Population studies
and theories
Real Development is about people…
• …or is it time for them to die?
• During a discussion about
overpopulation between Dr Susan
Blackmore (a neuroscientist) and
Professor John Gray (of the
London School of Economics), Dr
Blackmore said on BBC Radio: “the
fundamental problem" facing the
planet today is that "there are too
many people". Professor Gray
agreed. Then Dr Blackmore
declared: "For the planet's sake, I
hope we have bird flu or some
other thing that will reduce the
population, because otherwise
we're doomed."
Doomed…to develop?
• Are neo-Malthusians – such as dr. Blackmore right or
wrong about population growth?
• Are they, like Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) and his
followers, making the schoolboy error of treating
population growth as the only variant, and everything
else – food production, progress, human ingenuity – as
fixed entities?
• Malthusians are motivated by severe pessimism about
humanity's ability to come up with solutions to its
problems, and by the base idea that disease is the only
thing that can sort us out.
Envisioning the future
• Whether neoMalthusians
or followers of
the transition
theory are
right,
indicators are
key.
Hierarchy of statistica Indicators by Domain and Sub-domain
Highest
High
Desirable
Demography: Population growth
Aanual population change
Crude birth rate
Crude death rate
Natural change rate
Population density
Demography/health: Fertility and reporduc tive health
Total fertility rate
Mean age of motherhood
Mean age at first birth
…..
Attitude towards condom use
Environment and Energy: Consumption and Production patterns
Energy use per unit of GDP
Annual energy consumption per capita
Solid waste disposal
…………….
Employment and labor: Labor supply
Labor force particpation rate
Employment to population ratio
Inactivity rate age 25-54
Human development
and economic growth
Economist tend to look at
the GDP of a country in
order to measure it’s
development.
What can we say about
economic development
and
human
development?
Human development
and economic growth
Combine indicators in order to get a more complete picture
Economic indicators
HDI:Multi-indicators of development
HDI:Multi-indicator of development
Goalposts for calculating the HDI
max.
min.
Life exp. at birth
Adult literary rate
Combined gross enrollment ratio(%)
GDP per capita (PPP US $)
85
100
100
40,000
25
0
0
100
0.950 and over
0.900–0.949
0.850–0.899
0.800–0.849
0.750–0.799
0.700–0.749
0.650–0.699
0.600–0.649
0.550–0.599
0.500–0.549
0.450–0.499
0.400–0.449
0.350–0.399
under 0.350
not available
HDI:Multi-indicators of development
Life expectancy index =
(73-25) / (85-25) = 0.80
Education index =
2/3 adult literacy index + 1/3 Gross
enrollment index = 0.93
EI = (96.5-0)/ (100-0) = 0.965
GEI = (85-0)/(100-0) = 0.85
GDP index =
log (25,164) – log (100) / log (40,000) –
log (100)
Result: HDI = 0.88 for Aruba
– HDI of Aruba, 2000 till 2007
– Female HDI: 0.90, male HDI
0.86
`HPI-1: Multi-indicator of poverty
HDI measures average achievement, HPI-1 measures deprivations in the three basic
dimensions of human development captured in the HDI .
A long and healthy life – vulnerability to death at a relatively to early age, as measured by the
probability at birth of not surviving to age 40.
Knowledge – Exclusion from the world of reading and communications, as measured by the
adult illiteracy rate.
A decent standard of living, as measured as the % of the population without sustainable
access to an improved water source and the % of children under weight for age.
HPI-2: Poverty-index for richer countries
HPI-2 measures deprivations in the same dimensions as the HPI-1, and also captures social
exclusion. It reflects deprivations in four dimensions:
A long and healthy life – vulnerability to death at a relatively to early age, as measured by the
probability at birth of not surviving to age 60.
Knowledge – Exclusion from the world of reading and communications, as measured by the % of
adults lacking functional literacy
A decent standard of living, as measured by the % of people below the income poverty line
Social Exclusion – as measured by the rate of long-term unemployment (12 month+)
Population study: demography, Growth and
structure of Human Population
Demography is the study of population, its
increase through births and immigration, and
its decrease through deaths and emigration.
In a broader sense, demography is the study of
population change and of the impact of these
changes on the world around us.
Population study. Two main theories: Malthus
and the transition theorie
Thomas Robert Malthus was a British
economist and demographer, whose
famous Theory of Population
highlighted the potential dangers of
overpopulation.
In his famous An Essay on the
Principles of Population, Malthus
stated that while 'the populations of the
world would increase in geometric
proportions the food resources
available for them would increase only
in arithmetic proportions‘
Two types of checks hold population
within resource limits: positive checks,
which raise the death rate; and
preventative ones, which lower the
birth rate.
Population study. Two main theories: Malthus
and the transition theory
The demographic transition
(DT) is a model used to
represent the transition from
high birth and death rates to
low birth and death rates as a
country develops from a preindustrial to an industrialized
economic system.
In stage one, pre-industrial society, death
rates and birth rates are high and roughly
in balance.
In stage two, that of a developing
country, the death rates drop rapidly.
In stage three, birth rates fall due to
access to contraception, an increase in
the status and education of women, a
reduction in the value of children's work,
During stage four there are both low birth
rates and low death rates. Birth rates
may drop to well below replacement level
Population study. Malthus versus Transition?
World agriculture 2030:
Global food production will exceed
population growth
Food security and environmental problems will
remain serious in many countries - new FAO
study
ROME, 20 August 2002 -- Globally there
will be enough food for a growing world
population by the year 2030, but
hundreds of millions of people in
developing countries will remain hungry
and many of the environmental problems
caused by agriculture will remain serious,
according to the summary report of
"World agriculture: towards 2015/2030", a
study launched by the UN Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO).
Criticism
Some critics of Malthus, like Karl Marx, argued
that Malthus failed to recognize the potential of
human population to increase food supply.
Malthus is accused by many to have failed to
comprehend man's ability to use science and
technology to increase food supply to meet the
needs of an increasing population.
Population study. Source of data?
Population statistics are usually collected via:
censuses,
surveys,
civil registration systems,…
The accuracy of the data depends on the source, and the methods
in place to secure the reliability of the data.
For civil registration for example official documents
Surveys need to be weighted to the total population, an
accurate sample frame containing the total population is
necessary;
Censuses and Surveys need to be controlled and edited, valid
value checks, consistency checks, and routing checks, and maybe
imputations.
Population study: Crude birth rate.
Crude Birth Rate: the number of life births per
1000 population
CBR =
No. of Births x K
Tot. Pop.
Unit
Total population
Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
1991
1995
2000
2005
2009
67,382
81,160
91,064
102,178
107,138
17.2
17.8
14.3
12.5
11.4
Population study: General Fertility Rate
General Fertility Rate: the number of life births
per 1000 women aged 15-49
GFR =
No. of Births x K
Number of women aged 15-49 years
Calculate the General Fertility
rate for the year 2009 in Aruba:
The number of women aged
15-49: 28552
Number of children born: 1251
1995
2000
2005
2009
81,160
91,064
102,178
107,138
Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
17.8
14.3
12.5
11.4
General Fertility Rate
62.4
49.9
46.6
43.8
< 15
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
15-19
4.9
5.2
4.1
3.9
20-24
12.4
9.9
10.0
9.3
25-29
11.4
11.1
10.0
9.8
35-39
4.4
3.7
3.7
3.5
40-44
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.7
45-49
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
Total population
ASFR
Population study: Crude death Rate
Crude Death Rate: the number of deaths per 1000 population in a given year
No. of deaths x K
CDR =
Total population
Is the Crude Death Rate higher in 2009, 2000 or in 1992 ?
1992:
2000:
2009:
Population
Deaths
70,629
91,064
107,138
424
531
623
Total population
Crude Death Rate (CDR)
1992
1993
1994
1995
2000
2005
2009
70,629
76,742
78,450
81,160
91,064
102,178
107,138
6.0
5.2
5.5
6.2
5.8
4.7
5.8
Population study: Natural increase & infant
mortality rate
Natural increase is the surplus of births over deaths for a particular period
NI = Number of births in a given year – number of deaths in a given year.
Infant Mortality rate:
Infant mortality rate is the number of deaths of infants under one year of age, per 1000
live births, in a given period.
IMR =
No. of deaths of infants under age 1 x K
Total live births
Total population
Infant M ortality Rate (IM R)
1992
1993
1994
1995
2000
2005
2009
70,629
76,742
78,450
81,160
91,064
102,178
107,138
2.3
2.2
3.8
0.7
3.1
4.8
4.1
Population study: Life expectancy
Life expectancy is an
estimate of the average
number of additional years
a person may expect to
live, based on the agespecific death rates for a
given year.
Age
0
1
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
e(x)
70.01
69.40
65.45
60.49
55.57
50.92
46.66
42.27
37.68
33.03
28.54
24.20
20.06
16.26
13.10
10.44
8.11
5.68
3.87
4.03
3.23
%
Poor health
5.42
5.49
5.79
6.18
6.60
7.15
7.81
8.53
9.42
10.42
11.58
12.90
14.34
15.84
17.51
19.50
23.02
27.11
38.74
35.00
16.67
Age
0
1
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
e(x)
76.02
75.71
71.87
67.02
62.02
57.16
52.53
47.71
43.05
38.31
33.55
28.88
24.35
20.52
16.74
13.14
10.37
7.52
5.49
4.73
3.57
%
Poor health
9.36
9.47
9.96
10.65
11.43
12.29
13.28
14.44
15.81
17.36
19.09
21.00
22.96
24.75
27.63
30.75
34.16
36.45
41.52
42.79
35.00
Population study: Life expectancy and
health condition
Based on the Census 2000 we calculated the percentage of males and females living
in poor health. The percentage of females in poor health is higher than that of males,
just because they outnumber the males in life-expectancy
Population study: Migration
Two types of international migration: immigration and emigration
IR =
No. of immigrants x
K
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Total population
IR =
No. of emigrants x
K
Total population
Migration = immigration – emigration
4500
Immigration Emigration
Total population
4469
2091
70629
7278
2101
76742
3287
2463
78450
4094
2299
81160
4950
2211
84883
4007
2130
87720
3416
2762
89183
3344
3082
90135
3535
3368
91064
3386
2602
92676
3076
2543
93945
3516
1998
96207
3858
1649
99109
3756
1469
102178
2341
1722
103488
2157
1839
104523
2885
2053
105469
IR
63.3
94.8
41.9
50.4
58.3
45.7
38.3
37.1
38.8
36.5
32.7
36.5
38.9
36.8
22.6
20.6
27.4
ER
29.6
27.4
31.4
28.3
26.0
24.3
31.0
34.2
37.0
28.1
27.1
20.8
16.6
14.4
16.6
17.6
19.5
Population study: Migration
What can we deduct from this graph?
. Population study: population growth
Population growth is the result of mutations with regard to births, deaths, immigration
and emigration
PGR =
(Births – Death) + (immigration – emigration)
Tot. Pop.
Calculate: 1) death rate, 2) birth rate, 3) natural growth rate, 4) emigration rate, 5)
immigration rate, 6) net migration rate, 7) net population growth
. Population study: population indicators
1961
1. Population by Age and Sex
Changes in population structure and
composition affects consumption pattern,
health-expenditures, educational system,
labor force, pension-systems,
infrastructure, housing, marriages, etc.
90-94
Male
Female
80-84
70-74
60-64
50-54
To monitor changes and capture the
intensity of changes, we can use
indicators, such as:
40-44
30-34
20-24
•Ageing index
10-14
180
160
140
120
80
100
60
40
20
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
•Youth dependency ratio
180
0-4
Population
2010
Population by Age and Sex
•Old-age dependency ratio
90-94
Male
Female
80-84
•Dependency ratio
70-74
60-64
•Potential Support Ratio (PSR)
50-54
40-44
•Parent Support Ratio
30-34
20-24
10-14
180
160
140
120
80
100
60
40
20
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0-4
. Population study: population indicators
Population growth is the result of mutations with regard to births, deaths, immigration
and emigration
Age
1961
1972
1981
1991
2000
2010
All ages
0-14
15-60
15-64
60+
65+
80+
Total
Ageing index
Youth dependency ratio
Old-age dependency ratio
Dependancy ratio
Potential Support Ratio (PSR)
Parent Support Ratio
Sex Ratio
22,003
28,592
29,550
2,604
1,646
284
53,199
21,016
32,591
34,331
4,301
2,561
341
57,908
15,615
38,953
40,704
5,744
3,993
560
60,312
16,263
43,438
45,564
6,845
4,719
1,101
66,546
20,887
59,163
62,637
10,097
6,624
1,307
90,147
1,095
3,564
3,850
940
654
110
5,599
11.8
74.5
5.6
80.0
18.0
0.1
96.5
20.5
61.2
7.5
68.7
13.4
0.1
96.3
36.8
38.4
9.8
48.2
10.2
0.1
94.7
42.1
35.7
10.4
46.0
9.7
0.1
97.0
48.3
33.3
10.6
43.9
9.5
0.1
92.2
85.8
28.4
17.0
45.4
5.9
0.1
89.0
Source: Population and Housing Census 1961 - 2010
. Population study: population indicators
. Population study: population indicators
Population study: Life expectancy in Aruba
and other parts of the world
Population study: example use of Census
Labor force participation rates, for
males and females