AMAZON KINDLE ECOSYSTEM ANALYSIS KEVIN CANGEMI EIS: SECTION 1 OCTOBER 10, 2011 PART 1: VALUE VISION The first e-book was published 1971 when an author typed the U.S. Declaration of independence and subsequently launched Project Gutenberg to digitize important cultural works. Although there was no significant market for e-books in 1971, Michael Hart, the founder of Project Gutenberg, acted on his vision to create a library of free, open format works for public consumption. Forty years later, a robust and rapidly growing commercial e-book market has finally emerged, led by Amazon with its popular Kindle series of e-readers and dominance in digital distribution. The technological advances in hardware suitable for e-readers, and digital distribution infrastructure took decades to develop with significant investment by multiple parties. As a result, e-books today offer a tremendous value proposition for consumers. By digitizing content, e-books simplify the purchase and storage of content, often at a lower price per book compared to similar hard or soft cover new releases. The superior price-to-performance proposition offered by e-books is likely to contribute to significantly increased consumer adoption over the next decade. PART 2: ECOSYSTEM MAP Amazon Kindle Ecosystem Consumer Content Creation • Direct publish Distribution • • • • • • Online direct purchase PC connection (USB) WIFI Whispernet (3G) Textbook rentals Amazon Prime Hardware • • Dedicated (Kindle) Tablet (Kindle fire) Software • • • • Proprietary e-Book file Multi-platform reader Digital rights management 3rd Party Software Developers 1 Distribution Content distribution has been the core of Amazon’s ecosystem. Amazon is the largest online retailer of books and other media, and all other ecosystem activities support its strength in bringing content to consumers. For example, Amazon has integrated WIFI into its Kindle devices and partnered with AT&T to bring 3G connectivity to Kindle devices, ensuring that consumers have access to purchase books from virtually anywhere. It has also developed a proprietary secure network, Whispernet, to facilitate content purchases. The Kindle device is designed precisely to consume content purchased from Amazon. Hardware Amazon produces a dedicated e-Reader version of the Kindle (these models function poorly as tablet computing devices). Amazon recognized its brand and distribution power and marketed a branded electronics device to support the retail sales of e-books to be consumed on the device. However, in September 2011 it extended its Kindle line to include a full color tabletstyle reader designed to facilitate the distribution of video content through its paid Amazon Prime instant video service. Software Amazon developed a proprietary e-book file format that was only supported on its Kindle series of e-readers. It sought to close the ecosystem in order to lock customers into its proprietary standards and solidify market power to dictate the economics both to the consumer and back through the value chain. Amazon later developed third party device applications that allowed users of android and iPad devices to read e-books in Amazon’s proprietary file format. Third party developers have also begun to create applications and operating system upgrades for the Kindle. The release of the android-based Kindle Fire should serve to boost third party software development for the Kindle. Content Creation Although Amazon does not create content, it has begun to roll the publishing of content directly into its ecosystem. Amazon launched Kindle Direct Publishing shortly after launching its first Kindle device in 2007. Kindle Direct Publishing allows authors to self-publish books to the Amazon Kindle Store. Authors are free to set prices on their books and Amazon pays a fixed percentage royalty to the author for each sale of the book. In effect, Amazon cuts the traditional publishers out of the transaction. 2 PART 3: An assessment of the strategy deployed to align the actors. Amazon followed an ecosystem construction strategy that was roughly similar to Apple’s strategy. In the late 1990’s the infrastructure to distribute music digitally and consume it on a portable device had not yet been developed into a viable market. Apple’s Innovation Strategy required as many consumers as possible to own portable digital music players and use them regularly. Since a digital player did not exist, Apple built it. A digital music distribution marketplace was a necessary complement to significantly increase the value of its iPod devices. Apple built that, too. To mitigate Co-Innovation Risk that resulted from its Innovation Strategy, Apple had to assume greater Execution Risk because it now had to develop hardware, software, and a marketplace to reinforce its emerging ecosystem. Today, Apple has largely continued with its vertically integrated, closed network distribution system that is driven by third party content creation. Amazon approached the development of the e-book market from a slightly different perspective. Whereas Apple’s core competency was in the design and manufacture of personal computers and other electronic devices, Amazon’s core competency was in the online retail distribution of content, particularly print books. Apple saw the marketplace complementing the device. Amazon saw the device complementing the marketplace. However, the basic strategic issues remained largely the same, although the perspective was reversed. Amazon’s Innovation Strategy required as many consumers as possible carrying an e-reader in their bags. CoInnovation risk was also the major ecosystem driver. The e-reader was the necessary complement to the digital marketplace to cement the value of the ecosystem. Without a suitable portable e-reader, the value of Amazon’s online e-book marketplace would be severely diminished. Since an established e-reader was not yet on the market (Sony’s first e-reader was launched less than one year earlier than the first Kindle), Amazon chose to mitigate the CoInnovation risk it faced in establishing a new ecosystem by vertically integrating into e-reader device design and manufacture. Just as Apple had done years earlier, Amazon also chose to trade Co-Innovation risk for Execution Risk. However, the Execution Risk was more moderate in Amazon’s case, given that it is probably easier to engineer a hardware device than it is to replicate the brand and online content distribution advantages that Amazon had accumulated over the past decade. Although the closed system strategy has the benefit of mitigating ecosystem risks and controlling the user experience, the closed system has its drawbacks as well. By vertically integrating Amazon now competed with potential third parties that could offer “best of breed” solutions in their respective segments of the ecosystem. It potentially alienates consumers and participants who are skeptical of Amazon’s market power extracted through control over the ecosystem. This may have inhibited valuable collaboration with outside parties. Amazon’s ecosystem strategy creates differing incentives for the parties involved. Amazon has a strong incentive to keep the system closed. As consumers forgo print books in 3 favor of e-books, Amazon’s supply chain and logistics based cost advantages begin to erode. In order for Amazon to retain its dominance in distribution of books, it needed to secure an alternative way to maintain its share of book distribution. Creating a closed system where books are published and distributed under its proprietary e-book format standards is Amazon’s attempt to sustain its market position as books go digital. Publishers have a different incentive. They have seen their competitive position erode first as large big box brick-and-mortar stores consolidated retail distribution, and second as online retailing gained share. Publishers have an incentive to see a system of more open standards gain acceptance so that one company or retailer does not obtain an advantage over the entire industry. Early on Publishers set quotas on the number of e-books Amazon could sell for any given title. This was a way for publishers to govern the emerging competitive threat. Some component manufacturers have strong incentives for Amazon to continue designing and manufacturing dedicated e-readers rather than tablet computers. E-ink, the component manufacturer that develops paper-like screens for Kindles, has been a critical CoInnovator alongside Amazon. The advancement of its screen technology enables significant improvements in the user experience of E-readers. Both Amazon and E-ink depend on each other as critical ecosystem partners in order to deliver increased value for consumers. Software developers have a strong incentive to see the ecosystem transition to a more open system. To date there has been very little application development on the Kindle platform. Amazon has intentionally constrained third-party development in order to retain control over the user experience of its relatively nascent devices. Software developers are eager to capitalize on third party application sales that would arise from a more open ecosystem. Content creators as a group have mixed incentives to participate in the e-book ecosystem. The most popular authors whose content is in strong demand are not likely to be affected by growth in e-books. Established authors with lucrative publishing contracts, however, may get pinched in a system where Amazon has stronger control over e-book pricing and can push lower prices and lower profits to publishers and authors. Incremental e-book volume may not compensate these participants. New and unproven authors may embrace the system. Kindle Direct Publishing allows these authors access to consumers through Amazon’s ecosystem in a way the traditional publishing model would never allow. The consumer has a strong incentive to support the Kindle ecosystem. Although it is a closed system, the user experience is tightly managed and the user friendliness and devicecontent coordination is likely far superior to alternatives. Additionally, the consumer has been given additional choice (e-book or print book) with lower price points for e-books and instant delivery. Consumer support for the closed Kindle ecosystem may dampen in the future when technology based on more open standards becomes just “good enough” to appease consumers. 4 This is particularly true if the price to performance trade off swings in favor of the new alternative. Amazon’s ecosystem strategy has evolved over time and transitioned to respond to changing industry dynamics. With the release of Amazon’s second generation Kindle, Amazon launched Whispernet, its proprietary 3G network in partnership with AT&T that is designed to facilitate the secure wireless purchase and delivery of e-books from Amazon to the kindle. This had important ecosystem implications because it allowed the consumer to decouple the e-reader device from the PC, ensuring that consumers do not also have to adopt the latest PC technology to transfer e-books to the device. The e-reader is now a viable standalone technology. Kindle Direct Publishing was another important ecosystem shift. Publishers need to adopt e-book technology in order to populate the e-book ecosystem with content for consumers. It is the critical ecosystem complement. Not all publishers are enthusiastic about the implications of Amazon’s platform and emerging ecosystem, since it has the potential to redistribute the economics of the book publishing industry. Kindle Direct Publishing is Amazon’s attempt to coerce the publishers into participating in their ecosystem. If publishers refuse to offer e-books through Amazon, authors now have the power to distribute e-books directly. This “disciplines” the publishers into coordinating with Amazon on bringing quality content to Kindle, while also allowing authors who are not supported by a publisher to get content into the system. In 2009 Amazon released Kindle software for PC. In 2010 it released software for iPad, Blackberry, and Android. Now, consumers could read e-books distributed through Amazon on nearly any device platform. Opening the Kindle e-book experience to multiple platforms represents a transition in Amazon’s ecosystem away from emphasis on its own hardware. The Kindle e-book file format provided the most consistent, user rich experience. Amazon sought to ensure that it maintained its control over the e-book distribution infrastructure by having the critical component, the e-reading software, available on any hardware platform that consumers prefer. Consumers now no longer needed to adopt Amazon’s hardware, the ecosystem component most subject to rapid product cycles and commoditization, to be rolled into Amazon’s e-book ecosystem. Amazon announced its most recent ecosystem transition in September 2011 with the Android-based Kindle Fire, its first tablet device designed to tap into Amazon’s e-book ecosystem while competing with full-color multimedia tablet devices such as Apple’s iPad and Samsung’s Galaxy. Tablets have become popular devices and viable substitutes for dedicated ereaders. Amazon has an opportunity to expand the reach of its Kindle ecosystem beyond eBooks. The Kindle Fire represents the logical next step. Although it is optimized to consume ebook content from Amazon, it is also designed to integrate seamlessly with Amazon Prime, its instant movie and television show streaming service. 5 Amazon was effective in creating a robust ecosystem because saw control of content distribution as the goal of the ecosystem, not “gadgets” or hardware. Amazon dampened coinnovation risk by closing the system and developing critical ecosystem actors in-house. Although this increased Execution Risk, it started from an advantaged position. Specifically, it had presence in online distribution of print books already. To develop the e-book ecosystem it only had to develop an e-reader and software technologies to facilitate the ecosystem. Although this is no small feat, it was probably easier than building an online retail brand over a decade. Amazon is also forward looking and taking a shot with a disruptive technology. The Kindle Fire is priced significantly below the Apple iPad. Although it is smaller and has fewer features, it may be prove to be just “good enough” for a large segment of the market, while opening the ecosystem beyond books to video and other multimedia. Amazon also created inefficiencies along its path of ecosystem construction. By closing the system, it probably grew slower than it would have otherwise. Had Amazon ported out its ereader software faster to other devices, it may have been able to drive faster adoption of its proprietary standards for e-book publishing. Amazon had to develop its own e-reader within the closed system. Amazon has largely been dependent on screen technology innovations from E-ink in order to drive significant Kindle improvements in future product cycles. By restricting software to the hardware for so long, Amazon may have slowed the adoption to its technology and participation in its ecosystem, and presented an opportunity to adjacent ecosystems (Apple/iPad/iTunes) to gain a stronger foothold in e-books than they would otherwise have obtained. 6