The undiagnosed HIV epidemic in France
and its implications for HIV screening strategies
SUPPLEMENTAL MATERIAL
Virginie SUPERVIE1,2*, Jacques D.A. NDAWINZ1,2#, Sara LODI3± and Dominique
COSTAGLIOLA1,2
1
Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, UMR_S 1136 Pierre Louis Institute of
Epidemiology and Public Health, F-75013, Paris, France
2
INSERM, UMR_S 1136 Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health, F-75013,
Paris, France
3
Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
#
Current address: Solthis, International NGO, F-75013, Paris, France
±
Current address: Harvard Schoool of Public Health, Boston, USA
*Corresponding author: virginie.supervie@inserm.fr
Figure Legend
Figure S1: Incidence of HIV infection by HIV exposure group in France. (A) Men who have
sex with men; (B) Injecting drug users; (C) Non French-national heterosexual women; (D)
Non French-national heterosexual men; (E) French-national heterosexual women; (F)
French-national heterosexual men. Values of incidence for the 2004-2007 period (dark
colors) were estimated in a previous study [1] while values for the 2000-2003 and 2008-2010
periods (light colors) were extrapolated based on the values obtained for the 2004-2007
period; under the baseline scenario, we assumed that HIV incidence between 2000 and 2003
(resp. 2008 and 2010) was equal to its level in 2004 (resp. 2007). We then hypothesized that
over the 2000-2010 period, 83,800 (95% confidence interval: 76,000-91,300) individuals
were infected with HIV in France.
Figure S2: Distribution of time from infection to HIV diagnosis for individuals infected in 2007
in France, by HIV exposure group. (A) Men who have sex with men; (B) Injecting drug users;
(C) Non French-national heterosexual women; (D) Non French-national heterosexual men;
(E) French-national heterosexual women; (F) French-national heterosexual men. The
probability of being diagnosed with HIV (left vertical axis) over time is represented by vertical
bars and the cumulative probability of not being diagnosed with HIV over time (right vertical
axis) is represented by the line. Yellow highlighted figures correspond to the probabilities of
not being diagnosed with HIV eleven years after the infection. Distributions of time from
infection to HIV diagnosis for individuals infected in 2004, 2005 and 2006 are not
represented on the figure but did not vary significantly [1].
Figure S3: CD4 count distribution after seroconversion among treatment naïve patients by
HIV exposure group. (A) Men who have sex with men; (B) Injecting drug users; (C)
Heterosexual women; (D) Heterosexual men. Distributions at 1, 2, and 5 years after
seroconversion were estimated in a previous study [2] while distributions for all other time
points after seroconversion were estimated for the present study. Vertical lines within bars
represent 95% confidence intervals.
Figure S1
Figure S2
Figure S3
References
1.
Ndawinz JD, Costagliola D, Supervie V. New method for estimating HIV
incidence and time from infection to diagnosis using HIV surveillance data:
results for France. AIDS 2011,25:1905-1913.
2.
Lodi S, Phillips A, Touloumi G, Geskus R, Meyer L, Thiebaut R, et al. Time
from human immunodeficiency virus seroconversion to reaching CD4+ cell
count thresholds <200, <350, and <500 Cells/mm(3): assessment of need
following changes in treatment guidelines. Clin Infect Dis 2011,53:817-825.