Data Trend Analysis - North Carolina Community College System

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Workforce
Continuing Education
FTE and Enrollment Trends
Annual Years – 2012, 2013, 2014
DRAFT REPORT
For more information, contact:
Barbara Boyce @ boyceb@nccommunitycolleges.edu or 919-807-7158
Margaret Roberton @ robertonm@nccommunitycolleges.edu or 919-807-7159
Workforce Continuing Education
FTE and Enrollment Trends
Table of Contents

Trend by Budget Codes

Trends by Program Area Codes

Trends by Course Titles

College Reports

Tier Funding
Data References
The data found in this document comes from custom statistical reports exported from the NCCCS Data Warehouse on March 12, 2015.
Enrollment and FTE figures may vary among tables due to queries used to develop the reports and/or from the rounding-off of numbers. The
purpose of this document is to provide community college staff with an overview of the types of reports used by System Office staff to analyze
FTE and enrollment trends. The information contained in this document is not official and is not intended to replace any official source.
2
Workforce Continuing Education
TRENDS BY BUDGET CODES
3
Trends by Budget Codes
(Table Structure)
1
Table Heading
Occupational Extension
College
2011
FTE
2012
FTE
2
Filter
2013
FTE
Change in FTE
2012 to 2013
4
3
Change Analysis
3-Year Trend Analysis
Note: Annual FTE = Reporting Terms (Spring + Summer + Fall)
4
Trends by Budget Codes
(Table Structure)
Occupational Extension
College
2013
FTE
Spring
2013
Spring
2013
Spring
2013
1
Annual FTE
2
Term by Term Analysis
Note: 2013 Annual FTE = (Spring 2013 + Summer 2013 + Fall 2013)
5
Trends by Budget Codes
Occupational Extension
College
2012
FTE
2013
FTE
2014
FTE
Change in FTE
Statewide
29,040.86
28,351.20
26,279.74
-2,071.45
Total Change
Percentage Change from 2013
Average Change
Spike Year
2013 to 2014
-2,071.45
-7%
-35.71
2012
Number Colleges with Increases
13
Number Colleges with Decreases
45
6
Trends by Budget Codes
Occupational Extension
2012
2013
2014
Growth
% Change
 Pitt CC
548.88
554.68
621.68
66.99
12%
 Southwestern CC
435.93
458.45
495.55
37.10
8%
 Roanoke Chowan CC
183.47
156.04
191.47
35.43
23%
 Isothermal CC
267.57
209.83
237.39
27.56
13%
 College of the Albemarle
273.75
243.79
269.41
25.62
11%
 Sampson CC
305.91
323.39
344.66
21.27
7%
Highest FTE Decline
2012
2013
2014
Growth
% Change
1,591.20
1,579.01
1,352.98
-226.02
-14%
• Central Carolina CC
865.46
835.08
666.13
-168.96
-20%
• Cape Fear CC
813.09
787.86
630.07
-157.79
-20%
• Blue Ridge CC
484.91
438.88
326.99
-111.9
-25%
• Forsyth TCC
953.52
812.75
708.57
-104.18
-13%
• Coastal Carolina CC
778.13
642.38
539.32
-103.06
-16%
Highest FTE Growth
• Lenoir CC
7
Trends by Budget Codes
Occupational Extension
2012
2013
2014
Growth
% Change
 Roanoke Chowan CC
183.47
156.04
191.47
35.43
23%
 Isothermal CC
267.57
209.83
237.39
27.56
13%
 Tri-County CC
151.15
128.23
144.76
16.54
13%
 Pitt CC
548.88
554.68
621.68
66.99
12%
 Pamlico CC
167.32
132.76
148.59
15.83
12%
 College of the Albemarle
273.75
243.79
269.41
25.62
11%
Highest Percentage Drop
2012
2013
2014
Growth
% Change
• James Sprunt CC
239.54
185.48
127.66
-57.82
-31%
• Martin CC
184.72
206.48
153.37
-53.12
-26%
• Blue Ridge CC
484.91
438.88
326.99
-111.9
-25%
• Western Piedmont CC
354.88
356.5
275.69
-80.81
-23%
• Central Carolina CC
865.46
835.08
666.13
-168.96
-20%
• Cape Fear CC
813.09
787.86
630.07
-157.79
-20%
Highest Percentage Gain
8
Trends by Budget Codes
Basic Skills
College
2012
FTE
2013
FTE
2014
FTE
Change in FTE
Statewide
19,551.12
19,100.15
15,202.84
-3,897.31
Total Change
2013 to 2014
-3,897.31
Percentage Change from 2013
-20%
Average Change
-67.19
Spike Year
2011
Number Colleges with Increases
1
Number Colleges with Decreases
57
9
Trends by Budget Codes
Basic Skills
2012
2013
2014
Growth
% Change
• Southwestern CC
100.11
101.52
106.14
4.62
5%
• Haywood CC
56.31
46.90
45.34
-1.56
-3%
• Edgecombe CC
203.37
191.11
184.60
-6.51
-3%
• Tri-County CC
38.920
45.30
36.52
-8.78
-19%
• Wilkes CC
264.90
250.60
241.69
-8.91
-4%
• Brunswick CC
255.23
246.29
236.57
-9.72
-4%
2012
2013
2014
Growth
% Change
• Wake TCC
1,430.88
1,566.69
1,308.73
-257.96
-16%
• Guilford TCC
1,093.40
1,106.93
849.16
-257.76
-23%
• Central Piedmont CC
1,438.00
1,406.67
1,152.15
-254.52
-18%
• Fayetteville TCC
1,115.22
1,063.59
815.11
-248.48
-23%
• Central Carolina CC
800.42
821.10
593.93
-227.16
-28%
• Forsyth TCC
651.91
663.23
536.44
-126.79
-19%
FTE Growth?
FTE Decline
10
Trends by Budget Codes
Basic Skills
2012
2013
2014
Growth
% Change
• Haywood CC
56.31
46.9
45.34
-1.56
-3%
• Edgecombe CC
203.37
191.11
184.6
-6.51
-3%
• Wilkes CC
264.9
250.6
241.69
-8.91
-4%
• Brunswick CC
255.23
246.29
236.57
-9.72
-4%
• Sampson CC
342.46
345.07
322.36
-22.71
-7%
• Mayland CC
328.93
322.61
299.62
-22.99
-7%
2012
2013
2014
Growth
% Change
• James Sprunt CC
81.83
67.89
37.1
-30.79
-45%
• Rockingham CC
106.33
91.57
52.12
-39.45
-43%
• Blue Ridge CC
135.99
145.96
90.34
-55.62
-38%
• Johnston CC
270.08
242.48
152.66
-89.82
-37%
• Wilson CC
214.44
210.73
138.49
-72.24
-34%
• Cleveland CC
151.74
150.65
99.61
-51.04
-34%
Low Percentage Change
Highest Percentage Drop
11
Trends by Budget Codes
Call to Action:
Check with your college president to review your estimated budget FTE for fiscal year 2015-2016.
12
Critical Research Questions
1. What factors (internal and external) impacted the
change in my FTE figures?
2. Will those factors still exist during the next year?
3. How will I benchmark by target FTE for 20162017?
4. How do I develop SMART goals to meet my
targets?
SMART stands for
Specific, Meaningful and Measurable, Agreed to and Attainable, Reality-based, and Timely.
13
Workforce Continuing Education
TRENDS BY PROGRAM AREA CODES
14
Trends by Program Area Codes
FTE
2013
FTE
2014
19,556.70
19,104.97
15,209.22
-3,895.75
Health Occupations
6,029.25
5,878.26
5,213.57
-664.69
48,307
EMS
4,259.24
4,167.03
4,074.76
-92.26
143,987
Criminal Justice
2,916.60
2,938.25
2,935.66
-2.59
224,547
Fire & Rescue Services
3,134.35
2,944.43
2,782.48
-161.95
HRD
3,571.52
3,340.74
2,636.26
-704.49
Service Occupations
1,504.82
1,681.03
1,683.11
2.09
9,700
Industrial/Manufacturing
1,515.35
1,587.81
1,589.61
1.80
11,172
Construction
1,905.25
1,617.41
1,477.91
-139.50
11,562
9,587
8,898
-689
Community Service
1,302.93
1,207.96
1,127.50
-80.46
66,937
63,770
59,634
-4,136
Self-Support Occupational
1,222.61
1,197.71
1,089.32
-108.39
60,854
61,083
56,915
-4,168
Business
1,251.04
1,134.96
969.96
-165.00
23,890
21,563
17,943
-3,620
Computer Training
985.91
975.82
843.70
-132.13
20,789
18,279
14,782
-3,497
Agri/Natural Resources
602.63
571.22
489.22
-82.00
2,973
2,806
2,568
-238
BLET
338.70
379.15
362.73
-16.42
777
695
899
204
Driver Training
141.95
181.34
274.11
92.77
705
866
1,108
242
Auto Maintenance/Repair
298.71
270.48
206.41
-64.06
1,420
1,337
1,772
435
Early Childhood/Teacher
215.19
221.41
181.30
-40.12
5,719
5,880
5,029
-851
Government Regulations
143.90
153.03
161.39
8.36
6,393
6,430
6,370
-60
Motor Vehicle/DMV
123.31
122.14
126.97
4.84
12,286
12,007
12,632
625
Foreign Languages
Basic Skills
Change in FTE
(2013 to 2014)
Enrollment
2012
320,698
Enrollment
2013
351,398
Enrollment
2014
Change in
Enrollment (2013
FTE
2012
College
to 2014)
252,001
-99,397
46,433
43,598
-2,835
147,525
141,562
-5,963
227,620
217,644
-9,976
158,392
159,437
155,249
-4,188
135,335
134,969
107,148
-27,821
9,712
8,509
-1,203
10,720
10,700
-20
162.96
128.95
115.73
-13.21
3,272
2,688
2,287
-401
Aircraft Systems
23.16
68.36
103.43
35.06
196
419
452
33
Emergency Management
99.50
79.84
73.19
-6.65
4,535
4,162
4,251
89
Energy-Related
25.37
17.42
7.21
-10.21
448
452
182
-270
Continuing Education Total
32,514.98
31,602.41
29,543.85
-2,058.56
998,001
991,719
929,995
-61,724
15
Trends by Program Area Codes
16
Trends by Program Area Codes: Health
FTE
2012
FTE
2013
FTE
2014
6,029.25
5,878.26
5,213.57
Change in FTE
(2013 to 2014)
-664.69
Enrollment
2012
Enrollment
2013
Enrollment
2014
48,307
46,433
43,598
Change in Enrollment
(2013 to 2014)
-2,835
Trends:
 Health is the program area that
generates the highest FTE.
 There were 47 colleges (81%) who
saw a decrease in FTE in this area.
 This program area has been trending
downward over the last 4 years.
 Labor market data project this area to
be the fastest growing occupational
cluster.
Total
Colleges
%
Total
FTEs
 Increase in FTE:
11
19%
47.56
 Decrease in FTE:
47
81%
Analysis
o Greater than 20
11
-361.45
o Between 10-20
11
-164.72
o Less than 10
25
-114.89
Critical Research Questions:

What factors (internal and external) impacted the change in FTE and
enrollment figures?

Where is the disconnect between the demand for training and the decline
in FTE and enrollment?
17
Trends by Program Area Codes: Public Safety
FTE
2012
FTE
2013
FTE
2014
EMS
4,259.24
4,167.03
4,074.76
Criminal Justice
2,916.60
2,938.25
Fire & Rescue
3,134.35
2,944.43
Program Area
Enrollment
2012
Enrollment
2013
Enrollment
2014
-92.26
143,987
147,525
141,562
-5,963
2,935.66
-2.59
224,547
227,620
217,644
-9,976
2,782.48
-161.95
158,392
159,437
155,249
-4,188
Change in FTE
(2013 to 2014)
Change in Enrollment
(2013 to 2014)
Trends:
 Traditionally, Public Safety has been the program area with the largest percentage of total FTE.
 In 2014, the Public Safety cluster only represented 20% of the total statewide FTEs.
 Fire/Rescue FTE has been trending downward over the last 4 years.
 Conversations regarding the training needs of public safety agencies to include the instructional
delivery methods is a “hot topic” conversation at the state and local level.
Critical Research Questions:

What factors (internal and external) impacted the change
in FTE and enrollment figures?

How do we maintain the rigor, relevance, and quality of
training for public safety agencies.
18
Trends by Program Area Codes: Transportation
FTE
2012
FTE
2013
FTE
2014
Driver Training
141.95
181.34
274.11
Auto Maint/Repair
298.71
270.48
Motor Veh/DMV
123.31
Aircraft Systems
23.16
Program Area
Enrollment
2012
Enrollment
2013
Enrollment
2014
92.77
705
866
1,108
242
206.41
-64.06
1,420
1,337
1,772
435
122.14
126.97
4.84
12,286
12,007
12,632
625
68.36
103.43
35.06
196
419
452
33
Change in FTE
(2013 to 2014)
Change in Enrollment
(2013 to 2014)
Trends:
 The FTE for both Driver Training and Aircraft System have doubled.
 Motor Vehicle/DMV has relatively low FTE as compared to the enrollment.
 Auto Maintenance/Repair is on a downward trend.
 Labor market data project this area to be the fastest growing occupational cluster.
Critical Research Questions:

What factors (internal and external) impacted the change in FTE and enrollment figures?

How do we maintain the rigor, relevance, and quality of training for public safety agencies.
19
Trends by Program Area Codes: Driver Training
FTE
2012
FTE
2013
FTE
2014
Enrollment
2012
Enrollment
2013
Enrollment
2014
Caldwell CC and TI
2.84
44.27
91.39
47.13
33
113
256
143
Sampson CC
66.45
65.29
87.20
21.91
185
202
246
44
Nash CC
10.73
13.07
19.91
6.84
79
96
134
38
Isothermal CC
13.67
0
10.88
10.88
74
0
39
39
Surry CC
1.98
0
10.33
10.33
11
0
37
37
0
5.30
7.72
2.42
0
19
28
9
Carteret CC
4.07
4.46
7.62
3.16
37
69
67
-2
Cape Fear CC
5.20
4.41
5.69
1.27
76
64
78
14
Mitchell CC
0
0
3.35
3.35
0
0
12
12
Davidson County CC
0
0
2.38
2.38
0
0
11
11
College
Gaston College
Change in FTE
(2013 to 2014)
Trends:
 This program area has been trending upward
over the last 4 years.
 Labor market data project this area to be the
fastest growing occupational cluster.
Change in Enrollment
(2013 to 2014)
Critical Research Questions:

What factors (internal and
external) impacted the change
in FTE and enrollment figures?

Where is the disconnect
between the demand for
training and the decline in FTE
and enrollment?
20
Workforce Continuing Education
TRENDS BY COURSE TITLES
21
Trends by Course Titles
Course ID
Course Title
FTE
2012
FTE
2013
FTE
2014
Change in FTE
(2013 to 2014)
Enrollment
2012
Enrollment
2013
Enrollment
2014
(2013 to 2014)
Change in
Enrollment
NUR3240
Nurse Aide Level I
2952.53
2855.45
2463.87
-391.57
11,863
11,399
9,782
-1,617
EMS3044
EMT Basic: Initial
1243.39
1293.48
1275.97
-17.51
4,635
4,789
4,672
-117
EMS3031
EMT Paramedic: Initial
1191.83
1057.37
1146.06
88.69
1,668
1,706
1,892
186
HRD3001
HRD Employability Skills
1259.12
1339.57
1118.30
-221.27
23,808
28,920
24,098
-4,822
CJC3952
Mandated In-Service Training
895.10
905.80
918.14
12.34
124,267
126,650
125,385
-1,265
MED3300
Medical Assisting
741.91
819.87
796.65
-23.21
1,802
2,101
1,919
-182
COS3201
Cosmetology
507.47
626.71
691.17
64.46
801
1,029
1,182
153
WLD3106
Welding
521.37
530.73
529.55
-1.18
2,453
2,808
2,842
34
MLA3022
Phlebotomy
534.90
488.10
489.12
1.03
1,985
1,805
1,763
-42
Critical Research Questions:

What factors (internal and external) impacted the change in FTE and enrollment figures?

Where is the disconnect between the demand for training and the decline in FTE and
enrollment?
22
Trends by Course Titles - Health
Course ID
Course Title
FTE
2012
FTE
2013
FTE
2014
Change in FTE
(2013 to 2014)
Enrollment
2012
Enrollment
2013
Enrollment
2014
(2013 to 2014)
Change in
Enrollment
NUR3240
Nurse Aide Level I
2,952.53
2,855.45
2,463.87
-391.57
11,863
11,399
9,782
-1,617
MED3300
Medical Assisting
741.91
819.87
796.65
-23.21
1,802
2,101
1,919
-182
MLA3022
Phlebotomy
534.90
488.10
489.12
1.03
1,985
1,805
1,763
-42
NUR3241
Nurse Aide Level II
346.86
345.65
299.05
-46.59
1,394
1,410
1,196
-214
PHM3250
Pharmacy Technician
221.98
225.25
222.43
-2.83
1,822
1,788
1,734
-54
MED3030
Healthcare Billing and Coding
195.73
166.70
126.74
-39.95
1,662
1,469
1,134
-335
HEA3021
Massage Therapy
89.77
162.47
108.17
-54.30
233
276
145
-131
OSC3608
Health Unit Coordinator
70.24
53.38
54.44
1.07
419
316
319
3
MED3006
Medical Office Assistant
76.63
43.30
45.20
1.90
1,069
704
722
18
PSF3100
Sports Medicine Technology
2.67
41.26
32.65
-8.61
6
93
116
23
NUR3267
ECG Monitor Technician
19.47
30.20
32.49
2.28
225
307
324
17
PHM4100
Medication Aide
32.01
31.01
24.58
-6.43
911
885
694
-191
Critical Research Questions:

What factors (internal and external) impacted the change in FTE and enrollment figures?

Where is the disconnect between the demand for training and the decline in FTE and enrollment?
23
Trends by Course Titles – Nurse Aide I
Course ID
Course Title
FTE
2012
FTE
2013
FTE
2014
NUR3240
Nurse Aide Level I
2,952.53
2,855.45
2463.87
Change in FTE
(2013 to 2014)
-391.57
Enrollment
2012
Enrollment
2013
Enrollment
2014
(2013 to 2014)
11,863
11,399
9,782
-1,617
Change in
Enrollment
Trends:
 Nurse Aide I generates the highest FTE
of all course offerings.
 There were 47 colleges (82%) who
saw a decrease in FTE in this area.
 This program area has been trending
downward over the last 4 years.
 Labor market data project this area to
be the fastest growing occupational
cluster.
Total
Colleges
%
Total
FTEs
 Increase in FTE:
10
18%
51.38
 Decrease in FTE:
47
82%
Analysis
o Greater than 20
7
-192.18
o Between 10-20
10
-141.62
o Less than 10
30
-109.62
Critical Research Questions:

What factors (internal and external) impacted the change in FTE and enrollment figures?

Where is the disconnect between the demand for training and the decline in FTE and enrollment?
24
Workforce Continuing Education
COLLEGE REPORTS
25
College Reports – Program Mix
26
College Reports – Program Mix
27
College Reports – Program Mix
28
College Reports – Program Mix
29
College Reports – Program Mix
30
College Reports – Program Mix
31
College Reports – Program Mix
32
College Reports – Program Mix
33
Workforce Continuing Education
PROGRAM ANALYSIS – SAMPLE QUESTIONS
34
Sample Tools and Resources
Colleague Base Reports
•
XCES
Statistical Report providing estimated FTE
data and registration numbers
•
XCLS
Status Report providing course status
information to include ‘graded’, ‘late’ or
‘canceled’
Informer Reports
Custom reports that pull from ‘live’ Colleague data. Can
provide cross views into Course, Student and AR
dependent on access.
Page 35
Program Analysis – Sample Questions
Broad Category
Course Offerings
1. What specific courses do you offer?
2. Do these courses reflect the training needs in your local area?
3. What courses earned the highest and lowest FTE figures? Were they
appropriate for the specific course offering?
4. What courses had the highest and lowest enrollment figures? Were they
appropriate for the specific course offering?
5. Did enrollment and FTE increase or decrease for the following timeframes?
o Reporting Term: Term-over-Term and High/Low Reporting Terms
o Reporting Year: Year-to-Year change--- 1-yr, 3-yr, and 5-yr
Page 36
Program Analysis – Sample Questions
Broad Category
Course Offerings
6. What relational changes occurred between increases/decreases in
enrollment and FTE?
7. What factors (internal and external) impact the change in enrollment and
FTE figures? Will those factors still exist during the next year?
8. Did the scheduled hours/length of course/time format impact your
enrollment and FTE? If yes, what action steps will you take to
maintain/increase growth? If not, what action steps will you take to change
the situation?
9. How did the occupational extension registration fee structure impact
the following: courses offered, class location, enrollment and FTE?
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Program Analysis – Sample Questions
Broad Category
Course Offerings
10.
Can you identify broad categories to describe your mix of programs and
services?
11.
What are some specific descriptors within your broad categories?
12.
Can you answer the “who, what, and why” questions related to your
target audience and the type of courses they take?
Page 38
Workforce Continuing Education
TIER FUNDING
39
Tier Funding
Budget FTE
Continuing Education (Occupational Extension) budget FTE equals the average of the past two years (spring,
summer, and fall) or the latest year, whichever is greater.
Tier Designations
A college’s continuing education (OE) budget FTE is categorized into four
funding tiers based on the proportion of the college’s actual FTE in each
tier.
•
Tier 1A includes FTE in a limited number of continuing education
(OE) courses that train students for the exact same third-party
certification as curriculum courses in Tier 1A.
•
Tier 1B includes FTE in short‐term, workforce continuing
education courses that help prepare students for jobs in priority
occupations and lead to competency‐based industry credentials.
•
Tier 2 includes FTE in other continuing education (OE) courses
that are scheduled for 96 hours or more and are mapped to a
third-party credential, certification, or industry-designed
curriculum
•
Tier 3 includes FTE in all other continuing education (OE) courses.
Page 40
Tier Funding
Allocation Method for FY 2014-15
Each college receives a base continuing education (OE) allocation of $65,501, which represents funding
for one instructional unit (or the equivalent of one full-time faculty member). In addition to this base,
a college is allocated funding based on tier funding---
Tier
Designations
Dollar Value
Per Budget FTE
1A
$4,170.62
1B
$3,691.47
2
$3,208.16
3
$2,724.95
Page 41
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