BREA
Market Potential
Cruise Operations
Port of Jacksonville
Presented to
Board of Commissioners
Jacksonville Port Authority
Presented by
Andrew J. Moody, Ph.D.
January 26, 2009
Presentation Overview
• Scope of Work
• Background
• Market Analysis
• Growth Analysis
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Slide 2
Scope of Work
• Objective: Assess the potential deployment
opportunities at the Port of Jacksonville
• Key factors affecting deployment opportunities
– Relocation and construction of new terminal
– Expansion of the North American fleet and its destination
deployment
– Source market for cruise passengers
– Cruise executives’ perceptions of ports
– Competition among similarly sized ports
– Growth and deployment strategies of individual cruise lines
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Slide 3
Background
• Port is currently a single ship port offering year-round 4and 5-day cruises to the Bahamas on the Fascination.
• Approximately 80% of passengers arrive by ground
transportation and 20% by air.
– More than 50% of all passengers and 75% of drive-to passengers
reside in 5 states (FL, GA, NC, AL, SC)
• Current cruise potential is limited due to size of terminal
•
•
facilities and air draft constraint.
Relocation and expansion of the cruise facilities at Mayport
will allow the port to support larger cruise ships.
Fascination and Celebration, before it, have been sailing at
over 100% capacity.
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Slide 4
Historical Cruise Performance
Cruise Sailings and Passengers
Cruise Revenues
* Estimated from year-to-date sailings and occupancy
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Slide 5
Summary of Cruise Operations
• When operating on a full–year schedule the
Fascination will generate:
– 78 sailings
– Nearly 180,000 passenger embarkations
– $3.9 million in cruise revenues
• an average of $21.80 per passenger
• or nearly $50,000 per sailing
– On average the Fascination has been sailing at
110% of capacity
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Slide 6
Market Analysis – Key Components
• North American Fleet: Supply & Deployment
• Demand: Primary Source Market
• Competitive Environment Among Tier 3 Ports
• Potential Caribbean Itineraries from
Jacksonville
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Slide 7
Overview of N.A. Cruise Industry
• Industry is entering a reduced growth phase
brought about by the global economic recession.
– Newbuilds will remain reasonably strong through
2010 and then decelerate through 2013 following a
pattern similar to that after 9/11.
• Declining yields will drive down construction with a lag.
• Some planned and committed projects have been cancelled
• Others are being re-negotiated.
– European deployments are being re-evaluated with
several ships being redeployed to North America.
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Slide 8
Overview of N.A. Cruise Industry
Annual New Vessel Introductions, 2000 - 2018
17
18
• Cyclical downturn in newbuilds re-emerges
16
14
11.4
12
10
9
10
8
7.0
8
6.2
6
6
4
• Downward trend in newbuilds continues
6
2
3
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Current Cycle
2012
2014
2016
North American Fleet by Segment – 2000-2018
Year
• Average size of cruise
ships continues to
increase
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2018
Mean Trend
2000
2009
2012
2018
2000-2009
2009-2012
2012-2018
Average Size of
Ship - 2000
Average Size of
Ship - 2009
Average Size of
Ship - 2018
Contemporary
Share of
Ships
Berths
Industry
46
74
79
86
28
5
7
85,703
177,200
195,452
240,912
91,497
18,252
45,460
63%
67%
64%
63%
72%
43%
59%
Premium
Ships
Berths
Share of
Industry
20
37
41
46
17
4
5
29,329
67,064
85,998
108,798
37,735
18,934
22,800
22%
25%
28%
28%
30%
44%
30%
Luxury/Niche
Share of
Ships Berths
Industry
49
47
53
59
-2
6
6
20,384
18,734
24,456
33,006
-1,650
5,722
8,550
15%
7%
8%
9%
-1%
13%
11%
Total
Ships
Berths
115
158
173
191
43
15
18
135,416
262,998
305,906
382,716
127,582
42,908
76,810
1,863
1,466
416
1,178
2,474
2,098
461
1,768
2,801
2,365
559
2,004
Slide 9
Deployment of N.A. Fleet
• With more and larger cruise ships joining the
N.A. fleet, bed day deployment in all
destination markets will increase.
– Overall the Caribbean will remain the largest
destination market.
• Eastern & Southern Caribbean will be a growth leader.
• Western Caribbean and the Bahamas will experience a
slight decline in market share.
– European share of deployed capacity will fall in the
short-term.
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Slide 10
Overview of N.A. Cruise Industry
• Broader Caribbean market still accounts for 40% of the
industry’s global bed day capacity.
Destination Deployment Bed- Days
2007
Share
2012
Share
Avg. Ann .
Growth
2007-2012
2018
Share
Avg. Ann .
Growth
2012-2018
Western Caribbean
15,602,000
17.4%
19,769,512
16.8%
4.8%
24,521,280
16.8%
3.7%
Eastern & Southern Caribbean
16,560,000
18.5%
22,609,821
19.3%
6.4%
28,024,320
19.2%
3.6%
Bahamas
4,634,000
5.2%
5,665,013
4.8%
4.1%
6,860,120
4.7%
3.2%
Canada/New England
1,627,000
1.8%
2,191,315
1.9%
6.1%
2,481,320
1.7%
2.1%
Bermuda
1,285,000
1.4%
1,390,406
1.2%
1.6%
1,459,600
1.0%
0.8%
Alaska
6,927,000
7.7%
9,289,031
7.9%
6.0%
11,530,840
7.9%
3.7%
Hawaii
3,826,000
4.3%
2,500,000
2.1%
-8.2%
2,335,360
1.6%
-1.1%
Mexico West
4,948,000
5.5%
6,887,339
5.9%
6.8%
8,903,560
6.1%
4.4%
Europe & All Other
34,298,000
38.2%
47,067,726
40.1%
6.5%
59,843,600
41.0%
4.1%
Total
89,707,000
5.5%
145,960,000
Regions
117,370,163
3.7%
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Slide 11
Implications for Jacksonville
• The North American fleet will continue to
expand, albeit at a slower pace, providing more
opportunities for smaller ports, like Jacksonville,
to homeport ships displaced from larger ports.
• Jacksonville is in a geographical location that
will support cruise development in the
expanding Eastern and Southern Caribbean.
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Slide 12
The Caribbean and the Southeast Ports
• Approximately 6.8 million passengers on more
than 3,850 cruises visit the Caribbean annually.
– The Eastern & Southern Caribbean has been gaining
market share primarily at the expense of the
Western Caribbean.
• The ports of the Southeast account for about
75% of the cruises and passengers destined for
the Caribbean.
– The “Tier 1 and Tier 2” ports of South Florida
account for about 94% of the passenger volume.
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Slide 13
The “Tier 3” Ports of the Southeast
• Jacksonville and Mobile are the dominant “Tier 3” ports
in the region
– Both are year-round and single-ship ports serving a single
destination market
• Charleston and Norfolk are seasonal ports
Cruises and Passengers by Port of Embarkation
2004
Port
Ship
Calls
2005
Pax
Share of
Category
Ship
Calls
Pax
2006
Share of
Category
Ship
Calls
2007
Pax
Share of
Category
Ship
Calls
Pax
Share of
Category
Tier 1 and Tier 2 Ports
Miami
641
1,749,000
37.4%
656
1,803,000
38.1%
705
1,866,000
38.4%
679
1,893,000
39.1%
Port Everglades
637
1,324,000
28.3%
618
1,283,000
27.1%
534
1,145,000
23.5%
582
1,289,000
26.6%
Port Canaveral
464
1,220,000
26.1%
455
1,234,000
26.1%
525
1,396,000
28.7%
482
1,298,000
26.8%
Tampa
198
385,000
8.2%
192
408,000
8.6%
222
457,000
9.4%
173
367,000
7.6%
1,940
4,678,000
1,921
4,728,000
1,986
4,864,000
1,916
4,847,000
Subtotal
Tier 3 Ports
Jacksonville
65
113,728
49.6%
83
137,083
44.0%
77
128,085
42.8%
78
130,148
Norfolk
37
47,888
20.9%
31
45,414
14.6%
17
25,179
8.4%
16
30,660
9.1%
Charleston
24
38,892
17.0%
25
41,337
13.3%
29
47,216
15.8%
27
44,379
13.2%
12.6%
28.1%
33.0%
38.9%
Mobile
18
28,821
52
87,628
60
98,664
79
130,366
Subtotal
144
229,329
191
311,462
183
299,144
200
335,553
4,907,329
2,112
5,039,462
2,169
5,163,144
2,116
5,182,553
Grand Total
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2,084
38.8%
Slide 14
The “Tier 3” Ports of the Southeast
•
•
•
•
Charleston and Jacksonville offer cruises to the Bahamas
Mobile cruises are destined for Mexico
Cruises from Norfolk sail to Bermuda and the Caribbean
Charleston and Norfolk ships are being redeployed in 2010
–
Celebrity adding 5 calls in Charleston in 2010
–
Carnival adding 4 calls in Norfolk and 2 in Charleston in 2010
Cruise Itineraries of the Tier 3 Southeast Ports
Jacksonville
Mobile
Charleston
Norfolk
Grandeur
of the
Seas
Caribbean
Bahamas
Fascination
Holiday
Holiday
Holiday
Bahamas
Bahamas
Mexico
Mexico
Mexico
Bermuda
Bahamas
Bahamas
Grandeur
of the
Seas
Bermuda
5-Day (A)
5-Day (B)
4-Day
7- Day (B)
5-Day
5-Day
9-Day
6-Day
Jacksonville
Mobile
5-Day
(B)
Mobile
7- Day (A)
Jacksonville
5-Day
(A)
Mobile
Charleston
Charleston
Charleston
Norfolk
Norfolk
Norfolk
At Sea
At Sea
At Sea
At Sea
At Sea
At Sea
At Sea
At Sea
At Sea
At Sea
At Sea
Key West
Cozumel
Progreso
Cozumel
Cozumel
Calica
San Juan
Nassau
Jacksonville
At Sea
At Sea
Mobile
At Sea
At Sea
Freeport
At Sea
King's
Wharf
King's
Wharf
At Sea
Nassau
At Sea
Great
Stirrup
Nassau
At Sea
Nassau
Jacksonville
Mobile
Mobile
Charleston
Norfolk
7
Port
Canaveral
At Sea
St.
Thomas
Dom.
Rep.
Haiti
Freeport
Jacksonville
St.
George's
St.
George's
St.
George's
St.
George's
At Sea
Freeport
At Sea
Half Moon
Cay
Nassau
8
Charleston
Charleston
Ship
Fascination
Destination
Bahamas
Day
4-Day
1
Jacksonville
2
Freeport
3
Nassau
4
5
6
Fascination
NCL
Majesty
NCL
Majesty
Triumph
Nassau
9
At Sea
Norfolk
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At Sea
Norfolk
At Sea
10
BREA
Triumph
Slide 15
The Cruise Port Evaluations
Attribute
Highway Access
Parking Capacity
Airlift Capacity
Local Access f/ Airport
Highway Access
Storage Facilities
Access for Largest Ships
Ease of Navigation
Ease of Docking
Berthing Capacity
Terminal Capacity
Terminal Comfort
Terminal Amenities
Overall Security
Port Vessel Fees
Port Passenger Fees
Port Parking Fees
Port Labor Costs
Port Security Charges
City as a Destination
Overall Ranking of Port
Mobile
Charleston
Norfolk
Current
Jacksonville
Proposed
Jacksonville
Accessibility to Source Markets
Drive-to Markets
All ports were judged to have very good highway access for the drive-to market.
Sufficient
Insufficient
Sufficient
Sufficient
Sufficient
Fly-to Markets
Inadequate
Inadequate
Good
Just adequate
Just adequate
All ports are judged to have very good highway access from the airport to the port.
Accessibility for Suppliers
All ports were judged to have very good highway access for suppliers.
Just adequate
Inadequate
Inadequate
Just adequate
Just adequate
Accessibility for Cruise Ships
Poor
Adequate
Adequate
Very Poor
Excellent
Average
Average
Average
Below Average
Excellent
Average
Average
Average
Average
Excellent
Port Facilities
Very Inadequate
Inadequate
Inadequate
Very Inadequate
Adequate
Adequate
Very Poor
Very Good
Poor
Very Good
Very Good
Very Poor
Very Good
Poor
Very Good
Average
Very Poor
Very Good
Average
Very Good
Very Good
Average
Average
Average
Average
Port Fees and Costs
Average
Average
Average
Average
Average
Average
Average
Average
Average
Average
Average
Average
Average
Average
Average
Below Average
Average
Above Average
Average
Average
Average
Average
Average
Average
Average
Miscellaneous
Below Average
Above Average
Average
Average
Average
Average
Below Average
Average
Average
Above Average
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Slide 16
The Jacksonville Source Market
• Source market defined by 2-, 4- and 6-hour drive times
– Constrained to the south by Tampa and Port Canaveral
– Constrained to the west by Mobile
• Core target market consists of individuals between the age of
25 and 80 with a household income over $40,000
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Slide 17
The Jacksonville Source Market
• 1.44 million potential Caribbean cruise passengers
Target Market Size
1.50 Million Households
3.90 Million Individuals
Non-Vacationers
(39%)
1.52 Million Individuals
Vacationers
(61%)
2.38 Million Individuals
Past Cruisers
(45%)
1.07 Million Individuals
Potential Caribbean Cruisers
(61%)
0.65 Million Individuals
Cruise Prospects
(55%)
1.31 Million Individuals
Non-Caribbean Cruisers
(39%)
0.42 Million Individuals
Potential Caribbean Cruisers
(60%)
0.79 Million Individuals
Non-Caribbean Cruisers
(40%)
0.52 Million Individuals
Target Caribbean Cruisers
1.44 Million Individuals
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Slide 18
The Jacksonville Source Market
• High growth market with region’s largest population
center
• Nearly 50% of the target cruise market resides within a
2-hour drive of Jacksonville
• Penetration rates of projected drive-to cruise volume at
Jacksonville for 2009
– 10% of potential Caribbean cruisers
– 6% of all potential cruisers
– 3.7% of all total “core” target market
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Slide 19
Implications for Jacksonville
• Proposed relocation and construction of new terminal
facilities enhances the port’s image and operating
characteristics.
• Charleston, Jacksonville’s nearest Tier 3 competitor, is
considered to be the least attractive port.
• Jacksonville is considered to have adequate drive-to
capacity.
• With adequate fly-to capacity, Jacksonville can also
attract passengers for longer cruise itineraries.
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Slide 20
Destinations in the Bahamas
• The Bahamas is capable of supporting multiple cruise
itineraries.
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Slide 21
Existing Itineraries from Florida Ports
• Canaveral to the Eastern Caribbean – Disney Magic
– Similar cruises can be easily originated in Jacksonville.
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Slide 22
Existing Itineraries from Florida Ports
• Canaveral to the Eastern Caribbean – Freedom of the Seas
– A similar cruise could be offered from Jacksonville with ship with
sufficient speed and range.
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Slide 23
Existing Itineraries from Florida Ports
• Miami to the Eastern Caribbean – Carnival Triumph
– Also possible from Jacksonville.
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Slide 24
Implications for Jacksonville
• 7-day or longer itineraries to the Eastern
Caribbean are certainly feasible from the Port
of Jacksonville.
• Cruises to the Southern Caribbean while
unlikely would have to include at least one call
at a Eastern Caribbean port and be 10 days.
• 7-day cruises to the Western Caribbean are
feasible with an initial call at Key West and two
calls in the Western Caribbean.
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Slide 25
Summary of Market Analysis
• Increase in North American fleet will result in a
trickle down of homeport deployment from the
major to minor ports.
• Caribbean deployment will continue to increase
with the Eastern Caribbean increasing its
market share.
• Jacksonville has only a small penetration into its
drive-to market for potential Caribbean cruisers
and should be able to attract more passengers
from this market.
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Slide 26
Summary of Market Analysis
• Relocation and construction of the new cruise
facility will enhance the port’s image and cruise
operations.
• There are numerous cruise itineraries
throughout the Caribbean that can be offered
from the Port of Jacksonville.
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Slide 27
Growth Analysis – Key Components
• S.W.O.T. Analysis
• Target Cruise Lines
• Summary of Potential Itineraries
• Tier 1 Ports: Capacity and Displacement Effects
• Potential New Deployments in Jacksonville
• Estimates of Passenger and Revenue Growth
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Slide 28
S.W.O.T Analysis
• Port’s strengths outweigh its weaknesses
and its opportunities overshadow the
threats.
STRENGTHS
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Improved marine access
Good access to source markets
Expanded parking facilities
Good access to Caribbean destinations
Proven ability to fill ships
Good port operations
1.
2.
Access to a broader Caribbean market
Geographic location in southeast U.S.
3.
Year-round cruise potential
4.
Local resort and venues for pre- and post-cruise
stays
OPPORTUNITIES
WEAKNESSES
1.
2.
3.
Dependent on a single ship and cruise line
Can only berth a single ship
Single cruise destination
THREATS
1. Potential for Carnival to expand in Mobile
2. Small probability of redeployment of Fascination
3. Charleston could invest in cruise port
facilities
4. Saturation of the Bahamas as a cruise destination
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Slide 29
Target Cruise Lines
• Carnival
–
–
–
–
Steady expansion and committed to the Caribbean
Will redeploy ships from Europe
Has been successful at Jacksonville
Has been willing to add capacity at the port
• Norwegian
– Has a strong focus on drive-to markets
– Moving out of Charleston
– Opportunity for redeployment from other East Coast
ports
– Overall operations under review
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Slide 30
Target Cruise Lines
• Celebrity
–
–
–
–
In the midst of a significant fleet expansion
Has a history with Jacksonville
New terminal should be beneficial
Market demographics must fit their passenger profile
• Royal Caribbean
– Steady expansion and committed to the Caribbean
– Expanding in the Eastern & Southern Caribbean
– Opportunity for redeployment from other East Coast
ports
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Slide 31
Potential Itineraries
• Potential Eastern Caribbean cruise itineraries
– A mix of the Bahamas and the Eastern Caribbean
Itinerary 1
Itinerary 2
Itinerary 3
Itinerary 4
Eastern
Caribbean
Eastern
Caribbean
Eastern
Caribbean
Eastern
Caribbean
7-Day
Jacksonville
At Sea
At Sea
Dominican
Republic
7-Day
Jacksonville
At Sea
At Sea
7-Day
Jacksonville
At Sea
At Sea
7-Day
Jacksonville
At Sea
At Sea
St. Thomas
San Juan
St. Thomas
5
Grand Turk
Grand Turk
6
7
At Sea
Freeport
Jacksonville
At Sea
Freeport
Jacksonville
Destination
Day
1
2
3
4
Dominican
Republic
Haiti
At Sea
Jacksonville
San Juan
At Sea
Nassau
Jacksonville
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Slide 32
Potential Itineraries
• Potential Western Caribbean cruise itineraries
– A mix of the Bahamas and the Western Caribbean
Itinerary 1
Itinerary 2
Itinerary 3
Destination
Western
Caribbean
Western
Caribbean
Western
Caribbean
Day
1
2
3
4
7-Day
Jacksonville
At Sea
At Sea
Grand Cayman
7-Day
Jacksonville
At Sea
At Sea
Ocho Rios
5
Cozumel
6
7
At Sea
Freeport
Jacksonville
7-Day
Jacksonville
At Sea
At Sea
Ocho Rios
Grand
Cayman
At Sea
Freeport
Jacksonville
Grand Cayman
At Sea
Key West
Jacksonville
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Slide 33
Capacity Utilization at Tier 1 Ports
• Tier 1 ports in Florida are at or near capacity on
prime weekend dates.
• Even if not at capacity congestion at Miami and
Port Everglades is a growing problem.
• Cruise ship sailings and passenger volumes will
continue to increase at these ports through
2011.
• Redeployments and displacements will continue.
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Slide 34
Port Canaveral
• Port Canaveral averages 8 weekly cruises in March
2009 which will grow to 9 in 2010
– Deployment of Freedom of the Seas in 2010 reaches Sunday
limit
• Peak Saturday Passengers: 2009 – 4,800+; 2010 – 5,400+
• Peak Sunday Passengers: 2009 – 3,800+; 2010 – 7,400+
Available Berths: 3
Available Berths: 3
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Slide 35
Port Everglades
• Port Everglades averages 15 weekly cruises in March
2009 which will grow to 17 in 2010
– There is limited additional capacity and high passenger
volumes on Saturdays and Sundays
• Peak Saturday Passengers: 2009 – 16,000+; 2010 – 24,000+
• Peak Sunday Passengers: 2009 – 14,000+; 2010 – 16,000+
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Slide 36
Port of Miami
• Port of Miami averages 18 weekly cruises in March
2009 and 2010
– There is limited additional capacity and high passenger
volumes on Sundays and Mondays
• Peak Sunday Passengers: 2009 – 14,000+; 2010 – 14,000+
• Peak Monday Passengers: 2009 – 13,000+; 2010 – 13,000+
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Slide 37
Redeployment in Action
• Introduction of 3,652- passenger
• Introduction of 5,400- passenger
– Displaces the 2,972-passenger
Carnival Glory at Port Canaveral
– Displaces the 3,114- passenger
Navigator of the Seas at Port
Everglades
Carnival Dream
– Carnival Glory then displaces the
2,758-passenger Carnival Triumph in
Miami
– Carnival Triumph then displaces the
2,052-passenger Carnival Fantasy in
New Orleans
– Carnival Fantasy then displaces the
1,452-passenger Holiday in Mobile
Oasis of the Seas
– Navigator of the Seas then displaces
the 3,634-passenger Freedom of the
Seas in Miami
– Freedom of the Seas is then deployed
at Port Canaveral as a second RCCL
ship
– Exhausts available berths on Sundays
– Holiday is deployed outside North
America
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Slide 38
Attributes of Potential New Deployment
• Carnival is likely to continue to deploy larger ships at Jacksonville
over time as full capacity is maintained.
– Fascination
Triumph Class
Conquest Class
• NCL will likely discontinue operations at Charleston and will deploy
new F3 ship in Miami in 2010.
– A ship like the Norwegian Spirit could be deployed on alternative
Bahamas or Eastern Caribbean itineraries.
• RCCL/Celebrity have reduced their presence in both Charleston
and Norfolk in 2010 and will add numerous ships through 2011.
– RCCL will deploy the Allure of the Seas at Port Everglades in 2011
resulting in a chain of redeployments.
– Celebrity will be adding another two ships by 2011 and may be
interested in moving the Century from Miami.
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Slide 39
Deployment Potential
• Expansion of cruise itineraries to the Eastern and
Western Caribbean.
– More than a doubling of passengers and cruise revenues
Year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Sailings
65
83
77
78
53
78
78
104
104
Passengers
113,728
137,083
128,085
130,148
100,414
176,062
176,062
287,102
287,102
2013
130
355,468
2014
130
355,468
2015
130
371,498
2016
130
379,634
2017
130
379,634
2018
130
379,634
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Ships
Zenith, Miracle, Jubilee, Celebration
Zenith, Celebration
Celebration
Celebration
Celebration, Fascination
Fascination
Fascination
CCL Triumph Class, NCL Sky/Spirit Class
CCL Triumph Class, NCL Sky/Spirit Class
CCL Triumph Class, NCL Sky/Spirit Class,
RCCL Vision Class
CCL Triumph Class, NCL Sky/Spirit Class,
RCCL Vision Class
CCL Conquest Class, NCL Dawn/Star Class,
RCCL Vision Class
CCL Conquest Class, NCL Dawn/Star Class,
RCCL Sovereign Class
CCL Conquest Class, NCL Dawn/Star Class,
RCCL Sovereign Class
CCL Conquest Class, NCL Dawn/Star Class,
RCCL Sovereign Class
Port Revenues
$2,101,693
$2,264,611
$2,313,215
$2,502,746
$1,926,945
$3,838,143
$3,934,096
$6,575,686
$6,740,078
Rev/Pax
$18.48
$16.52
$18.06
$19.23
$19.19
$21.80
$22.35
$22.90
$23.48
$8,553,672
$24.06
$8,767,514
$24.66
$9,391,969
$25.28
$9,837,583
$25.91
$10,083,523
$26.56
$10,335,611
$27.23
Slide 40
Summary
• Expansion of the North American fleet with larger ships being
deployed on Caribbean itineraries will continue.
• Movement of ships from Tier 1 to Tier 2 to Tier 3 ports will be
necessary.
• Jacksonville is located so as to be able to source passengers
throughout the southeast and to also access destinations
throughout most of the Caribbean.
• With the construction of a new terminal at Mayport, Jacksonville
will be able to handle the largest cruise ships and have a
competitive advantage over other Tier 3 ports.
• As a result Jacksonville has the potential to more than double
current passenger volumes and revenues over the next decade.
BREA
www.breanet.com
Slide 41