Chapter 9 Analyzing and Adjusting Comparable Sales Basic Real Estate Appraisal: Principle & Procedure – 9th Edition © 2015 OnCourse Learning STUDENT LEARNING OUTCOMES • Name the Four Elements of Sales Comparison • List Three Rules for Making Adjustments • Name the Three Types of Adjustments Most Commonly Used • Explain How a Value Conclusion is Reached © 2015 OnCourse Learning Page 270 2 9.1 BASIC METHODS OF COMPARING SALES Page 271 Qualitative vs. Quantitative Adjustments Direct Comparison Method has Limitations – Relies on “Intuition”, but a good cross-check © 2015 OnCourse Learning 3 ELEMENTS OF COMPARISON METHOD Page 273 The Four Elements of Comparison • Terms and Conditions of Sale • Date of Sale • Location Elements • Physical Elements Detailed on the following slides © 2015 OnCourse Learning 4 Page 274 1. TERMS OF SALE • Seller Financing • More Favorable than Third-Party Lender terms? • Unfavorable? • Assumed Financing • Favorable or Unfavorable? • Seller-Paid Points or Closing Costs • Generally, Buyer pays Points • In a Buyer’s Market, Seller may pay Points 5 © 2015 OnCourse Learning 1. CONDITIONS OF SALE (Con’t.) Page 274 • Property Rights Conveyed • Unusual Easements • Lease Terms – Favorable to Tenants? • Motives of the Parties • Arm’s-Length • Adequate Market Exposure • Personal Property/Tenant Improvements • Seller Concessions 6 © 2015 OnCourse Learning ELEMENTS OF COMPARISON (Con’t.) Page 275 2. Date of Sale • Market Conditions Influence Price • Time of Sale vs. Date of Value 3. Location Elements • Desirability • Do Prices Differ Due to Location? 4. Physical Elements • Size, Quality, Conditions, Age, etc. • Specific Features / Degree of Modernization © 2015 OnCourse Learning 7 COMPARING & ADJUSTING SALES Page 275 Comparison Process • Compare and Analyze the Four Elements of Comparison • Are Feature Differences and Price Differences Connected? Adjustment Process • Are Market-Derived Adjustments Reasonable? • Should be Applied Consistently to Each Sale • Should Reduce Price Spread Between Sales © 2015 OnCourse Learning 8 RULES FOR MAKING ADJUSTMENTS Page 277 Adjust the Sale to the Subject! Make the Sale to be More Like the Subject 9 © 2015 OnCourse Learning RULES FOR ADJUSTMENTS (Con’t.) Page 278 Use Market-Derived Adjustments • Reflect the Market’s Reaction Adjust in the Proper Sequence • From General to Specific • Terms & Conditions of Sale • Date of Sale • Location Elements • Physical Elements 10 © 2015 OnCourse Learning Page 278 TYPES OF ADJUSTMENTS • Lump-Sum Dollars • Percentage • Units of Comparison 11 © 2015 OnCourse Learning USING A SALES ADJUSTMENT GRID Page 281 12 © 2015 OnCourse Learning 9.3 SELECTING AND USING UNITS OF COMPARISON Detailed on the following slides © 2015 OnCourse Learning Page 281 13 TYPES OF UNITS OF COMPARISON Page 285 Total Property • Prices for Similar Properties • Minor Differences Accounted for by Ranking the Sales Physical Units • Price per Square Foot or Acre • Price per Room • Price per Dwelling Unit (See Example 9.3) © 2015 OnCourse Learning 14 UNITS OF COMPARISON TYPES (Con’t.) Page 287 Economic Units of Comparison • Price per Buildable Dwelling Unit • Price per Developable Building Area • Gross Income Multipliers Applying Units of Comparison • Identify Why Unit Prices Differ • As Units (Size) Increases / Unit Price may Decrease 15 © 2015 OnCourse Learning Page 291 GRAPHING THE SALES 16 © 2015 OnCourse Learning 9.3 HOW TO ESTIMATE DOLLAR AND PERCENT ADJUSTMENTS Page 293 Direct Market Method • Matched Pair – At least Two Sales that can be Compared to Estimate the Price Difference Caused by One Characteristic • Example 9.5 – Finding Adjustment for Size • Subject contains 2,600 SF Gross Living Area • Sale are Similar Except for GLA Size See Next Slide 17 © 2015 OnCourse Learning EXAMPLE 9.5 - USING MATCHED PAIRS Page 295 Calculation For Size Adjustment Sale # #2 #1 Difference Size (SF) 2,700 2,500 200 Sale Price $280,000 $270,000 $10,000 Adjustment: $10,000 ÷ 200 SF = $50 per SF 18 © 2015 OnCourse Learning DEPRECIATED COST METHOD Page 296 • Best Application is When Estimating an Adjustment for Physical Differences • Represents an Indirect Method, based in part on Market Data • Example 9.7 - Finding a Garage Adjustment • Subject has a 440 SF Garage • Comparable Sale has No Garage • Problem – Finding Amount to Adjust the Sale 19 © 2015 OnCourse Learning DEPRECIATED COST METHOD (Con’t.) Cost New: 440 SF @ $43.50 = Less: Depreciation Cost New $19,140 Age is 60 Yrs. Life Expectancy 100 Yrs. Depreciation: 60 ÷ 100 = X 0.60 Equals: Depreciation in $ Equals: Adjustment Amount for Garage: Rounded: Page 297 $19,140 - 11,484 $ 7,656 $ 7,700 © 2015 OnCourse Learning 20 ADJUSTING FOR SALE TERMS OR CONDITIONS Page 298 21 © 2015 OnCourse Learning STATISTICS - LINEAR REGRESSION Page 300 22 © 2015 OnCourse Learning STATISTICS – MULTIPLE REGRESSION Page 301 • Can Analyze Multiple Variables, versus a Single Variable (Linear Regression) • Requires a minimum of 20 to 30 sales (properties) • Used by Assessors (Mass Appraisals) and Lenders (Appraisal Reviews) • Now Used as a Valuation Tool and for Supporting Adjustments by Appraisers • CompCruncher & Redstone are examples of programs by Bradford Software 23 © 2015 OnCourse Learning STATISTICS – MULTIPLE REGRESSION Page 301 Sample Results (Output) Source: Redstone User’s Guide, v. 1.0.25 www.BradfordSoftware.com/Redstone 24 © 2015 OnCourse Learning AUTOMATED VALUATION MODELS Page 301 • Computer Software Programs (AVM) • Many use a form of Multiple Regression • Analyzes Data in Specified Area or Neighborhood • Relates Results of Database Search to Subject Property Information Imputed into the Model (e.g. Zillow.com) • When Applied to an Individual Property it is Not an Appraisal (without an Appraiser) • An AVM May Become the Basis for an Appraisal (if Output is judged Reliable) © 2015 OnCourse Learning 25 9.4 ARRIVING AT AN INDICATED VALUE Page 302 Four Steps to Arrive at a Conclusion 1. Review the Entire Approach 2. Review the Sales Data 3. Estimate a Value Range 4. Select a Final Value (i.e. Reconciliation) Detailed on the following slides © 2015 OnCourse Learning 26 #1 – REVIEW THE ENTIRE APPROACH Page 302 • Comparability of Sales Selected • Activity Levels • Adjustment Accuracy • Statistical Limits • Lagging the Market • Motivation / Knowledgeable Parties 27 © 2015 OnCourse Learning #2 – REVIEW THE SALES DATA Page 304 • Sales Data • Consider Reliability of Information • Enough Information on Each Sale? • Look Back at Motivations – Particularly on one Key and Important Sale • Reviewing Adjustments • Consider Types of Adjustments / Reliability • Consider $ Amounts & Percentages (Net/Gross) 28 © 2015 OnCourse Learning #3 – ESTIMATE A VALUE RANGE Page 305 • May not be Necessary if Data are quite Comparable and Range is Tight • Using the Range of Adjusted Sales Prices • Consider Upper and Lower Limits of Range • Range of Value from Most Comparable Sales • Do Indicators by Most Comparable Sales Cluster in High or Low End of the Range? 29 © 2015 OnCourse Learning Page 306 #4 – SELECT A FINAL VALUE • Not a Mathematical Calculation – the Process Requires Judgment! 30 © 2015 OnCourse Learning Page 307 CHAPTER SUMMARY Analyzing and adjusting comparable sales rely on two main methods: the Direct Comparison Method and the Elements of Comparison Method. The Direct Comparison Method simply compares the overall desirability of each sold property with that of the subject, without any quantitative adjustments. 31 © 2015 OnCourse Learning CHAPTER SUMMARY (Con’t.) Page 308 The Elements of Comparison Method compares the sales with reference to the details of four critical elements: the Terms and Conditions of Sale, the Time of Sale, the Location elements, and the Physical Elements of the properties. Arriving at a Value Conclusion requires a Review of the Entire Approach, a Review of the Sales Data, Estimating a Value Range, and the Selecting a Final Value. © 2015 OnCourse Learning 32 IMPORTANT TERMS & CONCEPTS Automated Valuation Model (AVM) Matched Pair Comparison Process Multiple Regression Date of Sale Percentage Adjustment Depreciated Cost Method Physical Elements Direct Comparison Method Physical Unit of Comparison Economic Unit of Comparison Sales Adjustment Grid Elements of Comparison Method Sales Graph Gross Income Multiplier (GIM) Terms and Conditions of Sale Linear Regression Total Property Comparison Location Elements Unit of Comparison Lump-Sum Dollar Adjustment Value Range Page 309 33 © 2015 OnCourse Learning