Forecasting process:
Severe Weather
Early warning
Strive to ensure that every person or organization at
risk
1. Receives the information
2. Understands the information
3. BELIEVES the information
4. Personalizes the risk
5. Make correct decisions
6. Respond in a timely manner
Early warning
Effective early warning should be:
•Short, concise, understandable and actionable
•What, where, when, why, how to respond
Should be presented in several different formats –
text-graphics-color coded categories-audio; should
include specific actions for people to take in response
to the event.
Process
Identifying Severe Weather
UKMO Model
5-7 Day Lead time
NOAA Model
5-7 Day Lead time
Unified Model
24 Hour fine scale lead
time
Web-based sources: QuickScat
5-7 Days: Issue an Advisory
24 Hour pictorial view of
upcoming Severe weather
>100mm in
24hour
Keith Moir – Meteorologist –
Cape Town Weather Office
Process: Current
Issuing and disseminating
Warning
Issuing of Warning
Distribution list
Desktop
Warning
Posted on the Internet
Radio: KFM, Cape Talk, Tygerberg,
CCFM, Voice of the Cape and many
others
Television
Telephone: Direct to Forecaster
Newspaper: Burger, Cape Times, Son,
Argus, Local newspapers
Telephone: Recorded messageVodacom Service
Process: Current
Monitoring and Amending
warnings
Old Tropical
Cyclone - Favio
Satellite images
Cold
Front
Very
Cold Air
Mass
Keith Moir – Meteorologist –
Cape Town Weather Office
Extra
Tropical
Cyclone Gamede
Thunderstorm
Thunderstorm
Fog-Aviation
Danger
Thunderstorm
Fog-Aviation
Danger
High Resolution
Radar
Lightning
detection
Lightning
Detection
strikes
De Aar
Weather
RADAR
Cape Town
Weather
RADAR
Super impose
RADAR and
Lightning
Detection
High likelihood of
large hail
Severe Bottom
storm
Analysis of Routine observations
Surface
Upper air
Feedback from Disaster Managers
and affected people
Warning Updates issued regularly until threat has passed
Other Tools
Webcams
Independent Weather stations
Process: Current
After Event
Keith Moir – Meteorologist –
Cape Town Weather Office
Any follow-up weather
Rescue mission conditions
Post-impact assessment: Meteorological
Aspects
Keith Moir – Meteorologist –
Cape Town Weather Office
New Severe Weather Alert System
New Severe Weather Alert System
New Severe Weather Alert System
New Severe Weather Alert System
Way Forward:
1. Re-define warning
criteria in conjunction
with Disaster
Management structures.
2. Educate People-Risks,
Adequate Preparedness,
3. Keep abreast with
Modern TechnologyDissemination of
warnings
4. Keep abreast with
advancements in
Meteorology-,
Climatology research
South African Flash Flood Guidance System
Delineation of
River Basins
Will Be Discussed Next
Thank You For Your Time
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