Groundwater:
the Political Black Box
Comparing Yemen and Ethiopia
NWO – CoCoon Conflict and Cooperation in Natural Resources
‘Water is politics’
‘There is no shortage of water but there
is the lack of political will to act’
‘There is no water crisis but a crisis of water
governance’
Groundwater in the political domain
The Political Black Box – paradoxes
• ‘Politics’: nobody speaks highly of it and
few aspire to be part of it
• We even like to keep it out of governance
• But then we talk about ‘political will to act’
• And we only vaguely know who are the
politicians
Groundwater in the political domain
Are these the politicians?
Yemen:
We are like
advisors that
no one listens
too
Ethiopia
We only
had to say
yes
Groundwater in the political domain
What we like to do:
• Move ‘into political black box’
• Better understand role of political players
and formal institutions
• Understand groundwater management is
influenced by it
• Better understand what and who to target
in discussion on sustainable use,
management or fair access
Groundwater in the political domain
Understanding politics in groundwater
• Understanding governance and politics of
groundwater
– How political domain is organized
– How it interrelates with institutions
– How it affects use, access and management
• Comparing political systems
–
–
–
–
Interest and positioning of different stakeholders
Use of different sorts of power
Capacity to act
Implications
• Final observations
Groundwater in the political domain
Directive control over the mechanisms of
the state (budget, resource allocation,
implementation)
What politicians do
Part of a larger political enterprise
Politics
Groundwater
use and
management
What happens on the ground:
Effective regulation of access and usage
Measures to enhance supply or influence
demand
Groundwater in the political domain
Institutions
Laws, policies, government
organizations, financing
mechanism, stakeholder
organization, ..
Directive control over the mechanisms of
the state (budget, resource allocation,
implementation)
What politicians do
Part of a larger political enterprise
WHAT AREA IS COVERED
BY GOVERNANCE?
Politics
Groundwater
use and
management
What happens on the ground:
Effective regulation of access and usage
Measures to enhance supply or influence
demand
Groundwater in the political domain
Institutions
Laws, policies, government
organizations, financing
mechanism, stakeholder
organization, ..
Groundwater
•
•
•
•
•
Invisible
Unknown quantities
Autonomy of the operators
Recent use
Anarchy
Groundwater in the political domain
Comparing two countries:
ETHIOPIA
YEMEN
Developmental state
Oligopolist autocracy
Party leadership
Personalized leadership
Early but accelerated development
Recognized overuse
Leadership transition
Arab Spring
Groundwater in the political domain
Groundwater
use and management
• Leadership interest
• Orientation of
government support
• Stimulating gw use
• Regulating access
• Regulating use
• Stimulating recharge
Groundwater in the political domain
Political domain:
• Ruling system
• Mechanisms of control
• Link to formal democracy
• Centre vs region
Institutional domain:
• Link to government
..
Institutions
• Link to water users
• Implementation of
development
Yemen
Groundwater in the political domain
Yemen
• Groundwater irrigation up to from 17,000
ha to 400,000 ha in 40 years
• Imbalance 7-50% for different basins
• Increasing bore failure – 40% of new
drinking water system
• Abondonement of land in fragile coastal
areas
• Yet no interest from political leadership
Groundwater in the political domain
Groundwater in the political domain
Yemen
• Political system (up to 2011)
• Personalized leadership> no capacity to discuss
issues
• ‘thriving on chaos..’ – liability of instability –
security as a business
• ‘he who rides a lion…’ > diesel subsidies and
massive transfers
• Soft power > elite patronage exceeds any other
spending and little trickle down (35% calorific
shortage and Gini Coefficient at 0.44)
• Development efforts: primarlily externally
supported
Groundwater in the political domain
Groundwater in the political domain
Political mechanisms and implications
for groundwater
• Direct financial transfers
– Creates new waterlords
– Exceeds all else
– Whatever rhetoric – funding for groundwater management
miniscule
• Diesel subsidies
– 20% of budget, one-third for agriculture – dwarfs funding for
groundwater management
– Patronage
• Jobs and ghost jobs (30-40%)
– Yet key organizations underresourced
• Priviliges in access in public funds
- Affect priorities: smalls dams as prestige projects
Groundwater in the political domain
Institutional domain
• Considerable but largely parallel effort to
build up modern system of government –
with external support
– Enlightened laws and plans
– Much support directed at national institutions
– Considerable institutional fragmentation
Groundwater in the political domain
Management on the ground
• Neglible political interest
– More profitable pursuits (security business)
– Different interests (case of diesel subsidies)
– Limited span of local control/ political capacity
– Limited attention span
• Only local management
– Good examples
– Areas of neglect
Groundwater in the political domain
Groundwater in the political domain
Karaba
Groundwater in the political domain
Wadi Dela
Groundwater in the political domain
Political leadership (after 2011)
–
–
–
–
–
–
Still evolving – pre-empts the agenda
Survival mode: limited capacity to handle issues
Stage managed security issues: ‘thriving on chaos part b’
Institutions more politicized (earlier was not necessary)
External development funding reduced > less regulation
Downsizing largesse – reduced diesel subsidy which hurts,
even destabizer
– National dialogue game changer:
•
•
•
•
Towards federal and civil state
Dismantling bureau of tribal affairs
Water challenges recognized
Yet other transition priorities
Groundwater in the political domain
Groundwater in the political domain
Arab Spring 2011: Political Crisis 2011 in Yemen and energy factor
Groundwater in the political domain
Study Objective
This study aims to analyze the links and interactions between diesel
subsidies, groundwater pumping and cropping pattern within political
domain.
Ethiopia
Groundwater in the political domain
Ethiopia – its untapped potential
• Groundwater mainly for drinking water
• Very shallow groundwater (< 8 m) out of picture
for long time – yet widespread unused, unknown
potential
• GTP2: 2 M ha under groundwater irrigation (now
200,000 ha) – politics of high targets
• Little small holder private development
• For long time handholding mode – now new
programs
• Undercapitalized rural economy and insecure or
Groundwater
in the political
domain
blocked
access
to high potential areas
Groundwater in the political domain
Ethiopia
• East Asian model: developmental state
• Dominant party democracy
–
–
–
–
–
Inner political circle
Develops functional alliances
Use of BPR and balanced score cards
Many individuals reluctant to join
Plans and visions abound – curse of high targets
• Strong presence at local level: certain type of implementation
power
– Voluntary labour; engagement in committees; local courts
– Relations with higher-ups
– ‘Peasant subordinization’
• Corruption is modest
Groundwater in the political domain
Political mechanism and implications
for groundwater
• Hegemonistic system – no other centre of
initiative
• ‘Curse’ of high targets: too much political will
leads to faulty execution
• ‘Curse’ of high targets: mechanism of control
• Uneasiness with private development
• Emerging conflicts because of increased use –
management mechanism not yet articulated
Groundwater in the political domain
Groundwater in the political domain
Raya/Kobo GW wells not
operational?
Many of the drilled wells are not
operational for a number of reasons:
 Purchase of pumps.
 Distribution systems.
 Power supply.
 Determination by the middle level
decision makers (at that time).
Community concerns on GW
irrigation in Raya-Kobo valley
 Farmers feel that with the ongoing extensive groundwater
drilling, the government could
give their land to private
investors?
Groundwater in the political domain
33
Groundwater in the political domain
Institutional domain
• No regulation yet – may/ should come
• Limited capacity – compared to targets
• Blocked access to high potential areas
Groundwater in the political domain
Management on the ground
• Development mode – much government
controlled/ facilitated
• Problems of access
– Local land grabbing
• No regulation – but emerging conflicts
Groundwater in the political domain
Political systems = after 2012
• Continuity
• Broad based and decentralized leadership
– resilient to change
• Use of corruption card to confirm new
equations
Groundwater in the political domain
Comparing political systems
and groundwater management
in Yemen and Ethiopia
in summary
Groundwater in the political domain
Characterizing the political domain
Yemen
Ethiopia
Political domain
Ruling system?
Mechanism of control within
ruling system?
Mechanism of control with
population at large?
Link to formal democratic
system?
Centre – region relations?
Autocratic
Limited political attention span
Intervening priorities
Co-opting different elites, especially
tribal and security
Different forms of patronage
Partly through intermediaries (sheykhs
and regional influential). Little
government presence at village level.
Parliament is advisory
No unified system
Groundwater in the political domain
Developmental state
Dominant party coalition democracy
Obsession with targets
Control within party system
Party discipline
Democratic unity
Local political government extends to
village level, strongly dominated by
dominant party
Land ownership by state, though
gradually transferred
Parliament is advisory
Power and budget with regions –
balanced by democratic centralism
through party system.
Link to government
institutions?
Link to water users?
Implementation of
development activities?
Corruption?
Relation political domain to institutional domain
Yemen
Ethiopia
Power structure outside formal
Party and government inseparable
government
Key government positions to party
Key appointment on professional merit
members
– but new tendency towards political
High staff turnover
appointment
No linkage
Some local management by local
initiative
Supported by thinly spread bureaucracy
(NWRA)
Implementation through special
arrangements are effective (Social
Development Fund, projects)
Existing bureaucratic systems
undermined
Important patronage mechanism
- undermines moral leadership or
‘ideational power’
Groundwater in the political domain
No regulatory mechanisms in place
Strong party presence at local level
Implementation through existing
bureaucracy
Frequent use of campaign mode with
drawbacks
Modest
Relation political domain and actual groundwater use and management
Yemen
Ethiopia
Leadership interested in
Low - more rewarding or pressing
Very much: to broad base development
groundwater?
priorities
Part of agenda of developmental state
It has no capacity to sustain interest in
difficult issues
Orientation of government
Money wise marginal support to
Orientation on public investment rather
support?
efficient irrigation/ water saving
than facilitating small holder private
Agricultural Development and Fisheries investment
Production and Promotion Fund –
Focus on high end (deep wells)
Persistent bias of investing in storage
infrastructure (submersible pump
and not in recharge or efficient water
systems)
use
There are efforts, but not systematic, to
promote shallow hand dug wells for
small holder farmers
Stimulating use of
Diesel subsidies
Very few private parties with sufficient
groundwater?
Largesse invested in wells: there is
capital
much wealth to invest in deep wells
Controlling access to land
Some elite land grabbing in coastal
Some grabbing of land and water by
and water?
areas
poltical in-groups (incl NGOs,
In some areas confusing claims
universities)
New land development
Licensing procedure not effectively
In some areas run-off rights not water
implemented
rights
Regulation?
Law is more setting the context – direct
Well licensing system but not uniformly
implementation is sensitive
applied, little overuse
Strong examples of local governance
Management to be triggered still
Stimulating recharge?
Investment in recharge through projects Increasing investment in watershed
development using organized voluntary
labour
Groundwater in the political domain
Comparison - conclusions
• Larger political system more important than
water governance
• Rather than at political will look at political
capacity – ability to use different types of power
– Hard enforcement power
– Soft negotation power
– Soft ideational power
• Look at what happens at local level rather than
focus on central institutions
Groundwater in the political domain
Yemen – different types of power
• Yemen – central leadership is weak and is
in perpetual balancing act
– No hard enforcing power
– No soft ideational power
– Only soft negotation power but> not much
geared to groundwater management or
development as such
Groundwater in the political domain
Ethiopia – different types of
power
• Ethiopia – party and government strongly
integrated at different level
– Hard enforcement power
– Soft ideational ‘can do’ power
– No soft bargaining power – creating little
scope for development by private initiative
(uncertainty on tenure, monopoly on rural
investment, no acceptance of farmer
entrepreneurs, upward accountability)
Groundwater in the political domain
Yemen – way forward
• Build on decentralization and move to
federal state
• Local governance – support the process
and make it part of overall governance
• Find the right champions i.e. young
sheikhs
Groundwater in the political domain
Ethiopia – way forward
• Open up to private initiative
• Start managing equal access and
sustainable management – mechanisms
are there
• Discuss local access/ land grabbing issues
Groundwater in the political domain
Some final remarks
• Much attention for governance but – Power/ politics left out of the equation
– Politics narrowed down to ‘political will’ – but
no attention for (1) larger and obscure game
of interest and (2) political capacity/
leadership (we may overstate ability (3)
assumes omnipotent ‘deus ex machina’ – if
only there was political will – leads to
disengagement
Groundwater in the political domain
The need to ‘politicalize’ the
governance debate
• Find the space
• Understand how much/little can be
changed
• Politicalize the governance debate
Groundwater in the political domain
Can we have a different type of
politics
• More geared to resource management
rather than ‘security’
• Is hard power better? It creates soft
ideational power as well and it helps to
deliver…
Groundwater in the political domain