Columbia University
Center for
Hazards and Risk Research
Overview
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
October 25-26, 2001
Center for Hazards and Risk
Research
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Organized April 2001
Part of Columbia Earth Institute
Based at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Partners include The Wharton School,
Bogazici University, London School of
Economics, others.
October 25-26, 2001
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
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Organizing Themes for
Hazard and Risk Studies
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Science in service of Sustainable International
Development
– Reducing Vulnerability / Building Resiliency
– Methods and Mechanisms of Risk Assessment and Risk
Management
– Technological and social measures of risk
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Multiple Hazards, Aggregate Risk
– Interactions, triggers, and amplification
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Human activities that generate risk
October 25-26, 2001
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
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Organizing Themes for
Hazard and Risk Studies (cont.)
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Community Knowledge System
– Assessments of Predictive Skill in S&T
– Assessment and communication of risk
– Assessment and communication of uncertainty
– Understanding decision strategies and mechanisms, and
their inputs and outcomes
– Feedbacks for integrated studies
– Appropriate use of technology
October 25-26, 2001
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
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What Is the relationship between “Hazard”
and “Risk”?
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“Hazard” is a process which
has potential human
impacts.
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“Risk” is a function of both
“hazard” and accumulated
human assets.
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“Concentration of assets”
contributes to quantitative
measures of risk.
Source: USGS, CIESIN
October 25-26, 2001
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
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Risk is a Cultural Quantity
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Different societies have different asset exposures
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System effects can amplify the evaluation of risk
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The study of risk mixes hazards (physical
science) and vulnerability (engineering, social
science)
October 25-26, 2001
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
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Technical Risk vs. Social Risk
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Asset census and Asset
fragility
Integration over many scales
Complexities due to
interdependencies not
included
Not normative
Measured in replacement
and repair costs (or loss of
use)
Useful for cost-benefit
analysis
Risk transference as an
economic cost
October 25-26, 2001
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Measures social and cultural
disruptions
Measured in risk tolerance in
relation to a self-defined
state of well being
Highly normative
Social and cultural
interdependencies critical
Useful for choice analysis
Issues of risk transference
harder to quantify, and hinge
on moral arguments
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
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Prediction and Predictability
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New science is available to improve
predictability of events and their impacts
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New science is both empirical and modelbased
October 25-26, 2001
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
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Stress ‘climate’ is a manifestation of plate tectonics, but simple models of deformation are
surprisingly good at predicting seismicity. (source: J. Deng, Ph.D. Thesis 1996, Columbia)
October 25-26, 2001
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
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Research Model
Basic
Research
Physical Science/Engineering
Social Science
Integrated
Research
Risk Assessment
Risk Management
Extension/
Applications
October 25-26, 2001
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
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Fig. 1: Conceptual Illustration of Some Hazards and Their Process, Impact,
and Management Interactions
Primary Hazards
Processes
- Sol id Earth
Processes
- Weather/Cli mate
Processes
Primary Impacts
- Structural (e.g.,
Dam Failure)
- Deaths
- Water Quali ty
- Earthquakes
- Severe Storms
- Water Pol lution
Events
- Hum an Acti vity
(e.g., Land-Use)
Risk
Secondary Hazards
Management
Secondary Impacts
- Landsl ides
- Floods
Research Investment:
New Knowledge
Hazard Reduction
and/or Externali ties
Source: K. Boyer
Risk Reduction
- Structural Design
- Pol icy (Zoni ng,
Land Use,
Regul ation)
- Insurance
- Emergency
Response
- Economic
- Hum an Health
- Ecological
Impact Reducti on
and/or External iti es
Multi-Hazard Vul nerabi lity Index: Refl ects or il lustrates 1) Physical Processes and Human Impacts Plus
2) Resource Al locati on and T rade Offs Among Hazard Mitigation/Management Options
October 25-26, 2001
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
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Lamont-Doherty
Earth Observatory
SEAS
Structural Response,
Chemical Exposure, Built
Environment and System
Response
Earth Processes
Underlying Earthquakes,
Landslides, Volcanoes
IRI
Climate/Extreme Weather
Processes and Severe
Storms, Floods, Droughts
Hazards Research Center
EESJ
Media
Core Research
Multi-Hazard Processes
Case Studies
Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Index
Risk Assessment/Management
Center for the
Decision Sciences
CSPO
Science Policy
CIESIN
Decision Making
CSTEP/SIPA/
GSB/GSAPP
Public Health
Data Integration,
Spatial Data Warehousing,
Decision
Support Tools
Regional Studies, Economics,
Urban Planning, Policy,
Epidemiology
Illustration: K. Boyer
October 25-26, 2001
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
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Center Programmatic Components
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Basic Disciplinary Research
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Integrated Research
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Research Extension
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Training Extension
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Graduate and Other Formal Education
October 25-26, 2001
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
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Improving Resilience
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Emergency Response
Hardening Built Environment
Hardening Social Constructs
– Political
– Economic
– Cultural
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Alternative Development Paths
– Responsible Planning
– Altered States
October 25-26, 2001
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
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Single Hazard Model
Hazard
Impact
Risk
Action
Knowledge areas incomplete, research required
October 25-26, 2001
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
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Single Hazard Model
Tectonic Stress Model
Fracture Mechanics
Fault Topology
Earthquake
Process Model
Event Genesis
Wave Propagation Model
Anelastic structure
Near-surface structure
October 25-26, 2001
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
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Single Hazard Model
Ground Motion
Structural Design
Impact
Soil-Structure Interactions
Process Model
(Built Environment)
Structure Dynamics
Primary and Secondary
System Response
October 25-26, 2001
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
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Single Hazard Model
Categorization
Risk and
Risk Perception
Tolerance Levels
Asset Concentrations
(space and time)
Resiliency
October 25-26, 2001
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
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Multiple Hazard Model
(1st Generation)
Hazard
Impact
Risk
Action
Hazard
Impact
Risk
Action
Hazard
Impact
Risk
Action
October 25-26, 2001
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
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Multiple Hazard Model
(2nd Generation)
Hazard
Impact
Risk
Hazard
Impact
Risk
Hazard
Impact
Risk
October 25-26, 2001
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
Action
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Multiple Hazard Model
(3rd Generation)
Hazard
Impact
Risk
Action
Hazard
Impact
Integrated
Hazard
System
October 25-26, 2001
Integrated
Impact
System
Risk
Integrated
Risk
System
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
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Improving Resilience:
Knowledge System Approach
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“Product” orientation widely used to match
scientific output to end-user needs.
Product design at provider level often
assumes end-user knowledge is capped.
Elevating community knowledge base will
produce higher-level outcomes
User-mediated science and technology
outputs
October 25-26, 2001
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
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Third Generation Multiple Hazard
+ Information Technology
Hazard
Impact
Risk
Action
Hazard
Impact
Integrated
Hazard
System
October 25-26, 2001
Risk
Integrated
Impact
System
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
Provider/User
Community
Interaction Model
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Community Interaction Model
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Links observational, modeling, simulation,
prediction science
Links science to technology (engineering
solutions)
Links solutions to risk management
community
If near-real-time, links response and
emergency management communities.
October 25-26, 2001
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
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Community Feedback Loops
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Feedback between sectors important for
modulating basic S&T output.
Knowledge base kept high by combination of
push and interactive technologies.
Heightened curiosity hastens application of
new S&T advances in the field.
Move beyond virtual knowledge product
generation.
October 25-26, 2001
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
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IT Requirements for Implementation
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Spatial data integration
Monitoring and near-real-time data assimilation of time series
Data QC, preliminary analysis, archiving, management for research and
products
Physical descriptions: Characterizations and models
Modeling and simulation codes and results
Scenario building, description, and dissemination
Data integration from other components
Servicing decision pathways and community interactions
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Mitigation planning
Emergency response
Capturing feedbacks
Formal and informal education
Community outreach
Products (push, interactive, user-mediated)
October 25-26, 2001
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
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Education and Outreach
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Certificate and Degree Programs
Student and investigator exchange
Integrated Project studios
Professional awareness
Public/political awareness
Identifying stakeholders
Links with digital media.
October 25-26, 2001
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
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Highlights: Turkey
Increased earthquake risk in Istanbul
• The 1999 Earthquake Sequence in Northwest Turkey points to
the high likelihood of even more damaging earthquakes in the
Marmara Sea (Istanbul) region, during the next few decades.
• The Center for Disaster Management (CENDIM) of Bogazici
University and Columbia are initiating an alliance in research
and education dealing with earthquake hazard risk reduction.
Will extend Columbia’s current scientific work in the Marmara
region and expand into structural and socio-economic risk
assessment and risk management activity.
October 25-26, 2001
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
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From: Parsons, Tom, Toda, Shinji, Stein, Ross S., Barka, Aykut, Dieterich, James H., Heightened
Odds of Large Earthquakes Near Istanbul: An Interaction-Based Probability Calculation Science
2000 288: 661-665
October 25-26, 2001
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
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Fig. 1. (A) Stress change caused by earthquakes since 1900. Shown
are the maximum Coulomb stress changes between 0 and 20 km depth
on optimally oriented vertical strike-slip faults (44). The assumed
friction coefficient is 0.2, as has been found for strike-slip faults with
large cumulative slip (45, 46). A 100-bar deviatoric tectonic stress
with compression oriented N55°W (47) is used, under which
optimally oriented right-lateral faults strike E-W except along the
rupture surface. The 1993 to July 1999 seismicity recorded since
installation of IZINET (7) has uniform coverage over the region
shown. Calculated stress increases are associated with heightened
seismicity rates and with the future epicenter of the 17 August 1999
Izmit earthquake (indicated by star); sites of decreased stress exhibit
low seismicity.
(B) Izmit aftershocks are associated with stress increases caused by
the main rupture [first 12 days from IZINET (7)], such as the Yalova
cluster southeast of "Y," and the occurrence of the 12 November 1999
Düzce earthquake. Faults: Y, Yalova; P, Prince's Islands; M,
Marmara; I, Izmit.
From: Parsons, Tom, Toda, Shinji, Stein,
Ross S., Barka, Aykut, Dieterich, James H.,
Heightened Odds of Large Earthquakes Near
Istanbul: An Interaction-Based Probability
Calculation Science 2000 288: 661-665
October 25-26, 2001
CENDIM/CHRR URM Workshop
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From: Parsons, Tom, Toda, Shinji, Stein, Ross S., Barka, Aykut, Dieterich, James H., Heightened Odds of
Large Earthquakes Near Istanbul: An Interaction-Based Probability Calculation Science 2000 288: 661665
Figure 4. (A) Observed and modeled transient response to stress
transfer. The 13 M 6.8 North Anatolian earthquakes for which the
stress at the future epicenter was increased by 0.5 bars are plotted
as a function of time. The earthquake rate decays as t-1 in a manner
identical to aftershocks, as predicted by (29-32).
(B) Calculated probability of a M 7 earthquake (equivalent to MMI
VIII shaking in greater Istanbul) as a function of time. The probability
on each of three faults is summed (43). The large but decaying
probability increase is caused by the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake.
"Background” tracks the probability from earthquake renewal;
"interaction" includes renewal and stress transfer. Light blue curve gives
the probability had the Izmit earthquake not occurred.
October 25-26, 2001
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