Introduction
 IFALPA – International Federation of
Air Line Pilots’ Associations
• Founded in 1948 with 13 Member Associations
• Today it represents more than 120,000 pilots in
•
near 100 countries globally.
The Global Voice of Pilots.
The Challenge
Montreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO Worldwide Symposium on
Performance of the Air Navigation System
Overview
 Challenge: The Human Factor
 Challenge: Flexibility and
Dynamic Reaction
 Challenge: Buffers and Margins
The Challenge
Montreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO Worldwide Symposium on
Performance of the Air Navigation System
What is: Future ATM?
The Challenge
Montreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO Worldwide Symposium on
Performance of the Air Navigation System
Industry ATM TRANSITION ROADMAP
FOCUS AREA
ENROUTE
EFFICIENCY
Near Term
2005
2006
Medium Term
2008
2010
2012
Long Term
2014
2015
2025
FLEXIBLE AIRSPACE
MANAGEMENT
DYNAMIC AIRSPACE MANAGEMENT
ROUTE
ENHANCE TMA MANAGEMENT
TMA
EFFICIENCY
DYNAMIC TMA MANAGEMENT
ENHANCE RUNWAY OPERATIONS
AIRPORT
EFFICIENCY/
CAPACITY
INTEGRATED TMA/AIRPORT MANAGEMENT
ENHANCE AIRPORT MAMANGEMENT
INCREASE
CAPACITY
VERTICAL
ENROUTE
CAPACITY
COLLABORATIVE SPACING
ATM Operational Concept
ENHANCE
FLEXIBILITY
INCREASE HORIZONTAL CAPACITY
INFORMATION
MANAGEMENT
IMPROVE INFORMATION EXCHANGE
SWIM 1
Baseline
01 Jan 2005
Note: Blocks left of the baseline indicate
implementation has already begun.
The Challenge
Montreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO Worldwide Symposium on
Performance of the Air Navigation System
Global Harmonization
 Everyone promises it
– The reality is different
An example:
CPDLC procedures & message sets
 The only (¿?) truly global
reference: ICAO
The Challenge
Montreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO Worldwide Symposium on
Performance of the Air Navigation System
ICAO Future ATM
Doc 9854
Global Air Navigation Plan
for CNS/ATM Systems
Doc 9750
The Challenge
Montreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO Worldwide Symposium on
Performance of the Air Navigation System
Challenge: Human Factor
IFATS – “Innovative Future Air Transport System Concept”
postulates that an “extremely automated” air
transport system - without pilots and controllers would be more efficient and safer at the same time
than the current ATM System.
The Challenge
Montreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO Worldwide Symposium on
Performance of the Air Navigation System
Challenge: Human Factor
• Is automation “per se” a more efficient and safer
“modus operandi” than a system architecture which
uses the capabilities of the human to its best?
– In reality, to achieve generally accepted low probability
levels for some RNP approach operations, the only
solution is:
Mitigation by procedures. Mitigation to an extent that some
members of certification authorities feel uneasy about it.
• “Extreme automation” will solve everything, “safer”?
This type of presumption cannot be accepted from
scientific organisations “per se” it must be proven!
The Challenge
Montreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO Worldwide Symposium on
Performance of the Air Navigation System
Challenge: Human Factor
 The Human Roll
– Mitigate shortcomings in Technology with
Operational Procedures?
– Special Purpose Codes in ADS-B (NRA)
Unlawful interference: 7500
ADS-B
RCF: 7600
Generic Emergency
Flag
Emergency: 7700
SPI/IDENT
The Challenge
Montreal March 26-30, 2007
BAW012
370
M78
MAVOR
EMG
ICAO Worldwide Symposium on
Performance of the Air Navigation System
Challenge: Human Factor
• Our position – your position?
Future system development should be based
on identified operational requirements.
Consequential system functions should then
be realized by applying the optimum level of
automation.
• The pilot community is ready to support the
scientific groups in identifying this “optimum
level of automation” –
but we are not going to accept “extreme
automation” without any type of human
control as a “white sheet starting point”.
The Challenge
Montreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO Worldwide Symposium on
Performance of the Air Navigation System
ICAO OCD 2.5.4
“There will be dynamic 4-D trajectory
control and negotiated conflict-free
trajectories.”
Is the qualification “dynamic” reflected
in currently foreseen implementations of
4-D trajectory negotiation and control?
The Challenge
Montreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO Worldwide Symposium on
Performance of the Air Navigation System
Challenge: Flexibility
 Any “future system” must be able to react
timely and adequately to disturbances like
late passengers / security of luggage /
unforecast WX changes!
 Adequate dynamic negotiation and
control requires appropriate
communications and planning tools!
The Challenge
Montreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO Worldwide Symposium on
Performance of the Air Navigation System
Challenge: Buffers & Margins
An example: Lateral Navigation
 The 50ies & 60ies:
ATS Route = Air Corridor
 The 70ies & 80ies:
VOR Route Structures:
Adherence to centre line required ICAO Annex 2 (3.6.2.1.1)
 The 90ies and on:
GPS input to navigation solution
The Challenge
Montreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO Worldwide Symposium on
Performance of the Air Navigation System
Challenge: Buffers & Margins
Any accidental loss
of vertical separation
inevitably results in a critical
situation, if not a collision,
because of the extreme accuracy
of GPS based navigation.
The Challenge
Montreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO Worldwide Symposium on
Performance of the Air Navigation System
IFALPA POLICY
 IFALPA believes that the availability of
accurate airborne navigation systems
with the capability to navigate
automatically along lateral offset tracks
should be used so as to reduce the
collision risk in the case of possible loss
of vertical separation in suitable ATS
environments.
The Challenge
Montreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO Worldwide Symposium on
Performance of the Air Navigation System
IFALPA POLICY
 RNAV LATERAL OFFSET TRACKING
 Aircraft with navigation equipment certified and operated
to P-RNAV standards [at least RNP-1 accuracy] should be
allowed and required to navigate offset one nautical mile
right of centerline.
Note: This policy is not in opposition to the current ICAO SLOP
Guidance. In fact, based on this earlier policy statement IFALPA
had supported the development of the ICAO provisions, and calls
now for the extension of its applicability to areas other than
“oceanic and remote continental”.
 On Precision RNAV routes [in RNP-1 en-route airspace],
to allow for safe offset tracking, the offset value should be
taken into account when establishing such routes.
The Challenge
Montreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO Worldwide Symposium on
Performance of the Air Navigation System
IFALPA POLICY
 GNSS EMBEDDED DEFAULT LATERAL OFFSET
 Furthermore, because of the high accuracy and increased
risk of head-on collision invoked by GNSS, to mitigate this
risk IFALPA requires that GNSS referenced airborne
navigation systems have an embedded default lateral
offset.
 This embedded offset, residing in whichever part of the equipment
calculates the tracking, should be
– large enough to reduce the risk of head-on GNSS-to-GNSS
collisions, and
– yet be small enough to be insignificant to the pilots, and the ATC
system, in en-route and terminal procedures.
The Challenge
Montreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO Worldwide Symposium on
Performance of the Air Navigation System
The Tragic Truth
There have been mid-air collisions
that probably could have been averted
if offset tracking had been applied!
The Challenge
Montreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO Worldwide Symposium on
Performance of the Air Navigation System
62nd IFALPA
Conference Statement
 IFALPA calls for urgent implementation of
Strategic Lateral Offset Procedures;
 All States and ICAO Planning and Implementation
Regional Groups (PIRGs) to authorize the ICAO
SLOP in all appropriate airspaces at the earliest
opportunity, and
 ICAO to support States and PIRGs in their efforts
to implement SLOP, and
 ICAO to continue developing advanced offset
tracking procedures (such as the embedded
lateral offset concept).
The Challenge
Montreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO Worldwide Symposium on
Performance of the Air Navigation System
Strategy
 Relax Annex 2 (3.6.2.1.1),
the “on centre line” rule,
to allow offset tracking
as reasonable in the circumstances
 Recognize lateral offset tracking and cater
for it in airspace design and air traffic
management functions of any future ATM
system
The Challenge
Montreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO Worldwide Symposium on
Performance of the Air Navigation System
4D Trajectories
Remember ICAO OCD 2.5.4:
“There will be dynamic 4-D trajectory control
and negotiated conflict-free trajectories.”
The Challenge
Montreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO Worldwide Symposium on
Performance of the Air Navigation System
4D Trajectories
 Can a conflict-free trajectory be calculated over
several hours of flight?
 “Disturbances” – as mentioned previously in the
“flexibility” section - make such an extreme
implementation unreasonable from an operational
perspective.
For example, it does not make sense to delay the
departure of a flight by 30 seconds to resolve a
predicted en-route conflict a couple of hours ahead, or
to achieve a better arrival sequence.
The Challenge
Montreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO Worldwide Symposium on
Performance of the Air Navigation System
ATS Committee Position (1)
 “4D trajectories” based advanced air traffic
management is supported under the following
two conditions:
1) It must be recognized and accepted that
the accuracy of the trajectory prediction
will degrade with the extent of look ahead.
Some people call this “granularity”, some others
rather relate the control mechanisms to appropriate
“time horizons”.
The Challenge
Montreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO Worldwide Symposium on
Performance of the Air Navigation System
ATS Committee Position(2)
2) The 4D clearance it self should always
indicate the necessary compliance value,
depending on the traffic situation.
This may be called a type of “breathing” 4D
definition or spacing requirement (in legacy terms).
Note: It is recognized that to achieve higher capacity in
high demand situations, the user-preferred 4D trajectory
will be subject to modifications through CDM.
The Challenge
Montreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO Worldwide Symposium on
Performance of the Air Navigation System
Evolution: “Breathing” Compliance
 Adherence to speed in general is subject to a 5% margin
(ICAO Annex 2, 3.6.2.2).
 To achieve higher capacity, the application of the
“Mach number technique” may be required.
Temporary changes of speed, for example, when turbulence is
encountered, require amendments to the clearance.
 In a future 4D environment, it should be obvious from
the “contract” to what extent a deviation from the
nominal target value is possible without creating a
conflict with other traffic.
It may even be advantageous to base the overall planning on
reasonable buffer margins to reduce the communication and
coordination workload when short-term deviations are required.
The Challenge
Montreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO Worldwide Symposium on
Performance of the Air Navigation System
IFATS & 4D Trajectories
 A kind of “breathing” compliance is part of the
IFATS program 4D trajectory management:
The Challenge
Montreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO Worldwide Symposium on
Performance of the Air Navigation System
IFATS & 4D Trajectories
 The individual aircraft operates within a
“freedom bubble”, allowing reasonable
trajectory and speed modifications
without negotiating a new contract
This allows maintaining variable, optimum
Mach numbers, and reaction to unforeseen
events to some degree.
 Separation from other traffic is effected
by conflict-free outer “safety bubbles”
The Challenge
Montreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO Worldwide Symposium on
Performance of the Air Navigation System
Conclusion
 Global Harmonisation - needs to be
achieved on System Planning level as well as
during local / Regional implementations
 Automation not being a value “per se”
 “Flexibility” and ability for “Dynamic
Reaction” as properties of ATM
 Recognition of the benefits of appropriate
“buffers and margins” for both:
– Safety, and
– Stability of Operation
The Challenge
Montreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO Worldwide Symposium on
Performance of the Air Navigation System
Captain Miguel Marín
IFALPA ATS Committee Chairman
miguel@emarin.org
The Challenge
Montreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO Worldwide Symposium on
Performance of the Air Navigation System