Water Management: Water Supply Forecasting (Lettenmaier)
Improving water resources management in the western
U.S. through use of remote sensing data and seasonal
climate forecasts
Lead PI:
Dennis P. Lettenmaier (U. of Washington)
Co-Is:
Sooroosh Soorooshian (U. of California-Irvine)
Andrew W. Wood (U. of Washington)
Anne Steinemann (U. of Washington)
Bisher Imam (U. of California-Irvine)
Partners:
USDA NRCS National Water and Climate Center
Bureau of Reclamation
California Department of Water Resources
Water Management: Water Supply Forecasting (Lettenmaier)
Science / Applications Questions
The science and applications questions of the
proposed project are highly relevant to NASA
ASP Water Management element objectives:
1) Can advanced hydrologic prediction methods
that use state of the art climate forecasts and
snow remote sensing to update hydrologic
initial conditions result in improved seasonal
streamflow forecasts and in turn more
efficient water management in the snowmeltdominated rivers of the western U.S.?
2) Can the efficiency of water management in
the Klamath and Sacramento River basins be
improved through the use of real-time
estimates of crop water requirements, which
can be estimated accurately using remote
sensing data?
Water Management: Water Supply Forecasting (Lettenmaier)
Earth System Models
Land Surface Models:
VIC:
(1)
Land Surface Model
(2)
Data Assimilation Target
(3)
Watershed Hydrology
Coupled L-A-O Models:
(1)
NSIPP/GMAO
Predictions/Forecasts
Information products
Analyses
Seasonal Precipitation /
Temperature Ensemble
Forecasts
Streamflow Forecasts
Monthly Volumes
Summer Runoff
Uncertainties
Spatial Nowcasts &
Forecasts:
Earth Observations
Surface Temperature: Co-Op,
MODIS, GMAO hindcasts/forecasts
Decision Support
Systems, Assessments,
Management Actions
Snow Cover
Snow Water Equivalent
Soil Moisture
Runoff
Precipitation: Co-op, GMAO
hindcasts/forecasts
Evapotranspiration
Snow Cover: MODIS
Crop Water Demand
Reservoir Evaporation
Snow Quantity: NRCS Snotel,
CADWR Snow Pillow
Two tracks, in parallel for
research / operations:
Improved characterizations of:
(a) current hydrologic
conditions
Retrospective
nowcast/forecast
evaluation
(b) evolving water year outlook
Assessment of skill
contributed by ES Models
& Observations relative to
operational baseline.
Greater efficiency and reduced
uncertainty in water allocation
decisions
Decision Support Tools
VIC-OMS-WHFS Combo
In house BOR reservoir project
model (Klamath)
CADWR/SWP Delta
Coordinated Operations model
(at Joint Operations Center)
Improved communication of
uncertainties in decisionmaking
Reduced conflict over water by
stakeholders
Decisions / Actions
Water Banking (Klamath)
Risk Communication
Observations,
Parameters & Products
Quantitative and qualitative
benefits from improved
decisions
real-time (current)
nowcast/forecast
evaluation
Water Allocations for myriad
uses, WY Type declarations
Surface Radiation/ET/Temp:
MODIS
Value & Benefits
to Society
Increased confidence in federal
& state agency decisionmaking and policy
University of
Washington
Forecast
System
At UW, started testing
hydrologic uses of
real-time climate
forecasts in 2000, for
East Coast
Started producing
water supply forecasts
in 2001
Started testing snow
assimilation
techniques in 2003
Launched SW Monitor
in 2005
UW Hydrologic Forecast System
Snowpack
Initial
Condition
Soil Moisture
Initial
Condition
UW Forecast Approach Schematic
local scale (1/8 degree)
weather inputs
VIC Hydrologic
model spin up
NCDC met.
station obs.
up to 3
months from
current
1-2 years back
LDAS/other
real-time
met. forcings
for spin-up
gap
soil moisture
snowpack
INITIAL
STATE
streamflow, soil moisture,
snow water equivalent, runoff
Hydrologic forecast
simulation
ensemble forecasts
Observed
SNOTEL
SWE
Update
Assimilaton
ESP traces
CPC-based outlook
NCEP CFS ensemble
NSIPP-1 ensemble
25th Day, Month 0
VIC = Variable Infiltration Capacity macroscale hydrologic model
of Liang et al. (1994)
Month 12
UW Forecast System: Spatial Products
Precip
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06
Temp
SWE
Runoff
Soil Moisture
Streamflow Forecast Results: Westwide at a Glance
Streamflow
Forecast Details
Clicking the stream flow
forecast map also accesses
current basin-averaged
conditions
Flow location maps give access to
monthly hydrograph plots, and also
to raw forecast data.
Real-time
Daily
Nowcast
SM, SWE
(RO)
½ degree VIC
implementation
Free running
since last June
Uses data feed
from NOAA
ACIS server
“Browsable”
We are currently migrating the daily updating
Archive, 1915present
approach to finer resolution project domain
models
UW snow data assimilation activities
MODIS snow covered area assimilation test in Snake R. Basin
Interactions: NRCS NWCC
Since last year, we have exchanged nowcast/forecast results with
the NRCS National Water and Climate Center (head: Phil
Pasteris)
 Under a Memorandum of Understanding between NRCS & UW:
 UW provides forecast results and data as NRCS requests
 NRCS provides access to stream flow and climate data (primarily
via NOAA ACIS)
 NRCS has created a place for links to “experimental water supply
forecasts” from its official website. Currently the UW is the only
one, and they would like more!
 We generally attempt to schedule a “pre-forecast” conference call
just prior to NRCS coordination of forecasts with NWS RFCs, in
which we summarize our forecast outlooks and compare notes.
 In addition, there is a good deal of informal exchange.
Interactions: NWS
Via Kevin Werner of the West. Reg. Sci. Center, with support
initially from CBRFC, but now also CNRFC and PNRFC:
 Setting up 5 HEPEX* basins for evaluations of retrospective
forecasts by VIC (ESP, ESP-ENSO, CPC) with NWSRFS
retrospective ESPs (and with statistical forecasts). NRCS will
also be involved.
 Participation in NWS-led HEPEX (Hydrologic Ensemble
Prediction Experiment): e.g., Western US testbed on snow data
assimilation is led by:
 Frank Weber (BC Hydro), Kevin Werner (NWS), Tom Pagano
(NRCS), Andy Wood (UW)
Other interactions: U. Ariz / BuRec (Lower Colorado); CPC; NCEP; WA
State / BuRec (Yakima R.)
Water Management: Water Supply Forecasting (Lettenmaier)
Upper Klamath Basin
• UK Lake supplies
Klamath Project
irrigation
• competing uses:
instream flows,
hydropower, tribal
water rights
Feather R. Basin
• 16 dams, largest
Lake Oroville
• operated by DWR
for ag & urban WS
• competing uses:
flood control,
hydropower, wat.
qual., recreation, F&W
Domain
Feather R. Basin
Water Management: Water Supply Forecasting (Lettenmaier)
Approach / Tasks
Task 1: Klamath River forecast system enhancements (UW)
Tailoring components of WHFS to Klamath R. basin, increasing model
resolution to 1/16 degrees, implementing MODIS-SCA assimilation,
streamlining WHFS framework for acceptance in user environments
Task 2: Upper Klamath Lake net inflow calculation (UW)
Flow forecast impairment to reflect the effects of crop water use
(evapotranspiration) and reservoir evaporation -- both satellite-based -- and
also ungaged local runoff
Task 3: Forecast system implementation for Sacramento River (UCI)
Tailoring components of WHFS to CA DWR river basins, beginning with the
Feather R.; implementing MODIS-SCA assimilation, streamlining WHFS
framework for acceptance in CA DWR environment
Task 4: Forecast impairment in Sacramento basins (UCI)
Linkage of WHFS forecast products to CA DWR decision models (a sequence
starting with forecast impairment, and leading to water allocations)
Water Management: Water Supply Forecasting (Lettenmaier)
Approach / Tasks
Task 5: Forecast communication (UW/UCI)
Facilitate NWCC, USBR, and DWR review of the forecast system via reports
for regular, real-time forecast updates and any system upgrades; conference
calls to interpret the results, and, during the off-season, one-day workshops at
partner offices to evaluate forecast system performance and use.
Task 6: Retrospective assessment (UW / UCI)
Perform retrospective forecasts made in a manner consistent with real-time
operation, and evaluate changes in forecast skill due to incorporation of remote
sensing data, and ensemble climate forecasts.
Task 7: Transition to operations (UW / UCI)
Train operational staff and prepare documentation manuals that will enable
NWCC and DWR to operate the forecast system independently.
Water Management: Water Supply Forecasting (Lettenmaier)
Metrics
Forecast Accuracy and DSS Performance
Traditional accuracy measures and skill scores (on-going)
Operator-defined criteria that represent “not making mistakes” (years 2 & 3)
User acceptance and organizational assimilation
User perspectives on: forecast usefulness, ease of understanding,
compatibility with operations, presentation of probabilistic information (years 2
& 3)
Research team management
Journal articles, conference activity, prototype demonstrations, adherence to
task schedule (end of years 1, 2 and 3)
Water Management: Water Supply Forecasting (Lettenmaier)
Status
Tasks 1 & 3: Operationalizing the use of MODIS snow cover imagery
We are investigating pathways toward reliable real-time acquisition
of MODIS snow cover (maximum 1-day lag time).
It appears that Tom Painter at NSIDC will work with us to resolve
lag-time issues with their real-time product, and establish an
autoated pipeline for datasets.
Water Management: Water Supply Forecasting (Lettenmaier)
Status
Tasks 1 & 3: Streamlining / tailoring
system to operational environments
We have implemented 2 new forecasts
points in the Klamath R. Basin (on the
major tributaries to Upper Klamath Lake
as part of the westwide system).
Based on our calibration experiences,
we’re now re-implementing the models
for this approach at 1/16 degrees:
Water Management: Water Supply Forecasting (Lettenmaier)
Status
Tasks 1 & 3: Streamlining / Tailoring system to operational environments
Water Management: Water Supply Forecasting (Lettenmaier)
Status
Tasks 1 & 3: Streamlining / tailoring system to operational environments
NRCS NWCC is moving programmatically toward a USDA-ARS led
platform/effort called the Object Modeling System (OMS):
 After meeting with NWCC, we have opened an official
project “VIC Model” with OMS developers to port VIC into OMS.
 OMS appears to derive some genetic material from USGSMMS, which is used in tandem with RiverWare in a number of
places.
 http://oms.ars.usda.gov/
Water Management: Water Supply Forecasting (Lettenmaier)
Questions?