Crude Oil Overview & Changing Trends IEPR Commissioner Workshop − Trends in Crude Oil Market and Transportation July 20, 2015 Gordon Schremp Energy Assessments Division California Energy Commission Gordon.schremp@energy.ca.gov Workshop Purpose • Follow-up to IEPR workshop in Berkeley on June 25, 2014 • Significant changes in crude oil markets and prices • Progress of West Coast crude-by-rail projects slowed by opposition • Safety concerns of transporting hazardous materials have spurred additional state, federal, and international actions 7/20/2015 2 Topics • California Overview – Refineries, oil production, other sources & infrastructure • United States Overview – Rising oil production & decreasing imports & increasing transportation of crude oil by rail tank car • Global Overview – Rising excess supply & price decline • Crude-by-Rail (CBR) – Increasing transportation of crude oil by rail tank car – Status of CBR projects – West Coast • Agency Roles & Responsibilities 7/20/2015 3 California Overview 7/20/2015 4 California Refineries • 3 primary refinery locations • 12 refineries produce transportation fuels that meet California standards • 8 smaller refineries produce asphalt and other petroleum products • California refineries provide majority of transportation fuel to neighboring states • Process over 1.6 million barrels per day of crude oil 7/20/2015 5 California Refineries • Refineries are a primary hub of logistical activity • Raw materials imported & finished products shipped • Crude oil receipts during 2014 received by • • • • Marine vessels (foreign) - 787.1 TBD Marine vessels (Alaska) – 190.5 TBD California source via pipelines – 664.8 TBD Rail/truck – 15.7 TBD • Process units operate continuously at or near maximum capacity, except during periods of planned maintenance or unplanned outages Valero Benicia refinery 7/20/2015 TBD = Thousands of Barrels Per Day 6 California Crude Oil Production Source By Geographic Region 450 423.86 Production has declined by 49.7 percent between 1985 and 2012. 400 Production has increased by 5.03 percent between 2012 and 2014. Millions of Barrels 350 300 250 223.77 200 Federal OCS State Waters State Onshore 150 100 50 Sources: CEC analysis of CA Division of Oil, Gas & Geothermal Resources data 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0 7/20/2015 7 California Crude Oil Production Onshore - Producing Wells & Output Barrels of Crude Oil Per Well Per Day 16 52,000 50,000 Increased number of producing wells has had marginal impact on average level of output per well per day. 14 48,000 12 15.66 Barrels per Day per Well 46,000 10 49,295 Producing Wells - March 2015 2.85 percent increase since July 2012 44,000 10.58 Barrels per Day per Well - March 2015 1.32 percent rise since July 2012 42,000 8 6 CA Onshore 4 40,000 Number of Producing Wells 41,823 Producing Wells 38,000 2 Sources: CEC analysis of CA Division of Oil, Gas & Geothermal Resources data 7/20/2015 Jan-15 Jul-14 Jan-14 Jul-13 Jan-13 Jul-12 Jan-12 Jul-11 Jan-11 Jul-10 Jan-10 Jul-09 Jan-09 Jul-08 Jan-08 Jul-07 Jan-07 Jul-06 Jan-06 Jul-05 Jan-05 Jul-04 Jan-04 Jul-03 36,000 Jan-03 0 8 Producing Crude Oil Wells 18 Crude Oil Pipeline Projects No crude oil pipelines into California…one project being examined. 7/20/2015 9 Crude Oil Sources for CA Refineries 800 700 600 Millions of Barrels Foreign 328.2 million barrels 500 Alaska 67.4 million barrels 400 51.6 Percent 300 200 California & Other Domestic Lower 48 Sources 10.6 Percent 240.1 million barrels 37.8 Percent 100 Source: California Energy Commission. 0 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Declining CA & Alaska sources replaced by additional foreign imports. 7/20/2015 10 Pipeline Access Important • Northern California refineries processed 754.8 thousand barrels per day of crude oil during 2014 • 261.6 TBD pipeline shipments • 35 percent of crude oil received • State Fire Marshal’s Office • Intrastate pipeline oversight • Increased crude-by-rail likely to back out marine receipts of similar quality • Rail capability increases flexibility to enhance supply options & reduces risk of crude oil receipt curtailment 7/20/2015 11 7/20/2015 12 Marine Terminals Receive Imports • Marine facilities are located in sheltered harbors with adequate draught to accommodate typical sizes of petroleum product tankers and crude oil vessels • State Lands Commission has oversight of marine terminal building standards – also track loading and discharges • Most refiners operate a proprietary dock • Absent growth in crudeby-rail imports, volume of imported oil and utilization of existing marine oil terminals could increase over the near-term 7/20/2015 13 United States Overview 7/20/2015 14 U.S. Tight Oil Production – Jan. ’07-June ‘15 2,500,000 Ghawar (Saudi Arabia) – Peak 5.0 MM BPD in 2005, now 4.5 MM BPD Samotlor (Russia) – Peak 3.0 MM BPD in 1980, now 0.84 MM BPD Burgan (Kuwait) – Peak 2.4 MM BPD in 1972, now 1.7 MM BPD Cantarell (Mexico) – Peak 2.1 MM BPD in 2003, now 0.41 MM BPD Rumaila (Iraq) – Peak 1.6 MM BPD in 1980, now 1.3 MM BPD Safaniya (Saudi Arabia) – Peak 1.5 MM BPD in 1990s, now 1.2 MM BPD Kirkuk (Iraq) – Peak 1.2 MM BPD in 1980, now 0.23 MM BPD Daqing (China) – Peak 1.1 MM BPD in 1997, now 0.75 MM BPD 1,642,342 1,223,350 1,500,000 3 U.S. fields each exceed 1 MM barrels per day Combined 4.904 MM BPD 1,000,000 Bakken Permian 500,000 Eagle Ford Source: EIA Drilling Productivity Report 7/20/2015 May-15 Jan-15 Sep-14 May-14 Jan-14 Sep-13 May-13 Jan-13 Sep-12 May-12 Jan-12 Sep-11 May-11 Jan-11 Sep-10 May-10 Jan-10 Sep-09 May-09 Jan-09 Sep-08 May-08 Jan-08 Sep-07 May-07 0 Jan-07 Barrels Per Day 2,000,000 2,038,656 15 U.S. Crude Oil Production – Jan. ‘81-Apr. ‘15 12,000 9.701 million barrels per day Highest since April of 1971 Chart peak of 9.173 million barrels per day - Feb. 1986 All-time peak of 10.044 million barrels per day - Nov. 1970 Thousands of Barrels Per Day 10,000 8,000 US Crude Oil Production Alaska North Dakota Texas California + OCS Rest of US 6,000 3.711 million barrels per day Highest since March 2015 4,000 1.169 million barrels per day 2,000 7/20/2015 Dec-2014 Jan-2014 Feb-2013 Apr-2011 Mar-2012 Jun-2009 May-2010 Jul-2008 Aug-2007 Oct-2005 Sep-2006 Dec-2003 Nov-2004 Jan-2003 Feb-2002 Mar-2001 Apr-2000 May-1999 Jul-1997 Jun-1998 Sep-1995 Aug-1996 Oct-1994 Nov-1993 Jan-1992 Dec-1992 Feb-1991 Apr-1989 Mar-1990 Jun-1987 May-1988 Jul-1986 Aug-1985 Oct-1983 Sep-1984 Dec-1981 Nov-1982 0 Jan-1981 Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) 16 Change in Crude Oil Production January 2010 vs. April 2015 3,000 2,613 U.S. crude oil production has increased from 5.403 million barrels per day in January 2010 to 9.701 million barrels per day during April 2015 Thousands of Barrels Per Day 2,500 2,000 California output nearly unchanged after more than five years. 1,500 933 1,000 886 500 Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) 0 Texas North Dakota Rest of U.S. California -4 Alaska -130 -500 7/20/2015 17 U.S. Imports of Crude Oil Decline 4,000 3,696 3,500 Millions of Barrels 3,000 2,500 2,678 2,000 2014 oil imports 2.79 million BPD lower than 2005 peak of 10.13 million BPD. 1,500 1,000 500 Source: Energy Information Administration. 7/20/2015 2014 2010 2006 2002 1998 1994 1990 1986 1982 1978 1974 1970 1966 1962 1958 1954 1950 1946 1942 1938 1934 1930 1926 1922 1918 1914 1910 0 18 Global Overview 7/20/2015 19 Global Demand Growth Outlook Europe 180 North America 480 FSU 150 120 -100 -230 140 -150 160 210 130 -20 Middle East 210 150 80 Latin America Asia 560 550 770 160 40 70 Africa Thous. Bbls/Day 2013 vs. 2012 2014 vs. 2013 2015 vs. 2014 Source: International Energy Agency (IEA) – Oil Market Report – June 11, 2015 2015 outlook 93.97 MB/D vs. 92.57 MB/D in 2014 (up 1.51%). 7/20/2015 20 Global Crude Oil Production Change 2014 vs. 2008 6,000 4,860 5,000 U.S. increase more than 3 times greater than the other top 20 countries combined – 4,860 vs. 1,522 thousands of barrels per day. Thousands of Barrels Per Day 4,000 3,000 2,000 Sources: 2015 BP Statistical Review and Energy Commission Analysis 1,000 1,085 842 887 857 686 432 337 533 447 248 216 7/20/2015 Indonesia Qatar Libya Brazil Angola Nigeria Algeria -444 -189 Kazakhstan -572 Iraq Norway Kuwait Mexico -381 United Kingdom -502 Canada Venezuela China US Iran -782 United Arab Emirates -2,000 Russian Federation -1,000 Saudi Arabia 0 -153 -1,322 -705 21 Global Crude Supply Imbalance Excess global crude oil supplies increase into 2015. Millions of Barrels Per Day 1.85 1.47 95 94 2.0 1.39 Source: California Energy Commission analysis of IEA data. 1.5 1.01 1.0 93 0.5 0.48 92 -0.09 91 0.0 -0.29 90 -0.5 89 Supply -0.80 -1.0 Demand 88 -1.08 Supply Imbalance 1Q 2015 4Q 2014 3Q 2014 2Q 2014 1Q 2014 4Q 2013 3Q 2013 2Q 2013 -1.5 1Q 2013 87 7/20/2015 Millions of Barrels Per Day 96 22 Steep Price Decline • Crude oil prices peaked during June of 2014 – – – – June 19, 2014 – Brent - $115.06 per barrel June 20, 2014 – Alaska North Slope (ANS) - $114.51 per barrel June 20, 2014 – WTI - $107.95 per barrel June 24, 2014 – San Joaquin Valley (SJV) - $99.65 per barrel • Prices dropped at least 50 percent within 7 months – – – – Brent down 59.5 percent to $46.59 on 1/13/15 ANS down 60.6 percent to $45.10 on 1/28/15 WTI down 59.2 percent to $44.08 on 1/28/15 SJV down 68.7 percent to $31.14 on 1/21/15 • Prices have since rebounded a bit before easing back down 7/20/2015 23 Daily Brent Crude Oil Prices (2011 – 7/17/15) 140 Crude oil prices were remarkably stable between 2011 and June of 2014 Dollars Per Barrel 120 100 80 60 40 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 46.7 percent lower than same time last year. 2015 Source: Energy Information Administration & OPIS. 7/20/2015 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan 0 24 Crude Oil Prices – West Coast, Brent & WTI 120 Following a late spring rebound, prices now softening from continued global supply surplus. 110 100 Sources: ANS - Alaska Department of Revenue, SJV & Brent - OPIS, WTI - EIA. Dollars Per Barrel 90 80 Alaska North Slope Brent North Sea West Texas Intermediate San Joaquin Valley 70 60 50 40 7/20/2015 7/16/2015 7/2/2015 6/18/2015 6/4/2015 5/21/2015 5/7/2015 4/23/2015 4/9/2015 3/26/2015 3/12/2015 2/26/2015 2/12/2015 1/29/2015 1/15/2015 1/1/2015 12/18/2014 12/4/2014 11/20/2014 11/6/2014 10/23/2014 10/9/2014 9/25/2014 9/11/2014 8/28/2014 8/14/2014 7/31/2014 7/17/2014 30 25 Crude Oil – Export Restrictions • Domestically‐produced crude oil exports to foreign destinations allowed under specific "license exceptions" identified under federal statute primary exceptions include: • Alaska crude oil shipped on the Trans‐Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) and exported via a Jones Act vessel directly from Valdez Harbor • California heavy crude oil production with API gravity of 20.0 degrees or lower, limit of no more than 25,000 barrels per day • First export license for California heavy crude oil was granted on December 9, 1991 – no heavy crude oil exports for several years • Exports of domestic crude oil to Canada for processing by Canadian refineries • Exports in connection with refining or exchange of Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude oil • Companies can also apply to the federal Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) for an export license that basically requires Presidential approval Recent export licenses for “processed” condensate approved. 7/20/2015 26 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 Oil Rig Deployment Declines with Price Number of rigs deployed specifically for U.S. oil drilling 60.3 percent lower than the peak level on October 10, 2014 Y-T-D down 56.9 percent 1,601 Gradual impact on oil production likely to continue manifesting itself over the next several months Biggest drops in Permian (-319), Williston (-125), and Eagle Ford (-125) basins 800 Source: Baker Hughes data – through July 17, 2015. 600 638 400 200 7/17/1987 3/18/1988 11/18/1988 7/21/1989 3/23/1990 11/23/1990 7/26/1991 3/27/1992 11/27/1992 7/30/1993 3/31/1994 12/02/1994 8/04/1995 4/05/1996 12/06/1996 8/08/1997 4/10/1998 12/11/1998 8/13/1999 4/08/2000 12/15/2000 8/17/2001 4/19/2002 12/20/2002 8/22/2003 4/23/2004 12/23/2004 8/26/2005 4/28/2006 12/29/2006 8/31/2007 5/02/2008 1/02/2009 9/04/2009 5/07/2010 1/07/2011 9/09/2011 5/11/2012 1/11/2013 9/13/2013 5/16/2014 1/16/2015 0 7/20/2015 27 Crude-by-Rail (CBR) Source: KinderMorgan rail yard in Richmond – Chris Jordan-Bloch, Earthjustice 7/20/2015 28 U.S. Crude-by-Rail Transportation 1,200 14% Thousands of Barrels Per Day 9.05 percent of U.S. production as of April 2015. Excludes Canadian import movements. 10% Crude-by-rail volumes include oil from U.S. production and Canadian rail imports. 8% 800 600 National CBR Movements 6% Percentage of U.S. Production 400 4% Source: Energy Information Administration 200 7/20/2015 0% Mar-2015 Jan-2015 Nov-2014 Sep-2014 Jul-2014 May-2014 Mar-2014 Jan-2014 Nov-2013 Sep-2013 Jul-2013 May-2013 Mar-2013 Jan-2013 Nov-2012 Sep-2012 Jul-2012 May-2012 Mar-2012 Jan-2012 Nov-2011 Sep-2011 Jul-2011 May-2011 Mar-2011 Jan-2011 Nov-2010 Sep-2010 Jul-2010 May-2010 Mar-2010 Jan-2010 0 2% 29 Percentage of U.S. Production 12% 1,000 California Crude-by-Rail Imports • 2013 CBR imports – 6.3 MM Barrels • 2014 CBR imports – 5.7 MM Barrels • Average of 15,720 barrels/day • Approximately 8,700 rail tank cars • Average of 660 barrels/rail tank car 2014 Crude-By-Rail Imports (January - December) California Energy Commission 2014 2014 Country or State of Origin Total Barrels Percentage for Railcars California Totals Canada 1,520,288 26.50% Colorado 147,488 2.57% New Mexico 1,159,712 20.21% North Dakota 1,191,758 20.77% Utah 933,632 16.27% Wyoming 694,101 12.10% Other States 90,699 1.58% Subtotals 5,737,678 100.00% Northern California Canada Colorado New Mexico North Dakota Utah Wyoming Other States Subtotals 0 74,937 15,268 1,191,758 0 0 2,891 1,284,854 0.00% 5.83% 1.19% 92.75% 0.00% 0.00% 0.23% 100.00% Bakersfield & Southern California Canada Colorado New Mexico North Dakota Utah Wyoming Other States Subtotals 1,520,288 72,552 1,144,444 0 933,632 694,101 87,807 4,452,824 34.14% 1.63% 25.70% 0.00% 20.97% 15.59% 1.97% 100.00% Other States include Illinois, Louisiana, Missouri, Nebraska, Arkansas. 7/20/2015 30 Northern California – CBR Activity • One location currently receiving CBR deliveries • Kinder Morgan – Richmond Rail Facility • Facility is permitted to receive an average maximum of 16,000 barrels per day of crude oil via rail tank car • Crude oil transferred to trucks • Kinder Morgan facility can receive crude oil unit trains • SAV Patriot in McClellan had permit rescinded and operations ceased in early November 2014 • Current permit capacity of 58,000 barrels per day for state, excluding Plains All American in Taft 7/20/2015 Source: Patriot Rail 31 Rail Routes Into and Within California CBR Routing Information - California Energy Commission does not track routes of CBR deliveries – only source states/provinces, destinations within California, and volumes Counties transited by trains carrying more than 1 million gallons of Bakken crude oil are reported by Class 1 railroads to OES Crude oil from Canada, North Dakota and Wyoming will likely traverse the state from north to south Crude oil from Colorado, New Mexico and Texas will likely traverse the state from east to west 7/20/2015 32 California Crude Oil Imports Via Rail Tank Cars 1,400,000 1,200,000 CBR numbers for Y-T-D 2015 down 46.2 percent compared 2014 (761,514 barrels versus 1,415,605 barrels). Canada Colorado Barrels Per Month 1,000,000 New Mexico North Dakota Utah 800,000 Source: California Energy Commission Wyoming Other Lower 48 States 600,000 400,000 200,000 7/20/2015 March-15 February-15 January-15 December-14 November-14 October-14 September-14 August-14 July-14 June-14 May-14 April-14 March-14 February-14 January-14 December-13 November-13 October-13 September-13 August-13 July-13 June-13 May-13 April-13 March-13 February-13 January-13 0 33 Crude Discounts vs. California CBR Imports $45 60 Eagle Ford/New Mexico Utah $40 North Dakota Sweet 50 Colorado Average $35 California CBR Imports Canada Sweet Canada Heavy $30 40 $25 30 $20 $15 20 Thousands of Barrels Per Day Crude Oil Price Discount Versus Brent North Dakota Sour $10 10 $5 Sources: Plains All American crude oil price bulletins & CEC crude-by-rail data from Class 1 railroads. $0 7/20/2015 Mar-15 Feb-15 Jan-15 Dec-14 Nov-14 Oct-14 Sep-14 Aug-14 Jul-14 Jun-14 May-14 Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14 Dec-13 Nov-13 Oct-13 Sep-13 Aug-13 Jul-13 0 34 California CBR Imports Expected to Grow • One CBR project operational • Plains All American – near Bakersfield • One CBR project received permits • Alon USA - Bakersfield • Two CBR projects seeking permits • Valero & Phillips 66 • One CBR project modified • WesPac in Pittsburg • CBR imports during 2015 • Could approach 4 percent if Plains All American facility operates at capacity • Could grow up to 22 19 percent by 2016 2017 assuming: • Permits issued, customers signed up, financing approved, construction completed & facilities operated at capacity 7/20/2015 35 Crude-by-Rail Projects – Bakersfield Alon Crude Flexibility Project - Approved Alon – Bakersfield Refinery 2 unit trains per day 150,000 BPD offloading capacity Will be able to receive heavy crude oil Oil tankage connected to main crude oil trunk lines – transfer to other refineries Kern County Board of Supervisors approved permits for the project on September 9, 2014 Contract awarded for initial engineering work – May 2015 Construction will take 9 months, could be complete by 2016 assuming customers sign long-term agreements and financing is approved 7/20/2015 Plains All American – Bakersfield Crude Terminal – Operational Up to 65,000 BPD Connection to additional crude oil line via new six-mile pipeline Initial delivery during November 2014 Poor rail economics have limited deliveries Litigation underway regarding permit Source: KernGoldenEmpire.com 36 Crude-by-Rail Projects – Northern California • Valero – Benicia Crude Oil By Rail Project – Permit Review • • • • • Benicia refinery Up to 70,000 BPD Construction will take 6 months Could be operational by 2016 Recirculated Draft Environmental Impact Report (RDEIR) will be released August 31, 2015 • 45-day comment period • Lead agency – City of Benicia • http://www.ci.benicia.ca.us/inde x.asp?Type=B_BASIC&SEC={FDE9 A332-542E-44C1-BBD0A94C288675FD} 7/20/2015 37 Crude-by-Rail Projects – Northern California WesPac Energy Project – Pittsburg – Revised Permit Review Will no longer include rail access Includes marine terminal for receipt and loading – average of 192,000 BPD Connection to KLM pipeline – access to Valero, Shell, Tesoro & Phillips 66 refineries Connection to idle San Pablo Bay Pipeline – access to Shell, Tesoro & Phillips 66 refineries Could be operational by 2017 Notice of Preparation (NOP) of a Second Recirculated Draft EIR is now available for a 30-day public review – comments due July 31, 2015 Lead agency – City of Pittsburg http://www.ci.pittsburg.ca.us/index.aspx?page=700 7/20/2015 38 WesPac Project – Refinery Connections Project will no longer include rail access. 7/20/2015 39 Crude-by-Rail Projects – Central California Phillips 66 – Santa Maria Refinery – Permit Review Average of 37,142 BPD Construction 9 to 10 months to complete Could be operational by 2016 Planning and Building Department is currently working toward releasing a Final Environmental Impact Report Lead agency – County of San Luis Obispo http://www.slocounty.ca.gov/planning/environ mental/EnvironmentalNotices/Phillips_66_Com pany_Rail_Spur_Extension_Project.htm Source: Phillips 66 Draft EIR – October 2014 7/20/2015 40 Crude-by-Rail Projects – Planned Two Projects not included in CBR projection by Energy Commission Targa – Port of Stockton – Planned Up to 65,000 BPD Receive rail, load barges Questar Project - Planned East of Desert Hot Springs Nearly 2 unit trains per day 120,000 BPD offloading capacity Connection to Los Angeles basin crude oil pipeline network Company is still performing an engineering analysis Could be operational by late 2017 7/20/2015 Source: Questar Pipeline customer meeting, March 2014 41 Washington CBR Projects 7/20/2015 42 Active CBR Facilities – Pacific Northwest Tesoro – Anacortes Refinery – Operational Up to 50,000 BPD Operational September 2012 BP – Cherry Point Refinery – Operational Up to 60,000 BPD Operational December 2013 Global Partners – Clatskanie, OR – Operational Originally up to 28,600 BPD 8/19/14 - permit revised to 120,000 BPD Source: Skagit Valley Herald Phillips 66 – Ferndale Refinery – Operational Up to 20,000 BPD, mixed freight cars Permits received for expansion to 40,000 BPD in 2014 U.S. Oil and Refining – Tacoma Refinery – Operational Up to 6,900 BPD Seeking permits to expand capacity to 48,000 BPD CBR off-loading capacity up to 280,900 BPD 7/20/2015 43 CBR Projects – Pacific Northwest Tesoro – Savages, Port of Vancouver Project – Permit Review Rail receipts of unit trains & loading of marine vessels Initial capacity up to 120,000 BPD Tesoro will have off-take rights to 60,000 BPD Expansion capability of up to 360,000 BPD Revised draft EIS to be released late November 2015 Lead agency - Energy Facility Site Evaluation Council http://www.efsec.wa.gov/Tesoro-Savage.shtml 7/20/2015 44 CBR Projects – Pacific Northwest Shell – Anacortes Refinery Project – Permit Review Rail receipts of unit trains Capacity up to 62,000 BPD Draft EIS to be developed after Shell appeal to obtain a Mitigated Determination of Non-Significance was denied in May 2015 Lead agency – Skagit County Planning & Development Services Possible initial start-up during late 2016 http://www.skagitcounty.net/D epartments/PlanningAndPermit /shellpermit.htm 7/20/2015 45 Agency Roles & Responsibilities Source: California Energy Commission 7/20/2015 46 Agency Roles & Responsibilities Source: California Energy Commission 7/20/2015 47 Additional Q & A 7/20/2015 48