Lecture to:
Arlington Technological Association
Col (R) Ted Hailes
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The New Battlespace: 2030
• Future enemies
• motivated by resources, fear, and hate;
• empowered through education; and
• enabled through technology and globalization to directly
challenge the US
• The enemy will be different – the targets they
present will be more difficult to find, harder to hit,
more widely distributed, and more dangerous
Research Question: How do we prepare
the US military for these new challenges?
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Research
4 overlapping one year studies determined:
Technology accelerating at an exponential rate and the
consequences harsh and real
Attempted a prioritize list of future technologies to guide today's
funding decisions for tomorrows challenges
Guidance to senior decisions makers to understand the real
impact of technology in 2030?
And how our defense systems and strategic concepts be
adapted to deter an enemy in 2030?
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Research
4 overlapping one year studies determined:
Technology accelerating at an exponential rate and the
consequences harsh and real
Attempted a prioritize list of future technology to guide today's
funding decisions for tomorrows challenges
Guidance to senior decisions makers to understand the real
impact of technology in 2030?
And how our defense systems and strategic concepts be
adapted to deter an enemy in 2030?
4
Methodology
Student Participants
 Line Officers – top 12% of peer group
 Faculty selected for quality and diversity
 All volunteers – higher workload for year
Student Preparation
Regional Studies
Technology
 45 in class hours on ISS
 TDY to CIA, DIA, State
 TDY to region (ex. Russia & China)
 In-depth reading program
 TDY to AFRL (WPAFB & ABQ)
 40 hrs in class on Technology
Research Methodology
 4 alternate futures for 2030
 Jihadist Insurgency
 Failed State
 Peer China
 Resurgent Russia
 58 Concepts; 172 underlying tech
 Quantitative operations analysis of
all 58 concepts conducted against all
four alternative futures assisted by
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First a quick summary of the
principle findings from 4 years of
research
Of academic interest – will show both
methodology and results
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Enduring Truths
Truth
Effect
Devastating power moving from
Nation to Group to Individual
Most probable becomes
very dangerous
High
WMD
Consequence
Conventional
Insurgency
Spectrum
of Conflict
Terrorist
Individual
Low
Low Probability High
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Enduring Truths
Truth
Effect
Devastating power moving from
Nation to Group to Individual
Dominance no longer possible
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Enduring Truths
Truth
Effect
Infusion of Technology
Devastating power moving from
Nation to Group to Individual
Dominance no longer possible
1700
1800
1900
2000
Amount of new technology
introduced 1800 - 1900
Amount of new technology
introduced 1900 - 2000
Amount of new technology
introduced 2000-2025
Tech change inevitable and
accelerating
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Enduring Truths
Truth
Effect
Science & Technology Driven By
• Profit
• Social pressures
• Scientific curiosity
• Military requirements
Facts to Contemplate
• ~70% of US R&D privately funded
• ~70% of all R&D outside of US
Conclusion
• US Government has little say over
what is developed, who gets it or
how it will be employed
Devastating power moving from
Nation to Group to Individual
Dominance no longer possible
Tech change inevitable and
accelerating
USG has little control over shape,
direction or proliferation of technology
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Enduring Truths
Effect
Truth
By preparing for the worst
case scenario – the lesser
included cases will be
covered
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Enduring Truths
Effect
Truth
By preparing for the worst case
scenario – the lesser included
cases will be covered
Exponential technological
change largely driven by the
synergistic effects of multiple
science specialties and they
can’t be isolated
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Blue Horizons
Bottom Line Upfront
• Accepted premise – Exponential Technological Change
• Tasking:
“…develop a prioritized list of concepts and their key
enabling technologies that the U.S. Air Force will need to
maintain the dominant air and space forces in the future”
Expected Results
Actual Results
• A small list of key technologies
would enable a large percentage
of future concepts/systems
• Synergistic impact of underlying
technologies preclude a prioritized
list – must invest across disciplines
• Preferred systems and underlying
technologies would vary with the
type of warfare
• In fact, preparing for the worst
case scenario does prepare the AF
to cover the lesser included cases
such as counter-insurgent and
irregular warfare
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2030 Alternate Futures:
Rooted in National and AF Guidance
“The United States must: Strengthen alliances to defeat
global terrorism and work to prevent attacks against us
and our friends…(and)…work with others to diffuse
regional conflicts…”
Alternate Futures: Failed State and Jihadist
Insurgency
“Our strategy seeks to encourage China to make the right
choices for its people, while we hedge against other
possibilities.”
Alternate Future: Peer China
“Russia has great influence not only in Europe and its own
immediate neighborhood, but also in many other regions
of vital interest to us…(but) recent trends point to a
diminishing commitment to democratic freedom and
institutions.”
Alternate Future: Resurgent Russia
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BH 2030 Research Methodology
Quantitative Analysis
m
Model equation:
1 n
S (x) [ im i ]
j 1 m i 1
Concepts scored across all four alternate futures using the
following value model:
Superiority in Air, Space and Cyber
Global Vigilance
Global Reach
Detect
Understand Command Deploy
Maintain
In Air
Identify
Survive
To Air
In Space
integrate
Comm
To Space Sustain
In Cyber
To Cyber
On Surface
Subsurface
To Surface
Global Power
Replenish Engage
Readiness In Air
In Air
In Air
In Space
In Space
In Space
On Surface
Subsurface
In Cyber
In Cyber
On Surface
Subsurface
On Surface
Subsurface
International
Reaction
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Survive
BH 2030 Research Methodology
Quantitative Analysis
• Capability curves were created for each of 47 significant AF
military capabilities in each scenario.
– Values curves do vary by scenario
• Each of the 58 concepts were then scored using these
capability functions.
Non-linear Step Function for
Combat Aircraft Survivability
(Resurgent Russia Scenario)
Linear Mathematical Function for Space
Launch Payload Capacity: ω=0.004X, where
X=Payload in Pounds
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BH 2030 Research Methodology
Quantitative Analysis
• Capability Scores were then Multiplied by Value Scores
– Value Scores were Determined by a Separate Set of Models –
One for Each Future
• Structure of the Model is the Same for Each Scenario,
but the Weights are Different
– Values at each level sum to 100 percent
– Weights of model components vary by scenario
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BH 2030 Research Methodology
Quantitative Analysis
• Technology Model
– 172 mutually exclusive but comprehensively exhaustive enabling
technologies underpin the 58 concepts
• Technologies scored points based on the value of the
concept(s) they underpinned.
– Model is a 172 x 58 x 4 three-dimensional matrix
– Fundamental Model Equation is:
• Output: A prioritized list of enabling technologies of greatest
value to the AF
7,501,952 Components in the Model Reduced to a
Prioritized List
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Blue Horizons
Alternate Futures
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Resurgent Russia
Why Russia?
– Key supplier of world energy
– Major world economy – high potential for rapid increase via wealth from
hydrocarbon exports
– Transitioning philosophy – Communism, ~ Democracy, to autocracy?
– NATO expansion – regional tensions increasing
– Rising nationalism and xenophobia
– Large nuclear stockpile with modernizing conventional capabilities
– Demands a role on the world stage
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Peer China
• Why China?
– In 2030, world’s largest country in terms of population and GDP
– A regional military peer with a limited—but growing—global power
projection capability
– A nation whose future strategic direction is still uncertain, but one
who also has many strategic options
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Failed State
Case Study – Nigeria
• Why Nigeria?
– Key US oil supplier; active insurgency (MEND) attacking oil infrastructure
– Top 20 world economy
– Disproportionate influence on regional stability – Nigeria’s failure can ignite
wars between and within neighboring countries
– Largest population in Africa
– Growing Islamic population in the North follows Shari’a Law
– Rampant institutional corruption; haven for transnational criminal enterprises
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Jihadist Insurgency
Case Study – Middle East
• Why the Middle East?
– Disruption to vital oil resource
– Wealth and military capability in
hands of Jihadists → disastrous
– Muslim holy cities must not fall into
hands of radical Muslims
– Regional power balance - Sunni
counterweight to Shiia Iraq and
Iran
– Substantial population growth with
poor outlook in labor economics
fostering discontent
– Existing low level insurgency –
strong potential for expanded
religious, ethnic, and tribal conflict
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Blue Horizons
2008 Operational Analysis
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Summary of 58 Concepts
• Notional systems (in most cases) representing specific capabilities
• Some top concepts are worth exploring for production
• Concepts provide a vehicle for evaluating enabling technologies
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Top Concepts
Across All Alternate Futures
Pathfinder
41 Enabling Technologies
Integrated multi-spectral sensors for threat
acquisition
Flight systems incorporate self-diagnosis and
repair
Multiple technique jamming devices and arrays –
arrays embedded in aircraft skin
Able to control jamming swarms and coordinate
other engagements through battle management
system
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Top Concepts
Across All Alternate Futures
Cyberspace UAV
11 Enabling Technologies
A virtual “vehicle” in a virtual world
Guarantees survivability of cyberspace in a
high threat environment
Provides a dynamic view of cyberspace
Trusted integrated cyber-defense for AF and
DOD networks
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Top Concepts
Across All Alternate Futures
Hybrid High Energy Laser
13 Enabling Technologies
Space-based mirrors enable nearly unattenuated
laser propagation through space
Mirror positioning would enable rapid DE attack
of any unobstructed (by weather) target (air,
ground, space) in real-time
Able to destroy soft and medium targets
Able to degrade some hard targets (e.g., burn
wheels of armored vehicles, burn off tread from
tanks) where soft spots exist
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Rank Order of Concepts
Across All Alternate Futures
Ranking of key concepts relatively constant across alternate futures
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Evaluating Technology Scores
172 Technologies Across All Futures
Knee?
While there appears to be a “knee” in the curve…
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Evaluating Technology Scores
Pathfinder’s 41 Enabling Technologies
Even the top concept requires
technologies in the tail of the curve
57 of 58 Concepts Require Technologies in the Tail of the Curve
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Blue Horizons - Bottom Line
• Accepted premise – Exponential Technological Change
• Tasking:
“…develop a prioritized list of concepts and their key
enabling technologies that the U.S. Air Force will need to
maintain the dominant air and space forces in the future”
Actual Results
• Synergistic impact of underlying technologies preclude a prioritized
list – must invest across disciplines
• If you disinvest in selected technological areas – risk increased
substantially
• Preparing for the worst case scenario does prepare the AF to cover
the lesser included cases such as counter-insurgent and irregular
warfare
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Surprises emerged – though a
technological study - the human
is still a critical part of the
equation
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Changing Role of Man and Machine
Man is the machine
Man’s “value added” is
shifting: physical to
cognitive to ethical
Man controlling the machine
Man employing the machine
Man observing
the machine
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Impact:
Human Driven Out of the Loop
Exponential Technological Change forces humans out of
the decision loop
Observe
• New
OODAnews
Loopinrecognizes
the Age of Surprise
Number ofnumber
inputs of inputs
• Increasing
• Time compressing at machine
speeds
• Old
news to an “OODA Point”
• OODA getting smaller
Decide
Orient
OODA Point
Act
Orient
Observe
Decide
Act
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Factors Squeezing Humans Out of the Loop
• OPERATIONAL REALITY: An inherent movement
toward increased efficiency
• HUMAN INTENT: Political and military imperative –
machines do the dull, dangerous and dirty
• EXPONENTIALLY RISING TECH: Technology providing
better solutions at an increasing rate
• This creates an Ethical Dilemma
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The Man in the Loop Dilemma
Policy Assumption
• Man will stay in the control loop
• Result: No Ethical Dilemma
Ethic(s) = 0
Moral(s) = 0
Value(s) = 0
Reality
• Constant and persistent drive to increase autonomous
capability
• Belief that brilliant machines will avoid human error
generated by fear, emotion, agenda, speed or facts
In fact, Exponential Technological Change is outpacing
the ethical programming of unmanned technology
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Approaches to Keep
Man in the Loop
Artificial
Intelligence
• Machine to
machine
• Autonomous
action
Intelligence
Augmentation
• Pharmacology
• Bio enhancement
• Human-Machine
connectivity
Education &
Training
• Adjust
requirements
• Foster agility
• Select/promote
right players
Genomics Neuroscience Human Factors
Education Training
Computer Science Psychology Pharmacology
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