Which way forward for national accounts ?
An overview
F. Lenglart, J. Magniez, A. Vanoli
December 2nd, 2010
Which way forward for national accounts ?
• The central framework :
what is not changing ? what is changing ? which open issues ?
• Income distribution and well-being :
- breaking down the households’ account into categories
- articulation with social satellite accounts
• Micro/macro articulation in the enterprises’ sector
• National accounts and globalization of production processes
• Interactions Economy / Nature
• Implementation: which governance ?
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F. L., J.M., A.V.
OECD WPNA December 2nd, 2010
The central framework
(1)
No change
› Reference units grouped into few institutional sectors
› An accounting framework including current accounts, accumulation
accounts and balance sheets
specificity: « capital gains » accounts
› Classifications: transactions, other flows, assets and liabilities
› Accounting rules
› Are part of the central framework
› IOT – including data on production factors
› volume-price decomposition
› Estimates are mostly derived from observed data; modelling takes
up limited room
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F. L., J.M., A.V.
OECD WPNA December 2nd, 2010
The central framework
(2)
No change - Beyond GDP
› Net macro aggregates
› Disposable income and adjusted disposable income
› The link between flow accounts and balance sheets accounts : the
three origins of the changes in net worth
› Production is still a key concept : the necessary equality between
value added and income (at the global level)
› Possibility to use revaluation accounts to undertake additional
analyses
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F. L., J.M., A.V.
OECD WPNA December 2nd, 2010
The central framework
(3)
Innovations et open issues
Innovations (SNA08)
Welcome ones…
› Treatment of R&D as fixed asset
› Evaluation of pension entitlements, whatever the kind of pension
scheme considered
… and a less happy one
› Treatment of military equipment as fixed asset
Open issues
› Output measurement for financial activities
› Improvements in price/volume measurement (GFCF, non market)
› An economy of products for free
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F. L., J.M., A.V.
OECD WPNA December 2nd, 2010
Income distribution and well-being
Breaking down the households’ account by groups (1)
Why ?
› HH account :
An indispensable account, built up directly at a macro level by way of
« mirroring », thanks to the central NA framework…
…that says however nothing about the heterogeneity of individual
situations
› Bridging micro and macro approaches, on the basis of HH surveys :
knocking down the « dictatorship of average figures », while enhancing
their credibility
› A productive dialogue between specialists in micro social statistics and
national accountants, that can trigger quality enhancement of statistics
produced on both sides
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F. L., J.M., A.V.
OECD WPNA December 2nd, 2010
Income distribution and well-being
Breaking down the households’ account by groups (2)
First results (for France)
› HH account by category - standard of living, household composition,
employment status, age of the head of household - in 2003 : income,
final consumption expenditure, actual final consumption
Work to undertake
› Complete the breaking down exercise to capital account, financial
accounts and balance sheets (in practice, only the last one seems
attainable at medium term for France)
› Produce an evaluation of HH account by category in evolution
› Coordinate this type of work at international level
(see OECD/Eurostat recent initiatives)
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F. L., J.M., A.V.
OECD WPNA December 2nd, 2010
Income distribution and well-being
Link with social satellite accounts
exemple : education
› Within the scope of NA
– Factors of production (nb of teachers, schools)
– Volume of service output (nb of students, successful exams)
– Taking into account a quality effect (reasoning « every things
being equal » for succeeding in an exam)
› Outside the scope of NA
– Well-being derived from the use of education services, which
depends upon the volume of services provided but also of other
factors (student’s leasure time, socio-cultural environment…)
› Social satellite accounts should be designed to present ressources
put at disposal by the economy and well-being indicators
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F. L., J.M., A.V.
OECD WPNA December 2nd, 2010
Micro/macro linkage in the enterprises’ sector
Work to undertake
› Breaking down the non financial corporations into categories :
small/medium/large, public/private, listed/ unlisted on stock markets
› Possible to compile production and generation of income accounts using
existing business statistical sources ;
› Investigate the feasibility of the compilation of distribution of income
account
› For the purpose of this project, it is necessary to raise the issue of the
reference statistical unit : switching from the legal unit to the « real »
corporation from an economic point of view, profiling multinational
enterprises in « operational divisions »
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F. L., J.M., A.V.
OECD WPNA December 2nd, 2010
National accounts and globalization of
production processes
(1)
› MNEs’ development is weakening the estimation quality of national
macroeconomic aggregates
Large and increasing part of exchanges in goods and services and of
distributive transactions between the national economy and the
RoW are « intra-OD »
Work to undertake
› Distinguishing within the corporation sector « resident corporations » and
« resident subsidiaries of multinational corporations»
› Compiling a complete account of multinational corporations that are
(partially) resident
› Systematically distinguishing in SUT the transactions on products taking
place within a same economic unit
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F. L., J.M., A.V.
OECD WPNA December 2nd, 2010
National accounts and globalization of
production processes
(2)
› Today:
M + P = IC + C + GCF + X
› Tomorrow :
Within economic units
M’ + P’ = IC’ + C’ + GCF’ + X’
Between economic units
M’’ + P’’ = IC’’ + C’’ + GCF’’ + X’’
multinational
country
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F. L., J.M., A.V.
OECD WPNA December 2nd, 2010
Interactions Economy / Nature (1)
Put the emphasis (also) on final demand
› Estimate physical quantities of pollutants due to final demand products
(carbon footprint for instance)
› Evaluate ecological hidden costs, in monetary value
› Increase the value of final demand
=
+
costs payed (price)
ecological costs not payed related to damages to environmental assets
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F. L., J.M., A.V.
OECD WPNA December 2nd, 2010
Interactions Economy / Nature (2)
An enlarged central framework - 1
planet
Economy
Nature
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F. L., J.M., A.V.
OECD WPNA December 2nd, 2010
Interactions Economy / Nature (3)
An enlarged central framework - 2
Economy
central
framework
Economy
enlarged central
framework
Final demand
FD
+ ecological costs
Saving
S
- ecological costs
+ capital transfer
Balance sheet
variation
NetValue = S
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F. L., J.M., A.V.
OECD WPNA December 2nd, 2010
nature
- capital
transfer
NetValue =
- ecological
costs
Interactions Economy / Nature (4)
Work to undertake
› Produce « footprint » accounts by type of pollutants on a regular basis
› How to estimate unpaid ecological costs in monetary value ?
› Launch pilot operations
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F. L., J.M., A.V.
OECD WPNA December 2nd, 2010
Implementation: which governance ?
› Large improvements to make on concepts, methods and information to
be collected
› Develop international statistical collaborations (exchanges and coproduction of statistical information) and inter-disciplinary collaborations
(statistics, economy, engineer sciences, social sciences)
› A logic of « clusters » : experiment before launching large scale projects
under the umbrella of international comparisons.
› Building up Purchasing Power Parities at a global scale:
a governance model to follow ?
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F. L., J.M., A.V.
OECD WPNA December 2nd, 2010
Thank you for your attention
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F. L., J.M., A.V.
OECD WPNA December 2nd, 2010