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ECONOMIC STATISTICS
1ST DAY OF CLASS
1st Semester 2013/2014
INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS AND DEVELOPMENT
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Textbooks
Textbooks!! Required

C. DOUGHERTY, Introduction to econometrics (fourth edition), Oxford University
Press, 2011 , Only the following chapters: 1,2,3,4,5,6,7

E. GIOVANNINI, Understanding Economic Statistics. An OECD perspective,
OCSE, 2008, Paris (http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/37/12/38451313.pdf). Only the
following pages (Chapter 2: pp. 42-57, Chapter 3: pp.66-76, Chapter 4 pp. 161-165 and
pp.170-172)

G. GOZZI, Economic Statistics (part one and part two), Slides on all topics of
the course (available at photocopying office)


Also, visit
http://econ.lse.ac.uk/courses/ec220/G/ec212.html

Further readings will be supplied during the course
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http://www.oup.com/uk/orc/bin/9780199567089/
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SLIDES
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As prerequisites
Recommended - 2 undergraduate courses in statistics
in addition to a good command of algebra. You should
have some notion about what random variables are,
what a probability distribution is, what a statistic is, and
what a hypothesis test is.
 These are things that we will cover, but we move
through them quickly. If you haven’t learned about these
before, you’ll never be able to keep up. Previous
experience of linear regression is not a prerequisite but
would be very helpful.

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Communication Skills for IBD

This year you have the possibility to follow:

Workshop «Introducing economics and statistics
in English»

Statistics: Dr. Lara BERZIERI
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TIMES OF LESSONS
Monday
 Tuesday
 Wednesday

11-13 classroom K1
9-11 classroom K1
9-11 classroom K1
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Office hours
Tuesday
 Wednesday

11-13
11-13
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General Rules

I do not collect signatures for attendance.
Those who are not interested can stay in bed, go
to the park or the bar.
Do not talk. If you have questions, I am here to
listen. Students who disturb the class will be
asked to leave the classroom.
Please!! Turn off mobile phones
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Quiz and participation in class
But Attendance is crucial
 Class and quizzes cannot be made up
 Will go over all software in class
 Other than this, participation in class also
encouraged by participation grade
 Both are gifts to the conscientious student
 Designed with student in mind

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Assessment methods
Written final exam.
The oral examination is optional - after the
compulsory written exam for students
who pass the written exam (at least
15/30)- and might increase or decrease the
overall result
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Grades
Your grade in this class will be based on your
performance in the final exam and on result in works in
Group or Empirical Assignments during the period of
lessons.
The final assessment, for students who pass the
written exam (at least 15/30), is the sum of the vote
in the written exam and the scores (between 0-5)
on work groups .
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Nature of Economic Data
 Generally not handed to us, or experimental, but
takes time, money and effort to collect and
disseminate
• By some computer assisted bureaucracy, now
 Economic data, more or less accurately, measure
some economic phenomenon
 Are a given in the sense that, once obtained, they
cannot be altered
• In this sense, serve as our knowledge of economic reality
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Economic Data

Economic Statistics wants to explain social
phenomena and be applicable
 Requires knowledge of history, politics, institutions,
economic theory and DATA
 “Data:” etymology from the Latin, dare, to give
(singular datum, plural data)
In Chapter two are presented the MAIN
PRODUCERS OF STATISTICAL DATA:
NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL SOURCES
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Software
No prior knowledge of any software required
 Hands-on instruction on your laptop of all
software used: GRETL and Excel
 Main program GRETL was written by Prof.
Cottrell.
 Is free to the user and continuously updated

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Class and Text Reading Schedule



Please not that the syllabus is an outline of topics I wish to
cover - I may not cover all of them - and I may not cover them
in the order listed . It is VERY IMPORTANT to keep yourself
informed about what is going on in the class at a particular
time.
Again, it is important to bear in mind that parts of each class will
be spent on discussing problems that I will assign from time to
time or in answering questions.
It is very important that you keep up with the material and
take part in class discussions. I want this to be a semester
long dialogue between us. Please feel free to ask questions
during class and before the lecture starts and/or after it
ends.
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How do we define our course
Economic
Theory
Economic
Statistics
Methodological
Statistics
Testing Theory
Data
Forecasting
Policy Advice
Economic theory makes statements or hypothesis that are mostly qualitative in nature. For example they would
say that increased income would increase consumption. This Economic theory postulates a relationship but does
not provide any numerical measure of relationship between the two.
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1. Statement of Theory or Hypothesis

Keynes states that on average, consumers increase their consumption as their
income increases, but not as much as the increase in their income (MPC < 1).
2. Specification of the Statistical Model of Consumption (singleequation model)
Y = β1 + β2X
0 < β2 < 1
Y = consumption expenditure and (dependent variable)
X = income, (independent, or explanatory variable)
β1 = the intercept
β2 = the slope coefficient

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The slope coefficient β2 measures the MPC (Marginal Propensity to Consume).
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The results can be viewed in a Cartesian diagram
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Geometrically,
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WHY IS ECONOMIC STATISTICS A SEPARATE DISCIPLINE?
The subject deserves to be studied in its own right for the following reasons:
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
Economic theory makes statements or hypotheses that are mostly
qualitative in nature (the law of demand), the law does not provide any
numerical measure of the relationship. This is the job of the economic
statistician or the econometrician.

In English-speaking countries econometrics and economic statistics are
two different disciplines.

Econometrics is mainly interested in the empirical verification of
economic theory.

Economic statistics is mainly concerned with collecting, processing, and
presenting economic data in the form of charts and tables.

But in Italy economic statistics also deals with the empirical verification
of economic theory.
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Course Material
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



Remember No text only slides
All readings posted on the website or handed out in
class
Website should become familiar to students
 http://economia.unipr.it/docenti/home.asp?id=43
Become familiar with it
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http://economia.unipr.it/docenti/home.
asp?id=43
giorgio.gozzi@unipr.it
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Features of gretl
Easy intuitive interface (now 6 languages)
• A wide variety of least-squares and maximum-likelihood
estimators, including systems estimators
• Single commands to launch procedures:
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Features of gretl
Best of all it’s free!
• Open source philosophy
– You are free to download and use gretl
– You are invited to contribute additional
features to the gretl project
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Accessing gretl
Access to gretl can be found at the
website:
http://gretl.sourceforge.net/index.html
• which provides instructions on
downloading the program and reference
manuals.
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Recommended readings
 L. C. ADKINS, Using Gretl for Principles of Econometrics, 3rd Edition. Version
1.311, 2010 (http://www.learneconometrics.com/gretl/ebook.pdf)
 Manual for doing the computer exercises in Dougherty, C. Introduction to
Econometrics (Oxford: Oxford University Press, fourth edition 2011) using gretl
http://fdslive.oup.com/www.oup.com/orc/resources/busecon/economics/dougherty4
e/01student/gretl/gretlmanual.pdf
Teaching methods Lectures and tutorials using Gretl:
 http://www.american.edu/provost/ctrl/upload/Gretl.pdf
 http://spot.colorado.edu/~mcnownr/gretl_lab/index.html
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Accompanying datasets
On gretl homepage, click on “data for gretl” to see list of
available datasets for teaching and research:
• Datasets from econometrics textbooks
• Large macroeconomic datasets from St. Louis Fed,
Penn World Tables
• Other specialized data sets.
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questionnaire to fill in
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