Electric Vehicles and their
Renewable Connection
How Australia Can Take Part in the Green Revolution
Electric cars - Now! http://www.sahkoautot.fi/eng
Dr Andrew Simpson, ASDI Conversation Series – 10 June 2009
Curtin University Sustainability Policy (CUSP) Institute
PB-CUSP Alliance
www.sustainability.curtin.edu.au
Outline
• Background
• Short history of transport and energy systems
• A vision for plug-in electric-drive vehicles (EVs) in a new
paradigm of sustainable communities
• Global enabling factors:
–
–
–
–
–
Lithium-ion batteries
Mass-market EVs
Smart grids
Renewable energy
Green stimulus packages
• Barriers and Opportunities for Australia
• How is CUSP pursuing this vision?
Andrew Background
20th Century:
Age of the combustion engine
21st Century:
Age of the electric vehicle
Lower population densities, large travel distances.
Higher population densities, shrinking cities, falling VKT,
smart growth.
Larger vehicles with high performance and long endurance.
Smaller, pedestrian-friendly vehicles.
Abundant, indigenous petroleum.
Peak oil and price volatility. Geo-political conflict.
Exhaust emissions soaked up by atmosphere.
Car tailpipes less-smelly than horses.
Urban smog and chronic health problems.
Global warming hadn’t been invented yet
Climate change mitigation and adaptation.
Nationalised electric grids, centralized and subsidized
Privatised electric grids, traded on open markets.
Electricity provided on-demand
Extreme peak demand growth, T&D bottlenecks.
“Dirty” electricity – emissions soaked up by atmosphere
Mandatory targets for renewable energy
A vision for EVs in sustainable communities
Onsite water and
renewable energy
Building efficiency
and zero-waste
Smart grid
Transit-oriented
development
Plug-in EVs
Enabling Factor: Travel Patterns
Cumulative Distribution of Daily Driving Distances in Australia
Adelaide – 98% drive less than 100km
Sydney – 87% drive less than 100km
Enabling Factor: Travel Patterns
US VMT plateau in 2006, reducing since 2008
Enabling Factor: Travel Patterns
Plug-In Vehicle Utility Factor - 2001 vs 1995
100%
90%
80%
Utility Factor
70%
60%
2001 NHTS
50%
1995 NPTS
40%
Plug-in vehicle utility is increasing
as typical driving distances reduce.
30%
20%
10%
0%
0
10
20
30
40
50
Distance (miles)
60
70
80
90
100
Enabling Technology: Li-Ion Batteries
CARB expert panel (2007): “High energy Li-Ion technology has good potential to
meet all performance requirements of EVs with batteries of modest
weight…cell and battery technology designed for these applications are likely
to also meet cycle life goals.”
NB: Not all Li-Ion batteries are created equal.
Li-Ion Battery Charging and Safety
Charging
• Li-ion battery charging rates depend on
chemistry and anode/cathode design
• Most batteries can charge in <60min,
some batteries can charge in <10min.
• Charging supply is usually the
bottleneck
Safety
• Li-ion battery safety also depends on
chemistry and anode/cathode design
• The preferred automotive chemistry (Liion nanophosphate) is inherently safer
and cannot go into thermal runaway.
• Monitoring/management is critical for
some other Li-Ion chemistries
Enabling Factor: Mass-produced EVs
Chevy Volt PHEV – 60km
Mercedes BlueZERO EV – 200km
Toyota FT-EV – 80km
Mini EV – 240km
Mitsubishi MiEV – 125km
Ford Focus EV – 160km
NB: Established car companies don’t always get it right.
Enabling Factor: New EV Companies
TH!NK City EV – 180km
BYD E6 EV – 300km
Aptera 2e EV – 160km
Fisker Karma PHEV – 80km
Tesla Roadster EV – 400km
Reva EV – 160km
NB: There are tremendous barriers to entry for new car companies
EV/PHEV Production Ramp
Industry Plans for Global Production of EVs and PHEVs
800,000
Production >600,000 units by 2012
700,000
Annual Production
600,000
500,000
EVs
400,000
PHEVs
Total
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
To-date
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
EV/PHEV Market Prices
Forecast Pricing Distribution for Global Production EVs/HEVs
(model launches during 2009-2012)
8
7
Median price $42,000
6
4
3
2
1
Price (AUD)
More
130000
120000
110000
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
0
Frequency
5
EVs’ Lower Cost of Motoring
Annual Motoring Cost Comparison – Small Sedan – 15,000km per Year
Fuel cost - $1.00/L
Fuel cost - $1.50/L
ICE
1110
1665
HEV
660
990
PHEV
330
495
EV
0
0
Elec cost - 5c/kWh
Elec cost - 20c/kWh
0
0
0
0
69
278
139
555
Battery degradation1
0
0
377
583
Maintenance2
726
631
539
365
Totals – low
Totals – high
$1836
$2391
$1291
$1621
$1316
$1689
$1087
$1503
1 CARB Expert Panel Review of ZEV Technology (2007) – assumes 80% residual capacity at end of life.
2 EPRI Study of EV/PHEV Lifecycle Costs (2004)
NB: Innovative business models can amortize EVs’ higher upfront cost.
No oil required for EVs
from Garnaut Review (2008)
NB: No oil required for EVs = energy independence
Greenhouse Emissions
Well-to-Wheel GHG Emissions for Petrol vs Electric Vehicles in Australia
250
Emissions (gCO2e/km)
200
Small Sedan Platform
Oil shale
Tar sands
Gas-to-liquids
Coal-to-liquids
Evolution of
electricity
supply
Evolution of
petroleum
supply
IGCC
CO2 seq.
Wind/solar
Wave/tidal
150
100
50
0
ICE - 7.4L/100km
HEV - 4.4L/100km
PHEV - 50% UF
EV - 185Wh/km
NB: Cleaner electricity means cleaner EVs.
MRET 20%
Electricity
Petrol
Lifecycle Analysis for EVs/PHEVs
Toyota study of Prius
HEV – a net winner
after 20,000km.
MIT study of alt.
vehicle technologies
– EVs a net winner
compared to ICE.
EV Recharging Infrastructure
Better Place
Toyota Industries
Elektromotive
Coulomb Technologies / Charge Point
NB: Standardized EV infrastructure is essential.
EV Battery Exchange
Better Place
Enabling Technology: Smart Grids
(cars as appliances)
Courtesy of EPRI
EVs and Smart Grid: Capacity Expansion
• The existing US electricity grid can support a light-duty vehicle fleet
that is composed of 73% EVs (160 million).
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
(2007) “Impacts Assessment of PlugIn Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities
and Regional U.S. Power Grids”
NB: No new capacity required to support mass-market EVs,
but utility-optimized charging is preferred.
EVs and Smart Grid: Capacity Factors
• EVs can increase capacity factors with low marginal cost of
electricity supplied.
Letendre et al (2006) “Electric & Hybrid Cars – New Load, or New Resource?”
EVs and Smart Grid: Ancillary Services
• Ancillary services are a multi-billion-dollar market, and are also the
most promising application of vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology.
NB: “Back-feeding” of power is not essential to provide V2G services.
EVs and Utilities
• Utilities that ‘get it’ are incredibly supportive of EVs
• Southern California Edison (SCE)
Southern California Edison (SCE)
Electric Vehicle Technical Center
SCE has operated a fleet of 320
Toyota RAV4 EVs since 1998
EVs and Utilities
• Pacific Gas & Electric
(PG&E)
– Special EV tariffs
– Early adopter of preproduction EVs
– Considering aftermarket for
used EV batteries
EVs and Utilities
• Xcel Energy
– Field trials with 6 Ford Escape PHEVs with smart charging
– Comprehensive service territory modelling with NREL
EVs and Utilities
• Electricite de France (EDF)
– Prius PHEV field trials in Paris, London and soon, Spain
NB: Many utilities are still unfamiliar with EVs.
EVs and Smart Grid: V2G Aggregators
• Emerging business opportunities for EV “aggregators” who can pool
EV resources, sell V2G services to utilities, and provide new
commercial models for EV ownership to consumers.
Project Better Place
Coulomb Technologies
EVs and Smart Grid: Enabling Renewables
Grid mix without EVs
Grid mix with EVs
Doubling of installed wind capacity
Short & Denholm (2006) “A Preliminary
Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Electric
Vehicles on Wind Energy Markets”
Enabling Renewables: Solar EV Charging
Enabling Technology: Maturing Renewables
Hunwick Consultants (2002)
Enabling Factor: Green Stimulus Packages
$11B for Smart Grids,
$6B for Renewables,
$2B for Plug-in Vehicles!
$2B for Renewables,
$1B for Green Cars,
$100M for Smart Grids!
It might happen first in our backyard!
North Port Quay: a carbon-free community development
based on renewables, smart grids and electric vehicles.
Barriers to EVs in sustainable
communities in Australia
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Lack of plug-in vehicles & components
Lack of plug-in infrastructure
Lack of plug-in vehicle standards and regulations
Misperceptions about EVs
Market distortions due to undersupply
Lack of green vehicle incentives
Regulatory constraints in the utility industry
Lack of truly smart grids
Lack of foresight in urban planning processes
Opportunities for EVs in sustainable
communities in Australia
• Vehicles and charging infrastructure
– components and systems
– hardware and software
– new and retrofit
Blade Electron (VIC)
•
•
•
•
New automotive business models
Aggregators of V2G ancillary services
Demonstrations and pilot deployments
New communities (green and brown-field)
How is CUSP pursuing its vision?
The CUSP team:
Peter Newman, Andrew Simpson, Walter James, Andrew Went and Peter Wolfs
Research projects:
• Potential for EVs, smart grids and renewables (Walter James with Western Power)
• Distribution impacts of EVs in smart grids (Andrew Went)
• Transmission dynamics for EVs in smart grids (Prof Peter Wolfs with Western Power)
• Economics of EVs (Andrew Simpson)
• Environmental benefits of EVs (team in conjunction with EV infrastructure provider)
Stakeholder engagement and pilot deployments
• West Australian EV Reference Group (with UWA, Murdoch and CO2 Smart)
• Linking to AutoCRC and local EV conversion businesses for domestic EV supply
• Advisors to green urban developments e.g. North Port Quay and Lochiel Park
CUSP Discussion Paper: Renewable Transport – How Renewable Energy and Electric
Vehicles using Vehicle to Grid Technology can make Carbon Free Urban Development
http://sustainability.curtin.edu.au/local/docs/cusp_discussion_paper.pdf
From this…
…to this…
…or we’ll be stuck with this.
Any Questions?