14-19 Policy Picture
Autumn 2015
The big policy picture 6 months on
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Slim majority but government keen to display energy/exploit Opp
discomfort
– 14 Cabinet Committees, 11 Implementation Taskforces
– 26 Bills
– Budget, Productivity and Skills Plans, HE Green Paper and EBacc consultation
out, SR, Autumn Stat, Growth Plan to come
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Mantra is ‘One Nation’ but pitch is to middle Britain
– Aim is to hog centre/common ground for foreseeable future
– Use of local determinism, autonomy and digitalisation to transform provision of
core services and create smaller but ‘smarter’ state
– Education and skills an important part of the pitch as avenues of opportunity and
drivers of economy
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The economic plan providing the head
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2 phases with moveable landmark of 2018/19
Set around the Party’s 6-stage life plan
All policy geared to ensure this succeeds, Osborne the planner-in-chief
Performance of education and skills system a necessary component in the plan
and won’t be left alone until it (the plan both economic and life) succeeds
Social justice providing the heart
– Kinder, compassionate, caring but also aspiration, opportunity, mobility
– Education with pivotal role, positive impact on many social mobility indicators
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BUT, 2nd terms often derailed by the unexpected
Schools. Current position
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Largely a continuity agenda, PM making big announcements, Ed Secretary
adding own tone, stability needed while curriculum reforms bed in
Big push on performance, solid in this year’s exams but government
deploying 3 mechanisms to raise standards
– Sharper accountability through testing, progress reporting, coasting
– Further transformation of school system through academies, free schools
– Focus on core teaching through Eng/maths and EBacc requirements
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Key date likely to be 2017 when qual reforms in place, primary measures
applied, Progress 8 fully in place, coasting data clearer
Current qual reform schedule applies though debates continuing about the
nature of the curriculum, new GCSE grading scale, case for AS levels and
public perceptions generally. Focus shifting towards assessment
Concerns about pressures on pupils rising up the agenda, issues ranging
from health and learner welfare to safeguarding and social mobility
Concerns also about pressures on teaching profession with 3 new
workload groups, 2 taskforces, a National Teaching Service, recruitment
and retention issues, NAO inquiry into ITT
Attainment gap issues remain and raised in PM’s Conference speech.
Likely to be raised in OECD, Ofsted, Social Mobility reports this autumn
Labour likely to pitch Opposition tents around local accountability, teacher
recruitment, early years provision and 16-19 funding
Current challenges
1.Implementing an extensive qualification reform programme
2.Understanding new forms of accountability
3.Supporting the workforce
4.Dealing with continuous structural reforms
5.Managing financial pressures
6.Seeing over the parapet
1. Qualification reform
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Current policy
– Close gaps, match best international standards
• Current position
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KS2: 80% reach L4 in reading, writing, maths (Summer 2015)
KS4: 56.1% achieve GCSE A*-C grade inc Eng/ma (Summer 2015)
KS5: 98.1% overall pass rate at A’ level (Summer 2015)
Attainment gap: closed by 4.7% in primary, 1.6% in secondary
Destination data: 93%@KS4, 73% @KS5 in continuous learning or employment
Manifesto pledges
– Introduce ‘tough’ new standards for literacy and numeracy in primary
– Ensure all secondary pupils required to take GCSEs in ‘core’ subjects and Ofsted
unable to award highest grade to schools that refuse to teach them
– Increase the number of teachers able to teach Mandarin
– Deliver 3m apprenticeships over the next five years
– Guarantee every ‘child’ a place on the National Citizen Service
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Developments since May
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Ofqual Perceptions survey suggests some confusion over qual changes (June)
McDonalds, CBI, Pearson publish series of reports on need for skills-base curr (July)
2015 exam results published, poll finds opposition to EBacc requirement (August)
Ofsted and OECD publish critical reports on KS3 and computing (Sept)
DfE publish interim exam results, Ofqual appear before Select Committee (Oct)
DfE launch consultation on implementation of EBacc (Nov)
1. Qualification reform
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Current mechanisms
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Adoption of EBacc core curriculum
Phased introduction of more demanding GCSEs and A’ levels
Application of more formal testing and assessment
Pursuit of English and maths up to age 18
Introduction of post-16 Core maths qualifications
Further reform of Functional skills
Implementation of traineeships and apprenticeships
New ‘expert’ panel to help shape specialist high-tech 16-19 route
Current issues
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Impact of EBacc adoption on curriculum balance and skills provision
Continued appetite for wider 14-19 reform
Inspectorate concerns about focus ‘wasted years’ at KS3
Unease about some aspects of the reforms
Concerns about some aspects of the exam system (marking, appeals)
The role and remit of the NRT
The suitability or otherwise of apprenticeships in schools
The case for a return to universal work experience
Supply or lack of specialist teachers
Impact of performance pressures on teachers and pupils
2. Accountabilities
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Current policy
– Use of data to help develop sharper and more targeted monitoring and
accountability arrangements
• Current position
– ‘Primary schools improving (84% judged good or outstanding) but secondaries
stalling (77% judged good or outstanding)’ Ofsted Annual Report Dec 2014
– National Attainment 8 score from Progress 8 pioneers
– 235 schools deemed failing under current coasting criteria
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Manifesto pledges
– Pupils who fail to reach required level at the end of KS2 to resit at start of sec
– Any school judged by Ofsted to be requiring improvement to be taken over by
‘best’ head teachers
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Developments since May
– Government announces new coasting procedure as part of Education Bill, Ofsted
announces new CIF (June)
– DfE publishes Stat of Intent for performance tables for 2015 and beyond (July)
– DfE updates guidance for Progress 8 2016 and 2017 (August)
– DfE announces review of smartphones in class as part of Behaviour review
(Sept)
– DfE launches consultation on latest coasting and intervention criteria (Oct)
– Range of performance measures to ‘support’ EBacc adoption (Nov)
2. Accountabilities
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Current mechanisms
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Review of assessment arrangements and reporting for 7 year olds
Introduction of KS2 resits
Implementation of Progress 8 at KS4
Implementation of new performance measures at KS5
Introduction of new Ofsted inspection arrangements
Introduction of new coasting benchmark
New guidance on intervening in schools causing concern
Continued development of performance tables
Use of institutional performance management
Current issues
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Technicalities of running KS2 resits
Impact of Progress 8 on provision and performance
Impact of new Ofsted arrangements
Managing the demands of data
Development of robust destination measures
Coping with the impact of social media
3. Teachers
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Current policy
– Profess love and support, use of workload strategy to release pressures
• Current position
– 450,000 + teachers to 7.7m pupils
– 35,000 trainee teachers needed each year
– Significant shortages in recruitment of some teacher training courses notably
MFL, D/T, RE, Physics, Business Studies, Art
– Potentially up to 2,000 new head teachers needed annually
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Manifesto pledges
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An additional 17,500 maths and physics teachers to be trained over next 5 years
All teachers to be trained in how to deal with ‘low level disruption’
Support for the creation of an independent College of Teaching
Commitment to use of bursaries for most in-demand subjects
Commitment to reduce time spend on paperwork
Developments since May
– Teach First warn of deepening recruitment crisis, DfE announces new ‘Behaviour
Review’ group (June)
– Prof Dec Expert Group call for evidence to help develop new CPD standard (Sept)
– DfE publish latest scenario modelling highlighting need for increase in supply in
many subject areas, also announce 2016/17 bursaries for new teachers in core
subjects; NUT survey, Pearson/LKMco reports published (Oct)
– Secretary of State announces new ‘commando’ force (Nov)
3. Teachers
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Current mechanisms
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Development of clearer professional standards
Implementation of new pay and performance regime
Use of Workload Challenge groups to siphon off heat
Commissioning of series of teacher-based ‘review’ groups
Development of College of Teaching
Announcement of further bursaries
Launch of new advertising recruitment campaign
Education Committee inquiry into recruitment
NAO review of ITT
2016 launch of new National Teaching Service
Current issues
– Deepening concerns about future recruitment and retention levels and shortages
of teachers in key subject areas
– Government pushing for more mobile and flexible profession
– Continuing unease about teacher training and skill needs
– Impact of continuing squeeze on pay and pensions
– Reported rise in teacher disenchantment
4. Structural reforms
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Current policy
– Shift towards more flexible and autonomous school system
• Current position
– 4760 Academies, 305 Free Schools, 40 Studio Schools, 39 UTCs, 7 Career
Colleges
– Local management through RSC system
– Range of models for provision of other services
• Manifesto pledges
– Open at least 500 new Free Schools
– Continue to expand Academy, Studio School and UTC programme
– Use JCP advisers to supplement careers advice
• Developments since May
– DfE announces sponsored Academy arrangements will come under RSCs, PM
speech on turning round ‘1,000 failing schools’ (June)
– Prevent duty comes into force, DfE report indicates 20% rise in secondary pupil
numbers, Sutton Trust report on Academy Chains (July)
– PM’s ‘100 day’ speech calls for every school to be an Academy, Lord Baker calls
for 25 Career Colleges by 2020, mental health champion announced (August)
– PM pledges 2 waves of Free Schools every year to 2020, Careers Co launches
Enterprise Advisers network (Sept)
– SoS calls for schools open for childcare, confirms new grammar school site (Oct)
– Education Committee Inquiries into RSC system (Oct, Nov)
4. Structural reforms
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Current mechanisms
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Government commitment to intensify programme of school diversification
Development of the RSC system
Attempts to provide a more ‘fluid’ 14-19 provider system
Big drive to support STEM programmes
Roll-out of Enterprise Adviser (careers) scheme
Potential changes to entry rules for summer born babies
Area-based reviews of post-16 provision
Current issues
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Continuing tensions about nature, costs, local impact of Academies/Free Schools
Continuing concerns about school sizes and availability of resources
Potential review of remit of RSCs and how best to manage school improvement
How best to support continuing ‘cold’ spots such as coastal towns
Children’s safety, safeguarding and mental health concerns
Concerns about provision of other services eg careers, work experience
Choice v competition and role of local partnerships
5. Funding and finance
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Current policy
– Protect per pupil funding 5-16 but within efficiency framework
• Current position
– DfE budget currently at £57.6bn though budget cut earlier this year
– MFG continuing at 1.5% (subject to SR)
– Fair funding uplift carrying forward for another year
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Manifesto pledges
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Protect per-pupil funding for 5-16 yr olds
Protect for pupil premium but at current rate
Provide free school meals for all infants
Invest at least £7bn over next 5 years in ‘good’ school places
Remove NICs for young apprentices under 25
Developments since May
– Chancellor announces new debt reduction measures inc £450m for DfE (June)
– DfE publishes 2016/17 LA per-pupil funding rates, Chancellor launches 2015
Spending Review (July)
– SFCA Funding Impact Survey (August)
– Closing date for submissions on SR plans to Treasury (Sept)
– IFS briefing on potential impact of SR on school funding, F40 petition on school
funding formula (Oct)
5. Funding and finance
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Current mechanisms
– SR 2015 completing, 2 scenarios modelled by Depts
– 2 phases: 2016-2018/19 = reduce gov spending by 1% each year, 2018-2019 =
move into surplus, no longer cutting, aim to grow in line with inflation
– Net effect (1:) £30bn of ‘fiscal consolidation’ (inc: £13bn from dept savings) for
next 2/3 years, continued austerity for most of next 5 years
– Net effect (2:) Total gov spending by 2020 forecast to be ‘slightly higher than in
2000’
– Net effect (3:) Range of bleak forecasts for school/college budgets depending on
what’s protected
– Treasury looking for increased efficiency and productivity from the school system
– Continuing commitment to creation of fairer funding model
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Current issues
– “The overall funding settlement for schools will feel quite different over the next
5 years compared to the previous 5” IfS
– Impact on non-protected areas
– Pupil premium subject to series of reports
– Concerns about ability to offer full range of choices especially at 16-19
– Rise in pension and NI contributions adding to the pressures
– LAs continuing to face tight settlements
– Impact of the rise in pupil numbers and different regional pictures
Schools. What to look out for
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Education Bill moving to final stages, DfE consultation on coasting criteria
and intervention powers closes 18 December, due to take effect from
summer 2016
Qual reform. Phased implementation programme under way, development
work, consultations continuing, Sainsbury panel report due spring 2016
Assessment. Growing concerns about assessment demands and
capabilities including impact of new curriculum on marking and appeals.
Primary sector grappling with baseline testing and Assessment without
Levels, Rochford Review due December, Ofqual report on appeals shortly
Inspections. New regime now operating, some significant specialist reports
now out on KS3 and Apprenticeships, 16-19 PoS to come, Annual Report
due December
Performance. Prov data for 2015 published, final performance tables due
Jan 2016, OECD report Nov, UCAS report Dec 2015, PISA results Dec 16
School system. Latest wave of Free Schools proposals announced, PM
pushing Academy model, reforms putting pressures on local accountability
and role of RSCs, careers still a concern
Teachers. Workload groups due to report spring 2016, STRB working to
1% pay rise, series of reports (NUT, Key, Pearson) reveal prof unease
Technology in learning. Still some way off, use of smartphones in class
under review, BETT coming but OECD report dividing opinion
FE. Current position
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Unprotected, strapped for cash, still suffering from ‘middle child’ syndrome
but key supplier of some important curriculum components from basic
skills, to apprenticeships, to high-tech route
Improving picture of performance but Eng/maths, apprenticeships, 16-19
PoS, local responsiveness regularly cited as weaknesses in Ofsted reports
Sympathetic Minister though focused on apprenticeship target
FE remit laid out in Treasury Productivity Plan
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Apprenticeships as backbone of employer driven skills system (levy, status, 3m)
Use of Nat Colleges and IoTs to support prestigious L4/5 route
Devolution of planning and commissioning provision to local partnerships
Streamlining of qualification system, reduction in volume and shifting funding
from government grants to loans and employer investment
– Improved destination and performance/outcome data to increase choice and
responsiveness
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Currently facing major government prompted but locally led structural
review. Considerable sector restructuring likely to follow: fewer but bigger
colleges, rash of mergers, increase in collaborative (across school-college)
models, demise of GFE/SFC and rise of the specialist brand
AoC Treasury submission pretty much defining where current pinch points
are: 16-19; school sixth form competition; staff recruitment for
Eng/maths; constant cuts and lack of financial planning; gov interference
FE. What to look out for
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3 key pieces of legislation moving towards completion
Local structures. 7 area-based reviews now announced, 2nd wave due to
follow spring 2016, local picture varying across the country but sense of
streamlining very strong; further details on IoT model due
Funding. Awaiting SR 2015 with growing sense of anxiety despite rear
guard action by AoC, Wolf and Policy Exchange; loans, levy and localism
all likely to feature
Qualifications. QCF out, RQF now in, SFA moratorium on approval of new
quals from October, continuing reform of VQs, green light given to
development of FS, government likely to keep pressure up on reducing
volume, keen for employer endorsement of quals where possible
Accountability. 16-19 measures due from 2016, 19+ measures under
consultation, new inspection regime under way, Annual Report due Dec
Apprenticeships. Legal status now enshrined in legislation, levy model due
to be revealed in SR, employer-led standard development through
Trailblazer system, continuing concerns about target and take-up @ 16-19
Localism. Sheffield City Agreement latest in 30+ local area growth deals,
skills planning and commissioning high up list of functions bid for
Annual Colleges Conference and Skills Show set for November along with
SR and Autumn Statement, expect significant number of announcements
HE. Current position
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Policy agenda has been Treasury led and focused on opening up the
market (to providers and students) though questions about fees, visas,
participation and skill provision remain
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About to move on from Willetts/White Paper era through new Green Paper
and possible legislation; new strategy being built around:
– Excellence in teaching, to be codified in new framework (outcome criteria and
metrics) and with funding carrots, likely to be major source of contention
– Continued push on widening participation, use of data and access agreements to
expose gaps, potential new strategy coming to reassure doubters and highlight
government commitment
– Opening up the market to new and alternative providers with government keen
to shake up system through competition, choice and VFM. Consultation coming
with key weapon being new ‘performance pool of places’
– Clear and faster route to degree awarding powers, as above, part of the shake
up but will have quality caveats and will be part of consultation
– Re-thinking (and re-balancing) the research ‘architecture,’ looking for simpler
and less time consuming model which doesn’t leave teaching as a side-line
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Postgrads, part-time study, graduate returns, costs and over-supply of the
labour market, alternative providers, global positioning, all still issues
HE. What to look out for
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UKHE still performing heroically in latest series of global rankings but
finding balancing act between investment and output challenging
Sector granted key role in Treasury plans for growth and productivity but
big debate about where the high-level professional and tech route best
sits; danger of pitting HE against FE in dash for cash
Green Paper. Setting out basis of new quality defined era but with
emphasis on widening participation, opening up provider field and creating
new pool of places for best alternative providers
Fees. Consultation on freezing the repayment threshold concluded,
consultation on allowing fee increases in line with inflation due to follow;
some concerns about impact of shift to maintenance loans next year and
about support (or lack) for p/t learners and postgrads
QA. HEFCE completing review of current arrangements, BIS Committee
also holding Inquiry. Combined impact of Green Paper and SR likely to
have some impact on future arrangements
Visas. Still causing sharp dividing lines, Home Office Committee holding
Inquiry into Tier 2 skilled workers system, MAC due to report in December
Student numbers. Up 3% for 2015/16 as numbers cap lifted, final figures
in UCAS End of Year report due December
Future demand. Continuing debate about costs, values, graduate premium
sharpened by recruitment approach of DeLoitte, PWC and others