2012 Elections: What Will be the
Impact to Higher Education?
Daniel J. Palazzolo
Professor of Political Science
The 2012 Elections
• State of the Presidential and Congressional Races
• Forecasting the Presidential Election
• Higher Education in the Presidential Campaign
• Higher Education Policy: Budget Politics and
Reauthorization
RealClearPolitics Tracking Poll
(Oct 7-14, 2012)
50
47.3
47.3
Romney
Obama
45
40
35
30
25
20
Electoral College: 10/14
(Source: realclearpolitics.com)
Toss Up
146
Romney
192
Obama
201
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
240
270
Toss Ups (146)
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)
2012 Congressional Elections
Current House: GOP 242 / Democrats 193
2012 Elections: Projections
Democrats
Toss Ups
Republican
183
26 (8D/16R)
226
Current Senate: Democrats 53 / Republican 47
2012 Elections: Projections
Democrats
Toss Ups*
Republicans
46
11 (7D/4R)
43
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------*AZ : (Open-R), CT (Open -D) IN: (Open-R), MA (Brown-R), MO:
(McCaskill-D); MT (Tester-D), NV (R-Heller), ND (Open- D), Ohio
(Brown-D) VA (Open-D), WI (Open-D)
Source: Real Clear Politics
Forecasting the 2012 Presidential
Election
• Incumbency
• Partisan Polarization
• State of the Economy
•Presidential Approval
Unemployment Rate: March 2008-Sept 2012
(Bureau of Labor Statistics)
12
10
10
8.7
8
9.8
9.5
8.9
9.5
8.2
9.1
7.8
8.2
5.6
6
4
9.4
6.5
5.1
2
0
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Sep-11
Jun-11
Mar-11
Dec-10
Sep-10
Jun-10
Mar-10
Dec-09
Sep-09
Jun-09
Mar-09
Dec-08
Sep-08
Jun-08
Mar-08
Approval of Incumbents Running for Re-election
(Gallup polls)
80
75
70
62
58
60
54
53
48
50
37
40
34
30
20
10
0
Obama
12
Bush 04
Clinton
96
Bush 92
Reagan
84
Carter
80
Nixon
68
Ike 56
Campaign Strategy and Effects
*Obama Campaign Strategy: David Axelrod Meets
Karl Rove
*Romney Campaign Strategy: Referendum AND
Choice
(1) VP Selection and Party Conventions
(2) Economics in the Battleground
(3) Candidate Quality + Obama
(4) Romney’s Gaffe
(5) Debate Effect
*Vice Presidential Selection
Americans Immediate Reaction to VP Pick
(Gallup/USA Today)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
64
3942
19
46
37
17
53
47
33
20
28
28
19
8
Excellent/ Pretty Good
Fair/Poor
55
52
44
34
11
No Opinion
4
Convention Bounce
Party Enthusiasm After Convention
Voter Enthusiasm by Party ID
(Gallup June v. Sept. 2012)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
68
55
43
62
52
49
38
29
Registered
Voters
Democrats
Independents
June 25-26
Sept 16-17
Republicans
Unemployment Rates in Key Battleground States
(August/September 2012: BLS)
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
12.1
7.8
5.7
5.5
5.9
7.2
8.2
8.8
Romney and the 47%
Voters Familiar with Romney Comments
FLA 89%
CO 90%
Registered voters Reaction
Unfavorable 54% Favorable 33%
*WP/ABC News poll
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Positive Reaction 23%
Negative Reaction 55%
Amount of News Coverage
Too Much
49%
Right Amount 28%
Too little13% (10% DK)
*Pew Center 10/1/2012
Debate Effects: Before and After
(CNN Polls)
80
67
70
60
59
50
40
30
34
25
20
10
0
Obama
Who Will Win?
Romney
Who Won?
Romney Favorable: Pre- Post-Debate
(Politico/GWU)
51
50
48
46
44
45
40
35
30
25
Sept 24-27
Favorable
Oct 7-11
Unfavorable
Obama Favorable: Pre- Post-Debate
(Politico/GWU)
55
50
53
50
47
45
45
40
35
30
25
Sept 24-27
Favorable
Oct 7-11
Unfavorable
What’s Else?
*Economic Picture is Mixed
*Polls:
-Who is a “likely voter”?
-Race tightening before Denver debate
-Undecided voters break to challenger
*Obama Approval Rating below 50%
*GOTV in battleground states: Organization v.
Enthusiasm
*Debates
*Volatile international scene: Middle East to Europe
*October Surprise?
Contributions from Education
(opensecrets.com)
$12,831,700
$14,000,000
$12,000,000
$10,000,000
$8,000,000
$6,000,000
$2,095,856
$4,000,000
$2,000,000
$0
Obama
Romney
Top Four Contributors
(opensecrets.org)
Romney
Obama
$800,000
$706,931
$891,140
$900,000
$700,000
$600,000
$544,445
$800,000
$526,009
$700,000
$500,000
$433,860 $600,000
$400,000
$500,000
$300,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$200,000
$100,000
$100,000
$0
$0
$668,139
$663,219
$554,066
Vote for Obama among key groups:
2008 Exit Poll v. Pew Poll (Oct 4-7)
66
70
60
53
52
48
50
40
30
20
10
0
College Grad
2008 Exit Poll
18-29
Pew Poll Oct 4-7
Obama Record on Higher Ed
• Doubled funding for Pell Grants
• Increased maximum tuition tax credit to
$2,500
• Prevented student loan interest rates from
doubling (along with Congress)
• Direct lending
• Capped federal student loan repayments at
10% of income and loan forgiveness (20
years)
Two Views of Higher Education
Obama Convention Speech
•
“Millions of students are paying
less for college today because we
finally took on a system that
wasted billions of taxpayer dollars
on banks and lenders.”
•
“No family should have to set
aside a college acceptance letter
because they don’t have the
money.”
•
“Help us work with colleges and
universities to cut in half the
growth of tuition costs over the
next ten years.”
Romney Convention Speech
• “Every family in America
wanted this to be a time
when they could get ahead a
little more, put aside a little
more for college….”
• “Every new college graduate
thought they'd have a good
job by now, a place of their
own, and that they could start
paying back some of their
loans and build for the
future.”
Policy Differences
•
•
•
•
Obama
Defend Pell Grants
Extend Education Tax Credit
Link aid to curbing tuition
costs
Crack down on for-profit
colleges
Romney
• Freeze Pell Grants at $5,500
for decade
• Reduce # of grant recipients
• Let Tuition Tax Credit Expire
• Private Lenders and Banks
issue subsidized loans
Agreement
• Both favor alternatives to the traditional four
year degree for some students
• Students and families should have
“comprehensive, transparent about costs
and value of colleges”
• Both concerned about tuition costs, though
neither confronts one of the causes of higher
tuition
New York Times, Sept 7, 2012
Budget Politics
• Sequestration
– Supplemental Ed Opportunity Grant (-7.6-8.2%)
– TRIO and GEAR UP (-8.2%)
– NIH and Energy Dept grants (-8.2%)
• Deficit Politics: Entitlements for the Elderly v.
Everything Else
• Reconciliation: Higher Ed a Bargaining Chip
Higher Education Reauthorization 2013
– Lending Authority
– Pell Grants
– Transparency and Reporting Requirements
– Rising Tuition and College Loan Debt
•
•
•
•
•
Online education
Student Services
Higher enrollments
Institutional Measures of Performance
Tighter Loan Limits under FAFSA
Higher Education Reauthorization 2013
• GOP Unified Government?
•
•
•
•
Possible Return of Bank Lending
Spending Cuts in Pell Grants
Defense over Domestic Spending Trade Off
Possible Higher Ed Reauthorization Stalemate in
Senate: Short term extension
• Divided Government?
• Preserve Direct Lending
• Split difference on Pell Grants
• Likely Higher Ed Reauthorization Stalemate