Teaching Economics as a Soft Science Achim Kemmerling Figure 7 Consumer and Producer Surplus in the Market Equilibrium Price A D Supply Consumer surplus Equilibrium price E Producer surplus B Demand C 0 Equilibrium quantity Quantity Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning Problems • Little diversity: too little empirics, few accepted methods, overconfidence in findings • Little normativity: implicit choices, role of politics • Little reflexivity: changing behaviour, no risk management Too little diversity • Very little empirics, with focus on one type of method (regression) and on one type of research design (quasi-experiment) • Focus on one type of theory (micro-based, representative consumer, no domain restrictions) Author Year Simple Stats Other quantitative anecdotal Micro Mankiw 1992 + − +++ Varian B&B 1992 2002 − ++ − − − ++ P&R Parkin Macro Blanchard 2005 2005 + + − − +++ +++ 2005 2006 1994 ++ + + − − − ++ + ++ C&S Mankiw Author Year Simple Stats Other quantitative anecdotal Micro Mankiw 1992 + − +++ Varian B&B 1992 2002 − ++ − − − ++ P&R Parkin Macro Blanchard 2005 2005 + + − − +++ +++ 2005 2006 1994 ++ + + − − − ++ + ++ C&S Mankiw Too little diversity • Very little empirics, with focus on one type of method (regression) and on one type of research design (quasi-experiment) • Focus on one type of theory (micro-based, representative consumer, no domain restrictions) Most economic models work like this: Most political science models work like this: Too little normativity • In theory problems of benchmarks and tradeoffs well-known, but in teaching they often disappear. • Politics is still more of a disturbance then a normative realm in itself The development of macroeconomic theory has shown policymakers how to reduce the severity of economic fluctuations. By “leaning against the wind” of economic change, monetary and fiscal policy can stabilize aggregate demand and, thereby, production and employment. (Mankiw, Principles of Economics, p. 793) A better model would acknowledge the great heterogeneity in consumer behavior that is apparent in the data. The saversspenders theory sketched here takes a small step toward including this microeconomic heterogeneity in macroeconomic theory, and it yields some new and surprising conclusions about fiscal policy (Mankiw AER 2000, p. 124). Too little normativity • In theory problems of benchmarks and tradeoffs well-known, but in teaching they often disappear. • Politics is still more of a disturbance then a normative realm in itself An example: Tax Politics • Economic theory of taxation produces a firstbest tax system • Political system produces a different type of tax (eg. the one preferred by the median voter) • Political equilibrium is second-best compared to the economic equilibrium • Problem: no political benchmark such as stability or legitimacy Too little reflexivity: • Economic theory changes people, and markets • But often in counterintuitive directions Economists Behave Differently in Lab Experiments Too little reflexivity: • Economic theory changes people, and markets • But often in counterintuitive directions A Fine is a Price (Gneezy, Rustichini 2000) • Child day care center fines parents who pick up their kids late. • Parents are gladly paying fine and pick kids up even later. • Day-care center lifts fine to restore old shaming equilibrium. • Parents still pick up kids later. Conclusions: A Softer Science • Teach pluralism: More types of theories and empirics, flagging out domain conditions. • Teach normativity: more on different benchmarks, more on politics. • Teach reflexivity: side-effects and unintended consequences of economic theory Thank you! Additional Stuff US Congress Bundestag Lawyer 168 155 Economics 50 135 Social Science 33 154 Other Academic 40 167 Total 435 622 House of Commons European Parliament A quick survey of textbooks Simple Stats Other quantitative anecdotal formal Focus Micro Mankiw 1992 + − +++ + Basics Varian 1992 − − − +++ normative B&B 2002 ++ − ++ ++ Intermediate P&R 2005 + − +++ + Basics Parkin 2005 + − +++ + Basics Blanchard 2005 ++ − ++ + Basics C&S 2006 + − + ++ Institutions Mankiw 1994 + − ++ + Basics B&W 1997 ++ − ++ + Europe S&L 1993 +++ + ++ + Non-OECD Macro A Comparison of Top Journals A Econ Rev A Soc Rev World Politics Formal Theory ++ Other Theory + Simple ++ Statistics − ++ ++ − +++ ++ Regressions Other Statistics +++ − ++ + ++ − Qualitative − + ++ A Comparison of Top Journals A Econ Rev A Soc Rev World Politics Formal Theory ++ Other Theory + Simple ++ Statistics − ++ ++ − +++ ++ Regressions Other Statistics +++ − ++ + ++ − Qualitative − + ++ A Comparison of Top Journals A Econ Rev A Soc Rev World Politics Formal Theory ++ Other Theory + Simple ++ Statistics − ++ ++ − +++ ++ Regressions Other Statistics +++ − ++ + ++ − Qualitative − + ++ Standard Reasoning Market Assumptions Equilibrium Efficiency Economic Reasoning Firms, Consumers Eg. Sonnenschein-Mantel-Debreu Markets clear Maximum Rents for Firms and Consumers Politico-Economic Reasoning Voters, Parties Eg. Median-Voter-Theorem, Probabilistic Voting Axioms Policy Decisions Are Made Suboptimal, Compared to Efficient Outcome Political Reasoning Voters, Parties Eg. Median-Voter-Theorem, Probabilistic Voting Axioms Policy Decisions Are Made Ensures Political Stability, Legitimacy…