EXCURSIONS IN MODERN MATHEMATICS SIXTH EDITION Peter Tannenbaum 1 CHAPTER 1 THE MATHEMATICS OF VOTING 2 The Paradoxes of Democracy The Mathematics of Voting Outline/learning Objectives 3 Construct and interpret a preference schedule for an election involving preference ballots. Implement the plurality, Borda count, plurality-withelimination, and pairwise comparisons vote counting methods. Rank candidates using recursive and extended methods. Identify fairness criteria as they pertain to voting methods. Understand the significance of Arrows’ impossibility theorem. 4 THE MATHEMATICS OF VOTING 1.1 Preference Ballots and Preference Schedules Voting Theory 5 Why Vote? Think about all the elections you can vote in: Presidential Local elections School board Homecoming queen American Idol Clearly, not all voting is equal Voting Theory 6 Casting a vote is only part of the story. What matters more is how the votes are counted to determine a winner. To analyze the various voting methods we need: Candidates – the choices Voters – the ones who are voting Ballots – the way the votes are collected Voting Theory 7 In 1940, Kenneth Arrow discovered an incredible fact: for elections involving three or more candidates, there is no consistently fair democratic method for choosing a winner. In fact, a method for determining election results that is democratic and always fair is a mathematical impossibility. This is known as Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem. Preference Ballots and Schedules 8 Preference ballots A ballot in which the voters are asked to rank the candidates in order of preference. Linear ballot A ballot in which ties are not allowed. Preference Ballots and Schedules 9 An example of a preference ballot is each person’s vote in our math class party election. Preference ballots allow voters to express an opinion on all candidates instead of just choosing their choice. Ballot 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Preference Ballots and Schedules 10 Ballot Ballot Ballot Ballot Ballot Ballot Ballot Ballot Ballot C A C B C C A D A B B D D D B B B B D C B A B D C C C A D A C A A D A D Ballot Ballot Ballot Ballot Ballot Ballot Ballot Ballot Ballot D C A A C C D B C B D B B B B B D B C B C C D D C A D A A D D A A A C A 18 voters Preference Ballots and Schedules 11 There are a limited number of ways the candidates can be ranked, so some ballots may repeat. If we collect all the repeats and organize them in a table, we get a preference schedule. Number of Voters 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Preference Ballots and Schedules 12 Number of Voters 4 5 4 2 3 1st C A C B D 2nd B B D D B 3rd D C B A C 4th A D A C A Preference Ballots and Schedules 13 Preference Ballots and Schedules 14 A preference schedule: Preference Ballots and Schedules 15 Things to keep in mind: Voter preferences are transitive If I like Sprite better than Dr. Pepper and I like Dr. Pepper more than Mt. Dew, then I like Sprite better than Mt. Dew. If we need to know which candidate a voter would vote for if it all came down to candidate X and candidate Y, we just look at where X and Y are on that person’s ballot. Preference Ballots and Schedules 16 Things to keep in mind: Relative preferences are not affected by elimination of a candidate. If a candidate drops out of a race, then the votes shift up accordingly. Example: If I remove Starburst from the candy options (because the wrappers will end up everywhere), to recalculate a winner, I just move everyone’s votes up accordingly. Preference Ballots and Schedules 17 Relative Preferences by elimination of one or more candidates Preference Ballots and Schedules 18 How many people voted in this election? If D gets sick and can’t run, what is the new schedule? 51 48 5 1st Choice A D E 2nd Choice B C C 3rd Choice C B D 4th Choice D A B 5th Choice E E A Preference Ballots and Schedules 19 The Mathematics Society is holding an election for the president. The three candidates are A, B, and C. Forty-five percent of voters like A the most and B the least. Thirty percent of voters like B the most and C the least. Twenty-five percent of voters like C the most and A the least. Write out the preference schedule for this election. 1st Choice 2nd Choice 3rd Choice Preference Ballots and Schedules 20 In an election involving 6 candidates, what is the maximum number of columns possible in the preference schedule? N! 21 THE MATHEMATICS OF VOTING 1.2 The Plurality Method The Plurality Method 22 Plurality method In the plurality method, all we care about is firstplace votes. The candidate with the most first-place votes wins. Plurality candidate The Candidate with the most 1st place votes The Plurality Method 23 The vast majority of our elections are decided using the plurality method. Since the only votes that count are first-place votes, we don’t bother to rank the other candidates. The Plurality Method 24 Find the winner of this election using the plurality method: Number of Voters 4 5 4 2 3 1st C A C B D 2nd B B D D B 3rd D C B A C 4th A D A C A The Plurality Method 25 Majority rule The candidate with a more than half the votes should be the winner. Majority candidate The candidate with the majority of 1st place votes . The Plurality Method 26 The plurality method is appealing because it is simple and it is a natural extension of the principle of majority rule. In a democratic election between 2 candidates, the candidate with a majority of the votes should be the winner. The candidate with a majority of first-place votes is called the majority candidate. However, with 3 or more candidates, there is no guarantee that one candidate will win a majority of votes. The Plurality Method 27 The Majority Criterion (a fairness criterion) If candidate X has a majority of the 1st place votes, then candidate X should be the winner of the election. Good News: The plurality method satisfies the majority criterion! Bad News: The plurality method fails a different fairness criterion. The Plurality Method 28 Under the plurality method, a majority candidate is guaranteed to be the winner. Why? The Plurality Method 29 There are widely used voting methods that can produce violations of the majority criterion. Specifically, a violation of the majority criterion occurs in an election in which there is a majority candidate but that candidate does not win the election. If this can happen under some voting method, then the voting method itself violates the majority criterion. Note: violations may occur, not that they always will occur. The Plurality Method 30 Other than the majority criterion, the plurality method has little appeal and is undesirable when choosing between more than two candidates. The Plurality Method 31 The principal weakness of the plurality method is that it fails to take into consideration a voter’s other preferences beyond first choice and in doing so can lead to some very bad election results. The Plurality Method 32 Tasmania State University has a superb marching band. They are so good that they have invitations to perform at five different bowl games: the Rose Bowl (R), the Hula Bowl (H), the Fiesta Bowl (F), the Orange Bowl (O), and the Sugar Bowl (S). An election is held among the 100 members of the band to decide in which bowl game they will perform. The Plurality Method 33 Tasmania State University has a superb marching band. They are so good that they have invitations to perform at five different bowl games: the Rose Bowl (R), the Hula Bowl (H), the Fiesta Bowl (F), the Orange Bowl (O), and the Sugar Bowl (S). An election is held among the 100 members of the band to decide in which bowl game they will perform. # of voters 49 48 3 1st choice R H F 2nd choice H S H 3rd choice F O S 4th choice O F O 5th choice S R R The Plurality Method 34 Find the winner using the plurality method. Is this a good outcome? Why or why not? # of voters 49 48 3 1st choice R H F 2nd choice H S H 3rd choice F O S 4th choice O F O 5th choice S R R The Plurality Method 35 By contrast, the Hula Bowl has 48 first-place votes and 52 second-place votes. Common sense tells us that the Hula Bowl is a far better choice to represent the wishes of the entire band. In fact, if we compare the Hula Bowl with any other bowl on a head-to-head basis, the Hula Bowl is always the preferred choice. The Plurality Method 36 For example, compare the Hula Bowl to the Rose Bowl. # of voters 49 48 3 1st choice R H F 2nd choice H S H 3rd choice F O S 4th choice O F O 5th choice S R R The Plurality Method 37 The Condorcet Criterion If candidate X is preferred by the voters over each of the other candidates in a head-to-head comparison, then candidate X should be the winner of the election. Not every election has a Condorcet candidate but if there is one, it is a good sign that this candidate represents the voice of the voters better than any other candidate. The Plurality Method 38 Consider once again the marching band bowl game example. # of voters 49 48 3 1st choice R H F 2nd choice H S H 3rd choice F O S 4th choice O F O 5th choice S R R RvH RvF RvO RvS HvF HvO HvS FvO FvS OvS The Plurality Method 39 The Hula Bowl is a Condorcet candidate but under the plurality method, the Hula bowl is not the winner. Therefore, the plurality method violates the Condorcet criterion. # of voters 49 48 3 1st choice R H F 2nd choice H S H 3rd choice F O S 4th choice O F O 5th choice S R R The Plurality Method 40 Insincere Voting (or Strategic Voting) If we know that the candidate we really want doesn’t have a chance of winning, then rather than “wasting our vote” on our favorite candidate we can cast it for a lesser choice that has a better chance of winning the election. The Plurality Method 41 Of the voting methods, the plurality method is most susceptible to insincere voting. In the US, presidential races are often decided by insincere voters. The Plurality Method 42 Jill Stein This candidate was my first choice, but I knew that she had zero chance of winning the national election. Barack Obama On the other hand, this was my second choice and had a much better chance of winning, so I voted for him instead. The Plurality Method 43 Back to the marching band example. If the three people who voted for the Fiesta Bowl as their first choice realized that it had little chance of winning but that the Hula bowl, their second choice, had a good chance of winning, they could change their votes and therefore, change the outcome. The Plurality Method 44 # of voters 49 48 3 1st choice R H F 2nd choice H S H 3rd choice F O S 4th choice O F O 5th choice S R R # of voters 49 48 3 1st choice R H H 2nd choice H S F 3rd choice F O S 4th choice O F O 5th choice S R R The Plurality Method 45 The plurality method of voting reinforces an entrenched two-party system that often leaves voters with no real choice. This is called Duverger’s Law. The Plurality Method 46 Who is the plurality method winner? Is there a majority candidate? Is there a Condorcet candidate? 6 3 5 8 1st Choice D D A C 2nd Choice B A C A 3rd Choice A B B D 4th Choice C C D B The Plurality Method 47 Consider an election with 456 voters and seven candidates. What is the smallest number of votes that a plurality candidate could have? 48 THE MATHEMATICS OF VOTING 1.3 The Borda Count Method The Borda Count Method 49 In the Borda Count Method each place on a ballot is assigned points. In an election with N candidates we give 1 point for last place, 2 points for second from last place, and so on. The points for each candidate are tallied and the candidate with the highest total is the winner. This candidate is called the Borda winner. The Borda Count Method 50 This method can sometimes result in a tie. In this unit, assume that a tie can stand and will not be decided using some other method. The Borda Count Method 51 The Borda count method is good for taking into account voters’ preferences beyond first choice. Because the winner is the candidate with the best average ranking, the winner is often a good compromise candidate. The Borda Count Method 52 Consider the election for the new principal at Washington Elementary School. The School Board is going to hire one of four finalists: Mrs. Amaro, Mr. Burr, Mr. Castro, and Mrs. Dunbar. The winner will be determined using the Borda count method. # of voters 6 2 3 1st choice A B C 2nd choice B C D 3rd choice C D B 4th choice D A A The Borda Count Method 53 Who is the winner? How do you think Mrs. Amaro feels about the outcome? # of voters 6 2 3 1st choice A B C 2nd choice B C D 3rd choice C D B 4th choice D A A The Borda Count Method 54 Violations of Fairness Criterion From the previous example, we see that the Borda Count method violates both the majority criterion and the Condorcet criterion. Despite its flaws, experts in voting theory consider it one of the best, if not the best, method for deciding elections with many candidates. The Borda Count Method 55 In defense of the Borda count method: Although violations of the majority criterion can occur, they are very rare especially when there are many candidates. The Condorcet criterion violation follows from the majority criterion violation since a majority candidate is also a Condorcet candidate. There can still be a violation of the majority criterion but it is unlikely. The Borda Count Method 56 The Borda count method is used for deciding many elections, including: Heisman trophy winner NBA Rookie of the Year NFL MVP College football polls The Borda Count Method 57 Using the Borda Count method who won the election? 6 3 5 8 1st Choice D D A C 2nd Choice B A C A 3rd Choice A B B D 4th Choice C C D B The Borda Count Method 58 An election is held among three candidates (A, B, C) using the Borda count method. There are 20 voters If candidate A received 37 points and candidate B received 39 points how many points did candidate C receive? 59 THE MATHEMATICS OF VOTING 1.4 The Plurality-with-elimination Method Plurality-with-Elimination Method 60 There is rarely a majority with 3 or more candidates. IRV = Instant Runoff Voting. When a majority does not exist, removing the candidate with the lowest first-place votes one at a time until a majority exists is the Plurality-withElimination method. Plurality-with-Elimination Method 61 Using a preference ballot, a voter can choose his or her first choice and also rank the remaining choices. We can therefore tell who a voter would vote for in a runoff election, even if their first choice is eliminated. # of voters 14 10 8 4 1 1st A C D B C 2nd B B C D D 3rd C D B C B 4th D A A A A Plurality-with-Elimination Method 62 Round 1. Count the first-place votes for each candidate, just as you would in the plurality method. If a candidate has a majority of first-place votes, that candidate is the winner. Otherwise, eliminate the candidate (or candidates if there is a tie) with the fewest first-place votes. Plurality-with-Elimination Method 63 Plurality-with-Elimination Method 64 Round 2. Cross out the name(s) of the candidates eliminated from the preference and recount the first-place votes. (Remember that when a candidate is eliminated from the preference schedule, in each column the candidates below it move up a spot.) Plurality-with-Elimination Method 65 Round 2 (continued). If a candidate has a majority of first-place votes, declare that candidate the winner. Otherwise, eliminate the candidate with the fewest first-place votes. Plurality-with-Elimination Method 66 14 votes 11 votes 12 votes Plurality-with-Elimination Method 67 Round 3, 4, etc. Repeat the process, each time eliminating one or more candidates until there is a candidate with a majority of first-place votes. That candidate is the winner of the election. Plurality-with-Elimination Method 68 14 votes 23 votes Plurality-with-Elimination Method 69 # of voters 93 44 10 30 42 81 1st A B C C D E 2nd B D A E C D 3rd C E E B E C 4th D C B A A B 5th E A D D B A Plurality-with-Elimination Method 70 We can conclude that the plurality-with-elimination method satisfies the Majority Criterion. # 6 2 3 1st A B C 2nd B C D 3rd C D B 4th D A A Plurality-with-Elimination Method 71 So what is wrong with the plurality-with-elimination method? The Monotonicity Criterion If candidate X is a winner of an election and, in a reelection, the only changes in the ballots are changes that favor X (and only X), then X should remain a winner of the election. Plurality-with-Elimination Method 72 Athens, Barcelona, and Calgary are competing to host the summer Olympics. The final decision is made by a secret vote of the 29 members of the Executive Council of the IOC and the winner will be chosen using the plurality-with-elimination method. A few days before the election, the results of a straw poll are leaked. Based on the results, Calgary is going to win. Plurality-with-Elimination Method 73 Straw Poll # 7 8 10 4 1st A B C A 2nd B C A C 3rd C A B B Official Results – Everyone loves a winner # 7 8 14 1st A B C 2nd B C A 3rd C A B Plurality-with-Elimination Method 74 The Olympic example illustrates a violation of the monotonicity criterion. The plurality-with-elimination method of voting also violates the Condorcet criterion. Plurality-with-Elimination Method 75 Using the Plurality-with-Elimination method who won the election? 6 3 5 8 1st Choice D D A C 2nd Choice B A C A 3rd Choice A B B D 4th Choice C C D B 76 THE MATHEMATICS OF VOTING 1.5 The Method of Pairwise Comparisons Method of Pairwise Comparisons 77 All three methods we’ve looked at so far have violated the Condorcet criterion. The next method we will consider does not violate this fairness criterion. Plurality Method Borda Count Method Plurality-With-Elimination Method of Pairwise Comparisons 78 In this method, every candidate is matched head-tohead against every other candidate. Each of these match-ups is called a pairwise comparison. In a pairwise comparison between X and Y, every vote is assigned to either X or Y, the vote going to the whichever of the two candidates is listed higher on the ballot. Method of Pairwise Comparisons 79 The winner gets 1 point, the loser gets 0 points and in a tie, both get .5 points. The winner of the election is the candidate with the most points after all the pairwise comparisons have been tabulated. Ties can happen with this method and are quite common. Method of Pairwise Comparisons 80 # 2 6 4 1 1 4 4 1st A B B C C D E 2nd D A A B D A C 3rd C C D A A E D 4th B D E D B C B 5th E E C E E B A A vs. B A vs. C A vs. D A vs. E B vs. C B vs. D B vs. E C vs. D C vs. E D vs. E Note: 10 Comparisons A vs. B = 7 votes to 15 (B wins). B gets 1 point. A vs. C = 16 votes to 6 (A wins). A gets 1 point. Method of Pairwise Comparisons 81 So what is wrong with the method of pairwise comparisons? The Independence-of-Irrelevant-Alternatives Criterion (IIA) If candidate X is a winner of an election and in a recount one of the non-winning candidates is removed (or added) from the ballots, then X should still be a winner of the election. Method of Pairwise Comparisons 82 # 2 6 4 1st A B B 2nd D A A B D A D A A E E D B E E 3rd 4th B D 5th E E 1 1 4 4 D E D B B A Eliminate C (an irrelevant alternative) from this election and B wins (rather than A). Method of Pairwise Comparisons 83 Gauss’s method: Sum of Consecutive Integers What is the sum of 1+2+3…99? Method of Pairwise Comparisons 84 How Many Pairwise Comparisons? In an election between 5 candidates, there were 10 pairwise comparisons. How many comparisons will be needed for an election having 6 candidates? Ans. 5 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1 = 15 Method of Pairwise Comparisons 85 The Number of Pairwise Comparisons In an election with N candidates the total number of pairwise comparisons between candidates is an abbreviated Sum of Consecutive Integers formula: (N -1)N 2 Method of Pairwise Comparisons 86 Using the Pairwise Comparisons method who won the election? 6 3 5 8 1st Choice D D A C 2nd Choice B A C A 3rd Choice A B B D 4th Choice C C D B Method of Pairwise Comparisons 87 An election is held among six candidates. What is the total number of Pairwise Comparisons in this election? In a round robin tennis tournament, every player plays against every other player. If 24 players are entered in the tournament, how many matches will be played? Method of Pairwise Comparisons 88 1 + 2 + 3 + … + 99 + 100 = 2 + 4 + 6 + … + 198 + 200 = 89 THE MATHEMATICS OF VOTING 1.6 Rankings Rankings 90 Often, it is important to not only know who wins an election but also to know who comes in 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc. Consider the Math Club election. Suppose that instead of having multiple elections, they are holding a single election for a board of directors, including a president, a vice president, and a treasurer. 1st place will be president, 2nd place will be vice president, and 3rd place will be treasurer. Rankings 91 Extended Ranking Extended Plurality Extended Borda Count Extended Plurality with Elimination Extended Pairwise Comparisons Recursive Ranking Recursive Plurality Recursive Plurality with Elimination Rankings: Extended Plurality 92 In the extended plurality method, we count the first place votes of each candidate and rank them in order from most first place votes to fewest first place votes. # 14 10 8 4 1 1st A C D B C 2nd B B C D D 3rd C D B C B 4th D A A A A nd: the rd: D, 4th: B Find the ranking 1st: A, 2of C, 3candidates Rankings: Extended Borda Count 93 In the extended Borda count method, the point totals are tallied for each candidate and then the candidates are ranked in order from highest total to lowest total. # 14 10 8 4 1 1st A C D B C 2nd B B C D D 3rd C D B C B 4th D A A A A rd: D(81), 4th: A(79) the ranking of the3candidates 1st:Find B(106), 2nd: C(104), Rankings: Extended Plurality-withElimination 94 In the extended plurality-with-elimination method, candidates are ranked by the order in which they are eliminated. The winner is determined the usual way. Second place is the last eliminated candidate. # 14 10 8 4 1 1st A C D B C 2nd B B C D D 3rd C D B C B 4th D A A A A st: D, 2nd rd: C, 4th: B Find the 1ranking of: A, the3candidates Rankings: Extended Method of Pairwise Comparisons 95 In the extended method of pairwise comparisons method, candidates are ranked by point totals after tabulating all the pairwise comparisons, highest to lowest. # 14 10 8 4 1 1st A C D B C 2nd B B C D D 3rd C D B C B 4th D A A A A st: C, 2nd Find the 1ranking of: B, the3rd candidates : D, 4th: A Rankings: Recursive 96 A somewhat more involved strategy for ranking is recursive ranking. In the case of an election, the process is to find the winner then remove the winner’s name from the preference schedule, thus creating a new preference schedule. Rankings: Recursive 97 Recursive Ranking Step 1: [Determine first place] Choose winner using method and remove that candidate. Step 2: [Determine second place] Choose winner of new election (without candidate removed in step 1) and remove that candidate. Steps 3, 4, etc.: [Determine third, fourth, etc. places] Continue in same manner using method on remaining candidates yet to be ranked. Rankings: Recursive Plurality 98 First-place: A Second-place: B Third-place: C Fourth-place: D Rankings: Recursive 99 While interesting, recursive ranking methods have little practical use and in reality, extended ranking methods are almost always used. The Mathematics of Voting Conclusion 100 Methods of Vote Counting Fairness Criteria Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem It is mathematically impossible for a democratic voting method to satisfy all of the fairness criteria.