The Constitution only mentions the
Electoral College –no parties or
nominations
Party leaders or Congressional
caucuses chose nominees and
convention delegates until the 20th
Century
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Direct primaries were one of the Progressive
reforms of the early 20th Century
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Evolution of primaries in Wayne, Ch. 1
Didn’t become the decisive mechanism for
choosing the nominee until 1972
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1968
President Lyndon B. Johnson runs for reelection at the height of the unpopularity of the
Vietnam War
Challenged by antiwar Sen. Eugene McCarthy
(Minnesota)
Johnson narrowly wins NH primary
Robert Kennedy enters after NH
Johnson drops out
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1968
VP Hubert Humphrey enters the race as a
replacement for LBJ after the filing deadlines have
passed, so he doesn’t have to compete in primaries
RFK assassinated after winning CA primary
Humphrey nominated by party leaders at
convention in Chicago without having run in
primaries
There were riots in the streets and Humphrey lost
to Nixon in the general election
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The Democratic Party then named a
commission chaired by Sen. George McGovern
(South Dakota) to recommend reforms to the
process
Emphasized participation of rank-and-file
party members and diversity of groups
Gender balance, affirmative action on the basis
of race and age
Almost all delegates must be chosen by voters
in primaries or caucuses
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Also affected Republican nominations because
most state laws apply to both parties
The first person to win the nomination under
rules proposed by the commission chaired by
George McGovern was…
George McGovern.
In the 1980’s, after several general election
defeats (McGovern, Carter, Mondale), the
Democratic Party re-emphasized the role of
party leaders in choosing the nominee.
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Why do they get to go first?
They established the tradition
New Hampshire started holding its primary in
March in 1916
Not the first nominating event until several
states that were earlier in the calendar changed
theirs
Until 1948, it was used to choose delegates but
not to express a presidential preference; most
delegates were uncommitted
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In 1952, NH adopted a presidential preference on
the primary ballot
“Beauty contest” primary – separate vote for
president and for delegates, so that expressing a
choice for president doesn’t automatically elect
delegates who support that candidate
May still be used by state parties in Republican primaries,
but not Democratic
 The Republican Party gives the states more flexibility in
designing their nominating mechanisms and how the
delegates are chosen
 The Democratic Party tends to use a one-size-fits-all
national model
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NH state law now requires that the primary be one
week earlier than any other state’s primary
From the beginning of the presidential preference
primary in 1952 until 1988, no one got elected
president who had not won his party’s New
Hampshire primary
Bill Clinton broke this streak in 1992
Four times the winner of the NH primary did not
win the D nomination
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Muskie 1972, Hart 1984, Tsongas 1992, H. Clinton 2008
Three times the winner of the NH primary did not
win the R nomination

Lodge 1964, Buchanan 1996, McCain 2000
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Iowa has always used a caucus/convention
system to choose delegates
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Five-step process of attending meetings and getting
elected at progressively larger gatherings
D’s moved to January in order to complete the
process in time
It got some attention in 1972
Both D and R caucuses were on the same day in 1976
Jimmy Carter came in second behind
“uncommitted” but got favorable publicity which
helped him win NH
Not as accurate a predictor of the eventual nominee
as New Hampshire
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Iowa caucus winners who did not win the D
nomination:
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Edmund Muskie 1972
Dick Gephardt 1988
Tom Harkin 1992 (Sen. from Iowa)
Iowa caucus winners who did not win the R
nomination:
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G.H.W. Bush 1980
Bob Dole 1988
Mike Huckabee 2008
Rick Santorum 2012 (virtual tie with Mitt Romney)
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There have been controversies about other
states trying to move their primaries up
The national parties have supported NH and
Iowa remaining first
Most reform efforts either support regional
primaries or a rotating schedule so that no one
always goes first
Lack of diversity in NH and IA populations led
to SC and NV being moved up on the calendar

REPUBLICANS

Bush 2
Carson 1
Cruz 4
Fiorina 2
Huckabee 1
Paul 3
Rubio 2
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DEMOCRATS
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Clinton 8
O’Malley 3
*Sanders 25*
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UNDECIDED 8
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“Any Republican” 2
Bush 1
Clinton 4
Clinton or Obama 1
Clinton or Sanders 1
Cruz 1
Cruz or Huckabee 1
Paul 1
Sanders 1
*Trump 40*
Trump or Clinton 2
Trump or Cruz 2
Trump or O’Malley 1
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Most of the strongly anti-Trump voters are
Democrats, but some are supporting other
Republican candidates
Clinton has more anti-votes than any candidate
besides Trump