distribution, 2005
To what factors may be attributable the
distribution of the global population?
Typical concentrations along major river systems.
Areas of large concentrations: South Asia, East Asia,
Western Europe, Northeastern North America.
“Empty” areas are attributed to: harsh physical
landscapes and harsh temperature. © Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Essay: Global Demography
Based upon the material seen in class, elaborate about the
world’s major demographic challenges in the coming years.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
B – INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
Types of Migration
Migration Patterns
Brain Drain
Migration Policy
Refugees
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Types of Migration
■ Emigration and immigration
A Problems or
benefits?
Emigrant
• Change in residence.
• Relative to origin and destination.
■ Requires information
• People and conditions.
• Two different places.
• Two different times.
■ Duration
Immigrant
B
Problems or
benefits?
• Permanent.
• Seasonal / Temporary.
■ Choice / constraint
• Improve one’s life.
• Leave inconvenient / threatening
conditions.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Types of Migration
Gross migration
Immigration
■ Gross migration
• Total number of people coming in
and out of an area.
• Level of population turnover.
■ Net Migration
Emigration
• Difference between immigration (inmigration) and emigration (outmigration).
• Positive value:
• More people coming in.
• Population growth (44% of North
America and 88% of Europe).
• Negative value:
• More people coming out.
• Population decline.
Net migration
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Net Migration, 2005-10
Read this content
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Types of Migration
■ International Migration
• Emigration is an indicator of economic and/or social failures of a
society.
• Crossing of a national boundary.
• Easier to control and monitor.
• Laws to control / inhibit these movements.
• Between 2 million and 3 million people emigrate each year.
• Between 1965 and 2000, 175 million people migrated:
• 3% of the global population.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Immigration to the United States, 1820-2013 (Millions)
Southeast
Europe
1.4
Latin America
Asia
1.2
Germany
Scandinavia
1.0
0.8
0.6
British
Isles
0.4
0.2
0.0
Explain the different waves of immigration the US has been subject to.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
45
40
Millions
Region of Birth of the Foreign-Born Population: 1850 to 2010
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
Europe
1910
Asia
1920
Africa
1930
Latin America
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Northern America
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Top 10 Countries of Origin for US Legal Immigrants, 1995-2008
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Mexico
China
India
Philippines
Russia
Dominican Republic
Vietnam
Colombia
El Salvador
Guatemala
1995
2000
2008
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
US Population by Race and Ethnicity, 1990-2050
100%
3.6
11.7
80%
6.3
7
12.1
13
9
12.5
9
14
18
24
60%
Asian/Other
Black
40%
Hispanic
75.6
69.1
White
62
53
20%
0%
1990
2000
2025
2050
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Foreign Born as % of Metropolitan Population
London
Amsterdam
Melbourne
New York
Los Angeles
Vancouver
Hong Kong
Muscat
Toronto
Miami
Dubai
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Brain Drain
■ Definition
• Relates to educationally specific selective migrations.
• Globalization:
• Requires additional pools of skilled labor force.
• Easier to migrate.
• Some countries are losing the most educated segment of their
population.
• Can be both a benefit for the receiving country (brain gain) and a
problem to the country of origin.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Brain Drain
■ Receiving country
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Tap various labor pools.
Highly qualified labor contributing to the economy right away.
Promotes economic growth in science and technology.
Not having to pay education and health costs.
It costs about $300,000 to educate an average American.
50% of skilled migrants go to the US. Only 5% go to Europe.
30% of Mexicans with a PhD are in the US.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Brain Drain
■ Country of origin
• Education and health costs not paid back.
• Losing potential leaders and talent:
• Developing countries lose 15% of their graduates.
• 15 to 40% of a graduating class in Canada will move to the US.
• 50% of Caribbean graduates leave.
• Long term impact on economic growth.
• Possibility of remittances.
• Many brain drain migrants have skills which they can’t use at
home:
• The resources and technology may not be available.
• The specific labor market is not big enough.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Percentage of College Educated Citizens Living Abroad
Sri Lanka
El Salvador
Somalia
Angola
Uganda
Laos
Kenya
Mozambique
Ghana
Haiti
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Brain Drain
■ A reverse migration trend
• High costs in developed countries.
• New opportunities in developing countries.
• Part of the offshoring process of many manufacturing and service
activities.
• Qualified personnel coming back with skills and connections.
• Particularly for South Korea, Taiwan, China and India.
• Increasing number of Americans working overseas.
Explain the nature, causes and possible consequences of brain drain.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Migration Policies and Global Migration Patterns
Period
Policies
Pattern
Before 1914
Open policies (“showing up”).
Immigration as a source of labor and
development.
From developed (Europe) to developing
countries (Americas, Africa, Australia).
Immigration from Europe between 1880
and 1910 was exceeded 25 million.
1920s and
1930s
“Closed door” linked with the
economic depression. Deportation of
immigrants.
Limited migration.
After 1945
More open policies. Reconstruction
in Europe (12% of labor force) and
economic growth in America.
Beginning to shift from developing to
developed countries (12%).
After 1973
Relatively open policies, but with
more stringent requirements. Growth
of refugees and illegal immigration.
From developing to developed countries
(88%). 3 million illegal immigrants
entering the US per year. Estimates of
20-38 million illegals in the US alone.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Migration Policy
■ Growing level of temporary migration schemes
• Work permits.
• More in tune with seasonal and economic cycles.
■ Skilled migrants are increasingly sought after
• Lower costs.
• Cannot be easily recruited by another corporation.
■ Growing anti-immigration stance in many countries
•
•
•
•
Health: carry endemic diseases.
Economic: depress wages and increase social burden.
Nationalism: undermine the cohesion of nation-states.
Environment: cause additional population burdens.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Remittances Received, 1970 – 2014 (Millions of US dollars)
600,000
500,000
400,000
Mexico
300,000
Phillipines
China
India
200,000
World
100,000
0
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Refugees
■ The United Nations definition
• The 1951 Convention Regarding the Status of Refugees and the
1967 Protocol on the Status of Refugees:
• “..... any person who, owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for
any reasons of race, religion, nationality, member of a particular social
group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality, and is
unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection
of that country.…” .
• The problem lies in the definition of who is a refugee.
• There are no international agreements to protect people who
cross boundaries for their economic survival.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Refugees
■ Conditions to qualify for refugee status
• Political persecution must be demonstrated.
• An international boundary must be crossed:
• Domestically displaced persons do not qualify.
• Protection by one’s government is not seen an alternative:
• The government may be the persecutor.
• Could be incapable of protecting its citizens from persecution.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Refugees
■ Origins
• The first recorded refugees were the Protestant Huguenots who
left France to avoid religious persecution.
• About 200,000 at the end of the 17th century.
• Went to England, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and the English
colonies in North America.
■ Pre-WW II and during WW II
• Primarily political elites:
• Fleeing repression from the new government, which overthrew them.
• Usually small in number and often had substantial resources available to
them.
• War-driven refugees:
• About 12% of the European population displaced.
• Usually could be expected to repatriate after the war ended.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Refugees
■ Post WW II
• Change in the patterns of refugee flows:
• The majority of refugees are now coming from the developing world.
• De-colonization in Asia, Africa, and the Caribbean:
• Political unrest in many newly independent states.
• Multi-ethnic nature of those states.
• The result of the drawing of colonial boundary lines by Europeans.
• Cold War and political instability:
• Latin America (Cuba, San Salvador, Nicaragua, etc.).
• Asia (Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, etc.).
• Middle East (Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, etc.)
• New kind of refugee flow:
• Large and of long (or permanent) duration.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Refugees and Internally Displaced Populations
40
60
35
50
30
20
30
15
Refugees
Internally displaced
Internal conflicts
20
10
10
5
0
0
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
Millions
25
Number of conflicts
40
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Refugees
■ Current issues
• Enduring internal conflicts creating a constant stream of refugees:
• E.g. Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan in recent years.
• Blurred distinction between political and economic refugees.
• Refugees are a controversial issue:
•
•
•
•
•
Especially in the developed world.
Only a small share of the asylum seekers are granted the refugee status.
Less than 20% for the European Union.
Increasingly, refugees are no longer accepted.
Economic refugees resorting to asylum as the only way to get a legal
status.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Essay: Global Migration
Global migration is a complex issue linked with differences in levels of
economic development. What could be the trends shaping global
migration in the coming decades?
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
C – HEALTH AND EPIDEMICS
The Spread of Diseases
Major Epidemics
The Threat of Pandemics
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
The Spread of Diseases
Endemic
Epidemic
Pandemic
Many diseases (Flu) exists in
a state of equilibrium within a
population.
Do not need to spread from an
outside source.
Many develop an immunity.
Saps energy, lowers
resistance, shortens lives.
Sudden outbreak at local,
regional scale.
More cases than would
normally be expected.
Generally short lived (until all
the potential population is
infected).
Worldwide spread through
trade routes.
Explain the differences between, endemic, epidemic and pandemic
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Fatality Rates per Type of Disease
AIDS (untreated)
Ebola
Bird Flu (H5N1)
Tubercolosis
Smallpox
Bird Flu (H7N5)
AIDS (treated)
MRSA
SARS
Bubonic Plague
Swine Flu (H1N1)
Malaria
Seasonal Flu
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Major Epidemics
■ Black Death
•
•
•
•
•
Europe, 14th century (the Plague)
Bacteria (Yersinia pestis) originating in Asia.
Moved through the trade routes.
Entered Europe in 1347.
Transmission by rats, fleas and coughing / sneezing:
• Debate between bubonic (lymphatic system) and pneumonic (respiratory
system) plagues.
• 90% death rate of those infected:
• Death between 4 to 7 days.
• 20 million deaths; 25-33% of the European population.
• May have killed 70% of the population of England.
• 75 million deaths in Eurasia out of a population of 300 million.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Estimated Population of Europe, 1000-1500
100
90
80
70
Millions
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
1450
1500
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Spread of the Bubonic Plague in Europe, 1347-1351
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Major Epidemics
■ Smallpox
• Virus commonly resulting in blisters; highly contagious.
• Spread through respiratory system and physical contact.
• Endemic in Eurasia:
• 400,000 people per year killed in Europe in the 18th century.
• New World, 16th Century:
• Virus introduced by Spanish conquistadors and European colonists.
• Between 10 and 20 million killed.
• Decimation of the Inca, Aztec and Native American civilizations.
• Was officially eradicated in 1979 (Only infectious disease
completely eradicated).
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Major Epidemics
■ Influenza
•
•
•
•
Global, 1918-1919 (Spanish Flu).
A strain of H1N1; (H: Hemagglutinin, N: Neuraminidase).
Virus brought by troops; spread through transport routes.
Lethality:
•
•
•
•
•
Transmission through respiratory channels.
Lethality by a cytokine storm.
2-20% of those infected died (normal rate 0.1%).
Between 25 and 40 million killed (1.2-2.2 % of the global population).
WWI (1914-1918) killed 9 million people.
• Bird Flu (H5N1):
• Limited human-to-human transmission potential.
• Swine Flu (H1N1; April 2009):
• New strain contains genes coming from 5 different viruses.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Influenza and Pneumonia Mortality per 100,000 Persons per Age
Group, United States, 1911–1918
3000
2500
2000
1911-1917
1500
1918
1000
500
0
<1
1-4
5-14
15-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
74-84
>=85
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Major Epidemics
■ HIV/AIDS
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Global (Pandemic), 1980 to present.
Originated in Africa.
Mutation of a primate virus to infect humans.
Transmission by body fluids.
40 million deaths (2007).
86 million infected (1.0-1.3% of the global population).
2,700,000 new cases per year (2007).
Major prevalence in Sub-Saharan Africa:
• More than 60% of HIV positive global population.
• More than 20% of the population infected in several African countries.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Global Population with HIV and AIDS Related Deaths, 1990-2012
40,000,000
2,500,000
35,000,000
2,000,000
30,000,000
25,000,000
1,500,000
20,000,000
1,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
500,000
5,000,000
0
0
1990
1995
2000
Population with HIV
2005
2010
2012
AIDS-Related Deaths
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
AIDS Diagnoses and Deaths in the United States, 1981-2011
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Cases diagnosed during the year
Deaths occurring during the year
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
The Threat of Pandemics
■ The potential of a new global pandemic?
• Risk factors:
• Influenza impacts 5 to 15% of the global population each year (kills
250,000 to 500,000).
• New strains of influenza could affect 20% of the global population.
• Some scenarios account for 1 billion deaths in less than 6 months.
• Dominantly urbanized population (proximity).
• Fast global transport systems (diffusion).
• SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Conovirus; 2003):
• Infected more than 8,400 (874 died).
• Declared eradicated in 2005.
• Ebola (2014-)
• Endemic in Western Africa.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Some Factors behind the Global Spread of Diseases
Factor
Global travel
People as the vector (e.g. Flu, West Nile Virus, SARS). The
most common vector.
Global trade
Cargo as the vector (e.g. Mad Cow Disease).
Wars and conflicts
Destruction / damaging of healthcare systems and public
utilities (aqueduct / sewage). Displacement of populations
(refugees).
Migration
Migrants dominantly responsible to bring endemic diseases in
developed countries (e.g. tuberculosis).
Poverty
Overcrowding, malnutrition, lack of healthcare and unsanitary
conditions.
Medical practices
Pathogenic natural selection. More virulent and resistant
diseases.
Read this content (sections 1 & 2)
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Essay: Global Pandemics
Using examples of past pandemics, explain the main factors that favor
the global spread of diseases.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue