From Wine to Beer:
Changing Patterns of Alcoholic Consumption and
Living Standards in Late-Medieval Flanders, 1300 –
1550
by John Munro (University of Toronto)
revised 14 July 2010
From Wine to Beer in LateMedieval Flanders: Introduction
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1) Northern Europe: land of beer & butter;
vs. southern Europe as land of wine and olive oil:
not always so: not in medieval Europe
2) Meagre evidence on this shift in the North:
declining per capita wine consumption and rising per
capita beer consumption:
• from studies by: Margery James, Michael Postan, Hans
Van Werveke, Jan Craeybeckx, Herman Van der Wee,
Richard Unger: who all believe that there was such a
shift
• but who neither substantiate fully that belief nor fully
explain how it happened (see below: the ‘hop thesis’).
Van Werveke & Craeybeckx on
Ghent wine consumption
Years
Per capita wine
consumption in
litres (annual)
Years
Per capita wine
consumption in
litres (annual)
1361
38.00
1406
16.00
1370
38.00
1410
25.00
1377
44.00
1413
15.00
1381
33.00
1431
17.50
1387
30.00
1432
30.00
1390
19.50
1433
23.00
1401
24.00
1437
26.00
1402
23.00
1452
16.50
1405
18.00
1466
16.50
Do Relative Price Changes Explain
this Shift? (1)
• 1) Premises:
• a) that wine was always more expensive than beer:
• b) that, by Engels’ Law, rising real incomes should have led to
some shift from beer to wine – not the reverse as is posited here.
• 2) Wine Prices:
• see chart on wine prices and mason’s wages: compare with ‘penny
ales’ (per gelte or gallon)
• but did wine become relatively more expensive?
• 3) Evidence on real wages of Flemish bldg craftsmen: rising overall
from 1350 to 1470s (but we will focus later on mid-15th century)
• - but regressing wine consumption on real wages for this entire
period produces a negative result:
• Multiple R = -0.59192; adjusted R-sq = 0.31319;
• standard error = 10.86127; T-Statistic = -3.64858
Rhine Wine Prices & Mason’s Daily
Wages at Antwerp: 1420-1470
Years
Rhine Wine
prices in d. gr.
per litre
Master
Mason’s Daily
Wage in d. gr.
Litres of wine
per daily wage
One litre as
Percentage of
Daily Wage
1421-25
2.928
7.500
2.561
39.04%
1426-30
3.838
7.500
1.954
51.17%
1431-35
4.372
9.025
2.064
48.44%
1436-40
4.947
9.500
1.920
52.07%
1441-45
3.891
10.800
2.776
36.03%
1446-50
3.908
11.250
2.878
34.74%
1451-55
3.521
11.250
3.195
31.30%
1456-60
4.032
11.250
2.790
38.24%
1461-65
3.820
11.250
2.945
33.96%
1466-70
4.014
11.250
2.803
35.68%
Climatic Changes and Wine
Production in the North?
• 2) Adverse climatic changes in later medieval Europe:
• Was there any impact on northern wine growing?
• - 14th & 15th centuries: descent in mean temperatures from
the ‘Medieval Warming’ period (when wine had been
cultivated in England):
• - but relative stabilization in 15th century
• - data from Craig Loehle and J. Huston McCulloch,
‘Correction to: A 2000-Year Global Temperature
Reconstruction Based on Non-Tree Ring Proxies’, Energy
and Environment, 19:1 (2008), 93-100
• 2) no evidence of adverse effects on northern European
wine cultivation;
• certainly not in southern Europe
Do Relative Price Changes Explain
this Shift? (2)
• 1) Problems with wine and beer prices:
• a) Wine prices, in consecutive series, available only from
1420s: those for Rhine wines at the Antwerp market
• b) No beer prices: since beer prices per gelte or gallon were
fixed (‘penny ale’): but beer quantities varied
• 2) Best proxy for beer prices:
• a) those for barley: consecutive annual series
• b) but beer also brewed from wheat and oats
• c) missing: prices of other ingredients (hops, gruit) and
labour
• 3) Evidence of prices: from 1420s: indeterminate, though
they do not favour beer over wine: indeed, the reverse!
The Wine Trade at Antwerp
• 1) The wine import trade remained healthy at the
Antwerp market in the 16th century
• 2) Guicciardini: Italian merchant who published data
on Antwerp’s trade in 1560s, on imports
• 3) Extensive data on wine imports – from France,
Rhineland, and Mediterranean (Italy, Spain, Portugal):
12.80% of total imports, and 28.19% of total nontextile imports
• 4) No statistics on beer imports: from Germany and
Holland: perhaps of no interest to this Italian!
• 5) Evidence for beer consumption: town accounts
The Postan Thesis: Technological
Innovations: Hops
• 1) The Postan Thesis (CEH: 1952): technological change:
• - the crucial factor was the introduction of hops: in North
German (Hamburg) and Dutch towns, from the 1320s
• 2) Postan thesis basically endorsed by: Craeybeckx, Van
der Wee, Unger (& many others): how valid is the thesis?
• 3) The importance of hops: replacing gruit in brewing
• a) Long Distance Trade: hops improved both the stability
and durability of brewed beers (as well as taste): stored for
longer times, transported over longer distances
• b) Safety in ‘drinkability’: hops improved the sterilization
process
• not all bacteria killed by boiling: note that beer is about
90% water
Beer & Wine: as Necessities
• 1) Wine and Beer: in pre-modern societies, were not
‘sinful luxuries’ but vital necessities: because water and
milk were generally unsafe to drink, especially in urban
areas (pollution)
• – though clearly many continued to drink unsafe water and
milk
• 2) Koch (1876), Pasteur (1878): discovery of bacterial
transmission of diseases  sewage & water purification
systems in NW Europe, North America  rapid fall in
mortalities (reflecting prior bad water consumption)
• 3) Cartoon: Hagar the Horrible (A Viking): which quite
unintentionally makes this very point: on the ‘safety’ value
of beer
Importance of Beer in Later
Medieval Household Budgets
• 1) Robert Allen’s consumer price index:
• - Beer: 20.6% share: in his basket of consumer
expenditures (same for wine in southern Europe)
• 2) other price indexes: Phelps Brown & Hopkins
(England): 22.5% share; Rappaport (London): 20.0%;
Munro (Flanders): 20.43%; Van der Wee (Brabant):
17.08% : all have beer; none has wine in the basket
• 3) Nutritional Values: Allen’s caloric quantification: for
annual household budgets: in late-medieval, earlymodern Europe
• a) northern budget: 182 litres of beer = 77,532 C.
• b) Mediterranean budget: 68.5 litres wine = 58,035 C.
Per capita beer consumption: the Low
Countries and Germany, 1370 -1650
Town
Year
Annual: litres
Daily: litres
Antwerp
1418
210
0.575
1526
369
1.011
1531
369
1.011
1567
295
0.808
1568
346
0.948
1612
259
0.710
1618
420
1.150
1372
277
0.759
1434
210
0.575
1472
271
0.742
1500
275
0.753
Leuven
Per capita beer consumption: Low
Countries and Germany, 1370 -1650
Town
Year
Annual: litres
Daily: litres
Leuven
1524
273
0.750
1574
273
0.748
1601
285
0.780
1650
350
0.960
1540
325
0.890
1582
307
0.840
1600
405
1.110
1639
277
0.760
Mechelen
Per capita beer consumption: the Low
Countries and Germany, 1370 -1650
Town
Year
Litres: Annual
Litres: Daily
‘s-Hertogenbosch
1500
248
0.680
1530
274
0.750
1560
270
0.740
1590
164
0.450
1620
248
0.680
1650
212
0.580
1544
263
0.720
1550
263
0.721
1597
157
0.430
1600
158
0.433
Bruges
Per capita beer consumption: the Low
Countries and Germany, 1370 -1650
Town
Year
Annual: litres
Daily: litres
Ghent
1579
201
0.550
1606
157
0.430
1475
250
0.685
1514
158
0.433
1590
300
0.822
1514
228
0.625
1543
269
0.737
1571
267
0.732
1621
301
0.825
Haarlem
Leiden
Per capita beer consumption: the Low
Countries and Germany, 1370 -1650
Town
Year
Annual: litres
Daily: litres
Hamburg
1450
250
0.685
1475
310
0.849
1500
320
0.877
1525
285
0.781
1550
400
1.096
Lübeck
1550
400
1.096
Nuremburg
1551
300
0.822
272
0.744
Mean
Problems with the Hop Thesis: the
Flemish Urban Evidence
• 1) Basic problem with the ‘hop thesis’: major shift
from wine to beer came too late: not till 1420s - 30s
• 2) The Evidence the Treasurers’ accounts for Bruges
and Aalst: annual sales of excise-tax farms on wine,
beer, grains, meat, fish, textiles:
• but chiefly alcoholic beverages (beer + wine)
• 3) excise tax-farms (on urban household consumption
only): urban revenues chiefly used to finance public
debt payments: on rentes (annuities)
• rentes: sold primarily to finance warfare (Europeanwide, except in England and Italy).
Flemish Urban Accounts: Wine &
Beer Excise Tax Farms
• 4) Wine and Beer excise taxes: in Flemish urban accounts
• chief taxes: on consumption of necessities that were also
very addictive  highly inelastic demand
• - very highly regressive taxes on lower income strata of
urban societies:
• - note: data come from tax farm sales  understate actual
tax burden, since tax farmers expected to collect far more
in taxes
• - no public exemptions (except for religious orders): unlike
property taxes (see final table: for Brabant)
• - only urban consumers paid these excise taxes: not
imposed in rural areas (whose inhabitants paid property &
other direct taxes)
The Bruges Financial Accounts
• 1) Especially valuable: in two respects for Flanders:
• a) the only urban accounts extant from early 14th century: from
1308, with few annual lacunae (unlike Ghent accounts; or Ypres –
none extant until 1406): data in graphs and tables in this study 
to 1500
• b) evidence on consumption of foreign as well as domestic beers.
• 2) Foreign beer imports: from Germany and Holland
• a) Hamburg beers: from 1333 (possibly hop beers)
• b) ‘Hop & Delft’ beers: from 1380: Dutch beers: initially much more
important than Hamburg beers, but sharply diminishing from 1411:
• - 1430: Delft beers amalgamated with German beers
• c) from 1430s: foreign beers decline in both absolute (‘real’) &
relative importance  predominance of Bruges beer
• d) Why? Warfare with Hanseatic League and England – to 1470s.
Aalst vs. Bruges Financial Accounts
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•
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•
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1) Importance of the Aalst annual financial accounts:
- a) begin in 1395: but then virtually continuous (to 1550)
- b) provide wage data to 1550: Bruges: none after 1485
2) Comparisons with the Bruges accounts on beer:
a) Aalst: primacy of beer established from the beginning: 63% of
total alcoholic excise farms in 1390s, but still only 67% ca. 1420
b) Bruges: beer: 34% of that total in 1308-10; only 33% in 1381-85;
37% in 1416-20
- note: Bruges wealthier, more mercantile, cosmopolitan town 
greater retained preference for imported wines.
c) In both sets: more decisive shift to beer from late 1420s
- i) Bruges: from 52% in 1431-35 to 70% in 1490s
- ii) Aalst: from 73% in 1431-35 to 83% in 1466-70 (80% in 14961500)
Estimating the Burdens of Urban
Excise Taxes (1)
• 1) Problem: the nominal money-of-account values of the
excise-tax farms sales are otherwise useless in estimating
tax burdens
• 2) Reason: the impact of coinage debasements (finance
warfare)  consequent inflations
• - grams silver in Flemish penny (groot): fell from 2.067 g in
1350 to 0.463 g in 1482 (0.479 in 1500)
• - Flemish CPI (1451-75=100): rose from 60.5 in 1351-56 to
184.5 in 1486-90: 3-fold inflationary rise
• 3) Note: periodic coinage debasements  sharply
reduced real incomes of wage-earners & those on fixed
incomes (salaries, rents, pensions, etc.): RWI = NWI/CPI
• - BUT so did the rises in highly regressive excise taxes
Estimating the Burdens of Urban
Excise Taxes (2)
• 4) Two statistical methods of estimating the
‘real’ burden of urban excise tax farms:
• a) Calculate the number of Flemish ‘commodity
baskets’ (in the CPI) whose value = total
revenues of the excise tax farms: especially on
beer and wine
• b) Calculate the number of years’ of a master
mason’s money-wage income whose value =
total revenues of the excise tax farms (for Bruges:
total of alcohol-based excise tax farms)
Real Tax Burdens during the
Golden Age of the Artisans
• 1) mid 15th-century ‘Golden Age of the
Artisans’ (and labourers): concept based on
evidence for real-wages of craftsmen in
Flanders (and Brabant, and England):
• 2) Rise in real wage index (RWI = NWI/CPI)
from ca. 1440 to ca. 1470: basically
determined by deflation: when coinage
debasements had ceased and other forces for
monetary contraction  fall in price level
Importance of the Aalst wage and
excise-tax data
• 1) The real wage data for Aalst during the Golden Age:
also show marked rise c. 1440 – c. 1470 (RWI =
NWI/CPI)
• 2) BUT the real value or burden of the excise tax
farms, as measured in annual incomes of master
mason: also rise in the very same period, offsetting
some of the rise in crude real wages
• 3) Rising urban excise tax burden: rising taxes to
finance steep rise in public debts incurred to finance
previous and current warfare
• - note: in England there were no such excise taxes until
the 1640s (Civil War era)
Flemish Economy from 1420s
• 4) Importance of the post-1420s era for
Flanders:
• a) rising excise-tax burdens: from warfare, which
had also spawned deleterious coinage
debasements
• b) more rapid decline in traditional woollen
draperies: and economic declines of Bruges,
Ypres and Ghent
• c) period of more rapid shift from wine to beer
• - was that more pronounced shift to beer due to
real income changes?
Demographic Questions
• 1) Estimates of burdens of the urban excise taxes: based
on assumptions of stable populations
• 2) But, did Flemish populations (urban & rural) continue to
decline, as in England? Evidence for Flanders is mixed:
urban declines from 7% to 28% (Ypres); but a few towns did
not suffer any significant decline.
• 3) Significance of the question: if urban populations fell 
Δ per capita tax burden: i.e., increase in household taxes
• 4) For duchy of Brabant, from 1437 to 1496
• – just to east of Aalst, evidence of severe population
decline, along with increased poverty (poor hearths)
• - a) small towns: overall decline of 25.14%
• - b) villages: overall decline of 26.35%
Living Standards and Alcoholic
Consumption (1)
• (1) The mid fifteenth-century as the Golden Age of
the Artisan?
• We now have many doubts that this long traditional
view is valid for Flanders.
• (2) Demography and the late-medieval economy
• Was it the ‘Golden Age of Bacteria’, as Sylvia Thrupp
once said?
• How else do we explain continued population decline
to ca. 1500, in both England and the Low Countries?
• demographic decline does not reflect growing
prosperity -- especially with increased percentages
of non-taxed ‘poor hearths’ in Brabant
Living Standards and Alcoholic
Consumption (2)
(3) Adverse Economic events and falling real incomes?
• a) 1420s – 1430s: warfare  coinage debasements inflation;
• and also the onset of irredeemable decline and downfall of the
traditional urban textile industries
• b) 1440s – 1460s: end of warfare  monetary stability  deflation
and rising real wages: BUT offset by rising excise taxes to pay for
previous wars
• - Also: serious conflicts with the Hanseatic League and England
• c) 1470s – 1490s: more warfare (including civil wars)  coinage
debasements  inflation
• d) 1520s (to the end of this series: 1550): onset of Price Revolution
in which consumer prices rose more than did nominal wages  fall
in real wage incomes of lower strata of Low Countries’ societies
(but real burden of excise taxes fell with inflation, but not offsetting
real wage decline)
Living Standards and Alcoholic
Consumption (3)
(4) Comparisons of the shift to beer in Bruges and Aalst:
• a) the 15th-century shift to beer was proportionately greater in
Bruges, though the level of wine consumption remained higher
than in Aalst, by the 1490s
• b) The economic decline of Bruges and the loss of international
trade to Antwerp, especially from the 1460s:
• - did that reduce the percentage of foreign, especially Latinspeaking merchants there: and hence help explain the more rapid
relative shift?
• c) The relative shift from wine to beer may have been the greatest
in the middle socio-economic strata of these urban societies,
rather than in the still rich upper classes or relatively poor working
classes –
• especially if wines were too expensive for working-class
households: how representative are the Rhine wine prices?
A final observation
• Beer is always golden –
• for the Low Countries, at least –
• except of course for those who prefer donker
bier.