Inflation Report
August 2012
Output and supply
Chart 3.1 GDP and sectoral output(a)
(a) Chained-volume measures. GDP is at market prices. Indices of sectoral output are at basic prices.
Chart 3.2 Manufacturing and services GVA around the
Golden Jubilee in June 2002 and the Diamond Jubilee in
June 2012(a)
(a) Gross value added (GVA) at basic prices for services and manufacturing weighted by their shares in nominal value added. Data for June 2012 are consistent with the ONS’s preliminary
estimate of GDP in 2012 Q2. For information on how the ONS estimated the June 2012 data, see www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171766_274072.pdf.
Chart 3.3 Output and private sector employment
Sources: ONS (including the Labour Force Survey) and Bank calculations.
(a) Data are to 2012 Q1. Calculated as the difference between LFS whole-economy employment and total public sector employment from the ONS’s public sector employment
release, adjusted to be on a calendar-quarter basis.
(b) Data are to 2012 Q2. Chained-volume measure at market prices.
Chart 3.4 Cumulative changes in private sector employment
since 2010 Q2(a)
Sources: Labour Force Survey and Bank calculations.
(a) Based on quarterly LFS microdata that have been seasonally adjusted by Bank staff.
(b) Total may not equal sum of the components due to seasonal adjustment and because a small proportion of respondents to the LFS do not report their employment status.
Chart 3.5 Private sector employment and hours worked(a)
Sources: ONS (including the Labour Force Survey) and Bank calculations.
(a) Four-quarter moving averages.
(b) Based on quarterly LFS microdata that have been seasonally adjusted by Bank staff.
(c) As defined in footnote (a) of Chart 3.3.
Chart 3.6 Cumulative changes in private sector employment
since 2010 Q2 by occupational skill level(a)
Sources: Labour Force Survey and Bank calculations.
(a) Based on quarterly LFS microdata that have been seasonally adjusted by Bank staff. Skill levels are defined using one-digit codes from the 2010 Standard Occupational
Classification. High-skilled comprises: managers, directors and senior officials, and professional, associate professional and technical occupations. Medium-skilled
comprises: administrative and secretarial, skilled trades, and caring, leisure and other service occupations. Low-skilled comprises: process, plant and machinery operatives,
and sales and consumer services and elementary occupations.
(b) Total may not equal sum of the components due to seasonal adjustment and because a small proportion of respondents to the LFS do not report their occupation.
Chart 3.7 Whole-economy and sectoral labour productivity(a)
(a) Output per hour.
Chart 3.8 Flows into and out of employment(a)
Sources: ONS (including the Labour Force Survey) and Bank calculations.
(a) Two-quarter moving averages.
(b) Recessions are defined as at least two consecutive quarters of falling output (at constant prices) estimated using the latest data. The recessions are assumed to end once output began
to rise.
Chart 3.9 Survey indicators of capacity utilisation by sector
Sources: Bank of England, BCC, CBI, CBI/PwC and ONS.
(a) Includes measures of services capacity utilisation from the Bank’s Agents, BCC and CBI. The Agents’ data are end-quarter observations. The CBI measure weights together financial
services, business/consumer services and distributive trades surveys using shares in nominal value added. The BCC data are non seasonally adjusted.
(b) Includes measures of manufacturing capacity utilisation from the Bank’s Agents and CBI, and a measure of non-services capacity utilisation from BCC. The Agents’ data are end-quarter
observations. The BCC data are non seasonally adjusted.
Chart 3.10 Participation rate(a)
Source: ONS (including the Labour Force Survey).
(a) Percentage of the 16+ population. Three-month rolling measure.
(b) Recessions are defined as in Chart 3.8.
Chart 3.11 Unemployment rates(a)
Source: ONS (including the Labour Force Survey).
(a) Rolling three-month measures unless otherwise stated.
(b) Recessions are defined as in Chart 3.8.
(c) Defined as those people who have been unemployed for more than twelve months divided by the economically active population. Data prior to 1992 are based on non seasonally
adjusted, annual LFS microdata. These annual observations correspond to the March-May quarter.
Chart 3.12 Survey indicators of recruitment difficulties for skilled
employees(a)
Sources: CBI, ONS and Bank calculations.
(a) Balances of respondents expecting skilled labour to limit output/business over the next three months (in the manufacturing sector) or over the next twelve months (in the services
sector).
(b) Results for the financial, business and consumer services sectors are weighted together using employee jobs shares from Workforce Jobs.
Tables
Table 3.A Survey indicators of expected near-term output
growth
Sources: BCC, CBI, CBI/PwC, Markit Economics, ONS and Bank calculations.
(a) Net percentage balances of respondents reporting an increase in confidence about turnover in the non-services and services sectors, weighted together using nominal shares in value
added. Data are non seasonally adjusted.
(b) Net percentage balances of respondents reporting an increase in the expected volume of business in the manufacturing, financial services and business/consumer services sectors,
and reporting an increase in the expected volume of sales in the distributive trades sector, weighted together using nominal shares in value added.
(c) Indices of new orders (manufacturing) and business expectations (services and construction), weighted together using nominal shares in value added.
Table 3.B Selected indicators of labour market slack
Sources: ONS (including the Labour Force Survey) and Bank calculations.
(a) Unless otherwise stated.
(b) The figure for 2012 Q2 shows data for the three months to May.
(c) Percentage of the 16–64 population. This measure weights together different types of non-employed by backward-looking four-quarter moving averages of quarterly transition
rates of each group into employment derived from the LFS.
(d) Number of vacancies (excluding agriculture, forestry and fishing) divided by LFS unemployment. Average is since 2001 Q2.
Recent trends in construction sector output
Table 1 Survey indicators of construction output growth
Sources: Bank of England, Experian, Markit Economics and ONS.
(a) End-quarter observations on a scale of -5 to +5, with positive scores indicating that output increased relative to one year earlier.
(b) Quarterly averages of monthly construction activity indices. A reading above 50 indicates rising output.
(c) Chained-volume measure.
Chart A Orders for new construction work(a)
Sources: ONS and Bank calculations.
(a) Chained-volume measures at 2005 prices. The final data point is 2012 Q1. Orders for new construction work comprise new housing, new infrastructure and other new work. The split of
new infrastructure between publicly financed and privately financed is estimated using shares in non seasonally adjusted new infrastructure orders at current prices.