Pre-Proposals for Post Summit Work RMI wrote these “Pre-Proposals” after the Summit, as an attempt to further flesh out the implementation items identified by the breakout groups. RMI intends for these Pre-Proposals to be a starting point for anyone pursuing funding for these efforts and anticipates that the group that is championing each effort will edit these as needed. Please visit this online form to indicate your interest in either funding or contributing to one of the following efforts: 1. Reviewing the White Paper on modeling guidelines, produced by the Methods and Processes group (see Section 1) 2. Helping with improvements to existing professional certification programs (see Section 2) 3. Serving on a committee to examine opportunities to improve higher education for building energy analysis (see Section 3) 4. Creating webinars and training courses around building energy modeling and building physics for a wide array of professionals such as architects, building operators, commissioning agents, etc (see Section 4) 5. Serving on a Steering Committee to address issues related to market drivers and customer demand for building energy modeling (see Sections 5) 6. Helping to launch an awareness campaign (See Section 6) targeted at potential customers to: a. Clearly communicate the value proposition for including building energy modeling in a variety of applications, b. Arm potential customers with case studies that demonstrate the tangible benefit modeling has brought to different “real-world” projects, and c. Teach potential customers when and how to incorporate modeling into their decision-making processes. 7. Working to create and maintain the “Knowledgebase” - a new hub of expert-rated building simulation information that is maintained and continuously populated with new building science and simulation resources (see Section 7) 8. Contributing to the IBPSA-USA BEMbook Wiki - an online compendium of the domain of building energy modeling (BEM). The intention is to delineate a cohesive body of knowledge for building energy modeling. 9. Working to create and maintain the “Database” - a public, centralized resource that hosts granular operational building data, beyond just energy use (see Section 8) 10. Helping to develop a standardized quality control framework for energy modeling (see Section 9) 11. Serving on the Software Developer Forum under IBPSA-USA TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Pre-Proposal: Building Energy Modeling Guidelines .................................................................. 3 2 Pre-Proposal: Energy Modeling Certification Improvements ..................................................... 5 3 Pre-Proposal: Energy Modeling University Program Improvements ........................................ 8 4 Pre-Proposal: Energy Modeling Online Training Courses .......................................................... 9 5 Pre-Proposal: BEM Market Opportunities and Sizing Study .................................................... 11 6 Pre-Proposal: BEM Awareness Campaign ................................................................................... 14 7 Pre-Proposal: Building Energy Modeling “Knowledgebase” ................................................... 17 8 Pre-Proposal: Building Energy Modeling “Database” ............................................................... 21 9 Pre-Proposal: Quality Control (QC) Framework ......................................................................... 24 1 Pre-Proposal: Building Energy Modeling Guidelines Problem Statement Building energy performance modeling is used to evaluate design options and develop the business case for incorporating energy efficiency. Modeling supports achieving performance targets established by owners at the building level or by policy makers at sector level. However, modeling services suffer from a lack of credibility due to misguided expectations and inconsistencies in applied methods and lack of reproducibility. Proposed Solution To address these issues, we propose to develop a comprehensive set of modeling procedures that cover key modeling applications and that we can communicate to the market. We envision that this set of procedures, possibly identified as Methods & Processes Guidelines, would address energy modeling for new building design, retrofit applications, and operation, as well as the over arching process for modeling throughout the building lifecycle. The guidelines would address specific procedures for: Using performance baselines Incorporating quality assurance procedures Using data sources for calculating input values Developing operating assumptions Benchmarking Completing model calibration Performing uncertainty analysis Defining the appropriate level of detail Communicating results Documenting results Potential Impact Creating guidelines that outline industry-accepted modeling procedures would help improve modeling consistency and reproducibility. The effort would also lead to streamlining methods, standardization and automation. This will reduce modeling time and improve overall quality. The guidelines will outline how modeling can be used to inform design and improve operation on an on-going basis to maximize achieved performance. Thus, the development of modeling guidelines would support using modeling as a tool to achieve low energy-use performance targets throughout the building life cycle. Key Deliverables A modeling methods and processes White Paper – The paper will outline a methods framework that includes grouping common elements across applications. In addition, the paper will recommend the methods approach – e.g. should it be implemented through: 1) a step-wise process, 2) a standardized procedure, or 3) automated through software. Work Plans for creating the Guides - The work plans will stem from the white paper framework and recommendations for the method framework and approach. The work plans will serve as the scope of work for the request –for-proposal (RFP) to complete the work. Building Energy Modeling Guidelines – These may be developed as four volumes – new construction, operation, retrofit and modeling throughout the building life cycle. Implementation Plan Many steps have to occur before the development of these guidelines: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. White paper published Identification of funding sources Commitment of funding dollars Development of Work Plans RFP release Contractor hired Guidelines published Guidelines referenced by applications Items identified for standardization being standardized Items identified for automation being automated Table 1: Building Energy Modeling Guidelines Implementation Plan Action Items Champion (Partners) Timeframe Budget White Paper Tom White, Ellen Franconi and the M&P Group Draft June 2011, publish Aug 2011 Volunteer efforts Identify funding for the M&P Guidelines Joe Huang -ASHRAE TC 4.7; IMT, M&P Group Sept 2011 Volunteer effort Mar 2012 $35 K Within 2 yrs $250 K TBD TBD Methods and Processes Guidelines ASHRAE TC 4.7, IMT, M&P Group, others? ASHRAE TC 4.7, IMT, M&P Group, others? Field testing M&P Guidelines DOE?, GSA? Work Plan/Outline Immediate Next Steps Develop white paper outline (pending initial outline from E. Franconi, outline for review by T. White) Review and comment on outline (M&P Group) Contributors identified (M&P Group) Write white paper (M&P Group, possible other contributors) 2 Pre-Proposal: Energy Modeling Certification Improvements Problem Statement It is difficult for potential customers and employers to assess the skill level of an energy modeling practitioner. There are currently two professional certification programs available, but none have gained real traction in the industry, nor are they able to distinguish between skill levels. The energy modeling community feels that we need to improve these programs before they can truly serve as an indicator for competency and skill. Proposed Solution Champion: ASHRAE’s Certification Committee Key Contact: Amy Musser As ASHRAE is championing this effort, and the energy modeling community has thus far shown more support for the ASHRAE BEMP exam, we propose that the BEMP certification exam becomes the basis for a single certification exam that all major organizations support and endorse including: ASHRAE AEE AIA IES USGBC IBPSA-USA DOE This single certification exam should be revised to have more stringent application requirements, including requiring professional recommendations. A deck reference will be developed that will feature more practice problems and include a clear definition of skill sets and expertise for energy modelers as they progress along a career path (the ‘Black Belt’ concept). A marketing campaign should be launched to publicize and create demand for this certification. Beyond marketing the value to practitioners, this campaign should target potential customers and employers so that they are aware of this certification as a means of distinguishing among the field of energy modelers. After demand for this certification has grown, the value of adding a second, lower level of certification (similar to the Engineer In Training label) should be examined. Longer term, actual hands-on energy modeling problems should be added into the verification exam, utilizing graphical interfaces to track an examinees problem solving process on tool neutral scenarios. Separate from the BEMP certification, more building energy analysis content should be incorporated into the existing measurement and verification certification and training. Potential Impact If the above improvements were realized, the demand for, and valuation of, energy modeling services would increase. Potential customers and employees would have confidence in the skill and judgment of a certified energy modeler, and would be more likely to trust their services to inform the design. The career path for energy modelers would be more clear and rewarding, with opportunities for distinguishing their skills among their peers. Metrics Possible metrics for success include: A single certification program exists and is supported and endorsed by all major organization At least 50% of potential customers surveyed can identify the certification program for energy modelers and know where to look to find certified practitioners 100% of Summit attendees are BEMP certified by the end of 2011 The number of certified practitioners doubles by the end of 2011 Implementation Plan Table 2: Certification Implementation Plan Action Items Champion (Partners) Require professional recommendations for certification as prerequisite ASHRAE1 Marketing campaign: create demand for BEMP exam - 1st step: all applicable Summit attendees take exam Refine ‘Black Belt’ concept (levels of career progression for BEM) to 2-3 levels Develop desk reference for BEMP (with more practice problems and ‘Black Belt’ concept) Incorporate building energy analysis into Measurement & Verification certification and training Form single certification exam with buy-in from multiple organizations Develop actual hands-on problems for ASHRAE BEMP exam2 AEE ASHRAE (RMI) RMI (ASHRAE) ASHRAE, IBPSA-USA EVO (IBPSA-USA, ASHRAE) Timeline Budget 6 mo. $3 K 1 yr $30 K 6 mo. $3 K 1 yr $40 K 1-2 yrs $20 K 1-2 yrs $60 K 2-3 yrs $100 K ASHRAE (AEE, AIA, IES, USGBC, IBPSA-USA) ASHRAE (IBPSA-USA, IES, AIA, Lynn G. Bellenger, current ASHRAE president will work with the ASHRAE BEMP certification committee to get this addressed. 2 Both the BEMP and BESA exams currently are 100% multiple choice questions 1 Action Items Champion (Partners) Timeline Budget RMI) Revise BEMP exam to more stringent and have requirements on par with AIA and PE Certification ASHRAE 2-3 yrs $60 K Consider expanding BEMP to a two-level certification (similar to EIT and PE) ASHRAE 3+ yrs ? 3 Pre-Proposal: Energy Modeling University Program Improvements Problem Statement There is a need for more experienced and skilled energy modeling practitioners. There are few Universities that offer a strong curriculum that raise the skill-set of architects and energy modelers. Education that is provided is not consistent across programs and doesn’t tie into certification programs. There is also a lack of available curricula for building energy modeling and building science (due to intellectual property restrictions). Proposed Solution We propose to form committee of to examine opportunities to improve higher education for building energy analysis and investigate the following: Agreeing to a common body of knowledge that forms a curricula for a degree in building science or building energy analysis Identify opportunities to develop and groom the next generation of faculty for such a program. This committee should be comprised of the current University level educators and program developers interested in the field of building energy analysis. Ideally, there would be a mix of Universities with well-established building science programs and those that are hoping to start new programs. Please visit this online form to volunteer to serve as the champion for this effort, or to indicate your interest in participating in this effort. Potential Impact If a collaborative committee was formed, this would be a key first step towards developing consistent scope and boundaries for a degree program that teaches this knowledge and provides a clear skill set. 4 Pre-Proposal: Energy Modeling Online Training Courses Problem Statement There is a need for more experienced and skilled practitioners. Not all energy modelers or other key design professionals have a solid understanding of building science/system design or know how to correctly translate building info into simulation inputs. Practitioners struggle with correctly interpreting the existing vast array of energy codes, performance baselines, and green building standards. Beyond that, key tasks like quality control and calibration are not widely understood among practitioners. Additionally, architects need more education around building science and the role they play in the energy consumption of buildings and there are limited comprehensive and formalized training opportunities for all industry professionals, especially building operators and commissioning agents. The training that is available often requires travel and can be cost prohibitive. Proposed Solution With the support of ASHRAE and IBPSA-USA, Rocky Mountain Institute has developed training course content for a one day Building Energy Modeling Workshop. This content covers: Building science and modeling fundamentals ASHRAE Performance Rating Method Modeling Best Practices Modeling Support Tools Using modeling effectively through an integrated design Measurement and verification and calibration The next step is to turn this material into online webinars and training courses that can be made freely available to industry professionals. Then, additional materials will be developed from expert practitioners to form a webinar series that targets other industry professionals such as: Architects Property managers Building commissioning agents Building operators Potential Impact These online training opportunities could help industry professionals develop the knowledge and experience to effectively use BEM within an integrated design process, and also throughout the operation of the building, to lower building energy use. With an educated, trained and certified workforce, customers and other stakeholders have confidence in energy modeling results, which are now more reproducible and defensible. Architects would have a free resource to learn more about the role they should play in this process, and get a primer on how buildings use energy, with a focus on architectural design decisions. Key Deliverables Free, online training courses and webinars for a variety of energy modeling professionals Implementation Plan Table 3: Online Webinar/Training Courses Implementation Plan Action Items Champion (Partners) Timing Budget Translate existing BEM Workshop materials into webinars IBPSA-USA (RMI) 1 yr $20 K Gather additional training content and webinar materials from industry sources/volunteers. This content should be targeted at other professionals such as architects, building operators, commissioning (CX) agents, etc IBPSA-USA (RMI, USGBC) 2 yrs $40 K Create additional webinars and training courses for other professionals such as architects, building operators, CX agents, etc IBPSA-USA (USGBC) 2-3 yrs $150 K Launch and host webinars, make freely available IBPSA-USA (USGBC) 3 yrs $50 K 5 Pre-Proposal: BEM Market Opportunities and Sizing Study Problem Statement: Even though market demand has risen steeply over the past 10 years, there is still significant growth opportunity if, in the long term, value is driven not by only by codes and program compliance (documentation), but also by energy performance goals that use modeling to make informed decisions to ensure widespread low-energy building design and operation. Two major drivers dominate current market demand: 1. Building owner compliance with mandatory requirements for codes, standards, disclosure and labeling requirements (both federal and local) 2. Building owner desire to meet requirements for certification or financial incentives (i.e. tax incentives and LEED, utility incentive programs) While these drivers have helped BEM to enjoy a market uptake in the last decade, emphasis on “box checking” degrades modeling’s true potential value. Most models are purchased to answer, “How many LEED points can my building achieve? Does my building qualify for this specific incentive?” Owners and decision-makers perceive modeling to be an add-on cost that does not bring real beneficial information into the design process, building operation processes or energy efficient building systems. As a result, there are a wide range of efficiency-related decisions that could be informed by quality energy modeling, but are not. Proposed Solution The reasons and extent to which energy modeling is used over the next 10 years isn’t just a matter of what will spontaneously or inevitably happen. This industry can take deliberate action to generate more demand in areas we think are beneficial. The first step is identifying what areas these are. We propose a study to: Identify the market opportunities for using BEM to inform a range of efficiency-related decisions, from appliances to systems, buildings, campuses, regions, and the whole nation. Segment the major opportunities by market context. Consider: o Commercial & institutional, buildings, residential buildings, industrial buildings, and non-buildings o New & renovated buildings, existing buildings, tenant spaces Identify BEM’s clear value proposition in all of these different applications, tailored to each level of breadth (i.e. individual building vs. regional) and market context. Identify the top stakeholders and decision makers for each proposed application. Broadly assess these markets in terms of potential large-scale energy and energy cost savings, opportunities for competitive advantage and profitability, incentives required to seed demand, workforce skills and capabilities required to implement, and barriers to adoption. The future Steering Committee (formed by the Market Drivers and Customer Demand breakout group at the BEM Innovation Summit) will manage the study. The Steering Committee will use the study to determine concrete next steps its members and partners can take to help generate more demand in identified high-priority market opportunities. Therefore, this study is intended to be general, open, and consensus-oriented so it can be a starting point from which industry stakeholders can, if desired, develop more detailed internal analyses. Results from the report (especially stakeholder-specific value propositions for proposed uses for BEM) will be distributed to a primary audience of current and potential BEM customers, including federal and local government, utilities, and building owners. By engaging these individuals with an educated assessment of “what’s possible,” we can lay a foundation for expectation and demand around these improved BEM applications. The study should also be shared with a secondary audience of stakeholders including software and tool makers, service providers and energy modelers. Potential Impact This study will provide ammunition (in the form of clear value propositions, quantified potential for energy and financial rewards) for the Steering Committee’s future work with key stakeholders to ensure incentives are aligned to support the best-case uses for energy modeling. Metrics We will know this study is successful if it clearly defines future BEM markets in a general way and articulates the benefit, risks, and opportunities in engaging in each of them. We will know it has met its objective of providing the Steering Committee with actionable information when the Committee has successfully identified specific next actions for stimulating demand and demand incentives for selected market opportunities. On a broader scale, to ensure a high level of dissemination to the reports’ secondary audience of stakeholders, the Steering Committee should track online report downloads. Other marketing metrics and indicators will be identified as part of item four in the Implementation Plan below. Key Deliverables This Market Opportunities and Sizing Report will include: Expansion and completion of the “Potential Future Market Drivers in the Ten-Year Horizon” table of the Market Drivers and Customer Demand breakout group summary from the BEM Innovation Summit Post Report Clear value proposition for BEM in each proposed application. What question will BEM help to answer? What is the tangible benefit of including BEM in the process? How does this address the largest concerns of key stakeholders? Assessment of each market opportunity/proposed application in terms of: o o o o Potential impact, through large scale energy savings and cost savings Resource and incentives requirements to seed demand Barriers to adoption Potential timeline Suggested Implementation Work Table 4: Market Opportunities and Sizing Report Implementation Plan Focus Area 1. Set up criteria and framework for report 2. Conducts research and write report* 3. Devise a strategy for and executes a marketing plan for the report Intent To ensure the completed report will serve the needs of the Steering Committee. Would involve understanding of the primary and secondary market audience to ensure the report format and content will resonate. To generate a quantified and qualified market sizing and assessment of different modeling uses over the next 10 years. To get the report widely distributed, to determine success metrics and track distribution Funding Required Timeframe $5,000 - $20,000 1 month $100,000-$200,000 6 months $10,000-$40,000 2 months * The Steering Committee shall consider the use of a 3rd party organization to guide and/or conduct sections of the market study, (i.e. McGraw Hill, McKinsey). This could lend integrity to the report results (ensure results aren’t perceived as biased), and allow the Committee to capitalize on the 3rd party’s reputation and network of partners to cast a wide net and achieve high visibility. Immediate Next Steps Obtain funding for the report. 6 Pre-Proposal: BEM Awareness Campaign Problem Statement Building energy modeling can play a supporting role in a wide range of energy efficiencyrelated processes, and can provide beneficial value to a diverse population of potential customers. Yet the current capture rate of potential business for building energy modeling is small. Modeling is only used in a fraction of its potential applications, and by a small population. This is largely because: Many potential customers are unaware that modeling services exist or can play a role in their decision-making process Many potential customers have misguided expectations of what modeling can and should provide for different applications The energy modeling industry has suffered damage to its credibility. Because of a combination of historical inconsistency and unknowing misuse of results (both on the part of practitioners and customers), many potential customers do not have confidence in energy modeling results. As a result, we are missing great opportunities for the use of modeling to support widespread adoption of low energy building design and operation. Proposed Solution We propose a coalition of industry partners (i.e. ASHRAE, IMT, IBPSA, USGBC, AIA, BOMA, DOE, RMI) to launch an awareness campaign targeted at potential customers to: 1) Clearly communicate the value proposition for including building energy modeling in a variety of applications, 2) Arm potential customers with case studies that demonstrate the tangible benefit modeling has brought to different “real” projects, and 3) Teach potential customers when and how to incorporate modeling into their decision-making processes. A successful awareness campaign can improve the credibility of the building energy modeling industry, and increase demand for energy modeling to benefit potential customers and the built environment. Launching a campaign through a coalition of industry leaders allows us to: Leverage our collective partnerships to reach a greater number of potential customers Leverage the reputation of key partners to increase credibility Deliver a unified, clear message to potential customers. Potential Impact A successful campaign can help building energy modeling to more effectively support lowenergy buildings by: Increasing market demand for the most impactful uses of energy modeling Giving potential customers the data they need to address skepticism and justify investment in modeling Arming potential customers with the information they need to demand the proper use of energy modeling services Key Deliverables Key deliverables from this awareness campaign will include: Written campaign strategy that o Identifies the key targeted audiences of the campaign o Understands the motivations and barriers to using energy modeling faced by those target audiences o Identifies key organizations and individuals with whom the coalition should partner o Identifies the message (i.e. case studies, content) we will be delivering to the target audience o Identifies the best way to reach our target audiences (i.e. media, sites, publications, events) o Identifies the metrics by which we will judge the success of the campaign Online case study database that aggregates BEM success (and “failure”) stories that can provide content for the campaign. The database can live on existing industry leader websites (i.e. content could go on RMI’s Retrofit Depot website– www.retrofitdepot.org) Each case study should identify: o The purpose of the model. What question did this model answer? o The key stakeholders in the decision-making process o The process: What tools were used? What was the method/approach/schedule? How did stakeholders interact with the energy model? o How the results from the model were used to inform the decision-making process. What was implemented? How does this help support adoption of low-energy building design and operation? o Any verified data from the design and operation of the building or system that was modeled o Lessons learned Website, publications, and other media products identified in the campaign strategy (may include periodic update of products as well) Periodic tracking and report out of success metrics Proposed Implementation Work Table 5: BEM Awareness Campaign: Proposed Implementation Work Focus Area Intent Funding Required Timeframe 1. Champion (TBD) to spearhead creation of formalized Coalition To form an industry alliance to deliver a credible, unified message (and data) to potential customers < $5,000 2 months 2. Coalition (or coalition-hired marketing expert) creates Campaign Strategy To develop an intentional, concise, and measurable campaign for a targeted audience $5,000 - $15,000 2 months 3. Coalition identifies, collects data for, writes, and compiles case studies into a Database To aggregate BEM success (and “failure”) stories that can be drawn from to provide content for the campaign $10,000 - $20,000, plus ongoing fees Originally 6 months to launch, updates ongoing 4. Coalition creates websites and other media products To convey the content in the most impact venues identified for the targeted audience $30,000-$50,000, plus ongoing fees (concurrent with #3) Originally 6 months to launch, updates ongoing 5. Coalition periodically tracks success metrics of the Campaign To understand the success of the campaign and continually course correct and improve $10,000-$15,000, plus ongoing fees Ongoing Immediate Next Steps Select a champion to form the campaign coalition Solidify partnerships with interested parties 7 Pre-Proposal: Building Energy Modeling “Knowledgebase” Problem Statement Today, there is no coordinated body of knowledge to support the everyday decisions of energy modeling practitioners. As a result, energy modelers waste time searching for information and create inaccuracies by constantly devising new approaches for modeling everything from simple envelope constructions to complex HVAC systems. When seeking answers to specific modeling questions, a practitioner may conduct an Internet search, post the question on a building simulation list-serve, call a service helpline supported by the software provider (if it exists), or most likely, ask a more experienced colleague. The information gathered from these sources will vary greatly, and he or she may not even uncover the fact that somewhere, someone has likely already addressed this question and devised an acceptable approach, or at least a launching point. There is a need for expanding access to and vetting existing knowledge of building energy simulation strategies to save everyone time and money, while also improving the quality and consistency of energy modeling. Proposed Solution To remedy the problem of poor accessibility to information, we propose the creation of an industry “knowledgebase” — a new hub of expert-rated building simulation information that is continually updated to include new building science and simulation resources. We do not intend for this knowledgebase to substitute for building science curriculum or training, but rather propose this as a convenient, organized, and searchable access point to the thousands of already existing resources about building simulation. Given the current needs and the expected growth of the building simulation industry, it is important to create a proper foundation for cataloging and rating the quality of existing resources, as well as new information that is sure to accumulate in greater quantities in the coming years. The knowledgebase will primarily serve as a resource to practitioners who are constantly in need of supporting information to continue their learning and to validate their modeling approaches. But, it could also evolve to include resources for policymakers and entrepreneurs hoping to better understand building simulation and its evolution. In addition, software developers could begin to integrate context-specific information from the knowledgebase directly into their software (e.g. link users to specific resources in the knowledgebase for more information). The proposed approach is three-fold: 1. Develop a framework and collect, catalogue, and rate existing energy modeling resources 2. Identify and prioritize key gaps in existing resources 3. Fill the knowledge gaps through research and documentation efforts Phase 1: Develop Framework & Collect, Catalogue, and Rate Existing Information As a first step, the structure of the knowledgebase will need to be developed by expert website and/or database experts with input from energy modeling practitioners and content experts. In tandem with creating an intuitive, accessible, and expandable structure, a separate team will need to begin collecting and cataloguing the vast amounts of dispersed information ranging from software documentation to ASHRAE papers to university research outputs to in-house developed tips and tricks. An expert-information organizing entity should drive this gathering and cataloguing, with guidance from building simulation practitioners. The last step in the first phase will be to develop a mechanism for assessing and monitoring the quality of information, which should be based on a crowd-sourcing model where users can rate the information and contribute their comments. Phase 2: Identify and Prioritize Gaps in Existing Information As information is gathered, efforts to identify major knowledge gaps can begin. A non-profit, a consulting group, or a university could execute this mammoth literature review. A prioritized research or “needs” list should be developed based on the literature review and posted on the knowledgebase so that prominent industry organizations, national laboratories, non-profits, and university building science programs can prioritize their efforts and alert others when they choose to tackle issues. Phase 3: Maintain and Integrate Knowledgebase In the short-term, some of the gaps that were identified could be filled by documenting known, but not yet written-down information from experts in the field. In the long-term, the knowledgebase needs to take a rigorous academic approach to building simulation resources to ensure we aren’t cutting corners or simplifying solutions to the point of inaccuracy. Information developed out of university research should be connected to the knowledgebase. Similarly, industry technical reports, white papers, and publicly funded research must be easily linked. Policymakers need to be made aware of the resource and incorporate provisions that publicly funded research must be added to the knowledgebase. Potential Impact Collecting, vetting, and improving existing knowledge resources will help to address two key challenges in the modeling community—the lack of credibility and the limited time for critical thinking. Practitioners will spend less time searching for relevant information and/or reinventing the wheel, thus leaving more time to reflect on results and identify design opportunities. Higher quality and more trusted information will serve as references for modeling approaches. Together, these improvements will increase the usefulness of energy models and the impact they have on low energy building design. Metrics The success of this new energy modeling knowledgebase will ultimately be reflected in improvements to the quality of building energy models. However, that direct link is hard to make. Thus, we could measure the indirect impact of these efforts in these ways: Number of users/visits Time spent on knowledgebase Survey results from users regarding usefulness Frequency with which new data is added Quantity of contributions by “expert” modelers Eventual references or inclusion within building rating systems Quantity of state/local requirements for adding information from publicly funded research Implementation Plan IBPSA-USA will champion the initial stages of this effort, as the organization is already pursuing the creation of the BEMBook wiki, which aims to be a centralized, vetted body of knowledge for energy modelers. IBPSA-USA will need to coordinate this work with any other existing knowledge gathering efforts, as well as solidify interest from potential implementation partners and funders or investors. Ultimately, a non-profit organization or small business (either new or existing) will need to “own” the knowledgebase and take responsibility for the development and maintenance of it— a multi-year and possibly multi-million dollar effort. Knowledgebase development should be conducted in collaboration with the development of the Building Energy Modeling “Database” (see Section 8) in order to take advantage of synergies and to minimize redundant efforts. Table 6: High-level "Knowledgebase" Implementation Plan Phase Champion Estimated Timeframe 1. Develop Framework & Collect, Catalogue, and Rate Existing Information IBPSA-USA (key contact: Joe Deringer/ Suzanne Saucy) 2yrs+ 2. Identify and Prioritize Gaps in Existing Information University program, consulting firm, or nonprofit (commissioned by IBPSA-USA) 6mo 3. Maintain and Integrate Knowledgebase Long-term “owner” of knowledgebase On-going Potential Supporting Partners SBSE PIER IFMA BOMA BPI CBE DOE GSA NBI AIA RMI Potential Funding Sources Google Foundation Institute For Building Efficiency Energy Foundation Penn Buildings Hub DOE Immediate Next Steps To get this concept off the ground, the champion of this effort will need to write 1) a project proposal to obtain funding and 2) a Request for Proposal that fleshes out comprehensive shortterm and long-term action items, which they will send out to various contractors. This alone will require a $10 – 30k investment and should be completed within the next 6 months. 8 Pre-Proposal: Building Energy Modeling “Database” Today, energy modelers turn to a variety of resources to determine the numerous inputs required to generate a model. Even at detailed design stages, many input values are not clearly defined and modelers must make assumptions to fill in the gaps. While some sources of operational building data currently exist, they often do not contain data that is granular enough or that is in a useful format for modeling inputs. In some cases, such as unique building types, high-level data is not even available. The information that is available is not centralized, and thus is time-consuming to locate and utilize. Proposed Solution Building energy modelers need better data sources to inform modeling inputs that they typically assume. The proposed solution is the creation of a public, centralized resource that hosts granular operational building data, beyond just energy use. The vision is that data from existing commercial buildings helps to inform inputs for the modeling of new buildings, as well as retrofits. This database will be largely composed of measured field data from individual buildings that practitioners can be use to inform modeling inputs such as operating schedules, air infiltration rates, plug load data, and process load data. Initially, the practitioners will use the database as a reference to generate better inputs. In the future, the energy modeling community can use more sophisticated and rigorous statistical methods and data transformation rules to auto-generate inputs based on information in the database (as opposed to them simply using the data to inform non-reproducible solutions). The proposed approach involves three main phases of work: 1. Create database strategy and structure 2. Collect and analyze currently available data 3. Establish partnerships and mechanisms to gather future data Phase 1: Create Database Strategy & Structure As a first step, expert website and/or database experts will develop the structure of the database with input from energy modeling practitioners and content experts. This group will need to determine the types and formats of data to include in the database, as well as investigate issues related to liability, privacy, accessibility, and proprietary information. During this phase, the mechanism for adding information to the database should be established and data quality requirements should be defined. A mechanism for allowing users to rate the information, such as a Wiki or Yelp model, should also be developed. Phase 2: Collect and Analyze Currently Available Data Once the structure has been established, the database can start to be populated with data from existing sources, which could include other databases with measured data, Energy Star Portfolio Manager, and Energy Service Companies (ESCOs), among others. When enough information has been added, statistical analyses can be conducted to gauge the quality of data and to start establishing typical ranges for the modeling inputs. The inclusion of both raw data and meta-data for each input point will be essential for statistical analysis and for keeping track of where the data came from. Other fields of study, such as sociology and psychology, should be called upon to collect and analyze data regarding occupancy schedules and occupant behaviors that affect energy usage in buildings. Phase 3: Establish Partnerships & Mechanisms to gather Future Data Over the long-term, information should be consistently added to the database. To enable this regular updating, partnerships should be established with entities that are continually generating or collecting data, such as utilities, ESCOs, and property managers. In the future, data could even be imported directly into the database from building management systems. Partnerships should also be established with software developers to identify ways that the data can inform modeling tools. For example, when typical ranges for each input are established, this sensitivity could get built in to the software. Also, context-sensitive links to the database could be included in the software tools to enable semi-automated inputs. With this functionality, a modeler would have access to the most current information, and be able to import the data directly into the model from the database. Potential Impact Practitioners build energy models from a set of assumptions about a building. By using this resource to inform modeling inputs, energy modelers will be able to make better assumptions with more confidence. Further, because more modelers will be referencing the same data, consistency of inputs will improve. Metrics The usefulness of a new operational building energy database will ultimately be reflected in improvements in the quality of building energy models. However, that direct link is hard to make. We could measure the indirect impact of these efforts in these ways: Number of users/visits Time spent on database Survey results from users regarding usefulness of database Frequency with which new data is added Quantity and quality of new contributions Eventual references or inclusion within building rating systems Quantity of state/local requirements for adding information from public buildings or buildings whose BMS/data monitoring efforts are publicly funded Implementation Plan The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) will serve as the champion of this effort and will solidify interest from potential implementation partners and funders or investors. Over time, NREL will “own” the database and take responsibility for the development and maintenance of it—a multi-year and possibly multi-million dollar effort. Database development should be conducted in collaboration with the development of the “Knowledgebase” (see Section 7) in order to take advantage of synergies and to minimize redundant efforts. Table 7: High-level "Database" Implementation Plan Phase Champion Estimated Timeframe 1. Create Database Strategy & Structure NREL (key contact: Nick Long) 1yr 2. Collect and Analyze Currently Available Data NREL (key contact: Nick Long) 6mo 3. Establish Partnerships and Mechanisms to Gather Future Data NREL (key contact: Nick Long) On-going Potential Supporting Partners SBSE PIER IFMA BOMA BPI CBE DOE GSA NBI AIA RMI Potential Funding Sources Google Foundation Institute For Building Efficiency Energy Foundation Penn Buildings Hub DOE Immediate Next Steps To get this concept off the ground, the champion of this effort will need to write 1) a project proposal to obtain funding and 2) a Request for Proposal that fleshes out comprehensive shortterm and long-term action items, which they will send out to various contractors. This alone will require a $10 – 30k investment and should be completed within the next 6 months. 9 Pre-Proposal: Quality Control (QC) Framework Problem Statement What is a good energy model? Is it one accompanied by a long report, one with lots of inputs changed from defaults, or one created by an experienced modeler? While these factors can be indicators of quality, absolute quality for building energy modeling is closely linked to “reproducibility.” Given the lack of automation, the looseness around modeling assumptions, and the variations in modeling software, today it is virtually impossible for different modelers to create energy models from the same information set and arrive at similar outcomes. Today, basic Quality Control (QC)—used here to mean the review of energy models by an expert other than the original modeler—is not well practiced in the field of building energy modeling. Oftentimes, the original modeler is also the entity tasked with checking the model. The “checks” are not standardized and are often simply quick calculations to verify that global model results (such as energy intensity, peak demand, and relative energy end-uses) are within reason. If external reviewers do probe into models, it is challenging to tell which inputs are pure assumptions versus those based on actual design data. The overall uncertainty level of models appears static throughout the design process resulting in design teams assuming a schematic design model is just as accurate as a construction document model. As a result, building energy modeling results appear cryptic, inaccurate, and are not perceived as a reliable indication of building performance. Proposed Solution While the lack of reproducibility is the fundamental long-term problem to address, there are many easier short-term actions that will also incrementally improve modeling. We focus this proposal on addressing this lower hanging fruit through creating a standardized QC framework. Longer-term solutions will need to address data transformation rules and accompanying software improvements that semi-automate many inputs and move the industry towards greater reproducibility. In the short-term, there is a basic, yet urgent need for standardizing the approach to quality control for building energy modeling. We focused this proposal on creating a general process for the QC-ing of models, including the development of standard QC reports for inclusion in all energy modeling software. The general approach or “Guide to Building Energy Modeling QC” should be developed to serve as interim guidance while the reports and QC feature enhancements are developed and incorporated into user software. Initial ideas for useful QC reports include a standardized smart “echo” report that simply shows all the inputs that you have entered. A more sophisticated version of this echo report may even be able to auto-generate a design intent document, allowing for a bottom-up check of the assumptions against the top-down owner’s requirements. There is also a need to develop a standardized output report across all simulation software platforms. Solutions are also needed to better expose assumptions within models. Meta-data output reports could make comparisons to norms, including how far off a particular value is from the standard deviation and how many of the inputs have been changed from the default values. For outputs, variability and uncertainty ranges associated with inputs should be carried through the calculations so that the output can also carry an overall uncertainty range. We summarize the characteristics of the proposed QC reporting framework in the table below. Table 8: QC Reporting Framework Input Detailed Data Smart “Echo” Reports Meta-Data Expose Assumptions Comparisons to Norms: Standard Deviations Uncertainty Quantity of Default vs. Customized Values Output Standardized Output Reports Design Intent Documents Output Variability and Uncertainty In addition to standardizing specific reports, the group that develops the report templates may also make recommendations for other software features that could aid with QC. These may include providing a location for the modeler to summarize the model characteristics within the model, allowing a modeler to document public or private comments for each input, and creating a feature that graphically shows the location of weather file versus the actual building location. Phase 1: Create QC Guide & Identify Needed QC Reports As a first step, an expert-reviewed, high-level guide to quality control, covering everything ranging from what inputs and outputs the reviewer should verify to what questions the client should ask of the modeler, must be documented. This documentation could become the industry standard “Guide to Building Energy Modeling QC.” ASHRAE Technical Committee (TC) 4.7 would be ideal to champion this effort as part of the larger effort to create comprehensive modeling guidelines (see Section 1). In addition to creating the guide, the champion of this effort will need to first brainstorm and then hone in on the most critically needed QC reports that should be embedded in modeling software. Other software feature enhancements that could aid with QC should also be identified. Phase 2: Develop Standard QC Reports Once a plan is identified, ASHRAE TC 4.7 must develop the content for the standard QC reports. Software developers should play an integral role in this process to ensure that the report content is practical and desirable to deliver. Phase 3: Incorporate QC Reports into Software Tools Once the report content is identified and vetted, software developers will need to embed the industry-vetted reports into their tools. In addition to the new QC reports, other features that could enhance QC efforts should be considered. Potential Impact Creating a standard approach to QC with standard QC reports will help address model quality and transparency. The guide will help modelers more effectively self-check their work, while the reports will streamline the review process for third parties. It will be easier for reviewers or even design teams to judge the quality of modeling results and to understand what results mean. Time spent on quality control will be more valuable and more revealing. More transparent and accurate models will be the end result, thus addressing concerns about the quality and credibility of energy modeling. Metrics The success of the QC guide and reports will ultimately be reflected in improvements in the quality of building energy models. However, that direct link is hard to make. Thus, we could measure the indirect impact of these efforts in these ways: Number of downloads/purchases of QC Guide Survey results from users regarding usefulness of new reports Use of reports in LEED documentation or other rating systems Use of reports in design intent documents Implementation Plan To kick off the creation of the QC guide and identification of needed QC reports, the champion of the effort (possibly ASHRAE TC 4.7) will need to write a detailed project description that fleshes out comprehensive short-term and long-term action items (coordinated with any other existing QC efforts). The next steps include developing the guide, identifying the QC reports, and eventually working with software developers to develop the precise report content. Table 9: High-level QC Framework Implementation Plan Phase Champion Estimated Timeframe 1. Create QC Guide and Identify Needed QC Reports ASHRAE TC 4.7 1yr 2. Develop Standard QC Reports ASHRAE TC 4.7 6mo 3. Incorporate QC reports into Software Tools IBPSA-USA Software Developer Group (key contact: Tim McDowell) 6mo Potential Supporting Partners SBSE PIER IFMA BOMA BPI CBE DOE GSA NBI AIA RMI Potential Funding Sources Google Foundation Institute For Building Efficiency Energy Foundation Penn Buildings Hub DOE Immediate Next Steps To get this concept going, it needs to be added to the docket for ASHRAE Technical Committee 4.7. The QC Framework work also needs to be coordinated with efforts to develop broader energy modeling guidelines (see Section 1).