Workforce Continuing Education FTE and Enrollment Trends Annual Years – 2012, 2013, 2014 DRAFT REPORT For more information, contact: Barbara Boyce @ boyceb@nccommunitycolleges.edu or 919-807-7158 Margaret Roberton @ robertonm@nccommunitycolleges.edu or 919-807-7159 Workforce Continuing Education FTE and Enrollment Trends Table of Contents Trend by Budget Codes Trends by Program Area Codes Trends by Course Titles College Reports Tier Funding Data References The data found in this document comes from custom statistical reports exported from the NCCCS Data Warehouse on March 12, 2015. Enrollment and FTE figures may vary among tables due to queries used to develop the reports and/or from the rounding-off of numbers. The purpose of this document is to provide community college staff with an overview of the types of reports used by System Office staff to analyze FTE and enrollment trends. The information contained in this document is not official and is not intended to replace any official source. 2 Workforce Continuing Education TRENDS BY BUDGET CODES 3 Trends by Budget Codes (Table Structure) 1 Table Heading Occupational Extension College 2011 FTE 2012 FTE 2 Filter 2013 FTE Change in FTE 2012 to 2013 4 3 Change Analysis 3-Year Trend Analysis Note: Annual FTE = Reporting Terms (Spring + Summer + Fall) 4 Trends by Budget Codes (Table Structure) Occupational Extension College 2013 FTE Spring 2013 Spring 2013 Spring 2013 1 Annual FTE 2 Term by Term Analysis Note: 2013 Annual FTE = (Spring 2013 + Summer 2013 + Fall 2013) 5 Trends by Budget Codes Occupational Extension College 2012 FTE 2013 FTE 2014 FTE Change in FTE Statewide 29,040.86 28,351.20 26,279.74 -2,071.45 Total Change Percentage Change from 2013 Average Change Spike Year 2013 to 2014 -2,071.45 -7% -35.71 2012 Number Colleges with Increases 13 Number Colleges with Decreases 45 6 Trends by Budget Codes Occupational Extension 2012 2013 2014 Growth % Change Pitt CC 548.88 554.68 621.68 66.99 12% Southwestern CC 435.93 458.45 495.55 37.10 8% Roanoke Chowan CC 183.47 156.04 191.47 35.43 23% Isothermal CC 267.57 209.83 237.39 27.56 13% College of the Albemarle 273.75 243.79 269.41 25.62 11% Sampson CC 305.91 323.39 344.66 21.27 7% Highest FTE Decline 2012 2013 2014 Growth % Change 1,591.20 1,579.01 1,352.98 -226.02 -14% • Central Carolina CC 865.46 835.08 666.13 -168.96 -20% • Cape Fear CC 813.09 787.86 630.07 -157.79 -20% • Blue Ridge CC 484.91 438.88 326.99 -111.9 -25% • Forsyth TCC 953.52 812.75 708.57 -104.18 -13% • Coastal Carolina CC 778.13 642.38 539.32 -103.06 -16% Highest FTE Growth • Lenoir CC 7 Trends by Budget Codes Occupational Extension 2012 2013 2014 Growth % Change Roanoke Chowan CC 183.47 156.04 191.47 35.43 23% Isothermal CC 267.57 209.83 237.39 27.56 13% Tri-County CC 151.15 128.23 144.76 16.54 13% Pitt CC 548.88 554.68 621.68 66.99 12% Pamlico CC 167.32 132.76 148.59 15.83 12% College of the Albemarle 273.75 243.79 269.41 25.62 11% Highest Percentage Drop 2012 2013 2014 Growth % Change • James Sprunt CC 239.54 185.48 127.66 -57.82 -31% • Martin CC 184.72 206.48 153.37 -53.12 -26% • Blue Ridge CC 484.91 438.88 326.99 -111.9 -25% • Western Piedmont CC 354.88 356.5 275.69 -80.81 -23% • Central Carolina CC 865.46 835.08 666.13 -168.96 -20% • Cape Fear CC 813.09 787.86 630.07 -157.79 -20% Highest Percentage Gain 8 Trends by Budget Codes Basic Skills College 2012 FTE 2013 FTE 2014 FTE Change in FTE Statewide 19,551.12 19,100.15 15,202.84 -3,897.31 Total Change 2013 to 2014 -3,897.31 Percentage Change from 2013 -20% Average Change -67.19 Spike Year 2011 Number Colleges with Increases 1 Number Colleges with Decreases 57 9 Trends by Budget Codes Basic Skills 2012 2013 2014 Growth % Change • Southwestern CC 100.11 101.52 106.14 4.62 5% • Haywood CC 56.31 46.90 45.34 -1.56 -3% • Edgecombe CC 203.37 191.11 184.60 -6.51 -3% • Tri-County CC 38.920 45.30 36.52 -8.78 -19% • Wilkes CC 264.90 250.60 241.69 -8.91 -4% • Brunswick CC 255.23 246.29 236.57 -9.72 -4% 2012 2013 2014 Growth % Change • Wake TCC 1,430.88 1,566.69 1,308.73 -257.96 -16% • Guilford TCC 1,093.40 1,106.93 849.16 -257.76 -23% • Central Piedmont CC 1,438.00 1,406.67 1,152.15 -254.52 -18% • Fayetteville TCC 1,115.22 1,063.59 815.11 -248.48 -23% • Central Carolina CC 800.42 821.10 593.93 -227.16 -28% • Forsyth TCC 651.91 663.23 536.44 -126.79 -19% FTE Growth? FTE Decline 10 Trends by Budget Codes Basic Skills 2012 2013 2014 Growth % Change • Haywood CC 56.31 46.9 45.34 -1.56 -3% • Edgecombe CC 203.37 191.11 184.6 -6.51 -3% • Wilkes CC 264.9 250.6 241.69 -8.91 -4% • Brunswick CC 255.23 246.29 236.57 -9.72 -4% • Sampson CC 342.46 345.07 322.36 -22.71 -7% • Mayland CC 328.93 322.61 299.62 -22.99 -7% 2012 2013 2014 Growth % Change • James Sprunt CC 81.83 67.89 37.1 -30.79 -45% • Rockingham CC 106.33 91.57 52.12 -39.45 -43% • Blue Ridge CC 135.99 145.96 90.34 -55.62 -38% • Johnston CC 270.08 242.48 152.66 -89.82 -37% • Wilson CC 214.44 210.73 138.49 -72.24 -34% • Cleveland CC 151.74 150.65 99.61 -51.04 -34% Low Percentage Change Highest Percentage Drop 11 Trends by Budget Codes Call to Action: Check with your college president to review your estimated budget FTE for fiscal year 2015-2016. 12 Critical Research Questions 1. What factors (internal and external) impacted the change in my FTE figures? 2. Will those factors still exist during the next year? 3. How will I benchmark by target FTE for 20162017? 4. How do I develop SMART goals to meet my targets? SMART stands for Specific, Meaningful and Measurable, Agreed to and Attainable, Reality-based, and Timely. 13 Workforce Continuing Education TRENDS BY PROGRAM AREA CODES 14 Trends by Program Area Codes FTE 2013 FTE 2014 19,556.70 19,104.97 15,209.22 -3,895.75 Health Occupations 6,029.25 5,878.26 5,213.57 -664.69 48,307 EMS 4,259.24 4,167.03 4,074.76 -92.26 143,987 Criminal Justice 2,916.60 2,938.25 2,935.66 -2.59 224,547 Fire & Rescue Services 3,134.35 2,944.43 2,782.48 -161.95 HRD 3,571.52 3,340.74 2,636.26 -704.49 Service Occupations 1,504.82 1,681.03 1,683.11 2.09 9,700 Industrial/Manufacturing 1,515.35 1,587.81 1,589.61 1.80 11,172 Construction 1,905.25 1,617.41 1,477.91 -139.50 11,562 9,587 8,898 -689 Community Service 1,302.93 1,207.96 1,127.50 -80.46 66,937 63,770 59,634 -4,136 Self-Support Occupational 1,222.61 1,197.71 1,089.32 -108.39 60,854 61,083 56,915 -4,168 Business 1,251.04 1,134.96 969.96 -165.00 23,890 21,563 17,943 -3,620 Computer Training 985.91 975.82 843.70 -132.13 20,789 18,279 14,782 -3,497 Agri/Natural Resources 602.63 571.22 489.22 -82.00 2,973 2,806 2,568 -238 BLET 338.70 379.15 362.73 -16.42 777 695 899 204 Driver Training 141.95 181.34 274.11 92.77 705 866 1,108 242 Auto Maintenance/Repair 298.71 270.48 206.41 -64.06 1,420 1,337 1,772 435 Early Childhood/Teacher 215.19 221.41 181.30 -40.12 5,719 5,880 5,029 -851 Government Regulations 143.90 153.03 161.39 8.36 6,393 6,430 6,370 -60 Motor Vehicle/DMV 123.31 122.14 126.97 4.84 12,286 12,007 12,632 625 Foreign Languages Basic Skills Change in FTE (2013 to 2014) Enrollment 2012 320,698 Enrollment 2013 351,398 Enrollment 2014 Change in Enrollment (2013 FTE 2012 College to 2014) 252,001 -99,397 46,433 43,598 -2,835 147,525 141,562 -5,963 227,620 217,644 -9,976 158,392 159,437 155,249 -4,188 135,335 134,969 107,148 -27,821 9,712 8,509 -1,203 10,720 10,700 -20 162.96 128.95 115.73 -13.21 3,272 2,688 2,287 -401 Aircraft Systems 23.16 68.36 103.43 35.06 196 419 452 33 Emergency Management 99.50 79.84 73.19 -6.65 4,535 4,162 4,251 89 Energy-Related 25.37 17.42 7.21 -10.21 448 452 182 -270 Continuing Education Total 32,514.98 31,602.41 29,543.85 -2,058.56 998,001 991,719 929,995 -61,724 15 Trends by Program Area Codes 16 Trends by Program Area Codes: Health FTE 2012 FTE 2013 FTE 2014 6,029.25 5,878.26 5,213.57 Change in FTE (2013 to 2014) -664.69 Enrollment 2012 Enrollment 2013 Enrollment 2014 48,307 46,433 43,598 Change in Enrollment (2013 to 2014) -2,835 Trends: Health is the program area that generates the highest FTE. There were 47 colleges (81%) who saw a decrease in FTE in this area. This program area has been trending downward over the last 4 years. Labor market data project this area to be the fastest growing occupational cluster. Total Colleges % Total FTEs Increase in FTE: 11 19% 47.56 Decrease in FTE: 47 81% Analysis o Greater than 20 11 -361.45 o Between 10-20 11 -164.72 o Less than 10 25 -114.89 Critical Research Questions: What factors (internal and external) impacted the change in FTE and enrollment figures? Where is the disconnect between the demand for training and the decline in FTE and enrollment? 17 Trends by Program Area Codes: Public Safety FTE 2012 FTE 2013 FTE 2014 EMS 4,259.24 4,167.03 4,074.76 Criminal Justice 2,916.60 2,938.25 Fire & Rescue 3,134.35 2,944.43 Program Area Enrollment 2012 Enrollment 2013 Enrollment 2014 -92.26 143,987 147,525 141,562 -5,963 2,935.66 -2.59 224,547 227,620 217,644 -9,976 2,782.48 -161.95 158,392 159,437 155,249 -4,188 Change in FTE (2013 to 2014) Change in Enrollment (2013 to 2014) Trends: Traditionally, Public Safety has been the program area with the largest percentage of total FTE. In 2014, the Public Safety cluster only represented 20% of the total statewide FTEs. Fire/Rescue FTE has been trending downward over the last 4 years. Conversations regarding the training needs of public safety agencies to include the instructional delivery methods is a “hot topic” conversation at the state and local level. Critical Research Questions: What factors (internal and external) impacted the change in FTE and enrollment figures? How do we maintain the rigor, relevance, and quality of training for public safety agencies. 18 Trends by Program Area Codes: Transportation FTE 2012 FTE 2013 FTE 2014 Driver Training 141.95 181.34 274.11 Auto Maint/Repair 298.71 270.48 Motor Veh/DMV 123.31 Aircraft Systems 23.16 Program Area Enrollment 2012 Enrollment 2013 Enrollment 2014 92.77 705 866 1,108 242 206.41 -64.06 1,420 1,337 1,772 435 122.14 126.97 4.84 12,286 12,007 12,632 625 68.36 103.43 35.06 196 419 452 33 Change in FTE (2013 to 2014) Change in Enrollment (2013 to 2014) Trends: The FTE for both Driver Training and Aircraft System have doubled. Motor Vehicle/DMV has relatively low FTE as compared to the enrollment. Auto Maintenance/Repair is on a downward trend. Labor market data project this area to be the fastest growing occupational cluster. Critical Research Questions: What factors (internal and external) impacted the change in FTE and enrollment figures? How do we maintain the rigor, relevance, and quality of training for public safety agencies. 19 Trends by Program Area Codes: Driver Training FTE 2012 FTE 2013 FTE 2014 Enrollment 2012 Enrollment 2013 Enrollment 2014 Caldwell CC and TI 2.84 44.27 91.39 47.13 33 113 256 143 Sampson CC 66.45 65.29 87.20 21.91 185 202 246 44 Nash CC 10.73 13.07 19.91 6.84 79 96 134 38 Isothermal CC 13.67 0 10.88 10.88 74 0 39 39 Surry CC 1.98 0 10.33 10.33 11 0 37 37 0 5.30 7.72 2.42 0 19 28 9 Carteret CC 4.07 4.46 7.62 3.16 37 69 67 -2 Cape Fear CC 5.20 4.41 5.69 1.27 76 64 78 14 Mitchell CC 0 0 3.35 3.35 0 0 12 12 Davidson County CC 0 0 2.38 2.38 0 0 11 11 College Gaston College Change in FTE (2013 to 2014) Trends: This program area has been trending upward over the last 4 years. Labor market data project this area to be the fastest growing occupational cluster. Change in Enrollment (2013 to 2014) Critical Research Questions: What factors (internal and external) impacted the change in FTE and enrollment figures? Where is the disconnect between the demand for training and the decline in FTE and enrollment? 20 Workforce Continuing Education TRENDS BY COURSE TITLES 21 Trends by Course Titles Course ID Course Title FTE 2012 FTE 2013 FTE 2014 Change in FTE (2013 to 2014) Enrollment 2012 Enrollment 2013 Enrollment 2014 (2013 to 2014) Change in Enrollment NUR3240 Nurse Aide Level I 2952.53 2855.45 2463.87 -391.57 11,863 11,399 9,782 -1,617 EMS3044 EMT Basic: Initial 1243.39 1293.48 1275.97 -17.51 4,635 4,789 4,672 -117 EMS3031 EMT Paramedic: Initial 1191.83 1057.37 1146.06 88.69 1,668 1,706 1,892 186 HRD3001 HRD Employability Skills 1259.12 1339.57 1118.30 -221.27 23,808 28,920 24,098 -4,822 CJC3952 Mandated In-Service Training 895.10 905.80 918.14 12.34 124,267 126,650 125,385 -1,265 MED3300 Medical Assisting 741.91 819.87 796.65 -23.21 1,802 2,101 1,919 -182 COS3201 Cosmetology 507.47 626.71 691.17 64.46 801 1,029 1,182 153 WLD3106 Welding 521.37 530.73 529.55 -1.18 2,453 2,808 2,842 34 MLA3022 Phlebotomy 534.90 488.10 489.12 1.03 1,985 1,805 1,763 -42 Critical Research Questions: What factors (internal and external) impacted the change in FTE and enrollment figures? Where is the disconnect between the demand for training and the decline in FTE and enrollment? 22 Trends by Course Titles - Health Course ID Course Title FTE 2012 FTE 2013 FTE 2014 Change in FTE (2013 to 2014) Enrollment 2012 Enrollment 2013 Enrollment 2014 (2013 to 2014) Change in Enrollment NUR3240 Nurse Aide Level I 2,952.53 2,855.45 2,463.87 -391.57 11,863 11,399 9,782 -1,617 MED3300 Medical Assisting 741.91 819.87 796.65 -23.21 1,802 2,101 1,919 -182 MLA3022 Phlebotomy 534.90 488.10 489.12 1.03 1,985 1,805 1,763 -42 NUR3241 Nurse Aide Level II 346.86 345.65 299.05 -46.59 1,394 1,410 1,196 -214 PHM3250 Pharmacy Technician 221.98 225.25 222.43 -2.83 1,822 1,788 1,734 -54 MED3030 Healthcare Billing and Coding 195.73 166.70 126.74 -39.95 1,662 1,469 1,134 -335 HEA3021 Massage Therapy 89.77 162.47 108.17 -54.30 233 276 145 -131 OSC3608 Health Unit Coordinator 70.24 53.38 54.44 1.07 419 316 319 3 MED3006 Medical Office Assistant 76.63 43.30 45.20 1.90 1,069 704 722 18 PSF3100 Sports Medicine Technology 2.67 41.26 32.65 -8.61 6 93 116 23 NUR3267 ECG Monitor Technician 19.47 30.20 32.49 2.28 225 307 324 17 PHM4100 Medication Aide 32.01 31.01 24.58 -6.43 911 885 694 -191 Critical Research Questions: What factors (internal and external) impacted the change in FTE and enrollment figures? Where is the disconnect between the demand for training and the decline in FTE and enrollment? 23 Trends by Course Titles – Nurse Aide I Course ID Course Title FTE 2012 FTE 2013 FTE 2014 NUR3240 Nurse Aide Level I 2,952.53 2,855.45 2463.87 Change in FTE (2013 to 2014) -391.57 Enrollment 2012 Enrollment 2013 Enrollment 2014 (2013 to 2014) 11,863 11,399 9,782 -1,617 Change in Enrollment Trends: Nurse Aide I generates the highest FTE of all course offerings. There were 47 colleges (82%) who saw a decrease in FTE in this area. This program area has been trending downward over the last 4 years. Labor market data project this area to be the fastest growing occupational cluster. Total Colleges % Total FTEs Increase in FTE: 10 18% 51.38 Decrease in FTE: 47 82% Analysis o Greater than 20 7 -192.18 o Between 10-20 10 -141.62 o Less than 10 30 -109.62 Critical Research Questions: What factors (internal and external) impacted the change in FTE and enrollment figures? Where is the disconnect between the demand for training and the decline in FTE and enrollment? 24 Workforce Continuing Education COLLEGE REPORTS 25 College Reports – Program Mix 26 College Reports – Program Mix 27 College Reports – Program Mix 28 College Reports – Program Mix 29 College Reports – Program Mix 30 College Reports – Program Mix 31 College Reports – Program Mix 32 College Reports – Program Mix 33 Workforce Continuing Education PROGRAM ANALYSIS – SAMPLE QUESTIONS 34 Sample Tools and Resources Colleague Base Reports • XCES Statistical Report providing estimated FTE data and registration numbers • XCLS Status Report providing course status information to include ‘graded’, ‘late’ or ‘canceled’ Informer Reports Custom reports that pull from ‘live’ Colleague data. Can provide cross views into Course, Student and AR dependent on access. Page 35 Program Analysis – Sample Questions Broad Category Course Offerings 1. What specific courses do you offer? 2. Do these courses reflect the training needs in your local area? 3. What courses earned the highest and lowest FTE figures? Were they appropriate for the specific course offering? 4. What courses had the highest and lowest enrollment figures? Were they appropriate for the specific course offering? 5. Did enrollment and FTE increase or decrease for the following timeframes? o Reporting Term: Term-over-Term and High/Low Reporting Terms o Reporting Year: Year-to-Year change--- 1-yr, 3-yr, and 5-yr Page 36 Program Analysis – Sample Questions Broad Category Course Offerings 6. What relational changes occurred between increases/decreases in enrollment and FTE? 7. What factors (internal and external) impact the change in enrollment and FTE figures? Will those factors still exist during the next year? 8. Did the scheduled hours/length of course/time format impact your enrollment and FTE? If yes, what action steps will you take to maintain/increase growth? If not, what action steps will you take to change the situation? 9. How did the occupational extension registration fee structure impact the following: courses offered, class location, enrollment and FTE? Page 37 Program Analysis – Sample Questions Broad Category Course Offerings 10. Can you identify broad categories to describe your mix of programs and services? 11. What are some specific descriptors within your broad categories? 12. Can you answer the “who, what, and why” questions related to your target audience and the type of courses they take? Page 38 Workforce Continuing Education TIER FUNDING 39 Tier Funding Budget FTE Continuing Education (Occupational Extension) budget FTE equals the average of the past two years (spring, summer, and fall) or the latest year, whichever is greater. Tier Designations A college’s continuing education (OE) budget FTE is categorized into four funding tiers based on the proportion of the college’s actual FTE in each tier. • Tier 1A includes FTE in a limited number of continuing education (OE) courses that train students for the exact same third-party certification as curriculum courses in Tier 1A. • Tier 1B includes FTE in short‐term, workforce continuing education courses that help prepare students for jobs in priority occupations and lead to competency‐based industry credentials. • Tier 2 includes FTE in other continuing education (OE) courses that are scheduled for 96 hours or more and are mapped to a third-party credential, certification, or industry-designed curriculum • Tier 3 includes FTE in all other continuing education (OE) courses. Page 40 Tier Funding Allocation Method for FY 2014-15 Each college receives a base continuing education (OE) allocation of $65,501, which represents funding for one instructional unit (or the equivalent of one full-time faculty member). In addition to this base, a college is allocated funding based on tier funding--- Tier Designations Dollar Value Per Budget FTE 1A $4,170.62 1B $3,691.47 2 $3,208.16 3 $2,724.95 Page 41