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PURPOSE
To familiarize attendees with the need to determine
sources of instability within a village and apply economic
development activities that are relevant to local
communities and enduring in nature.
CPT Micah Baker
Mr. John Agoglia
CPT Rob Snyder
CW3 Chad Machiela
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Terminal Learning Objectives
TLO #1: Attendees familiar with how CERP and local SOF
economic development activities were not conducive to long
term stability.
TLO #2: Attendees familiar with the lessons learned from past
CERP and economic development and familiar with the
recommended principles of CERP and economic development
within VSO, while conducting VSO in transition and beyond.
TLO #3: Attendees familiar with how the District Stability
Framework (DSF) can assist SOF in determining Sources of
Instability (SOIs), create tactical design to address the SOI’s,
used for coordinating civilian development support.
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Terminal Learning Objectives
TLO #4: Attendees familiar with how to leverage DSF training in
PMT.
TLO #5: Attendees familiar with how to use Micro-Grants in
support of VSO economic development.
TLO #6: Attendees familiar with a Micro-Grant vignette that
demonstrates how micro-grants can be applied within VSO.
TLO #7: Attendees familiar with how NPS Core Lab Methodology
can assist in mapping key human terrain and achieving key
stability effects.
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Development as a Source of Instability
American counterinsurgency efforts have been based on three
basic principles since the 1960’s – clear, hold, and build.
In the build phase, Americans tend to do what they have always
done best: build huge infrastructure projects.
- Some success, but overall failure.
The faulty application of development, expectation
management, and project management fuels instability.
- Wrong solution to the right problem.
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Development as a Source of Instability
Wrong solutions to the correct problems:
Misunderstood and unused technology.
Paying for projects that communities were traditionally
responsible for.
Wasting resources on large projects with little to no payoff.
Pushing for projects not needed.
Lack of oversight for projects.
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Development to Address Instability
Correct solutions to the correct problems:
Proposals and procedures are mutually consistent.
Must have thorough knowledge of community values.
Consider the whole community.
Stated in terms understandable to community.
Community must be active partner.
Project should begin with community resources.
Earn the respect of the community.
Don’t be indispensable in the process.
Coordination is essential when multiple agencies involved.
- Ward Goodenough, Cooperation in Change, 1963
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Why a
District Stability Framework ?
• There is no standard assessment & planning process
across stabilization actors
• Isolated planning results in COIN actors focusing on
core competencies not stability
• There is no standardized method for monitoring impact
of activities towards stability goals
• Sources of stability are not reinforced
• Sources of instability are often not targeted
• The local population is often not the focal point
COIN as a Stability Operation
• As a counterinsurgent, what is your plan to
defeat:
– Tribal violence
– Sectarian violence
– Criminal violence
• These are symptoms of instability, not
insurgency
Sources of Instability
Sources of instability are local factors that:
1. Decrease support for GIRoA
2. Increase support for Anti-Government Elements (AGEs)
3. Disrupt the normal functioning of society
District Stability Framework
A joint civil-military process developed by USAID-OTI (Office of Transition
Initiatives) and the COIN Training Center-Afghanistan.
Provides the common inter-agency program management framework,
language, method and tools that enables unity of effort and coordination.
Is optimized for tactical commanders and planners, field grade military
officers and senior enlisted personnel, agency field program officers and
GIRoA officials who plan, design and implement activities at district level.
Introduction to the
District Stability Framework (DSF)
Situational
Awareness
Monitoring &
Evaluation
Analysis
Design
DSF Roadmap
ASCOPE/
PMESII
Cultural
Matrix
M &E
Matrix
Factors
Matrix
SOI
Analysis
Tactical
Stability
Matrix –Pt1
Activity
Design
W’sheet
Tactical
Stability
Matrix –Pt2
Stability
Indicators
Local
Perceptions
Sync
Matrix
SITUATIONAL
AWARENESS
ANALYSIS
DESIGN
MONITORING &
EVALUATION
Situational Awareness
Four Filters
1) Operating Environment
ASCOPE/PMESII
2) Cultural Environment
Cultural Matrix
3) Local Perceptions
Perception Data
4) Stability/Instability
Dynamics
Factors Matrix
Analysis
1) Identify SOIs
SOI Analysis Matrix
2) Identify Causes
Tactical Stability
Matrix
3) Develop Objective
Tactical Stability
Matrix
4) Determine Impact
Indicators and Data Sources
Tactical Stability
Matrix
Causes
• To identify systemic causes, ask yourself:
 What circumstances led to community perceptions?
 What circumstances allow the SOI to continue?
 What conditions prevent the SOI from being addressed?
Design
1) Design Activities
2) Identify Output Indicators
and Data Sources
3) Synchronize Activities
Tactical Stability Matrix &
Activity Design Worksheet
Tactical Stability Matrix
Synchronization Matrix
Monitoring & Evaluation
1) Monitor and Evaluate Output
M&E Matrix
2) Monitor and Evaluate
Impact Against the Objective and
M&E Matrix
Systemic Causes
3) Monitor and Evaluate
Overall Stability
Stability Indicators
Impact vs. Output
Impact
How will I know if the proper change
in the environment has been
achieved?
Output
How can I confirm that the proposed
activity is progressing or completed?
Increased presence of police in a village
Number of police trained
Increased public use of the road
Number of road miles improved
Increased production of licit crops
Number of crop substitution shuras held
Increased number of girls being educated
Number of schools built for girls
Overall Stability Indicators
1. District Government
Recognition
2. Civilian Security
3. Bazaar Activity
4. ANSF Presence
5. Freedom of Movement
6. Perception of Governance
7. Perception of Security
Questions/Contact
John Agoglia
E-mail– jagoglia@idsinternational.com
Cell PH# 703-314-3683
Office PH# 703-504-2117
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FACILITATE A SHURA
UTILIZE LOCAL WORKERS
ASK AFGHANS WHAT THEY NEED
DON’T FORCE PROJECTS
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Development Lessons Learned
Learn and understand how the village solves problems.
Utilize projects to gain trust and demonstrate commitment to
the Village.
Understand the human terrain.
Make sure all tribes in a village are receiving a benefit from
projects (or be intentional if you choose to exclude a tribe).
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Development Lessons Learned
Clearly identify desired second and third order effects of all
projects.
All projects identified, nominated, planned, resourced,
supervised, and executed by locals under the supervision of
locals.
Long term sustainability.
Help facilitate Afghan solutions.
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Development Lessons Learned
Make sure you plan for economic development and understand
the numerous resources available to help facilitate
development.
Be creative in helping to build human capital in your area.
Regularly assess your development activities and adjust as
required to maximize your desired effects.
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QUESTIONS?
CPT Rob Snyder
robby.snyder@ahqb.soc.mil
805-540-8710
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CERP Micro-Grants In
Support of VSO
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Micro-Grant Process:
Step-by-Step (1 of 2)
• Identify village business owner/service provider.
• Complete application (MAAWS-A, pg. 153). Pay attention to detail to
reduce delays in legal review and funding.
• Submit to SOTF S9 to process for legal review, Commander’s application
approval, PR&C submission, entry into CIDNE, and Commander’s approval
for ADR.
• SOTF S9 forwards complete and approved packets to CJSOTF-A J9 CERP
Accountant for QA and funding.
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Micro-Grant Process:
Step-by-Step (2 of 2)
• Once funding is obligated, SOTF S9 provides team with funded PR&C. The
team takes the PR&C and the approved application to the Disbursing
Office to receive funds.
• Utilize SOTF S9 or a trusted agent to purchase goods with Micro-Grant
funds if possible. Handing over cash should generally not be the first
course of action.
• Supervise business or service to ensure intent is being met. Update CIDNE
accordingly.
• Clear funds like all other CERP or Bulk Fund draws.
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Micro-Grant Vignette: South
A SOF Team utilized the services of a local diesel mechanic to repair a well
pump at the embed site. They learned that he had owned a shop, but INS
had destroyed it and stolen his tools and equipment. The mechanic was a
supporter of VSO and GIRoA. The team suggested he ask the DG for
assistance in re-building his mechanic shop. After the District
Development Shura vouched for his character, a Micro-Grant Application
was completed and submitted to the SOTF. After approval, a trusted agent
was sent to the city to procure a list of tools and equipment for the shop
in accordance with the amount of the grant. As a condition of receiving
the grant, the mechanic had to prepare the shop and ensure it was secure
before he could receive the goods. Once up and running, the mechanic
was able to provide a community service and earn a living for his family.
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Micro-Grant Vignette: Southeast
A SOF Team damaged a man’s shop during a clearing operation. During
discussions with the owner and village elders regarding compensation, the
team determined this could be used as an opportunity to build relations in
an area planned for VSO expansion. The team determined that helping
the man repair his shop and re-stock it with merchandise was the
preferred COA for two reasons. First, paying the owner cash for battle
damage did not guarantee he would resume business in the community,
thereby damaging the local economy. Second, working through the MicroGrant process allowed the team to develop a positive relationship with
village leadership and residents, who later stated that they would support
VSO and ALP.
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Farmers’ Cooperative
Micro-Grants
SOTF-W
Bala Baluk, Pusht-e Rod, Khake
Safed Districts
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CERP Micro-Grants Defined
The Micro-Grant program expands the flexibility of CERP and
authorizes commanders to provide cash, equipment, tools, or
other material support to small businesses lacking available
credit or financial resources.
- MAAWS-A, Chapter 9, Micro-Grants
Why?
It’s all targeting
You can’t hit what you can’t see
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Sources of Instability
Afghanistan’s wheat price crisis represents a strategic opportunity for CFSOCC-A to
make Village Stability Operations (VSO) more relevant to its target population.
Unless rural Afghans are provided an alternative, the wheat crisis will force many
families into deep debt bondage to powerbrokers and narco-traffickers who often
demand poppy cultivation as a condition of lending.
CFSOCC-A J2 Production Wheat Price Rise Presents VSO Opportunity
With the lack of water for our fields, our crops
did not produce much. But now is the time to
begin cultivating our fields and we are lacking
supply of seeds that we were promised to plant
in our fields. The government keeps talking
about producing food supplies in our fields but
without the seeds to plant, we have nothing.
Atmospheric Report 17OCT11
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As an additional argument to encourage development of community-based seed
production cooperatives, CAT 652 conducted a KLE with the emerging leadership of
Sar Puzeh Village, to discuss the Wheat Seed Distribution Program. Despite earlier
projections that the program would increase Sar Puzeh support for GoA and
Afghan-run programs, the program is currently angering residents due to its
susceptibility to corruption. A large group of seed recipients, from both of the
major sub-tribes in Sar Puzeh, stated that they were unable to get seeds because a
district government leader named Haji Bazid is controlling the allocation of seeds,
distributing only to members of a corrupt patronage network.
VSCC-W SITREP 30OCT11
GOA wheat seed distribution program decreases perception of effective governance:
•Encourages dependence upon government handouts rather than self-supporting
communities
•Seeds generally go to landowners living in cities, rather than to farmers sharecropping
in the villages, resulting in seeds sold in the bazaar for profit
•PGOV,DGOV,PCOP,DCOP and other officials find it difficult to refuse the temptation to
direct distribution to friends and other selected community members rather than
those most in need. The Taliban then point to this graft as typical for the Afghan
Government
•Areas do not receive enough seeds to satisfy all requirements
•Transportation costs overwhelm poorer provincial offices, lessening available seeds
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Design
Cooperation in Change, An Anthropological
Approach to Community Development
Want assessment
Need assessment
Felt need
Observed need*
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DSF Design
Tactical Stability Matrix &
Activity Design Worksheet
1) Design Activities
2) Identify Output Indicators
and Data Sources
3) Synchronize Activities
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Tactical Stability Matrix
Synchronization Matrix
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The National Grange of the Patrons of Husbandry
•Formed in the 1860s as an educational and social organization
•Transformed into a political organization as the voting power
increased enough to apply pressure to force governmental
assistance
•Cooperative purchasing lowered prices for equipment
•Educational component increased efficiency
•Cooperative storage held crops viable longer for optimum
sale prices
•Pooling of savings protected members from mercenary
lenders
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SOTF-W elements provided fertilizer, training, and high-resistance wheat seed to farmers
selected by the Khake Safed, Bala Baluk, and Pusht-e Rod Farmers’ Cooperatives for
establishment of seed production farms. These farmers agreed to each set aside one jerib of
land for seed production rather than wheat cultivation, and to sell those seeds to their
fellow cooperative members at discounted prices
KEY ELEMENTS:
•Farmers were selected by their peers and fellow members of their cooperatives, to
increase normative pressure to participate in accordance with the agreements
•Participation was made formally normative. Selected farmers participated in public
shuras and attended training as prerequisites to grant issue
•Participating farmers agreed to be overseen by the district DAIL, to prevent default and
to tie community efforts to district governance
•Materials were purchased by the DAIL, assisted by ISAF advisors to ensure fair prices.
Farmers were issued necessary seeds and fertilizer, not cash, to prevent graft
•Training and issue were public events to ensure transparency and increase normative
pressure to produce the seeds as agreed upon rather than default
•Farmers submitted “applications” which provided initial social mapping of networks
directly influenced through the program.
•Sustainment training is provided via MISO radio broadcasts
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INPUTS:
OUTPUTS:
Seed
Metric Ton
$720.00
DAP Fertilizer
50 Kilo Bag
$68.00
Urea Fertilizer
50 Kilo Bag
$55.00
Seed cleaning & Inoculants
Ton
$80.00
Seed quality wheat
Kilo
$0.53
$4,900 per district
•Cohesive subgroups of farmers beholden to their communities,
resistant to both Taliban and corrupt government officials through
their self-sufficiency and bloc influence
•Communities with access to wheat seed produced by their selected
peers, free from negative influence of current GOA program
•Sociocultural maps of pro-GOA community members, identified
networks to leverage in support of local governance
•Increased perception of effective district governance, as DAIL’s act as
honest brokers to monitor performance
•Vehicle for additional agricultural training
•Radio broadcasts providing sustainment training benefit all
community members and further advertise program (building
legitimacy and increasing normative pressure to perform)
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Farmers' Cooperative Microgrant Application
Application
Date:
First Name:
Middle Name:
Gender:
Last Name:
Date of Birth:
Maiden/Tribal
Name:
Place of Birth:
Nickname/Alias:
Ethnicity:
Nationality:
Hair Color:
Passport #:
Eye Color:
Passport
Country:
Passport Issue
Date:
Passport Exp
Date:
Scars/Disfigure
ments:
Marital Status:
Tattoos:
Height (cm):
Weight (kg):
Spouse's Tribe:
Cell Phone:
Full Name
Taskera #:
Email Address:
ACTIVE FARMING LIST (RELATIVES)
List relatives that will assist you in developing this seed production farm
Father's Name
Village
Occupation
Cellphone
VEHICLES
Make
Model
Year
Color
N/A
ACTIVE FARMING LIST (FRIENDS & NEIGHBORS)
List friends or neighbors (not related to you) that will assist you in developing this farm
WEAPONS
Type
Plate #
Total
Serial
Name
PurchaseFull
Date
CurrentFather's
LocationName
of Weapon
Village
Occupation
Cellphone
CUSTOMER LIST (BUSINESS)
Who will be the primary customer base for your seed production farm?
Full Name
Father's Name
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Village
Occupation
Cellphone
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Potential bridges
between groups
Members of the Farah Farmers’
Cooperatives Selected to Receive MicroGrants
Tribal Ties of Members of the Farah
Farmers’ Cooperatives Selected to
Receive Micro-Grants
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Community Network Directly Influenced
by the Farah Farmers’ Cooperative
Microgrants
SNA assists the commander by rapidly identifying
high value influence nodes to maximize effective
employment of resources, in this case taking
advantage of the heavy Nurzai demographic,
targeting members with multiple solidarity influence
(secondary association through marriage, business,
and governance)
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Development to Address Instability
Correct solutions to the correct problems:
Proposals and procedures are mutually consistent.
Must have thorough knowledge of community values.
Consider the whole community.
Stated in terms understandable to community.
Community must be active partner.
Project should begin with community resources.
Earn the respect of the community.
Don’t be indispensable in the process.
Coordination is essential when multiple agencies involved.
- Ward Goodenough, Cooperation and Change, 1963
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Further Information
chad.machiela@ahqb.soc.mil
Naval Postgraduate School, Common Operating Research
Environment (CORE) Laboratory, Enabler Expo
Cooperation in Change: An Anthropological Approach to
Community Development. Ward Goodenough. Russell Sage
Foundation, 1963.
Software:
ORA, CASOS, Dr. Kathleen Carley (free download)
UCINET, Harvard Analytics (shareware)
Pajek, (free download)
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www.stabilityinstitute.com
Contact information:
micah.baker@ahqb.soc.mil
(910) 396-1664
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