R2P and Humanitarian Action Edmund Cairns Oxfam GB Abstract The responsibility to protect was not the only concept that grew out of the world’s failure to tackle the mass atrocities of the 1990s in Rwanda, Bosnia and elsewhere. So too did a new approach to humanitarian action which placed a higher priority on protecting civilians, and on advocacy to do so, than had hitherto been common. Oxfam’s role in the campaign to persuade the 2005 World Summit to adopt the responsibility to protect was one prominent example, but, to different degrees, this broad approach has become widely shared among many international humanitarian agencies. Since 2005, however, even Oxfam has made little use of the responsibility to protect to frame its own work to help protect civilians, or to advocate to prevent mass atrocities in specific crises. This is partly because of the fear that R2P can be misapplied to justify military intervention where the benefits do not clearly outweigh the risks. But it is also because of the continuing suspicion around R2P among many governments. This seems to reflect the wider limits of what largely Western-based humanitarian agencies and governments can do to develop new international norms and put them into effect. When R2P was first developed, humanitarian agencies played a part in broadly similar alliances to ban landmines, establish the ICC and so on. Some of these have already had a substantial effect, while it may be a generation before the value of R2P and others can be fairly evaluated. Looking ahead, humanitarian agencies will have to put an increasing emphasis on influencing emerging powers and other Southern governments, while alliances between governments and ngos, to be effective, will have to be genuinely global. The responsibility to protect (R2P) was not the only concept that grew out of the world’s failure to tackle the mass atrocities of the 1990s in Rwanda, Bosnia and elsewhere. So too did a new approach to humanitarian action which placed a higher priority on protecting civilians, and on advocacy to do so, than had hitherto been common. In April 1994, Oxfam’s country director in Rwanda, Anne Mackintosh, was hiding as machete-armed men ‘flushed out and killed seven members of the Tutsi nurse’s family.’ The victims, she later wrote, ‘included a three-year-old boy [and] a pregnant woman whose belly was split open and the unborn baby exposed. We heard the groans, and later the death-rattle, of the elderly mission cook who had been clubbed to the ground.’1 Oxfam was as shocked as so many others by what was happening in Rwanda, and by the world’s failure to stop it. As a young adviser in its policy department, I wrote a paper called ‘Genocide in Rwanda’ that April, arguing for a new un force to intervene to end the bloodshed. Oxfam’s Director, David Bryer,2 and I flew to Geneva to put that case to the un Secretary-General, Boutros Boutros-Ghali, before a depressing week I spent in New York wandering around the national missions to the un Security Council arguing for them not only to authorise that new force, but to make it happen. In May, they did authorise such a force, but certainly did not make it happen, and the genocide was only ended, eventually, by the advance of the then-rebel Rwanda Patriotic Front. David Bryer later wrote, in September 1994, that ‘the tragedy of Rwanda has demonstrated more clearly than ever before that the international community lacks the capacity to respond effectively to such crises.’3 But he also recognised that it fitted into a wider experience for humanitarian agencies in the early and mid-1990s, disillusioned that the post-Cold War world was not as peaceful as it was meant to be, and frustrated that water, sanitation and the other relief that we traditionally provided did not, of course, stop violence. As well as Rwanda, Somalia and particularly Bosnia were formative crises in the development of that thinking – in asking what more the world, including humanitarian agencies, could do to protect civilians. Long before Srebrenica in July 1995, aid workers in the Balkans spoke of delivering relief to the men, women and children 1 Anne Mackintosh, ‘International aid and the media’, Contemporary Politics, 2/1 (1996), p. 39. 2 Bryer was Director of Oxfam uk and Ireland, the predecessor of today’s Oxfam gb and Oxfam Ireland, two of the 17 members of the confederation of Oxfam International: see Oxfam International, ‘About Us’, http://www.oxfam.org/en/about, accessed 23 October 2013. 3 Guy Vassall-Adams, Rwanda: an Agenda for International Action (Oxford: Oxfam Publications, 1994), p. 2. who would become the ‘well-fed dead’4 as they were left unprotected from the violence that had engulfed Bosnia since 1992. By 1994, that the world had dreadfully let down such victims of atrocities was a widely shared feeling among aid workers, journalists and diplomats across the world. In Australia, an NGO called Community Aid Abroad (CAA) shared that concern, and in July 1994 organised a conference in Melbourne to look at, as it was entitled: ‘un Interventions in Conflict Situations: the rhetoric, the reality and the possibilities’. CAA would later evolve to become Oxfam Australia, and its leader, Jeremy Hobbs to become in 2001 Oxfam International’s Executive Director. In 1994 he invited one Gareth Evans, then Australia’s Foreign Minister, to give the conference’s keynote speech, and Evans used it to call on his audience to ‘[rethink] some of the conceptual foundations of inter- national security [and] develop a new and more sharply focused sense of inter- national responsibility when it comes to dealing with deadly conflict’.5 That call chimed with what many in Oxfam wanted to hear. In 1995, ‘protection from violence’ became one of the ten ‘basic rights’ Oxfam adopted as, in common with many other ngos, it saw itself as an increasingly ‘rights-based’ organisation.6 At the same time, Oxfam joined a process, led by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), to consider how agencies without any for- mal mandate to protect civilians, should nevertheless do so. This was a conscious response to Rwanda and Bosnia. The result of such thinking was no sudden change, but the rest of the decade saw Oxfam becoming gradually more systematic in looking at threats to civilians’ protection when designing its programmes. At the same time, its campaigning capacity was growing, and it focused a significant part of it onto the need to protect civilians in a wide range of crises. If not R2P, a strong focus on the protection of civilians had already begun. In 1997, its new ‘Conflict Campaign’ was launched with the statement that aid agencies had ‘sometimes implied that the best thing individuals can do is give money to us to provide more aid. Oxfam believes that an even more valuable contribution is to tell their governments to find a better 4 Richard Dowden, ‘Leaving them dead but fed’, The Independent, 15 December 1994, http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/leaving-them-deadbut-fed-1387562.html, accessed 22 October 2013. 5 Gareth Evans, ‘Cooperating for Peace: the un role in conflict situations’, address to Community Aid Abroad seminar, Melbourne, 18 July 1994, http://www.dfat.gov.au/archive/speeches_old/ minfor/geuncaa.html, accessed 22 October 2013. 6 Edmund Cairns, A Safer Future: reducing the human cost of war (uk and Ireland: Oxfam gb, 1997), p. 8, http://policypractice.oxfam.org.uk/publications/a-safer-future-reducing-the -human-cost-of-war-121034, accessed 22 October 2013. way of tackling the scourge of war’.7 Around the turn of the millennium, that spirit infused Oxfam’s advocacy around a long list of crises including Kosovo, Sierra Leone and the country that would come to new prominence after the terrorist attacks of 9/11, Afghanistan. In October 2001, after 9/11, the fear that drove Oxfam’s advocacy was that the us invasion of Afghanistan could fatally disrupt the distribution of food ahead of the particularly harsh winter that was then predicted. When the anti-Taliban forces entered Kabul on 12 November, it was surprised as anyone at the speed of the Taliban’s apparent collapse, and the end of at least the first stage of Afghanistan’s latest war. None of that meant, however, that 9/11 had not changed the world, and when the concept of R2P was launched in December, by the International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty,8 Oxfam realised as much as anyone that the weeks since September had changed the discourse on military action. On the one hand, the prospect of invading Iraq was already on the horizon. On the other, the invasion of Afghanistan may or may not have been right, but it certainly was not the deadly inaction that R2P had been developed to prevent. And so Oxfam like many others allowed the ICISS report to pass without much notice in the heated days of December 2001 – despite its resonance with much of the humanitarian history of the 1990s, and its careful presentation of the multiple responsibilities to prevent, rebuild and react, and how to react short of military action as well as, occasionally, with it. Then Iraq dominated so much in the following two years. Oxfam had not worked in the country since 1996, but had seen at first hand the devastating destruction of water and sanitation facilities during the first Gulf War in 1991. In 2002, it became increasingly concerned as the invasion of Iraq seemed to become more and more likely, partly out of a fear that that history of infra- structure destruction would be repeated (which it largely was not), but primarily out of fear for the invasion’s consequences on the wider Middle East. To little avail, Oxfam therefore argued strongly against the impending invasion.9 After it happened, Oxfam deployed staff for a tragically short time before they were evacuated in August 2003 after the murder of more than 20 un humanitarian workers. And it was really only after that period, heavily focused on Iraq, that the responsibility to protect was much discussed in the organisation again. 7 Cairns, A Safer Future, p. 108. 8 International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty (iciss), The Responsibility to Protect (Ottawa: idrc, 2001), http://responsibilitytoprotect.org/ICISS%20Report.pdf. 9 Oxfam International, Protecting Iraq’s Civilians, Oxfam Briefing Paper 40, March 2003, http:// www.oxfam.org/en/policy/pp030310-Iraq-civilians, accessed 22 October 2013. One of the clichés of humanitarian advocacy is that the world is divided between humanitarian crises that suffer from too little international attention and those that suffer from too much – the ‘forgotten’ or ‘neglected’ crises out of the political or media spotlight that receive a fraction of the aid that they need; and those very much in that spotlight where political priorities may trump the humanitarian. In the 1990s, most of the key crises, including Bosnia and Rwanda, had suffered from too little, and R2P responded primarily to that failure. Iraq and Afghanistan were different. And in the early 2000s it was those two countries that dominated attention, alongside the seemingly endless conflicts in Sudan and northern Uganda. By 2004, however, Oxfam was out of Iraq, and the conflict in Darfur, which had begun the previous year, was becoming ever more urgent. Oxfam International, with Hobbs at its helm, now saw itself as a ‘global campaigning force’ as well as a humanitarian and development network. In 2002, it opened a new un advocacy office in New York headed by Nicola Reindorp, who had grown up as an Oxfam policy adviser on the seminal Great Lakes crises of the 1990s, and had done more than most to popularise the idea of ‘forgotten crises’, neglected by the world, with a much-read paper on that subject in 1999. Perhaps not by coincidence she would go on, after Oxfam, to become the Advocacy Director of the Global Centre on R2P. In 2005, Oxfam chose the responsibility to protect as one of its headline goals to promote ahead of the un World Summit that September – not just as a means to prevent the dreadful failures of Rwanda and Bosnia, but because R2P’s multiple responsibilities to prevent, rebuild and react fitted so well with Oxfam’s dedication to long-term development as well as humanitarian action. In the months before the Summit, Oxfam then worked with the other ngos campaigning for R2P’s endorsement, as well as the governments of Australia, Canada, the Netherlands, the UK and others. When the Summit eventually came in September, it filled a New York plaza near the un with hundreds of symbolic gravestones emblazoned with the words ‘never again’. And when the Summit ended, endorsing R2P in its final outcome document, Oxfam declared it a ‘significant stride towards ending the obscene levels of civilian suffering in today's conflict zones’.10 In the next few years, Oxfam’s global advocacy to protect civilians was strongly framed in R2P terms, even though the difficulty of turning the World Summit’s outcome into reality was already becoming clear. In 2008, Oxfam relaunched its humanitarian campaigning with a report, ‘For a Safer Tomorrow’, 10 Oxfam International, Oxfam International Annual Report 2005, p. 8, http://cid.bcrp.gob .pe/biblio/Papers/Oxfam/annual_report_2005.pdf, accessed 22 October 2013. which berated the fact that ‘one leading member of the Security Council after another prioritises its narrow interests and alliances over its Responsibility to Protect.’11 Despite that, Oxfam was still very optimistic about R2P, arguing strongly that ‘in a world where security threats are global, upholding the Responsibility to Protect is the rational [as well as ethical] choice’.12 In 2009, it became one of the founding members of the International Coalition for the Responsibility to Protect13 (alone among major humanitarian organisations). In the same years after 2005, Oxfam’s programmes and advocacy around the world were continuing to work on the protection of civilians, in some cases more than ever before. In 2007, Oxfam GB reviewed how it had gradually increased its focus on protecting civilians since those landmark crises of the 1990s, and decided to mainstream protection into all its humanitarian work. In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), it created a network among existing civil society organisations in North and South Kivu, to survey the threats facing local communities,14 and to support what became 56 ‘protection committees’ to lobby the Congolese authorities to meet them. In its high-profile enthusiasm for R2P, Oxfam was unique among leading humanitarian agencies. But this protection work on the ground was part of the wide trend among humanitarian agencies to accept that they did in fact all have some responsibility to protect, or at least to do what they could to protect civilians. In 2009, most of the largest international networks, gathered together in the Steering Committee for Humanitarian Response,15 agreed their first common guidance on protection, and in 2011, the internationally-recognised Sphere standards for humanitarian response – yet another child of the Great Lakes crises of the 1990s – were revised to include, for the first time, a substantial 11 12 13 14 15 Oxfam International, For a Safer Tomorrow: protecting civilians in a multipolar world (Oxfam International, 2008), p. 12, http://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/ for-a-safertomorrow-0809.pdf. Ibid, p. 8. International Coalition for the Responsibility to Protect (icrtoP), ‘Home Page’, http:// www.responsibilitytoprotect.org/, accessed 23 October 2013. These annual assessments have continued ever since. For the latest, please see: Oxfam International, Commodities of War: communities speak out on the true cost of conflict in eastern drc, Oxfam Briefing Paper 164 (Oxfam International, November 2012), http:// www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/bp164-commodities-of-wardrc-protection -201112-en.pdf, accessed 23 October 2013. The Steering Committee for Humanitarian Response (schr) is an alliance of act Alliance, Care International, Caritas Internationalis, the International Committee of the Red Cross, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Lutheran World Federation, Oxfam International, Save the Children and World Vision. section on protection.16 Their responsibility to protect (note small case) had entered the humanitarian mainstream, after the wide spectrum of humanitarian agencies had been developing for more than fifteen years, intellectually and programmatically – with a stronger and stronger focus on protection – out of the same searing experience of the 1990s from which the Responsibility to Protect (large case) also developed. That does not of course mean that many humanitarian agencies have ever given R2P overt support; they have not. And, sadly, it was around the time that the new Sphere and SCHR guidance on protection was emerging that even R2P’s most enthusiastic supporters were finding it difficult to point to practical changes, in real crises, that the principle was bringing about. In common with many humanitarian ngos, a large part of what Oxfam had done to try to protect civilians had always been advocacy. To begin with at least, in the years following 2005, this advocacy on a number of crises specifically invoked the responsibility to protect of the relevant government, international community or both. In February 2007, Oxfam authored a paper for a coalition of 65 Ugandan and international ngos, the network of Civil Society Organisations for Peace in Northern Uganda. The paper called on Uganda’s government to provide ‘properly trained security’ for the thousands of displaced people returning to their homes after two decades of conflict – specifically ‘as part its government’s responsibility to protect its citizens.17 In the same month, February 2007, Oxfam lobbied the un Security Council on the crisis in DRC. It argued against any premature withdrawal of the un peacekeeping mission (then called M O N U C ) in the country, and reminded Council members that the mission was ‘an expression of their responsibility to protect’ (words that the Council had signally not used about MONUC itself).18 At the same time, however, it was painfully obvious in 2007, as it always had been, that R2P was actively supported by only a small number of governments, and open to misuse even by them. In 2008, that became even clearer when the 16 17 18 The Sphere Project, The Sphere Handbook: Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Humanitarian Response (Geneva: Sphere Project, 2011), http://www.sphereproject.org/ handbook/, accessed 23 October 2013. Civil Society Coalition for Peace in Northern Uganda (csopnu), ‘Between Hope and Fear in Northern Uganda: Challenges on the ground and urgent need for peace’ (Joint Agency, February 2007), p. 5, http://policy-practice.oxfam.org.uk/publications/between-hope -and-fear-in-northern-uganda-challenges-on-the-ground-and-urgent-ne111963, accessed 23 October 2013. Oxfam International, A Fragile Future: Why scaling down monuc too soon could spell disas- ter for the Congo, Oxfam Briefing Paper 97 (Oxfam International, February 2007), p. 7, http://www.oxfam.org/fr/node/760, accessed 23 October 2013. French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner suggested that the world not only had a responsibility (sic) to help the victims of cyclone Nargis in Burma, but that the Responsibility to Protect reinforced this.19 Along with many others, Oxfam was highly sceptical that R2P had been developed for crises like Nargis (and of the idea that military airdrops might be the best way to get aid to its victims). By the end of the decade, Oxfam did not have the ‘buyer’s remorse’ that R2P’s supporters identified among a number of governments.20 But it found virtually no occasions where its advocacy on specific humanitarian crises – as opposed to broad global calls – could invoke R2P for any positive purpose. And this was before the controversy and dissension over Libya, even among R2P supporters,21 fuelled this caution further, and seemed to make international action to uphold R2P – and perhaps even the protection of civilians as well – more contested concepts than ever before. As outlined above, the difficult terrain for R2P existed long before 2011; in that sense, the challenge to implementing it now is far more than the media cliché of the ‘shadow of Libya’. But two years on there is little doubt that Libya has made international action to uphold R2P a less accepted concept, not because the un Security Council invoked it, but because the Council was widely seen to lose control of how the ensuing military action seemed to morph from protecting civilians to helping to topple a government, that the connection between those two aims was far from clear, and that, two years on, the fate of Libya is decisively precarious. Since 2011, international dissension on Syria has done nothing to suggest that R2P has yet become a powerful argument to change most government’s policies. As a result, it plays no part in Oxfam’s specific advocacy to see civilians better protected in real crises. Tragically, this caution does not reflect any lack of mass atrocities or violations of the R2P crimes agreed at the World Summit. The brutal carnage in Syria is testament to that. Oxfam still works in almost all the countries where the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect identifies that ‘populations are experiencing, or are at risk of, genocide, war crimes, 19 20 21 M. Bernard Kouchner, article published in Le Monde newspaper, 20 May 2008, http:// www.ambafrance-uk.org/Bernard-Kouchner-onBurma-disaster.html, accessed 23 October 2013. Ramesh Thakur, ‘Should the un invoke the ‘Responsibility to Protect’?’, The Globe and Mail, 8 May 2008, http://www.responsibilitytoprotect.org/index.php/component/content/ article/172-asia-pacific/1666-ramesh-thakur-should-the-un-invoke-theresponsibility -to-protect, accessed 23 October 2013. Simon Adams, Libya and the Responsibility to Protect, Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect Occasional Paper No. 3, October 2012, p. 3, http://www.globalr2p.org/media/ files/libyaandr2poccasionalpaper1.pdf, accessed 23 October 2013. crimes against humanity or ethnic cleansing.’22 Nor does it reflect any existential contradiction between humanitarianism and R2P. Little could be more humanitarian than to protect civilians from mass atrocities. R2P’s endorsement in 2005 was, as Oxfam wrote shortly afterwards, ‘the most important reaffirmation’ of some of international humanitarian law’s basic principles,23 and that remains true. Humanitarian advocacy, however, is about seeking practical impact as well as upholding principles, as indeed all humanitarian action must be. That is why, since 2008 at least, even Oxfam has made little use of the responsibility to protect to advocate in specific crises (or indeed to frame its programmes to help protect civilians on the ground). The early attempts after 2005 to do so have essentially dwindled away. At the same time, the protection of civilians remains at the heat of Oxfam’s humanitarian advocacy. At the United Nations, it actively lobbies on that theme, including around the Security Council’s bi-annual protection of civilians debates, most recently in February 2013. But rather than invoke R2P as part of that lobbying, it – like others including the un Secretary-General himself – has been careful to distinguish R2P from the wider agenda to protect civilians in armed conflicts. This is not only because of differences in concepts or processes (the un having focused on the protection of civilians for years before the World Summit endorsed R2P in 2005) but also for fear of ‘doubling the controversy’ since both R2P and the protection of civilians arouse suspicion in some governments’ eyes. In humanitarian crises around the world, Oxfam advocates for better protection of civilians, probably more than ever before. In the Kivu provinces of eastern DRC, for example, it stresses the responsibility of both the Congolese state and the international community to protect civilians, but none of that has recently been framed in terms of R2P. In 2011 and 2012, Oxfam’s country team did not even talk about it as they planned their advocacy, according to Sam Dixon, one of Oxfam’s policy staff based in Goma, the eastern Congolese city that M23 rebels took in November 2012.24 Wherever Oxfam advocates to protect, that same caution now applies, and is likely to apply for as long as the governments that advocacy is seeking to persuade are (in large part) suspicious of R2P. In the same month, November 2012, that the M23 rebels took Goma, the un review of its role in Sri Lanka in 22 Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect, ‘Populations at Risk’, http://www 23 24 .globalr2p.org/regions/, accessed 23 October 2013. Oxfam International, For a Safer Tomorrow, p. 6. Interview with the author, Oxford, 1 February 2013. 2008-9 summed up an attitude towards R2P that seems now shared far beyond that country. It had become – in the closing stages of Sri Lanka’s longrunning war – so contentious as ‘to nullify its potential’.25 The un and others have drawn many lessons from that experience, but most humanitarian workers around the world, even those who put a high priority on protecting civilians, continue to be cautious about invoking R2P in their work, because of two principal concerns. Firstly, that invoking R2P on specific crises may deliver few positive results. And secondly that, in some countries at least, it could simply fuel the hostility to Western aid workers and Western-based humanitarian agencies that many now feel. It would be wrong to apply such caution to advocating for the protection of civilians itself. That broad advocacy is central to the kind of humanitarian organisation that Oxfam wants to be. It would be impossible to advocate for the protection of civilians without using that discourse – the ‘protection of civilians’ – even if it too can provoke suspicion among some. R2P is not indispensable in the same way, and its use must be justified by the practical results doing so is likely to produce. R2P’s true potential is not the subject of this article. Indeed it may be a generation before anyone can fairly evaluate it. But while seldom if ever mentioning R2P in specific crises, Oxfam continues to support it as an important international norm. And this combination of global support on the one hand, and caution on specifics on the other, is not extraordinary but typical of a multi-mandate organisation that seeks to combine operational humanitarian work on the ground with advocacy to tackle both immediate suffering and the longer-term causes of humanitarian crises. Over the same years that R2P has been a live concept, Oxfam’s approach to the International Criminal Court has evolved in rather the same way. One the one hand, it continues to support the Court, while on the other it has become increasingly cautious about any association with its specific investigations. The idea of the icc was yet another product of the liberal internationalism of the 1990s. In 1997, a year before the Rome Statute agreed that the Court should come into existence, Oxfam described its ‘vitally important’ purpose ‘to send a clear message to those who commit appalling acts, in their quest for economic or political gain, that such crimes will be punished.’26 But since the I’CCs first investigations begun in 2004 Oxfam became increasingly aware of the risks of being associated with them, as the Court tried to 25 26 United Nations, ‘Report of the Secretary-General’s Internal Review Panel on United Nations Action in Sri Lanka’, November 2012, http://www.un.org/News/dh/infocus/Sri_Lanka/ The_Internal_Review_Panel_report_on_Sri_Lanka.pdf, accessed 24 October 2013. Cairns, A Safer Future, p. 98. bring to justice suspects from where Oxfam was working on the ground. In 2010 – by when investigations had been launched in DRC, Uganda, Kenya and elsewhere – Oxfam set out a new position to make clear that it did ‘not, how- ever, cooperate with the ICC’s specific investigations or prosecutions, pass information to the ICC Prosecutor’s Office, or comment on any specific investigations or prosecutions.’ The reason it gave was that ‘[s]uch cooperation could compromise Oxfam’s ability to provide life-saving humanitarian assistance wherever it is needed. In today’s current conflicts, it poses too great a risk.’27 In a somewhat similar way, Oxfam has campaigned for global rules on the use and trade in arms since 1993, when it first accepted the ICRC’s invitation to join its humanitarian campaign to ban landmines. Since 2003, it has been a leading light among the ngos that have pressed for the international arms trade treaty,28 which the un General Assembly eventually agreed in April 2013.29 This has been very much based on Oxfam’s experience of how uncontrolled arms sustain the armed violence at the heart of many humanitarian crises. And on some occasions, Oxfam has highlighted that impact on particular crises, such as the devastating consequences in Mali and beyond of the exodus of Libyan arms following the fall of Qadhafi.30 But by and large arms control plays little part of Oxfam’s advocacy on specific crises, and Oxfam’s programmes on the ground include no work directly connected to controlling arms. In other words, Oxfam’s relationship with R2P – global support combined with specifics caution – reflects a wider approach to managing the tensions inherent in multi-mandate organisations. Global calls to build new international norms are not only an attempt to reduce the suffering witnessed in humanitarian crises on the ground. They also reflect a vision of a world in which international humanitarian law and international norms like R2P are 27 28 29 30 Oxfam International, oi Policy Compendium Note on the International Criminal Court (Oxfam International, April 2010), p. 1, http://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/ oi_hum_policy_icc_270510.pdf, accessed 24 October 2013. Debbie Hillier and Brian Wood, Shattered Lives: the case for tough international arms con- trol (London and Oxford: Amnesty International and Oxfam International, 2003), http:// controlarms.org/wordpress/wpcontent/uploads/2011/02/Shattered-lives-the-case-for -tough-international-arms-control.pdf, accessed 24 October 2013. United Nations News Centre, ‘un General Assembly approves global arms trade treaty’, 2 April 2013, ‘http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=44539&Cr=arms+trade &Cr1=#.UV1ozKKmiJY, accessed 24 October 2013. Martin Butcher, ‘Hunger in the Sahel and international arms control: what’s the link?’, blog on Oxfam’s From Poverty to Power pages, 26 April 2012, http://www.oxfamblogs.org/ fp2p/?s=Martin+Butcher&x=0&y=0, accessed 24 October 2013. better respected. In both those senses, they are as humanitarian as anything humanitarian agencies can do. But building international norms are long-term goals that do not, and should not compromise humanitarian agencies’ ability to relieve suffering here and now – both through humanitarian advocacy that invokes the language it needs to achieve results, and other humanitarian work. In 2012, Oxfam defined its ‘personality’ as that of a ‘practical visionary’,31 and this sometimes challenging combination can be seen in its approach to R2P as much as any- thing else. It is humanitarian and visionary, in its judgement, to advocate for global changes that could help build a world in which international humanitarian law is respected more than it now is. Oxfam’s support for R2P, the ICC, banning landmines and controlling arms have all manifested that basic idea. But to be humanitarian and practical – and perhaps to be humanitarian at all – means never putting a global ideal, however noble, before what will reduce real human suffering now. When it supports the ICC, for example, in general while distancing itself from anything it does in a particular country, that is not a contradiction, but a choice. The practical judgement on whether to invoke R2P or not in specific advocacy is also similar, to some extent, to that the eternal dilemma of multi- mandate organisations: whether to ‘speak out’ or not in the face of mass atrocities. Since 1996, most recently revised in 2009, Oxfam has developed a series of guidelines to try to weigh up when the humanitarian result of that is likely to be lesser or greater than that of the operational work that might be threatened. That means weighing the possible consequences of different and perhaps mutually exclusive courses of action. How many lives could be saved, for example, by providing safe water? How many of them could not be saved by another agency if Oxfam is expelled? How many could be saved if speaking out encouraged, for instance, the un to take effective action? And what is the evidence that speaking out could help achieve that result? There are few questions that both have to be answered – to explore every possible way to achieve humanitarian results – and are at the same time so difficult to do answer, or to get right. In Darfur, for example, Oxfam GB chose not to speak out, or at least not as powerfully as it could, and decided to limit its direct advocacy specifically in order to protect its operational work. That caution did nothing to prevent it being expelled in 2009, along with twelve other international ngos including the US and UK branches of Save the Children, and the French and Dutch ones 31 Oxfam Great Britain (gb), ‘Oxfam’s new Brand’, http://www.oxfam.org.uk/what-we-do/ about-us/content/new-brand, accessed 24 October 2013. of Médecins Sans Frontières. It seems indeed that the Sudanese government had different complaints against different ngos, accusing several (not including Oxfam) of gathering intelligence on the ground, with little evidence to suggest how much NGOs’ advocacy provoked the government’s response. The practical judgement on R2P, however, is probably far simpler than that perennially painful choice on speaking out. It may be difficult to judge the repercussions a humanitarian agency may face if it challenges a government, for example, to uphold its responsibility to protect, be they restrictions, obstacles to access those in need, or perhaps nothing. But it is probably far easier to judge whether invoking R2P is likely to have any positive effect – influencing a government to change its behaviour (whether that is the government of the country affected, of a neighbour, a regional organisation, or the wider international community). And that is the practical judgement that has to be made, for ethical humanitarian advocacy does not start by asking how to ‘operationalise R2P’ or any other global idea. It starts from identifying the practical actions that must be taken so that vulnerable people get the assistance and protection they need; who has the power to take them; and how to influence them to do so. If invoking R2P would seem to make it more likely to persuade them, humanitarian agencies should do so. If not, not; for while building an international norm is important, it can never be as important as influencing an action that can protect people from atrocities here and now. And, for now at least, that sadly seems the case with almost all governments of crisisaffected countries, their often-crucial neighbours, and the increasingly relevant emerging powers. Western governments, the un Security Council and others can achieve much, and certainly could do far more to help prevent mass atrocities – as in Syria today – than they do. Their responsibility to protect is therefore crucial. But the limits of Western and international action has also become increasingly clear in a world where many affected states may be ‘fragile’ in some respects – particularly their willingness and ability to protect their civilians – but robust and assertive in other respects, including their resistance to international pressure. And where almost every government (except Qadhafi) will have international allies that may undermine united international action. Those limits of international influence are also relevant to the final question that this article will seek to explore: what the development of R2P says for building other new international norms. The achievement of securing endorsement at the 2005 World Summit should certainly not be underestimated. Oxfam approached the Summit working with a large number of ngos campaigning on many different issues over the Summit’s dizzyingly wide agenda. None of them apart from the R2P campaign was successful. International NGO campaigns have achieved some spectacular results, but – R2P apart – the World Summit stands as a reminder that pressing disunited governments to agree on anything radically useful can often be depressingly difficult. But the challenges in establishing R2P since then suggest the limits of what disproportionately Western alliances of ngos and governments can achieve in the current state of international relations. When R2P was being developed in the late 1990s, it seemed that broadly similar alliances to ban landmines, set up the ICC and save child soldiers could change the world. Some of them have had a very significant impact. From 2009 to 2011, the annual incidence of landmine casualties was about a third the level it had been a decade before, though the 2012 Landmine Monitor had to report that ‘steady decreases in annual casualty rates continued in some of the most mine-affected countries, such as Afghanistan and Cambodia’ had been offset by increases in, for example, Pakistan, South Sudan, and Syria.32 For years, it seemed that the ICC was taking far longer than the landmine ban to have a demonstrable impact, but after its first conviction in 2012 (for conscripting child soldiers in DR Congo) it may eventually be coming of age. Both the landmine ban and ICC, however, were agreed in a very different world from today. In 2000, the ICISS’s main research consultant, Don Hubert (who coordinated the wide range of research papers on which R2P was developed) looked back on the context in which both the landmine ban and ICC had been achieved. ‘It has been argued’, he then wrote: [T]hat the 1990s can be characterized as a neo-idealist period with strong parallels to the decades preceding each of the two world wars. Although the lone superpower remains one of the persistent opponents of recent humanitarian campaigns, there is no doubt that the overall post-Cold War environment has been highly conducive to effective humanitarian advocacy. Less happily he added: ‘[w]hether this will be the case in the years to come remains to be seen,’ and foresaw ‘a less hospitable world order’ for humanitarian advocacy in the years ahead.33 32 33 Landmine and Cluster Munition Monitor, ‘Major findings: global landmine overview 2011–12’, 2012, http://www.themonitor.org/index.php/LM/Press-Room/Landmine -Monitor-Media-Kit/LM12-Major-Findings-EN2, accessed 24 October 2013. Don Hubert, The Landmine Ban; a case study in humanitarian advocacy, Occasional Paper 42 (Providence, RI: Thomas J. Watson Jr. Institute for International Studies, 2000), pp. 70–71, http://www.watsoninstitute.org/pub/op42.pdf, accessed 24 October 2013. Hubert sadly was right. In 2001, the ICISS report he helped produce fell initially on stony ground. Four years later, the World Summit agreement did not dispel the sense that the first decade of this century was very different from the 1990s. International relations had become more divided, over the ‘global war on terror’, the invasion of Iraq, and what to do or not to do on crises such as those in Darfur. The United States’ ‘unipolar moment’ seemed already to be over, replaced by an amorphous, emerging ‘multipolar world’ in which a number of countries were more willing to challenge Western leadership, but not necessarily to lead international action to prevent mass atrocities themselves. In 2011, UN Security Council Resolution 1973 on Libya did not really signal that the world was more united against mass atrocities in most crises than before. Libya was a particular case; Qadhafi was unusually internationally isolated, at least after the uprising against him began. Since then, the divergent reactions to how that un resolution was implemented, and subsequent divisions over Syria, are sad reminders of how elusive effective international unity often is. In April 2013, when 154 nations agreed the world’s first Arms Trade Treaty at the un General Assembly, it was a rare triumph – at least in terms of new international agreements – for the kind of alliance between ngos and governments that had worked on landmines and the ICC. During the same multi-polar decade, many humanitarian agencies have become nervous about their Western heritage as well. They have seen a rising number of attacks on aid workers (though the reasons for this have not been entirely clear) and what has seemed like an increasing assertiveness of governments more willing to put obstacles in their way to reach people in need. While Sudan was expelling ngos in 2009, for example, Sri Lanka was placing many restrictions on their ability to reach civilians fleeing the closing stages of the country’s 25-year civil war.34 And beyond both such extremes, international agencies seem to have faced a rising challenge to their legitimacy, to operate on the ground and to advocate, perhaps part of the trend ‘towards increasing legitimacy of the local and decreasing legitimacy of the international’ that a recent Ditchley Foundation conference on the protection of civilians accurately identified.35 In an everyday way, this means the constant bureaucratic obstacles thrown in the way of humanitarian workers in so many countries – or the Congolese colonel who sat me down in North Kivu, to harangue me about Oxfam exaggerating (in his view) the suffering in his country to justify 34 35 Ban Ki-moon, ‘Report of the Secretary-General on the protection of civilians in armed conflict,’ S/2009/277, 29 May 2009, para. 24. Ditchley Foundation, ‘Protecting civilians in armed conflict’, A note by the Director, 16-18 May 2013, p. 4, http://www.ditchley.co.uk/conferences/past-programme/2010-2019/2013/ protecting-civilians, accessed 24 October 2013. our continued existence.36 At the same time, one crisis evaluation after another over the last ten years has criticised international humanitarian responses for taking too little notice of local partners, be they state or civil society. After the earthquake in Haiti in 2010, this was said yet again.37 Partly as a result, a ‘new business model’ for humanitarian action has become widely suggested, ‘[with a] greater role for Southern as well as national and local ngos’.38 In short, in the years since R2P was first developed, international relations are more splintered, the Western governments that have been R2P’s greatest (though not only) supporters are relatively weaker, and international humanitarian agencies are increasingly conscious of the need to engage with Southern governments and civil society, and in global not largely-Western alliances. And despite its supporters’ continued efforts, R2P is still widely seen as a concept primarily linked to military intervention. Over twenty years, humanitarian agencies’ advocacy for protection in general, and Oxfam’s support for R2P in particular, has been driven, in part at least, by a determination never again to be the ‘humanitarian alibi’ for political inaction as the humanitarian community was in Bosnia. That determination is equally matched however now with the determination not be an alibi for the abuse of R2P to justify inappropriate military action – for example, no-fly zones over Syria. Not because military action to protect civilians is inherently wrong, but because military action where the benefits do not clearly outweigh the risks is too easily justified by loose talk of both ‘R2P’ and ‘humanitarian’, and that is true in Syria as in countless crises before. What does that say for the future? When R2P was agreed at the World Summit in 2005, one wise Canadian diplomat said to me that it was, of course, a twenty-five year project. In other words, we should not expect it to end mass atrocities now. He was obviously right. R2P may indeed still have a transformational effect on international relations. In 2013, with atrocities in so many crises, the only honest conclusion is that we do not know. But what we can be more certain of is that in developing any new international norm, governments and ngos alike will want to be substantially more grounded in the South than most of us have been in the past. 36 37 38 Interview with the author, north of Goma, January 2010. Michael Delaney and Jacobo Ocharan, ‘Local Capacity in Humanitarian Response: Vision or Mirage?’, Oxfam America Research Backgrounder series (Boston, MA: Oxfam, May 2012), http://www.oxfamamerica.org/publications/local-capacity-in-humanitarian -response, accessed 24 October 2013. Ahmad Faizal Mohd Perdaus, ‘Doing it Better: transforming human efforts’, mercy Malaysia’s International Humanitarian Conference, Kuala Lumpur, 24–26 November 2011, http://www.mercy.org.my/ihc2011/index.php.