Space Based ADS-B
Introducing 100% surveillance
across the Mumbai FIR
“Benefits Analysis”
BOB ASIO DELHI
1 September 2015
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© COPYRIGHT 2014 AIREON LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Agenda
• Background and context - increasing air traffic
• ICAO response
• AIREON System
• Concept of operation and performance update
• Stakeholder benefits and pricing
• Safety – ANSP accountability for collision risk modeling
• Data Service Agreement and implementation process
• Mumbai FIR – airspace management today
• Mumbai FIR – benefit of surveillance
• Summary and next steps
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Transforming The Way You See The Sky
Transponder
1090es (mhz)
All Versions
GPS
Geo
SBAS
ABAS
GBAS
Secure IP
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Global Traffic Flows
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Global Traffic Trends
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More Aircraft
+ 150 %
+ 200 %
+ 170 %
+ 90 %
•
•
•
Basic computation using Boeing forecast for global fleet size.
Base line 2012 data.
ICAO historic data – traffic double s every 15 years
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Global ICAO Planning
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Surveillance a primary enabler to improved operational
efficiency and as mitigation for ANSP airspace risk
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But - over 70% of the world is WITHOUT surveillance
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Aireon System
Investors, Innovators and Customers
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DGCA 50 Bangkok – AAI summary
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Investors, Customers and Innovators
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Transforming The Way You See The Sky
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Iridium NEXT Satellite Configuration
Aireon Hosted Payload
2 Solar Array Wings
Main Mission
Antenna L-band
Deployed “Wingspan” 9.4m
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Significant Progress in Production
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System Performance
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Satellite
Processing: 68ms
Space Transport: 200ms
Downlink: 11ms
Designed Latency from
Receiver to ATM Automation
Platform ≤ 1.5 seconds
Ground Service: 150ms
APD: 205ms
Telco: 600ms
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It’s Just ADS-B!
ATS Surveillance
Requirements (EUROCAE)
Surveillance Data-link
Requirements
Aircraft Transmitter Classes
Supported
Variable Per Region
Accepts all 1090ES ADS-B
(DO-260 Version 0, 1, 2)
(DO-260 Versions 0, 1, 2)
A1 or Higher
A1 or Higher
(125 Watt minimum)
(125 Watt minimum, with a top-mount antenna
(TCAS)
ASTERIX CAT021, CAT023, CAT025
and FAA CAT033 and CAT023
ASTERIX CAT021, CAT023, CAT025
and FAA CAT033 and CAT023
Capacity
Minimum 250 within a high density
service volume
≥10,000 simultaneous aircraft
globally
System Coverage
Enroute Service Volume (200 NM)
Continuous Global Coverage
≥ 99.9%
≥ 99.9%
≤ 1.5s to the ATM Automation
Platform
≤ 1.5s to the ATM Automation
Platform
Simulation and testing shows that
targets will be delivered at an
UI of ≤ 8s* at 95%
Data Format to ANSP
Availability
Latency
≤ 8s at 95%
Update Interval
* ASIM Simulation & Component Testing
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ATM Performance
Space Based ADS-B CONOPS
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Space-Based ADS-B Integration Into ATM Systems
• Sole Source Surveillance
• Provide a signal, suitable for surveillance, to an ATM system where it
currently does not exist to enhance safety, efficiency and operational
performance
• Augmented surveillance
• Augment existing ADS-B or radar surveillance to fill gaps, improve
performance, lower infrastructure costs, improve safety, share
surveillance data and provide seamless contingency
• Contingency surveillance
• Bypass the ATM automation and directly to display for continuity of
service in the event of automation failure, communications failure, power
failures – for example.
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Operational Use Scenarios
Scenarios
Procedural
Airspace
Capability
Communication
Navigation
Surveillance
Separation
Base Case
SATCOM or HF only
RNP-10
Procedural
Long 10 min (80 nm)
Lat: 60nm
With Aireon
SATCOM or HF only
RNP-10
SB-ADSB Surveillance
Better than
Long 10 min (80 nm)
Lat: 60nm
Example Airspace
ADS-C
Airspace
Base Case
CPDLC with HF backup
RNP-4
ADS-C
30 nm
With Aireon
CPDLC with HF backup
RNP-4
SB-ADSB Surveillance
<15 nm
Example Airspace
Procedural
Airspace
with VHF
DCPC Voice
RNP-10
Procedural
10 min (80 nm)
With Aireon
DCPC Voice
RNAV 5 (Europe)
RNAV 2 (U.S.)
SB-ADSB Surveillance
5 nm
VHF without surveillance. Common around small island States (Asia, Caribbean, Latin America) and
large remote landmass (ASECNA)
Base Case
DCPC Voice
RNAV 5 (Europe)
RNAV 2 (U.S.)
Radar, WAM, or Ground
Based ADS-B
5 nm
With Aireon
DCPC Voice
RNAV 5 (Europe)
RNAV 2 (U.S.)
SB-ADSB Surveillance
5 nm
Example Airspace
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North Atlantic / Pacific oceanic or Some remote areas in Africa / ASPAC
Base Case
Example Airspace
Currently
Surveilled
Airspace
Polar Region / Some remote areas in Africa / ASPAC
Terrestrial Europe, North America, Brazil, Australia etc.
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Single Source Oceanic / Remote
Aireon ADS-B Signal
CAT 21
Single Link
ADS-C
Position
Report
Automation Platform
Controller Display
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Voice
Increasing cross boundary safety
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Increasing cross boundary safety
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Allowing for infrastructure rationalization
Aireon ADS-B Signal
CAT 21
Single Link
Ground ADS-B Signal
CAT 21
Multiple Links
Radar
Multiple Links
Tracker / Fusing / Automation Platform
Controller Display
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Rationalization multiple layers of existing surveillance
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5
Rationalization multiple layers of existing surveillance
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3
Allowing for infrastructure rationalization
Aireon ADS-B Signal
CAT 21
Single Link
MLAT
Tracker / Fusing / Automation Platform
Controller Display
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Increasing cross boundary safety
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A Controller’s Perspective: Contingency
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Independent Contingency Surveillance
Aireon ADS-B Signal
CAT 21
Single Link
Ground ADS-B Signal
CAT 21
Multiple Links
Radar
Multiple Links
Tracker / Fusing / Automation Platform
Controller Display
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Broad support among major ANSPs
• Launch Customers:
• Nav Canada, ENAV, NAVIAIR, Irish Aviation Authority
• UK-NATS
• MOA in place with:
• FAA, Nav Portugal
• Singapore, India
• ASECNA, South Africa
• Blue Med Fab
• New Zealand, Curacao
• Australia, Iceland
• Advance Data Service discussion
• A number of ANSP
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Significant support among major ANSPs
DSA
MOA to DSA
MOA Development
(Pre)-engaged
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Stakeholder benefits and pricing
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An Innovative Business Model
• By ANSP’s for ANSPs
• Hosted payload reduces costs
• No ground based infrastructure for the ANSP
• No significant project / lead time to establish full airspace coverage
• It’s just ADS-B, use existing systems
• Global coverage in 2018
• No service costs to the ANSP until operational use
• No major upfront investment requirements for ANSP’s
• Pay per ADS-B equipped use
• Airline benefits from surveillance will significantly outweigh costs
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Phased data services agreement for early customers
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
Phase 4
MOA
System Delivery
& Test
Integrated Service
Acceptance
Operational
Support & Engineering Services (At the request of customer, T&M)
Service Delivery Point
(T&M)
Services Acceptance
(T&M)
Free of costs
Costs for SDP
Time & Material
Customer
Requested Time &
Material Only
Paid Service Fee
Value &
Requirements
Install Service
Delivery Point
Test &
Validation
Operational Use
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D
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Operational Data Services
D
The Key Aireon Benefits
Airlines
ANSP
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Society
Decreased legacy surveillance system replacement or maintenance costs
Avoided legacy surveillance system expansion investment
Avoided signal duplication and associated telecom costs
Decreased infrastructure and signal costs through cross border contingency
Improved data for flight billing and airspace route design purposes
Reduced complexity through harmonization of operating environment
Reduced likelihood of loss of separation events
Reduction of gross navigation errors
Early detection of emergency transponder codes
Improved search and rescue services
Improved airspace integration of UAS
Enhanced military applications and situational awareness
Minimized impact from operational and weather disruptions
Reduced legacy surveillance (radar/WAM/ground ADS-B) outage disruptions
Less restricted altitudes
Less restricted air speeds
Less restricted routing
Reduced metering delay / improved flow
Reduced excess contingency fuel loading
More predictable airline operations planning
Reduced frequency of pilot position reports
Avoided avionics investment
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Reduced Airline
Infrastructure
Costs
Impacts
Improved
Passenger
Comfort
- Society
Reduced
Environmental
Impact (CO2)
- Airline
Enhanced
Safety & Security
- ANSP
Reduced ANSP
Costs
Impacts and Benefits
Reduced Fuel
and Travel Time
(ADOC/PVT)
Benefits
Beneficiary
Separation standards
SAFETY - Collision Risk Model
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Two Separate Approaches to Regulatory Approval
• To use Space Based ADS-B for 5 NM tactical separation:
• Aireon designed the system to meet RTCA and EUROCAE standards for
surveillance
• The ANSP and Regulator will need to do a comparative analysis to ensure a
safety case is approved
• To use Space Based ADS-B for Reduced Oceanic Separation
• The oceanic system will meet RTCA and EUROCAE standards for
surveillance
• Due to constraints with oceanic COM performance a new collision risk
model has been developed for the NAT supporting 15 NM or 10 NM
separation using existing COM (HF/CPDLC)
• NAT Regulators and ANSP’s have developed a process for the safe case
analysis
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The Principle of Reducing Oceanic Separation
• Reducing the time it detects an aircraft (PRI) increases the
available time for conflict resolution within the same target level of
safety
Position Reporting Interval (PRI)
Communications
Surveillance
(PRI)
Conflict Resolution Delay (CRD)
Conflict Resolution Delay (CRD)
Available At Risk Period
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Ongoing work to obtain regulatory approvals
• Work is currently under way by the ICAO Separation and Airspace Safety
Panel (SASP)
• Collision Risk Modelling will be globally applicable (i.e. include intersecting
routes)
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MUMBAI FIR - ASIO
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CAPA report
• India is the ninth largest aviation market in the world by annual seat capacity
and CAPA projects it will be the third largest aviation market in the world by
2025. Today, approximately 80 Indian airports handle scheduled services,
operated by nine domestic airlines, with a combined fleet of some 400
aircraft.
• Advances in ATM procedures and technology are enabling greater growth.
Much of this is down to the AAI, which has a dual role, as both the air
navigation services provider and as the operator of 125 airports across
India
• Over the last decade scheduled aircraft movements have more than doubled
from 718,000 to more than 1.6 million in FY2015, supplemented by a further
281,000 general aviation movements. In addition to arriving and departing
movements, Indian airspace handles approximately 400,000 annual overflight movements.
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Route structure
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Great effort has been made to drive improvements
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Example - Southern Arabian Sea – Indian Ocean UPR
ZONE
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MUMBAI FIR ANALYSIS
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Decreased legacy surveillance system replacement or maintenance costs
Avoided legacy surveillance system expansion investment
Avoided signal duplication and associated telecom costs
Decreased infrastructure and signal costs through cross border contingency
Improved data for flight billing and airspace route design purposes
Reduced complexity through harmonization of operating environment
Reduced likelihood of loss of separation events
Reduction of gross navigation errors
Early detection of emergency transponder codes
Improved search and rescue services
Improved airspace integration of UAS
Enhanced military applications and situational awareness
Minimized impact from operational and weather disruptions
Reduced legacy surveillance (radar/WAM/ground ADS-B) outage disruptions
Less restricted altitudes
Less restricted air speeds
Less restricted routing
Reduced metering delay / improved flow
Reduced excess contingency fuel loading
More predictable airline operations planning
Reduced frequency of pilot position reports
Avoided avionics investment
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Reduced Airline
Infrastructure
Costs
Impacts
Improved
Passenger
Comfort
- Society
Reduced
Environmental
Impact (CO2)
- Airline
Enhanced
Safety & Security
- ANSP
Reduced ANSP
Costs
Impacts and Benefits
Reduced Fuel
and Travel Time
(ADOC/PVT)
Benefits
Beneficiary
Decreased legacy surveillance system replacement or maintenance costs
Avoided legacy surveillance system expansion investment
Avoided signal duplication and associated telecom costs
Decreased infrastructure and signal costs through cross border contingency
Improved data for flight billing and airspace route design purposes
Reduced complexity through harmonization of operating environment
Reduced likelihood of loss of separation events
Reduction of gross navigation errors
Early detection of emergency transponder codes
Improved search and rescue services
Improved airspace integration of UAS
Enhanced military applications and situational awareness
Minimized impact from operational and weather disruptions
Reduced legacy surveillance (radar/WAM/ground ADS-B) outage disruptions
Less restricted altitudes
Less restricted air speeds
Less restricted routing
Reduced metering delay / improved flow
Reduced excess contingency fuel loading
More predictable airline operations planning
Reduced frequency of pilot position reports
Avoided avionics investment
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Reduced Airline
Infrastructure
Costs
Impacts
Improved
Passenger
Comfort
- Society
Reduced
Environmental
Impact (CO2)
- Airline
Enhanced
Safety & Security
- ANSP
Reduced ANSP
Costs
Impacts and Benefits
Reduced Fuel
and Travel Time
(ADOC/PVT)
Benefits
Beneficiary
General Methodology
•
RAMS+ Model used to simulate operations in Mumbai FIR (VABF) Oceanic
Airspace
• VABF Oceanic and Domestic Airspace were split using a line approximately
200NM from shore
• Airway and Navaid Data collected from Airports Authority of India (AAI)
webpage
•
City pair routes that pass through VABF’s oceanic airspace identified
• Schedule data for selected city pairs collected for May 2015-April 2016
•
One month of data selected as preliminary
input to the model
• February 2016
30
25
VABF
Domestic
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•
Fuel Burn Modeling
• BADA 3.8 Performance Tables
•
Traffic Growth Modeling
• 2020 and 2025 based on 5% per year
expected growth rate
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VABF
Oceanic
10
5
0
-5
-10
50
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55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Key Assumptions
• Routes flown
• First notion was to use Origin->Destination Great Circle Paths
• Airway across VABF Ocean airspace assigned to minimize total distance flown
• Simulated Route: Origin->Airway Start->Airway->Airway End->Destination
• Altitude assigned
• Westbound flights randomly assigned FL300 and FL390
• Eastbound flights randomly assigned FL340 and FL380
• Controller Separation (See Test Scenarios Next Slide)
• Current potential least restrictive separation: 30/30 for RNP4 aircraft
• With Space-based ADS-B: Reduced separation to 15 nmi and assumed all flights
properly equipped
• Metering applied to aircraft joining airways
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Test Scenarios
• Base Case
• 30NM longitudinal and lateral separation
• RVSM 1,000 feet vertical separation
• Time-based metering applied to all aircraft joining airway
• 225 seconds or ~30NM
• Metering applied regardless of aircraft altitude
• Test Case 1 (Space-based ADS-B reduced separation)
• 15NM longitudinal and lateral separation
• RVSM 1,000 feet vertical separation
• Time-based metering applied to all aircraft joining airway
• 112.5 seconds or ~15NM
• Metering applied regardless of aircraft altitude
• Test Case 2 (Space-based ADS-B reduced separation and new routes)
•
•
•
•
New routes created between existing Northwest-Southeast routes
15NM longitudinal and lateral separation
RVSM 1,000 feet vertical separation
Time-based metering applied to all aircraft joining airway
• 112.5 seconds or ~15NM
• Metering applied regardless of aircraft altitude
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Route Structure
Route Width
~ 55 nmi
VABF Ocean
Original Routes
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Route Width
~ 27.5 nmi
VABF Ocean
Original and New
Routes
Simulation Screenshot
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Preliminary Results (2015 Annual Totals)
*Extrapolated from 1 month of data (16,594 ops)
Scenario
Annual
Annual Delay
Airborne Delay
Savings (min)
(min)
Annual Fuel
Burn (kg)
Annual Fuel
Annual
Burn Savings
Savings (USD)
(kg)
Base Case
225,896
-
Space-Based
ADS-B
109,415
116,481
4,612,003,564 11,372,164
$20,984,511
Space-Based
ADS-B with
New Routes
78,801
147,095
4,609,123,809 14,251,920
$26,391,717
4,623,375,728
-
-
*Using 2015 FAA values for fuel ($3.02 a gallon), average non-fuel Aircraft
Direct Operating Costs (ADOC), and Passenger Value of Time (PVT)
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Preliminary Results (2015 Per Flight Average)
*1 Month (16,594 ops), 1.19 hours in sector
Scenario
Mean
Mean
Delay
Airborne
Savings
Delay (min)
(min)
Mean Fuel
Burn
(kg)
Mean Fuel
Savings
(kg)
Mean
Savings*
(USD)
Mean
Savings Per
flight Hour*
(USD)
Base Case
1.08
-
22,137
-
Space-Based
ADS-B
0.52
0.56
22,082
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$100
$84
Space-Based
ADS-B with
New Routes
0.38
0.70
22,068
68
$126
$106
-
*Using 2015 FAA values for fuel ($3.02 a gallon), average non-fuel Aircraft
Direct Operating Costs (ADOC), and Passenger Value of Time (PVT)
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Annual Benefit (2015, 2020, 2025)
*Based on 5% annual growth rate
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Annual Benefit Per Flight-Hour (2015, 2020, 2025)
*Based on 5% annual growth rate, 1 month
simulated data
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Next Steps
•
•
•
•
Feedback on assumptions and benefit analysis?
Validation of benefits
Engage with neighboring ANSP to maximize benefit
Move to Data Service Agreements to enable data flow for validation of
benefit
• AIREON building ANPS “pipeline” for Data Service Agreement and supply of
data early on in the validation process
• No payment until benefit period – 2017/2018 following full test and
acceptance by the ANSP including Regulatory approvals
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