CURVE FITTING Student Notes ENGR 351 Numerical Methods for Engineers Southern Illinois University Carbondale College of Engineering Instructor: L.R. Chevalier, Ph.D., P.E. Specific Growth Rate, m Applications Need to determine parameters for saturation-growth rate model to characterize microbial kinetics Food Available, S m m max S Ks S Applications T ( o C) 0 10 20 30 0 Epilimnion 5 z (m ) 10 Thermocline 15 20 25 30 Hypolimnion Applications Interpolation of data What is kinematic viscosity at 7.5º C? v, 10-2 cm 2/s 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 0 10 20 T(oC) 30 T (oC) 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 v, 10-2 (cm2/s) 1.7923 1.5615 1.3874 1.2396 1.1168 1.0105 0.9186 f(x) Can you suggest another? x We want to find the best “fit” of a curve through the data. Here we see : a) Least squares fit b) Linear interpolation Material to be Covered in Curve Fitting Linear Regression Polynomial Regression Multiple Regression General linear least squares Nonlinear regression Interpolation Lagrange polynomial Coefficients of polynomials (CollocationPolynomial Fit) Splines Specific Study Objectives Understand the fundamental difference between regression and interpolation and realize why confusing the two could lead to serious problems Understand the derivation of linear least squares regression and be able to assess the reliability of the fit using graphical and quantitative assessments. Specific Study Objectives Know how to linearize data by transformation Understand situations where polynomial, multiple and nonlinear regression are appropriate Understand the general matrix formulation of linear least squares Understand that there is one and only one polynomial of degree n or less that passes exactly through n+1 points Specific Study Objectives Realize that more accurate results are obtained if data used for interpolation is centered around and close to the unknown point Recognize the liabilities and risks associated with extrapolation Understand why spline functions have utility for data with local areas of abrupt change Least Squares Regression Simplest is fitting a straight line to a set of paired observations (x1,y1), (x2, y2).....(xn, yn) The resulting mathematical expression is y = ao + a1 x + e We will consider the error introduced at each data point to develop a strategy for determining the “best fit” equations Determining the Coefficients n x xi 2 2 i ao y a1 x x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 y 9 7 5 4 3 1 0 Let’s consider where this comes from. 10 9 8 7 f(x) a1 n xi yi xi y i 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 2 4 x 6 8 Sum of the Residual Error, Sr n n i 1 i 1 Sr e 2i yi a o a1xi 2 f(x) x Sum of the Residual Error, Sr n n i 1 i 1 Sr e 2i yi a o a1xi 2 Note: In this equation yi is the raw data point (dependent data) associated with xi (independent data) f(x) x Sum of the Residual Error, Sr n n i 1 i 1 Sr e 2i yi a o a1xi f(x) 2 A line that models this data is: y = ao + a1 x x Sum of the Residual Error, Sr n n i 1 i 1 Sr e 2i yi a o a1xi 2 f(x) x Sum of the Residual Error, Sr n n i 1 i 1 Sr e 2i yi a o a1xi 2 f(x) yi a o a1xi x Determining the Coefficients To determine the values for ao and a1, differentiate with respect to each coefficient Sr 2 yi ao a1xi ao Sr 2 yi ao a1xi xi a1 Note: we have simplified the summation symbols. What mathematics technique will minimize Sr? Determining the Coefficients Sr 2 yi ao a1xi ao Sr 2 yi ao a1xi xi a1 Setting the derivative equal to zero will minimizing Sr. If this is done, the equations can be expressed as: 0 yi ao a1xi 0 yi xi ao xi a1xi2 Determining the Coefficients 0 yi ao a1xi 0 yi xi ao xi a1xi2 Note: a o nao We have two simultaneous equations, with two unknowns, ao and a1. What are these equations? (hint: only place terms with ao and a1 on the LHS of the equations) What are the final equations for ao and a1? Determining the Coefficients nao xi a1 yi 2 x a x i o i a1 xi yi a1 n xi yi xi y i n x xi ao y a1x 2 i 2 These first two equations are called the normal equations Example Determine the linear equation for the following data y 9 7 5 4 3 1 0 8 7 f(x) x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 10 9 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 2 4 x Strategy 6 8 Strategy Set up a table x y xy x2 Sx Sy Sxy Sx2 From these values determine the average values of x and y (x- and ybar) Calculate a0 and a1 Error f(x) x The most common measure of the “spread” of a sample is the standard deviation about the mean: St yi y 2 St sy n 1 Error Coefficient of determination r2: St Sr r St 2 r is the correlation coefficient Error St Sr r St 2 The following signifies that the line explains 100 percent of the variability of the data: Sr = 0 r = r2 = 1 If r = r2 = 0, then Sr = St and the fit is invalid. Example Determine the R2 value for the following data y 9 7 5 4 3 1 0 8 7 f(x) x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 10 9 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 2 4 x Strategy 6 8 Strategy Complete table x y xy x2 Sx Sy Sxy Sx2 Calculate Sr, St Determine R2 ymodel e2 (yyavg)2 SSr SSt Consider the following four sets of data Data 1 10 8.04 8 6.95 13 7.58 9 8.81 11 8.33 14 9.96 6 7.24 4 4.26 12 10.84 7 4.82 5 5.68 Data 2 10 9.14 8 8.14 13 8.74 9 8.77 11 9.26 14 8.10 6 6.13 4 3.10 12 9.13 7 7.26 5 4.74 Data 3 10 7.46 8 6.77 13 12.74 9 7.11 11 7.81 14 8.84 6 6.08 4 5.39 12 8.15 7 6.42 5 5.73 Data 4 8 6.58 8 5.76 8 7.71 8 8.84 8 8.47 8 7.04 8 5.25 19 12.50 8 5.56 8 7.91 8 6.89 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 y = 0.5001x + 3.0001 R2 = 0.6665 2 y = 0.5x + 3.0009 2 0 R2 = 0.6662 0 0 5 10 15 0 5 x 10 15 x 14 14 12 12 10 10 8 y y 8 6 6 4 4 y = 0.4997x + 3.0025 2 2 y = 0.4999x + 3.0017 R2 = 0.6667 2 R = 0.6663 0 0 0 5 10 x 15 0 5 10 x 15 20 Common Sense!!!! y 14 y 14 Linearization of non-linear relationships Some data is simply ill-suited for linear least squares regression.... or so it appears. f(x) x EXPONENTIAL EQUATIONS P Linearize P Po e rt t ln P intercept = ln P0 slope = r why? t P P0e rt ln P ln P0e rt ln P0 lne rt ln P0 rt Can you see the similarity with the equation for a line: y = a o + a1 x lnP intercept = ln Po slope = r t P P0e rt ln P ln P0e rt ln P0 lne rt ln P0 rt ln P intercept = ln P0 After taking the natural log of the y-data, perform linear regression. From this regression: The value of ao will give us ln (P0). Hence, P0 = eao The value of a1 will give us r directly. slope = r t Q POWER EQUATIONS Q cH a (Flow over a weir) log Q H log H Here we linearize the equation by taking the log of H and Q data. What is the resulting intercept and slope? Q cH a log Q logcH a log c log H a log c a log H log Q slope = a log H intercept = log c Q cH a log Q logcH a So how do we get c and a from performing regression on the log H vs log Q data? From : y = ao + a1x log c log H a log c a log H ao = log c log Q c = 10ao slope = a a1 = a log H intercept = log c SATURATION-GROWTH RATE EQUATION m m m max S 1/m slope = Ks/mmax intercept = 1/mmax 1/ S S Ks S Here, m is the growth rate of a microbial population, mmax is the maximum growth rate, S is the substrate or food concentration, Ks is the substrate concentration at a value of m = mmax/2 Example Given the data below, determine the coefficients a and b for the equation y=axb 300 250 y 3.1 26 110 250 200 y x 1 2 3 4 Raw Data 150 100 50 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 x Strategy Strategy Start a table. For y=axb you need a log-log table and graph. x y log x log y Perform linear regression on the loglog data Based on y = a0 + a1x, calculate log a = a0 therefore a = 10a0 b=a1 Residual Error Linear: y = ao + a1x S r e 2 yi ymodel yi ao a1 xi 2 2 Power: y = axb b 2 xi b 2 Sr e yi ymodel yi ax i 2 2 Exponential: y=aexb Sr e yi ymodel yi ae 2 2 Example X Y Ymodel 1 0.7 0.8 2 1.7 1.6 3 3.3 3.1 4 7.3 6.2 5 10.9 12.1 6 22.7 23.9 y = 0.407e 0.679x Given the following results, determine Sr. Strategy Strategy Calculate e2 = (yi – ymodel)2 for each (x,y) pair Determine Se2 = Sr Demonstration with Excel Y 1 2 3 4 5 6 0.7 1.7 3.3 7.3 10.9 22.7 25 20 15 y X 10 5 0 0 2 4 6 8 x See: 2012-L4-NonlinearRegressionExample.xlsx General Comments of Linear Regression You should be cognizant of the fact that there are theoretical aspects of regression that are of practical importance but are beyond the scope of this book Statistical assumptions are inherent in the linear least squares procedure General Comments of Linear Regression x has a fixed value; it is not random and is measured without error The y values are independent random variable and all have the same variance The y values for a given x must be normally distributed General Comments of Linear Regression The regression of y versus x is not the same as x versus y The error of y versus x is not the same as x versus y General Comments of Linear Regression The regression of y versus x is not the same as x versus y The error of y versus x is not the same as x versus y y-direction f(x) x-direction x Polynomial Regression One of the reasons you were presented with the theory behind linear regression was to allow you the insight behind similar procedures for higher order polynomials y = a0 + a1x mth - degree polynomial y = a0 + a1x + a2x2 +....amxm + e Polynomial Regression Sr yi a o a1xi a x ...... a x 2 2 i m 2 m i Based on the sum of the squares of the residuals Polynomial Regression Sr yi a o a1xi a x ...... a x 2 2 i m 2 m i 1. Take the derivative of the above equation with respect to each of the unknown coefficients: i.e. the partial with respect to a2 Sr 2 2 xi yi ao a1xi a2 xi2 ..... amxim a2 Polynomial Regression 2. These equations are set to zero to minimize Sr, i.e. minimize the error. 3. Set all unknowns values on the LHS of the equation. ao xi a1 xi3 a2 xi4 ..... am xi 2 m 2 xi yi 2 Polynomial Regression 4. This set of normal equations result in m+1 simultaneous equations which can be solved using matrix methods to determine a0, a1, a2......am Polynomial Regression n a o x i a1 x a y x a x a x a x y x a x a x a x y i 2 i o 2 i o 3 i 2 i 2 i 1 3 i 1 4 i 2 i 2 2 i i i Multiple Linear Regression A useful extension of linear regression is the case where y is a linear function of two or more variables y = ao + a1x1 + a2x2 We follow the same procedure y = ao + a1x1 + a2x2 + e Multiple Linear Regression For two variables, we would solve a 3 x 3 matrix in the following form: n x1i x2i x x x x 1i 2 1i 1i 2 i x x x x a 0 yi 1i 2 i a1 x1i yi 2 x y 2 i a 2 2 i i 2i [A] and {c}are clearly based on data given for x1, x2 and y to solve for the unknowns in {x}. Interpolation General formula for an n-th order polynomial y = a0 + a1x + a2x2 +....amxm For m+1 data points, there is one, and only one polynomial of order m or less that passes through all points Example: y = a0 + a1x fits between 2 points 1st order Linear Interpolation Temperature, C Density, kg/m3 0 999.9 5 1000.0 10 999.7 15 999.1 20 998.2 How would you approach estimating the density at 17 C? Temperature, C Density, kg/m3 0 999.9 5 1000.0 10 999.7 15 999.1 20 998.2 ??? 999.1 > r > 998.2 998.2 999.1 r T 15 20 998.2 999.1 r T 15 998.2 999.1 r 20 15 T 20 Assume a straight line between the known data. Then calculate the slope. 998.2 999.1 r 15 r 999.1 r 17 15 T T 17 20 Assuming this linear relationship is constant, the slope is the same between the unknown point and a known point. 998.2 999.1 r 15 T 17 998.2 999.1 r 999.1 r 20 15 17 15 T 20 Solve for r Therefore, the slope of one interval will equal the slope of the other interval. 998.2 999 .1 998.2 r 20 15 20 17 f x1 f x0 f1 x f xo x x0 x1 x0 Alternate interpretation f1 x a0 a1 x x0 the intercept is f(x0) the slope is a finite difference approx. of dy/dx true solution f(x) 1 2 smaller intervals provide a better estimate x true solution f(x) 1 2 Alternative approach would be to include a third point and estimate f(x) from a 2nd order polynomial. x true solution f(x) Alternative approach would be to include a third point and estimate f(x) from a 2nd order polynomial. x Lagrange Interpolating Polynomial n f n x Li x f xi i0 n Li x j0 ji x xj xi x j where P designates the “product of” The linear version of this expression is at n=1 Linear version: n=1 n f n x Li x f xi i 0 n Li x j 0 j i x xj xi x j x x1 x x0 f1 f x0 f x1 x0 x1 x1 x0 Your text shows you how to do n=2 (second order). What would third order be? n f n x Li x f xi i 0 n Li x j 0 j i x xj xi x j x x1 x x2 x x3 f3 f x0 x0 x1 x0 x2 x0 x3 ....... Note: x0 is not being subtracted from the constant term x n f n x Li x f xi i 0 n Li x j 0 j i x xj xi x j x x1 x x2 x x3 f3 f x0 x0 x1 x0 x2 x0 x3 ....... Note: x0 is not being subtracted from the constant term x or xi = x0 in the numerator or the denominator j= 0 n f n x Li x f xi i 0 n Li x j 0 j i x xj xi x j x x1 x x2 x x3 f3 f x0 x0 x1 x0 x2 x0 x3 x x0 x x2 x x3 f x1 x1 x0 x1 x2 x1 x3 ....... n f n x Li x f xi i 0 n Li x j 0 j i x xj xi x j x x1 x x2 x x3 f3 f x0 x0 x1 x0 x2 x0 x3 x x0 x x2 x x3 f x1 x1 x0 x1 x2 x1 x3 ....... Note: x1 is not being subtracted from the constant term x or xi = x1 in the numerator or the denominator j= 1 n f n x Li x f xi i 0 n Li x j 0 j i x xj xi x j x x1 x x2 x x3 f3 f x0 x0 x1 x0 x2 x0 x3 x x0 x x2 x x3 f x1 x1 x0 x1 x2 x1 x3 x x0 x x1 x x3 f x2 x2 x0 x2 x1 x2 x3 ...... Note: x2 is not being subtracted from the constant term x or xi = x2 in the numerator or the denominator j= 2 n f n x Li x f xi i 0 n Li x j 0 j i x xj xi x j x x1 x x2 x x3 f3 f x0 x0 x1 x0 x2 x0 x3 x x0 x x2 x x3 f x1 x1 x0 x1 x2 x1 x3 x x0 x x1 x x3 f x2 x2 x0 x2 x1 x2 x3 x x0 x x1 x x2 f x3 x3 x0 x3 x1 x3 x2 Note: x3 is not being subtracted from the constant term x or xi = x3 in the numerator or the denominator j= 3 Example Determine the density at 17o C using a 2nd order Lagrange Interpolating Polynomial 1000.5 Density 1000 999.5 999 998.5 998 0 5 10 15 Temp 20 25 Temperature, C Density, kg/m3 0 999.9 5 1000.0 10 999.7 15 999.1 20 998.2 Strategy Strategy Determine the number of data points needed 2nd Order – 3 points 3rd Order – 4 points Chose the data points for the formula Write out the formula without the data Add the data Solve Coefficients of an Interpolating Polynomial y = a0 + a1x + a2x2 +....amxm HOW CAN WE BE MORE STRAIGHT FORWARD IN GETTING VALUES? f x0 a0 a1 x0 a2 x02 f x1 a0 a1 x1 a2 x12 f x2 a0 a1 x2 a2 x22 This is a 2nd order polynomial. We need three data points. Plug the value of xi and f(xi) directly into equations. This gives three simultaneous equations to solve for a0 , a1 , and a2 Example Determine the density at 17o C using the method of “Coefficient of Interpolating Polynominals”. Base your solution on a 2nd order polynomial. 1000.5 Density 1000 999.5 999 998.5 998 0 10 20 Temp 30 Temperature, C Density, kg/m3 0 999.9 5 1000.0 10 999.7 15 999.1 20 998.2 Strategy Strategy Recognize that you are solving for a0, a1 and a2 for the formula y = a0 + a1x + a2x2 Determine the three points you need for the problem Recognize that the x-value associate with a0 is x0 = 1 Set up the following matrix 1 x1 1 x2 1 x3 x12 a0 y1 2 x2 a1 y2 x32 a2 y3 Spline Interpolation Our previous approach was to derive an nth order polynomial for n+1 data points. An alternative approach is to apply polynomials to subset of data points Such connecting polynomials are called spline functions Adaptation of drafting techniques Spline interpolation is an adaptation of the drafting technique of using a spline to draw smooth curves through a series of points Spline interpolation is an adaptation of the drafting technique of using a spline to draw smooth curves through a series of points Spline interpolation is an adaptation of the drafting technique of using a spline to draw smooth curves through a series of points Spline interpolation is an adaptation of the drafting technique of using a spline to draw smooth curves through a series of points Linear Splines f x f x0 m0 x x0 f x f x1 m1 x x1 x0 x x1 x1 x x2 f x f xn 1 mn 1 x xn 1 where f xi 1 f xi mi xi 1 xi xn 1 x xn Quadratic Spline a1 x 2 b1 x c1 Quadratic Spline a 2 x 2 b2 x c 2 Quadratic Spline a3 x 2 b3 x c3 Quadratic Spline a4 x 2 b4 x c4 Quadratic Spline a1 x 2 b1 x c1 a2 x 2 b2 x c2 a4 x 2 b4 x c4 a3 x 2 b3 x c3 APPROACH SHOW EXAMPLE PRESENT THEORY Example A well pumping at 250 gallons per minute has observation wells located at 15, 42, 128, 317 and 433 ft away along a straight line from the well.After three hours of pumping, the following drawdowns in the five wells were observed: 14.6, 10.7, 4.8,1.7 and 0.3 ft respectively. Derive equations of each quadratic spline. 16 Draw dow n (ft) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 100 200 300 Distanc e from w ell (ft) 400 500 Strategy Strategy ai 1 xi21 bi 1 xi 1 ci 1 f xi 1 ai xi21 bi xi 1 ci f xi 1 Determine how many segments 14.6 10.7 4.8 1.7 0.3 16 14 Draw dow n (ft) and equations you have Determine the two equations that go to each internal point Determine the equation that goes to each end point Determine the equations for the first derivatives at each internal point 15 42 128 317 433 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 100 200 300 Distanc e from w ell (ft) 400 500 What are the equations? a1x2 + b1x + c1 = y 16 Draw dow n (ft) 14 a2x2 + b2x + c2 = y 12 10 8 a3x2 + b3x + c3 = y 6 4 2 a4x2 + b4x + c4 = y 0 0 100 200 300 Distanc e from w ell (ft) 400 500 ai 1xi2 1 bi 1xi 1 ci 1 f xi 1 Solution ai xi2 1 bi xi 1 ci f xi 1 (42)2 a1 + 42b1 + c1 = 10.7 (42)2 a2 + 42 b2 + c2 = 10.7 16 Draw dow n (ft) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 Distanc e from w ell (ft) 15 42 128 317 433 14.6 10.7 4.8 1.7 0.3 ai 1xi2 1 bi 1xi 1 ci 1 f xi 1 Solution ai xi2 1 bi xi 1 ci f xi 1 16,384a2 + 128b2 + c2 = 4.8 16,384 a3 + 128 b3 + c3 = 4.8 16 Draw dow n (ft) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 Distanc e from w ell (ft) 15 42 128 317 433 14.6 10.7 4.8 1.7 0.3 ai 1xi2 1 bi 1xi 1 ci 1 f xi 1 Solution ai xi2 1 bi xi 1 ci f xi 1 16 Draw dow n (ft) 14 100,489a3 + 317b3 + c3 = 1.7 100,489a4 + 317b4 + c4 = 1.7 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 Distanc e from w ell (ft) 15 42 128 317 433 14.6 10.7 4.8 1.7 0.3 15 42 128 317 433 Solution (15)2a1 + 15 b1 + c1 = 14.6 14.6 10.7 4.8 1.7 0.3 187,489a4 + 433b4 + c4 = 0.3 16 14 Draw dow n (ft) Similarly, the equations include the end points 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 100 200 300 Distanc e from w ell (ft) 400 500 15 42 128 317 433 Solution 2ai 1xi 1 bi 1 2ai xi 1 b 14.6 10.7 4.8 1.7 0.3 The first derivative at the interior knots must be equal. 16 2a2 (128) + b2 = 2a3 (128) + b3 Draw dow n (ft) 2a1 (42) + b1 = 2a2 (42) + b2 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2a3 (317) + b3 = 2a4 (317) + b4 0 100 200 300 Distanc e from w ell (ft) 400 500 15 42 128 317 433 Solution 14.6 10.7 4.8 1.7 0.3 Addition the last condition a1 = 0 You should be able to set these equations into a matrix to solve for ai , bi, and ci for i = 1,3 ....end of problem Splines To ensure that the mth derivatives are continuous at the “knots”, a spline of at least m+1 order must be used 3rd order polynomials or cubic splines that ensure continuous first and second derivatives are most frequently used in practice Although third and higher derivatives may be discontinuous when using cubic splines, they usually cannot be detected visually and consequently are ignored. Splines The derivation of cubic splines is somewhat involved First illustrate the concepts of spline interpolation using second order polynomials. These “quadratic splines” have continuous first derivatives at the “knots” Note: This does not ensure equal second derivatives at the “knots” Quadratic Spline 1.The function must be equal at the interior knots. This condition can be represented as: ai 1xi21 bi 1xi 1 ci 1 f xi 1 note: we are referencing the same x and f(x) ai xi21 bi xi 1 ci f xi 1 Quadratic Spline ai 1xi2 1 bi 1xi 1 ci 1 f xi 1 ai xi2 1 bi xi 1 ci f xi 1 This occurs between i = 2, n Using the interior knots (n-1) this will provide 2n -2 equations. Quadratic Spline 2. The first and last functions must pass through the end points. This will add two more equations. a1x02 b1x0 c1 f x0 an xn2 bn xn cn f xn We now have 2n - 2 +2 = 2n equations. How many do we need? Quadratic Spline 3. The first derivative at the interior knots must be equal. This provides another n-1 equations for 2n + n-1 =3n -1. We need 3n 2ai 1xi 1 bi 1 2ai xi 1 b Quadratic Spline 4. Unless we have some additional information regarding the functions or their derivatives, we must make an arbitrary choice in order to successfully compute the constants. 5. Assume the second derivative is zero at the first point. The visual interpretation of this condition is that the first two points will be connected by a straight line. a1 = 0 Cubic Splines Third order polynomial Need n+1 = 3+1 = 4 intervals Consequently there are 4n unknown constants to evaluate What are these equations? f i x ai x 3 bi x 2 ci x di Cubic Splines The function values must be equal at the interior knots (2n -2) The first and last functions must pass through the end points (2) The first derivatives at the interior knots must be equal (n-1) The second derivatives at the interior knots must be equal (n-1) The second derivative at the end knots are zero (2) Cubic Splines The function values must be equal at the interior knots (2n -2) The first and last functions must pass through the end points (2) The first derivatives at the interior knots must be equal (n-1) The second derivatives at the interior knots must be equal (n-1) The second derivative at the end knots are zero (2) Previous Exam Question Given the following data, develop the simultaneous equations for a quadratic spline. Express your final answers in matrix form. 7.00 f(x) 0.50 4.60 1.50 3.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 f(x) x 1 4 6 7 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 0 1 2 3 4 x 5 6 7 8 (4, 4.6) 7.00 Interior knots: 16a1 + 4b1 + c1 = 4.6 16a2 + 4b2 + c2 = 4.6 6.00 5.00 f(x) 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 36a2 + 6b2 + c2 = 1.5 36a3 + 6b3 + c3 = 1.5 x x 1 4 6 7 f(x) 0.50 4.60 1.50 3.00 End conditions a1 + b1 + c1 = 0.5 49a3 + 7b3 + c3 = 3.0 First derivative continuous at interior knots 8a1 + b1 = 8a2 + b2 12a2 + b2 = 12a3 + b3 Extra equation a1 =0 Interior knots: 16a1 + 4b1 + c1 = 4.6 36a2 + 6b2 + c2 = 1.5 4 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 End conditions a1 + b1 + c1 = 0.5 49a3 + 7b3 + c3 = 3.0 First derivative cont. at interior knots 8a1 + b1 = 8a2 + b2 12a2 + b2 = 12a3 + b3 Extra equation a1 =0 16a2 + 4b2 + c2 = 4.6 36a3 + 6b3 + c3 = 1.5 0 0 0 0 16 4 1 0 36 6 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 1 0 0 12 1 0 0 b1 4.6 0 0 0 c1 4.6 0 0 0 a2 15 . 36 6 1 b2 15 . 0 0 0 c2 0.5 49 7 1 a3 3.0 0 0 0 b3 0 12 1 0 c3 0 0 0 SPECIAL NOTE On the surface it may appear that a third order approximation using splines would be inferior to higher order polynomials. Consider a situation where a spline may perform better: A generally smooth function undergoes an abrupt change in a region of interest. The abrupt change induces oscillations in interpolating polynomials. In contrast, the cubic spline provides a much more acceptable approximation Specific Study Objectives Understand the fundamental difference between regression and interpolation and realize why confusing the two could lead to serious problems Understand the derivation of linear least squares regression and be able to assess the reliability of the fit using graphical and quantitative assessments. Specific Study Objectives Know how to linearize data by transformation Understand situations where polynomial, multiple and nonlinear regression are appropriate Understand the general matrix formulation of linear least squares Understand that there is one and only one polynomial of degree n or less that passes exactly through n+1 points Specific Study Objectives Realize that more accurate results are obtained if data used for interpolation is centered around and close to the unknown point Recognize the liabilities and risks associated with extrapolation Understand why spline functions have utility for data with local areas of abrupt change