The Tablet/ E-reader Industry AEM 4160: Strategic Pricing Jaime De La Hoz Sacasa Colombe Bommelaer Christy Kung Alex Nelson Table of Contents Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendations Why this industry? Growth rate potentially reaching maturity New and exciting Disruptive technology Introduction Industry Structure Evolving Concentration Various pricing strategies Pricing Strategies Recommendation Industry Structure Difference between E-readers & Tablets E-Readers Tablets • Allow users to easily read e-books without a computer • Serves broader purpose & functionality Lightweight E-Reader functionality in addition to browsing the Web, watching movies, sharing files, taking photos, and using social media. Affordable Introduction Industry Structure Operate via touchscreen Pricing Strategies Recommendation The Long Tail Advantage • Larger selection than at a brick & mortar stores that mainly carry the “best-sellers” • More niche content available to the readers • Accessible with Internet connection Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Target Market Age Distribution Tablets Age Distribution Tablets 30% 26% 25% 20% 19% 17% 14% 15% 10% 4% 5% 0% 13-17 Introduction 18-24 Industry Structure 25-34 35-54 Pricing Strategies 55+ Recommendation Tablet ownership over time % of American adults ages 18+ who own a tablet 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% % of American adults ages 18+ who own a tablet May 2010 Introduction May Dec. Nov 2011 2011 2012 Industry Structure Sept Jan 2013 2014 Pricing Strategies Recommendation Distribution • Retail Stores: Apple and Samsung Stores Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation • Official distributors (Best Buy, Walmart…) Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Online Stores: Apple, Amazon, Ebay Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Official Site Wal-Mart Best-Buy Ebay Apple Ipad Air 2 (wifi) $499 $489 $499 $448 Amazon Kindle Fire HDX7 16GB $179 -- $179.99 $99 Amazon Kindle Fire HDX8.9 16GB $379 -- $379.99 $284.99 Samsung Tab 4 -10.1 16GB (wifi) $299 $321 $299 $234.69 Google Nexus 9 32GB - LTE $599 $792 $479.99 $479.99 Apple “Price Umbrella” 1 High Barriers To Entry • Capital intensive industry • Existing companies have: • Cost advantages • Consumer brand loyalties • Established advertising budgets • Locked in consumers Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation High Degree of Rivalry • Large size of competing companies. • Aggressive competition through innovation and pricing. • Exits costs are low. Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Major Players Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation HHI/ CR4 Market Share 2012 Top 5 Tablets CR4 85.08 HHI 2953.7184 Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Tablet Tracker, February 2, 2015 Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation HHI/ CR4 Market Share 2013 Top 5 Tablets CR4 62 HHI 1537.66 Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Tablet Tracker, February 2, 2015 Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation HHI/ CR4 Market Share Q4 2014 Top 5 Tablets CR4 51.4 HHI 1044.19 Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Tablet Tracker, February 2, 2015 Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation HHI/ CR4 Market Share Q1 2015 Top 5 Tablets CR4 55 HHI 1135.19 Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Tablet Tracker, February 2, 2015 Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Apple’s iPad • iPad launched in April 2010 • First mover advantage • Disruptive technology • Created a new market Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Samsung’s Galaxy Tab • Launched in September 2010 • 2nd major player of the industry • Major supplier of Apple products Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Amazon’s Kindle Fire • Launched in November 2011 • Tablet version of Amazon’s e-reader • Runs on a custom version of Google’s Android OS Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Google’s Nexus • Nexus line: smartphones, tablets and digital media players • First tablet (Nexus 7) launched in 2012 • Google manages the design, development, and marketing • Devices manufactured by various companies Manufactured by HTC Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Sourcing – Google Model Google Nexus 7 (First Generation) Google Nexus 7 Google Nexus 2010 Google Nexus 9 Year 2012 (Discontinued in 2013) 2013 2012 2014 Manufacturer ASUS ASUS Samsung HTC Android Version 4.1 Jelly Bean 4.3 Jelly Bean 4.2 Jelly Bean 5.0 Lollipop Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Sourcing – Apple Part Manufacturer Display Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd Display Driver IC Chip Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd Flash Memory SK Hynics Inc Touch Controller Broadcom Microchips Fairchild Semiconductor International Inc. Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Sourcing – Apple • Example of other parts: Display Samsung/LG Flash Memory Toshiba DRAM Chips Elpida Memory/Micron Group/SK Hynics A Series Chips (A5X or A8) Qualcomm/Samsung/ Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Patent Lawsuits • Over the last 3 years, Apple & Samsung have filed over 40 patent lawsuits against each other. • Apple has also filed lawsuits against Nokia & HTC. • However, Apple & Samsung are still business partners: Samsung supplies key components for most Apple devices. Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Major Tablet Producer Margins Model iPad Air Google Nexus 7 Samsung Galaxy Tab 3 Kindle Fire HDX Year 2013 (November) 2013 (July) 2013 (July) 2013 (October) Manufacturer Apple ASUS/Google Samsung Amazon Retail Price $499 $249 $300 $229 Hard Costs $274 $159.25 $214.57 $175 Gross Margin 45.09% 36.04% 28.48% 23.58% Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Pricing Strategies Pricing Strategies Goldilocks Effect Versioning Intertemporal Pricing Tying Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Goldilocks Effect NAND Flash $9.20 DRAM $6.30 Display $60.00 Touchscreen $20.00 Processor $13.00 Camera $11.00 Wireless Section (Module) $ - User Interface & Sensors $15.00 WLAN/BT/FM $5.00 Retail Pricing (As of November 2012) $299.00 Power Management $7.50 Total BOM Cost $188.00 $13.50 Manufacturing Cost $10.00 Battery Mechanical/ElectroMechanical/Other BOM + Manufacturing $198.00 Box Contents $6.00 Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies $26.00 Recommendation Goldilocks Effect NAND Flash $9.20 DRAM $10.50 Display $90.00 Touchscreen $43.00 Processor $18.00 Camera $9.00 Wireless Section (Module) $ - User Interface & Sensors $10.00 WLAN/BT/FM $5.00 Retail Pricing (As of November 2012) $499.00 Power Management $7.25 Total BOM Cost $269.00 $19.00 Manufacturing Cost $5.00 Battery Mechanical/ElectroMechanical/Other BOM + Manufacturing $274.00 Box Contents $6.00 Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies $42.00 Recommendation Goldilocks Effect NAND Flash $16.80 DRAM $7.60 Display $57.00 Touchscreen $40.00 Processor $14.20 Camera $4.10 Wireless Section (Module) $ - User Interface & Sensors $10.00 WLAN/BT/FM $5.35 Retail Pricing (As of November 2012) $399 Power Management $5.85 Total BOM Cost $236.95 $22.75 Manufacturing Cost $8.15 Battery Mechanical/ElectroMechanical/Other BOM + Manufacturing $245.10 Box Contents $5.50 Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies $47.80 Recommendation Goldilocks Effect Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Versioning What is it? Versioning is the creation of and management of multiple releases of a product, all of which have the same general function but are improved, upgraded, or customized . Software (SV) Free or inexpensive Introduction Hardware (HV) Great margins Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation HV examples: Apple Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Capacity Space Increases Margins iPad Third Generation Components/Hardware Elements Retail Pricing (As of November 2012) Total BOM Cost Manufacturing Cost BOM + Manufacturing Major Cost Drivers NAND Flash DRAM Display Touchscreen Processor Camera Wireless Section (Module) User Interface & Sensors WLAN/BT/FM Power Management Battery Mechanical/Electro-Mechanical/Other Box Contents Introduction 16GB $499 $306.05 $10.00 $316.05 WiFi Only 32GB $599 $322.85 $10.00 $332.85 64GB $699 $356.45 $10.00 $366.45 $16.80 $13.90 $87.00 $40.00 $23.00 $12.35 $$10.00 $5.00 $10.00 $32.00 $50.50 $5.50 $33.60 $13.90 $87.00 $40.00 $23.00 $12.35 $$10.00 $5.00 $10.00 $32.00 $50.50 $5.50 $67.20 $13.90 $87.00 $40.00 $23.00 $12.35 $$10.00 $5.00 $10.00 $32.00 $50.50 $5.50 Industry Structure Pricing Strategies 16GB $629 $347.55 $10.00 $357.55 WiFi + 4G 32GB $729 $364.35 $10.00 $374.35 64GB $829 $397.95 $10.00 $407.95 $16.80 $13.90 $87.00 $40.00 $23.00 $12.35 $41.50 $10.00 $5.00 $10.00 $32.00 $50.50 $5.50 $33.60 $13.90 $87.00 $40.00 $23.00 $12.35 $41.50 $10.00 $5.00 $10.00 $32.00 $50.50 $5.50 $67.20 $13.90 $87.00 $40.00 $23.00 $12.35 $41.50 $10.00 $5.00 $10.00 $32.00 $50.50 $5.50 Recommendation Storage Capacity Margins – iPad 3 Components/Hardware Elements Retail Pricing (As of November 2012) Total BOM Cost Manufacturing Cost BOM + Manufacturing Major Cost Drivers NAND Flash Introduction Industry Structure 16GB $499 $306.05 $10.00 $316.05 WiFi Only 32GB $599 $322.85 $10.00 $332.85 64GB $699 $356.45 $10.00 $366.45 $16.80 $33.60 $67.20 Pricing Strategies Recommendation 4G Capability Margins – iPad 3 iPad Third Generation Components/Hardware Elements Retail Pricing (As of November 2012) Total BOM Cost Manufacturing Cost BOM + Manufacturing Major Cost Drivers NAND Flash Wireless Section (Module) Introduction Industry Structure WiFi Only 64GB $699 $356.45 $10.00 $366.45 WiFi + 4G 64GB $829 $397.95 $10.00 $407.95 $67.20 $- $67.20 $41.50 Pricing Strategies Recommendation Samsung Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Versioning • This industry is unique because it is moving so fast. Apple has switched from the iPad mini 2 to 3 in a very short time (less than a year). • With this pricing strategy, companies can maximize benefits as they target a higher price for a new products, but at the same time reduce the price of the “older” versions to attract more customers Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Intertemporal Pricing • The product is first launched at a high price. • As the weeks/months go by, we observe a decrease in price • Allows for 2nd degree discrimination where consumers are discriminated based on their WTP. • Consumers with higher WTP (i.e., early adopters) will buy the product as soon as it is launched. • Consumers with lower WTP will buy the product once its price is lower. Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Apple iPad Prices $510 $490 $470 Ipad 2 $450 Ipad 3 $430 Ipad 4 $410 Ipad Air $390 Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Kindle Fire HDX 7 Price History ($) Price History ($) 300 250 200 150 100 Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies 24-Mar-15 24-Feb-15 24-Jan-15 24-Dec-14 24-Nov-14 24-Oct-14 24-Sep-14 24-Aug-14 24-Jul-14 24-Jun-14 24-Apr-14 0 24-May-… 50 Recommendation Kindle Fire Model Fire HDX 8.9 Fire HDX Fire HD 7 Initial Price $429 $239 $199 2nd Price $379 $199 $169 3rd Price $159 Final Price $139 Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Tying • To buy one product/service, a consumer must buy another product/service. • The purchase of a tablet or e-reader is tied to the purchase of apps and other downloadable content. • A tablet’s utility increases with the number of apps it contains [Metcalfe’s Law] Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Tying - Examples • Amazon Kindle + e-books • The Kindle is sold at cost or at a low price in order to make it affordable to many consumers. • However, you must purchase e-books for the Kindle to be useful. • Apple iPad + apps Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Tying Arrangements and Antitrust Laws • Tying arrangements have been the subject of extensive litigation. • Violates antitrust laws if: • Distinct products exist • Firm has sufficient monopoly power • Forecloses volume of trade • Example: United States v. Apple Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Recommendations Investment Perspective • The industry is becoming obsolete, need to redefine Shakeout • Consolidation of the industry in which businesses are eliminated through intense competition Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Google Trends Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation It´s starts looking like: “By 2018, tablets will be obsolete, I don’t think there’ll be a reason to have a tablet anymore ” Heins, Blackberry CEO Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Pricing Strategy • They have to redefine the industry, otherwise, if they continue selling just tablets and compete in price: Commodity • Be more than just a tablet • Apple “does not sell tablets”, they sell iPads Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation The Future? Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation MacBook Pro tablet Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Questions? Presentation Additional Information Target Market Tablet Ownership Over Time Distribution Tablet Prices by Distributor Apple “Price Umbrella” HHI/CR4 Major Player Products Sourcing Apple Sourcing Google Patent Lawsuits Tablet Producer Margins Goldilocks Effect Capacity Margin Increases 4G Margin Increases iPad Intertemporal Pricing Kindle Fire Intertemporal Pricing Samsung Intertemporal Pricing Tying Tying Arrangements and Antitrust Laws Investment Recommendation Google Trends iSuppli iPad Breakdown iSuppli Kindle Fire Breakdown iSuppli Nexus 7 Breakdown iSuppli Samsung Tab Breakdown iPad Prices Today (Refurbished) Adoption Rate by Generation Moore’s Law Not Applicable Consumption Spreads Faster Today iSuppli iPad Breakdown iSuppli Nexus/Kindle Breakdown iSuppli Samsung Breakdown iPad Prices Today (Refurbished) Model Initial Price Refurbished Price Percent Change iPad $499 $109.95 - 78% iPad 2 $499 $159.99 -68% iPad 3 $499 $199.99 -60% iPad 4 $499 $239.99 -52% iPad Mini $399 $175.99 -56% iPad Mini 2 $499 $249.99 -50% iPad Air $499 $299.99 -67% 6 iPad Prices Today (Refurbished) Introduction Industry Structure Pricing Strategies Recommendation Moore’s Law not in effect? Consumption Spreading Faster 6