ASTARTE test site Lyngen
Carl B. Harbitz – NGI
(adapted by Alberto Armigliato)
ASTARTE WP8 Meeting
Bologna, 7 March 2014
Lyngen test site, northern Norway
Lyngen test site, northern Norway
•
Potential rockslide from the mountain Nordnes,
7 km from the village Lyngseidet
•
Volume estimate up to 22 Mm3
with 11 Mm3 as the most likely upper limit
1810 Rock slide tsunami
from Pollfjellet Mountain
Among the largest rock slides in Norway
2 km wide head scar, 20 km south of Nordnes
Waves observed more than 20 km away
in both directions
3 large waves
2 m high waves in the head of the fjord
14 perished, large damages
Today: Road tunnel to protect
snow avalanches and
rockfalls
Vulnerability and risk
• The Lyngen test site consists of
several villages along the fjord based
on fishery and local industry
• Total population 6000
• The ferries and the boats on the
fjord, together with the road running
along the shoreline, are the only
alternatives for transport and
travelling in the region
• The area is much visited by tourists
What has already been done by NGI?
• 3 reports on rockslide
tsunamis in Lyngen
•
•
•
2008, 2010, 2013
Updated volume estimates
Refined inundation modelling
• NGI’s results are the
official ones used by the
local authorities for
evacuation and land-use
planning, etc.
Description of the rockslide
Detailed geological
surveying for
slope stability analysis
«1a» ~ 7 Mm3
«2» ~ 11 Mm3
Bathymetry, rockslide location
•
Areas 1-31 for
detailed
inundation
studies
Nordnes
rock slope
Official results
Used for evacuation and land-use
planning, etc. (in pipeline)
Location
Name
1
2
3
4
Koppangen
Årøybukt
Elvejorda
Lyngseidet
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Karnes
Kjeldnes
Pollneset
Lyngspollen
Furuflaten
Rasteby
Elvenes
Elvevollen
Oteren
Horsnes-Elsnes
Skibotn
Forraneset
Brattvoll
Indre-Nordnes
Nordnesodden
Manndalen
Skarvdalen
Birtavarre
Trollvik
Langneset-Strand
Strand
Olderdalen
Nordmannvik
Strandli-Engeneset
Djupvik
Spakenes
Hamnes
Runup
Min [m]
Max [m]
2
7
2
14
5
36
6
33
4
4
4
3
4
3
2
2
2
3
3
3
11
19
14
3
3
3
3
3
5
6
3
3
3
2
2
19
21
7
11
8
6
7
6
6
10
15
31
46
46
11
3
6
4
5
13
17
17
8
5
5
5
Arrival
[minutter]
5
3
2
2
3
3
3
8
7
8
10
15
24
13
9
5
2
<1
<1
5
7
12
8
6
4
3
4
5
6
8
13
Data
G
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
G
F
F
F
F
G
G
G
G
F
F
G
F
G
F
F
F
G
G
Mitigation
•
Rockslope monitoring
•
•
Lasers, crackmeters, tiltmeters,
rod extensometers, GPS network,
instrumented boreholes
TWS system based on the monitoring
•
•
Operational cell phone warning; location and address
72 hours warning!
•
Initial land-use and evacuation planning for rockslide tsunamis in
Lyngen is now performed by the ASTARTE end-users Troms
County, the local municipalities, and the preparedness centre
NordNorsk FjellOvervåking (NNFO) http://www.nnfo.no/
•
Much based on studies of rockslide tsunamis by NGI
•
2013 Barents Rescue international emergency exercise
Available data for analysis of tsunami
hazard, vulnerability and resilience, risk
•
•
•
Bathymetry (resolution 25 m)
Topography (1 m contours in most areas)
Rockslide scenarios
•
•
•
•
•
•
Location, volume, configuration, monitoring data/movements, dynamics
Literature and data on the
submarine landslides (+NERC)
Detailed modelling of tsunami
inundation scenarios
Data on population,
infrastructure, critical facilities,
land use, ecosystems, tourism, etc.
Experience from exercise
Some data are restricted
Submarine landslide tsunami sources (1)
• At least 6 very large landslides have
occurred in the Norwegian and Greenland
Basins during the last ~20ka, giving a
frequency of 1 in ~3-to-4000 years
• The 8200 BP Storegga Slide produced
a far field tsunami
• This project will consider tsunamis
generated at 3 different locations within
the Norwegian and Greenland Basins to
capture the effects of variable source location
Submarine landslide
tsunami sources (2)
•
Modelling will consider a range of
landslide motions, including how
multi-stage failure affects tsunami
generation
•
Slide motion will be informed by field
studies of the Trænadjupet Slide,
which is the last major slide at ~4 ka.
•
This work will extend from a £2.3
Million UK (NERC) funded research
project, which includes a 1 month
research cruise to map and date the
Trænadjupet Slide in summer 2014
Lyngen test site interaction
with other ASTARTE WPs
• WP2: Tsunami source areas and likelihood
• WP3: Tsunami «source design»
• WP5: Tsunami impact on
coastal structures
• WP7: Norwegian fjords as a
laboratory for short-time TWS?
• WP8: Tsunami hazard and risk analysis
•
Applications of methods
• WP9: Tsunami resilience analysis
The EU FP7 CONCERT-Japan RAPSODI project:
Risk Assessment and design of Prevention Structures
fOr enhanced tsunami DIsaster resilience (2013-2015)
1. Establish a new method for
quantitative tsunami risk assessment
2. Design of novel mitigation measures
3. Cooperation and exchange of knowledge
Partners:
NGI, Norway – PARI, Japan – METU, Turkey – TU-BS, Germany
http://www.ngi.no/en/Project-pages/RAPSODI/
Why Lyngen?
•
A real threat exists! The situation is
considered hazardous
•
Combination of sources
•
Rockslides and submarine landslides
•
Special challenges related to
complex fjord geometries
•
Much work already performed
• Slope stability and tsunami analyses, monitoring, operational TWS,
evacuation and land-use planning, rescue exercises  Much data
•
Norwegian fjords as a laboratory for short-time TWS
•
Attractive, but don’t forget the climate (70o N) 
•
Our kind request: All work should be planned jointly with the end-user
•
•
•
Ensure usefulness and consistency
Avoid confusion and fear
 Joint workshop for “Lyngen partners”
Thank you
What has already been done by NGI?
• 2008: NGI report 20071677-1, run-up based on
amplification factors. Volumes 7 og 11 Mm3
• 2010: NGI report 20100617-00-1-R, suggesting
areas to be included for refined run-up modelling.
Volume 22Mm3.
• 2013: NGI report 20130206-01-R, hazard zoning by
using run-up model («MOST»).
• NGI’s results are the official ones.
• The set of numerical models at NGI were improved
during the last ten years (generation, propagation
and run-up)